Roy Halladay is not the answer for the Sox
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 2:37 PM EDT
83 comments
I hope everyone knows this by now, but Roy Halladay should not be crossing Theo Epstein's mind over this trade deadline. Watching this recent skid by the Red Sox, the issue has been solely based on the offense. Adam LaRoche is a good pickup, but the Sox need an everyday power bat. Yes, Roy Halladay would certainly help make the best starting pitching in baseball better, but the Red Sox have needs elsewhere. J.D. Drew is not producing at all, and neither has David Ortiz. The Sox need someone to provide some help offfensively, whether it is at DH or in right field. Also, the Blue Jays asking price is way too high. Boston cannot afford to give up Buchholz, and other major prospects. It just doesn't make sense. Hopefully, come July 31, the Red Sox management will be thinking about getting some bats, not Roy Halladay.
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"The Sox need someone to provide some help offfensively,"
1,1,+1
It would not hurt to also get a catcher who might be able to throw someone out at second once in a while.
by NG on Jul 24, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who do you want?
and what should we give-up? Saying, “The Sox should get someone better.” is fine, but not very useful. There just are not many players available that provide any kind of upgrade for us. Our best hope is that our guys break out of this prolonged slump.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jul 24, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This has been talked about
… a lot.
Most people agree that Halladay, while yes is a good player, isn’t necessary for us with our pitching staff the way it is right now.
However, I disagree with you on Ortiz, check how he’s done recently, he’s raised his average from from .186 to .228 since the start of June, he’s hit 11 HR since then and has has 15 RBIs just this month. His production has gotten back on track.
LaRoche, if he plays 3-4 times a week can definitely be a productive hitter in this lineup against righties.
I’m leaning towards thinking the Sox won’t make any more big deals, maybe another bullpen arm but that’s about it. The problem with our offense isn’t who’s in it, the issue is just that most of them are slumping right now. They’ll pull out of it.
Plus any decent impact bat (I assume by that you mean one of the V-Mart, Agonz type) would probably cost us at least Buchholz anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 24, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like someone went checking for stats to back up his perceived thoughts.
Papi’s been great since June 1, conveniently a year and day after the original injury that may have caused all his troubles.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need Halladay.
The Red Sox want to win now, I think we all want to win now. Make the trade as long as it does not involve (Bard), he is the real keeper. Bucholtz is still not garnered to be an ace. If we get Halladay we WIN NOW, and NOW is always more important than the future.
by NESPORTS on Jul 24, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If we get Halladay, we MIGHT win now.
And NOW is only more important than the future NOW. Shortsightedness leads to years of being inconsequential.
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now is never more important than the future (barring an apocalyptic situation).
This year there’s only 1 trophy to win – we could win many more than that in the next decade, which may be what we’re sacrificing if we go after Doc. We all want to win now, but we can win many more championships by keeping the prospects we’d have to give up.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the pitching staff we have NOW is good enough to win it all NOW. I think the pitching depth we have NOW in the pros and in the minors is good enough to win it all IN THE FUTURE.
If we get Halladay our pitching staff is good enough to win it all NOW. I think the depth we won’t have after trading for Halladay is NOT good enough to win it all IN THE FUTURE.
We don’t need him, our rotation is fine. I don’t think Wake is really hurt, I think they’re just giving him a couple weeks off because of his age, which is fine as long as Buch can pitch adequately enough.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 24, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WTF
This is one of the most moronic things I’ve ever read. Sorry…but yeah. Halladay pitches once every five days. That’s it. That’s IT. He does not get us a championship now, necessarily. He gives us an excellent chance to win a game every fifth day.
by Bloggy on Jul 24, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If thats the most moronic thing you have ever read, you must be Steven Hawkins.
by NESPORTS on Jul 24, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well…I have no idea what “still not garnered” is supposed to mean. And to assert that Doc Halladay equals instant championship and worth pillaging our farm system is surrendering to hype. Our problem is that we’ve been scoring about a run a game in recent memory. Halladay loses 2 – 1 just as well as any other pitcher. Ask Jay fans.
by Bloggy on Jul 24, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s always nice to see Winnipeg get some free publicity in a major U.S. city. As a lifelong resident I can tell you that it doesn’t snow as much as you think, it does get as cold as you think and we are the Slurpee capital of the World. That’s right, Slurpees. We drink ’em all winter long as well.
Most importantly, the Red Sox don’t need Halladay at his current asking price. I am pretty sure somehow he will wind up on the MFY. They will probably promise to take Vernon Wells’ contract off the Blue Jays hands. I hate the Yankees so much.
I have spent most of my life bracing for loss. At some point, the indifferent steamroller of history will flatten you. So why bother? Why try?
by Dukestreetking on Jul 26, 2009 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
-cricket chirps-
Joke made no sense.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 25, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll explain
The guy said “you must be Steven Hawkins”, the person he should have said was “Steven Hawking”, notable genius, but instead he said “Steven Hawkins”, random dude on google profiler.
by Gnick on Jul 26, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, no, not your joke. I got your's.
I didn’t get HIS joke – if you click the “up” button on my comment, it’ll zoom up to his comment. The point was, why can’t Hawking have read stupid stuff? Is he physically unable to read “moronic” literature?
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 26, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I simply decided to ignore the dig, as yeah…it simply made no sense.
by Bloggy on Jul 27, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Future vs now
We can’t give up Buchholz, he could help us win multiple world series in the future, while as Halladay could probably only give us one this year or next year. You can’t give up your future for immediate success ( which we could easily have without halladay anyways).
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you plan on getting a “big bat” for free? If you do not want to trade prospects how will we get this bat that you are advocating?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jul 24, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FA?
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but-
have you seen this year’s FA list? Bleak might be an understatement.
by vlock1 on Jul 27, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh
that is rough.
Once again, more informed.
by jkeough on Jul 27, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh.
I want Crawford, but it’d take a brain fart from the Rays to happen. Ankiel and Byrd could be options…
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 27, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about?
Rich Harden
Rafael Soriano
Jack Wilson
Also is it strange that of all those options Wake is one of the MOST likely to get picked up.
Once again, more informed.
by jkeough on Jul 27, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not contract options, I mean they'd be something for the Sox to look at.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 29, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every other team we deal with wants Bucholtz in the deal, which means if we ever want any other great player we will have to give him up eventually.
by NESPORTS on Jul 24, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or we could just wait till players become FA...
Or, here’s a shocker, DEVELOP THEM. Buch could very well surpass Doc – it would take an extraordinary effort, but he could.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which "great" players are you talking about?
The only one being shopped right now is Halladay—and he’ll cost Buchholz plus 2-3 top prospects.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 24, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don’t neccesarily need a " big bat" but we do need someone to play some games in place of drew, especially when he hurts his back which we all know is coming. I’m not saying to go out and trade for an all-star, but we could get another solid part time player like we did with LaRoche. They only gave up some midlevel prospects for him, why not go that route again?
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What we're asking from you is to NAME a player.
Also, could you and NESPORTS use the reply button please? Makes it easier to tell who you’re talking to.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 24, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your sarcastic tone isn’t appreciated.
by NESPORTS on Jul 24, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There wasn't really any sarcasm there that I could see.
He wants a name. If you’re going to suggest a trade, more than basic vagueries (IE: “A bat”) are needed.
Who’s the bat?
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 24, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This.
I was being sarcastic. A was being a bit of an ass, but only because I’m tired of people constantly complaining and not finding a solution.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 25, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see you just joined us. Don’t take offense to anything anyone says here. We call each other and our ideas stupid all the time and then enjoy ourselves in the game thread like it never happened. We just like to debate. It’s hard to debate when we aren’t sure if your post is a new thought or in reply to another. It’s why the reply button is there, organizes the debate. Welcome.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 24, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Names
Ok, how about mark teahen or jeremy hermida? They both wouldn’t take much to get ( especially hermida), and could provide some production.
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There really isn't room, unless you move someone on the roster
Hermida is an awful defensive OF, with eh on-base skills and little power. Teahen is having his second-best hitting year (.799 OPS). He also is a minus glove in both the IF and OF. In the IF, Teahen’s primary position is 3B, the Sox have Youk, Lowell, and LaRoche.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 24, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outfielder
Well, it’s not like Drew is doing anything that shows he should be playing every day. Teahen can hit the ball, hermida is an ok hitter, but both are doing more than Drew this season.
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drew is a consistently good fielding OF, and had numbers much better than either of them until this last mega-slump.
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drew
True, but he still needs to have some days off, and it would be nice to have a solid player such as teahen filling in and producing.
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't give you that Teahen is a solid fill-in.
The only guys I can think of seem to be team-controlled players on the Astros unlikely to be traded.
If the Brewers were further out, I’d suggest Mike Cameron, but they’re not.
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teahen
He’s batting close to .300 and brings some to an offence, I think he’s a solid fill-in
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.799 OPS is nothing special.
And again, a bad glove.
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see Cameron as all that much better
He’s 36, has a higher contract, lower batting average, slightly better OPS, more power, but Mark Teahen last year in right field had a .990 fielding percentence, which was better than Cameron’s in center
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I'm going to avoid sarcasm as much as possible here:
First off, fielding percentage sucks. It only counts errors, which are decided by a scorer. That, and it values defense at every position the same – like you tried to do by comparing a CF and a corner OF. A better stat to use here is UZR, which is available on FanGraphs, and gives us a better idea of fielding ability. To show you how it’s better, I’ll compare Teahen and Cameron:
Cameron’s career UZR/150 (average UZR over 150 games) in CF is 5.0
Teahen’s career UZR/150 in RF is -0.2
[Positive = above average, negative = below average]
There are also issues with using batting average to judge players – OPS is better, but one of the best ways is wOBA (weighted On Base Average), which can be approximated as (1.7*OBP+SLG)/3. It’s better because it gives more value to OBP, which has been proven to be more important. This stat is also available on FanGraphs (you might want to bookmark it – if you are going to stick around here, you’ll be using it a lot, most likely). To compare the same players:
Cameron’s career wOBA is .347, .357 this year.
Teahen’s career wOBA is .332, .350 this year (second highest of his career).
[League average wOBA is about .350 – it was designed to be on the same scale as OBP. If you think of what’s considered a good, average, and bad OBP, you’ll have about the same numbers for wOBA.]
Thank you for actually suggesting a player though. I hope you become a regular contributing member around here.
Fangraphs pages for Cameron and Teahen:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4511&position=3B/OF
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 25, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Bat but who and where?
I agree that a middle of the order bat but would provide the offense a boost, but they way the roster is configured, they would either need to make another corresponding move or create a hole elsewhere. C, 1B, SS and 3B seem like the great opportunities. A best guess on who can be had, who would be the odd man out and what challenges it could create:
C – VMart (Kottaras) – Would be a great acquisition but at what cost? You could play him some at 1B but he’s not IRod behind the plate. Can he or Tek catch Wake when he’s back?
1B – Gonzo (Lowell?) – Love the bat. However, you either deal Lowell (any takers?) or he becomes a very expensive once a week player. I think Gonzalez makes more sense in the off season when/if LaRoche hits free agency.
SS – Wilson (Green?) – Defensive upgrade but does he help the offense?
3B – Rolen (Lowell?) – See Gonzo.
Halladay at the right price would be a tremendous acquisition. However, I’m OK with the Sox standing pat and using those resources to trade for Gonzalez in the off season.
by mg050369 on Jul 24, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Major Bats
I don’t see any of those guys getting traded to the Sox, especially not Martinez or Gonzo, those trades could happen in the off-season. I agree, standing pat might be a good idea, but the way they’re playing right now, there needs to be a little spark in the lineup every now and then. That’s why I think going for a Mark Teahen type player could work.
by youkk20 on Jul 24, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly think VMart is very possible.
I see Cleveland getting desperate and lowering the price as the deadline gets closer and closer.
by USG on Jul 24, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
Desperate for what exactly?
His way below market option for next year? Or desperate to make the Sox better?
I think its a case of you offer Bucholz you get V-Mart, you don’t offer Bucholz they keep V-Mart.
by Ohpityme on Jul 25, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desperate to get youth for him.
I don’t think they expect to do much next year, or they wouldn’t be taking offers on either. I guess they could hold out for draft picks when he leaves via free agency, but otherwise he’s largely going to be wasted value.
by USG on Jul 25, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starting pitching
Is the greatest strength of Bostons, they most definately do not need Halladay especially considering that what it takes to get him would be the same as what it will take to get Adrian Gonzalez or V-Mart who both fill an actual position of need.
by Ohpityme on Jul 25, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Forget VMart
He’s 30 and a FA after next year. Theo would never trade top prospects for a player like that. Also, he’s pretty bad behind the plate. Gonzalez is different. I could see the Sox giving up something to get him, assuming he was available.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 25, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna happen
VMart’s gonna take too much to get, it’s not going to happen for the sox.
by youkk20 on Jul 25, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe we need to wait for the offseason to fix some of our offensive problems
I think this year is every transitional – I am not saying I have the answers to these problems…but I think hard decisions need to be made this winter
Smoltz and Penny come to mind – this bought Buch and other minor league players a year to develop pressure free. I have to imagine the Sox hope the pitching comes from within for 2010.
Maybe, this winter through trades and free agency we should look at the following positions for long term replacements/solutions Is the current team good enough for next year to get to the post season???
Obvious needs/upgrades for next season:
Catcher
3rd Base
Shortstop
Designated Hitter
This would mean eating Lowell and Ortiz contracts – we are already eating Lugo’s – I know Ortiz has picked it up and he willl most likely be back next year -probably along with Lowell (due to the money they are owed). But, are they the answer for 2010?
I do wonder if the Sox could make upgrades (younger and healtheir) would they do it for long term….even if it means eating money…the question has to be asked if Papi and Lowelll both scuffle next year will the season be difficult? And, would the ownership be willing to part with Lowell, Ortiz and Tek for a whole new look…not to mention Jed Lowrie – is he the answer a SS or will we continue to struggle at that position
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
by Dave D on Jul 25, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Already on record about Lowrie.
Youk can play 3B if we acquire a good 1B. Tek will be a stopgap until one of the kids in the minors comes up, or we acquire someone else. And Papi should be fine for the rest of this year and next, assuming the eye issue really was the problem.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 25, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just thinking
Youk belongs at 1b and I think the positions I mentioned above all have question marks that need to be addressed -
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
by Dave D on Jul 26, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He isn’t bad at third though. His career UZR/150 at 3B (over 180 games, 147 starts) is 9.6. At 1B (452 games, 410 starts) it is 5.9. Just saying his defense is not an issue at 3B should we want to go ahead and get a good hitting 1B (not that we should part with too much). I think a stopgap between Lowell’s leaving the team and Lars moving up to the big show needs to be found.
Ortiz is back I’m pretty sure, he should be fine through the end of his contract.
I think Lowrie can be our everyday SS, we just need to be patient with him like we should be with every prospect.
1B/3B and catcher I think are our only legitimate needs. Lowell isn’t much fun to watch anymore since he’s been playing hurt for like a year now. I’m glad Tek signed on and he is producing much more than I thought he would but he is getting old and isn’t throwing out runners.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 26, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I wouldn't mind seeing Kott get more playing time as the season progresses.
Lowell leaving and Lars might dovetail, if you think about it. Lowell’s signed through next season, and Lars was originally supposed to have a shot at getting called up THIS September, IIRC. So we should be able to phase Lowell into the bench next season once Lars comes up. There are other prospects that might get called up before Lars as well – Reddick (move JD to left, Bay to 1B, Youk to 3B?) or Bates maybe.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 26, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lars in 2009
Based on a strong ‘08 campaign, you could certainly make a case (I know I did last year) that Lars could get a midseason ’09 call up due to injury if he ripped through AA and AAA pitching. However, he hasn’t and isn’t on the 40 man roster making it doubtful, at least in my eyes, that he’ll be in Boston in September.
I think a more realistic approach would be getting the call after the ’10 trade deadline, ease into the lineup and get a full time gig when Lowell and/or Ortiz walks. This, however, is all built on the premise that he turns around his ’09 season and plays well next year.
by mg050369 on Jul 26, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of my hope in Lars comes frm USG, he seems pretty optimistic about Lars and he knows our minor leaguers as well as anyone.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 26, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
I’m also hoping that we have other guys come up to limit the amount of time Lowell has to play on his gimpy hip.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 26, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Like The Halladay Trade
And heres why:
assume we make the playoffs with or without Halladay (76% without him, 90% with him according to http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/26/963183/playing-the-odds-previewing-the ). Who is our 3rd Starter? Beckett, Lester and then? Penny, Wakefield, Smoltz, i like none of these as a potential 3rd starter and 2 game starter in a best of 7 series. Facing Beckett, Lester and Halladay 6 times in a best of seven series is as close to a lock as possible in Baseball.
If you compare the WAR increase you get by putting Halladay into the Rotation you realize, that while he would be expensive, he probably still hast the best ratio of increasing war to trading cost of all players available.
WAR of the Red Sox Roster:
Varitek 1.8
Youk 3.2
Ortiz -0.4
Green 1
Lowell 0.5
Ellsbury 0.9
Bay 1.8
Drew 1.7
LaRoche 0.6
Beckett 3.9
Lester 4
Wake 2
Penny 2.1
Smoltz 0.8
Halladay is the 3rd best Pitcher in the Majors right now with a WAR of 5. So if you put him into the rotation for Penny u gain 2.9 WAR. For Smoltz youd gain a whooping 4.2 WAR. If you compare other positions you realize you cannot increase your WAR by around 3 for the same cost of the Halladay Deal.
Lets see the WAR of other Players often discussed:
VMart 2.6 (0.8 increase over Tek and he wouldnt even catch all games)
AGon 3.1 (2.6 over Lowell if Youk plays 3B and he would be more expensive than Halladay)
The only other trades which increase the WAR by 3 and more are completely unrealistic ones like HanRam or Pujols or Lincecum.
My whole point is although the rotation is good and one of the strengths right now, it isn’t necessary the best idea to upgrade the weakness. In this case it might be better to further improve your strength.
If the deal is Buch+Bowden+Masterson+no top prospect i’d atleast strongly consider it.
PS: I’m new here and English isn’t my native language, so take it easy on me. ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Jul 27, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First off...
Welcome. Mein Deutsch ist sehr shlecht. Ich war in Bad Harzburg fur mein urlaub in 2006.
I loved it there.
Anyway…
The issue is that it will cost Buch, Bowden, Bard and probably Lars as well to pry him away from the Jays. The Phillies have made a very strong offer with their top prospects and was turned down. Halladay would upgrade the rotation and does give us a better shot at winning now. However we are in good position for this year already and trading these prospects lessens our chances of being able to continue our success through the next 10 years. We pride ourselves on being an organization that has set itself up to win for many years. Trading away all our top prospects for a 1 1/2 year rental doesn’t fit the Red Sox mold.
I don’t think there are any major trades we should make but I think one is bound to happen at this point.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jul 27, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thx for the welcome. your german is not so bad, glad you liked it. :D
I dont know what exactly it would cost the red sox to aquire Halladay. The package you mentioned is too much, i agree. If Buch+Bowden+Masterson+X(who is not bard, not lars) is not enough i wouldn’t do the deal. If the package I thought of would be reasonable, I think we don’t loose to much, cause i think the Red Sox would have a pretty good chance of extending Doc’s contract. That would give you a Rotation of Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, (Wake) for years to come so the need for starters like Buch and Bowden wouldn’t be to urgent. We would have time to let guys like Kelly develop. The loss of Masterson in the pen wouldn’t be so hard either cause Doc is eating a ton of innings and Masterson seems to be the weak link in the pen anyway. The Jays on the other hand would get 2 guys who could start for them immediately in Buch and Masterson, a very good prospect in Bowden and someone probably pretty decent too. I don’t think trading within the same division is such a big thing, as some may believe. The Jays aren’t going to win the next 1,5 years and its very likely that Doc ends up in the AL East after that time anyway.
I’m also comfortable with the Sox staying put, but i prefer a Halladay Deal over AGon, Vmart and the newly discussed Vmart+Lee Deal.
by German Red Sox Fan on Jul 27, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is that we'd also have to extend Beckett.
And signing both to their likely values would make it impossible to sign Bay or other free agents,
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 27, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good to see BtB getting some love over here.
I would recommend you check out Sky’s posts on Halladay’s value though.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 27, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This one?
you mean this post: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/16/951321/whats-a-fair-return-in-a-roy ?
Just read it and its a nice start. But as stated by the author and in comments its not perfect.
1. Its tough to value winning now versus winning later.
2. It totally ignores playoffs, with the comment that a 85 win team has a chance to win a 5 game series against a 95 win team of around 40%. So saying the playoffs are a crapshoot is just to simple. How do the Win chances of the Red Sox increase when u can throw out a Rotation of: 1. Halladay 2. Beckett 3. Lester 4. Halladay 5. Beckett compared to: 1. Beckett 2. Lester 3. Penny 4. Beckett 5. Lester ? And in a 7 Game Series +2-3 times Halladay vs -1 time Penny, -1 times Buch (Smoltz), – 0-1 time Beckett?
And resulting out of that how to value winning 1-2 WS and making the playoffs maybe 5 times in 10 years compared to making the playoffs 8 out of 10 years?
Although a hitter and a pitcher might be a 3 WAR increase for a team, the impact on the playoff winning chances by a pitcher is far greater than the impact of a hitter.
My basic point was supposed to be: I prefer a Halladay trade over all other trades discussed right now, which include Top Prospects: So i prefer Halladay over Agon (who might be even more expensive than Halladay) and especially over Vmart (and the Vmart – Lee Combo). But i’m also fine with the Sox staying put.
And another point:
The conclusion of the article is: that almost all these Big Trades on the trading deadline are not worth it in the long run. You’re probably not able to get a fair trade for an impact player right now.
by German Red Sox Fan on Jul 28, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly why Theo tends to avoid big deadline deals.
And why I’d expect only a deal involving the best of those guys, AGon, in the winter.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 29, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buchholtz, Bowden, and Westmoreland on the table for Halladay
according to Gordon Eads at Yahoo Sports
by dsharp on Jul 28, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Which means it's not.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 29, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what a tragedy
What a tragedy it would be to go Beckett-Halladay-Lester in a short series
by SullyBaseball on Jul 28, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tragedy = we don't win either WS with Doc, and are relativelty screwed for the next 6-7 years.
@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 29, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extra Credit
Tragedy is Halladay Beckett Lester go 8 in each start and Paps blows each save.
Once again, more informed.
by jkeough on Jul 29, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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