Postgame: Buch Passes in 2009 Debut
by 0157H7 on Jul 17, 2009 10:51 PM EDT
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PrintThe return of Clay Buchholz tonight was a significant event for Red Sox Nation. Clay has a lot of history for a youth with less than a full season in the bigs: a great debut, complete with a no-hitter, and then a terrible slump last year. Which Buchholz would show - the dominant, unhittable power pitcher, or the vulnerable-looking kid who loses control of his pitches and the game?
The game started auspiciously: Kevin Youkilis smacked a 2-run homer off Ricky Romero, the Jays rookie phenom who'd won 5 of his last 6 games. Clay took the mound with the lead, and in the first inning enjoyed fine defense from Nick Green, who made great plays to record all three outs. Romero and Clay both settled down, until the 5th; in that inning, Ortiz crushed a changeup on the outside corner, missing an opposite field home run by inches. The clutch double drove in another 2. This made up for a sac fly that put the Jays on the board in the 4th.
Overall, Buchholz looked sharp against a tough lineup, although he benefitted from some strong defense, and didn't record more than 3 Ks. With our normally porous defense, pitching to contact is rarely a good idea, but Clay did it successfully.
The pen was masterful, with none of its recent struggles evident. The Bard retired all four of the batters he faced, striking out three of them. Hideki Okajima also pitched well, and Jonathan Papelbon had an uncharacteristic 1-2-3 inning, throwing only 8 pitches.
It was a great win, missing only a bit of offense. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your faith in Smoltz) Clay won't get a chance to build on his success tonight, at least in Boston. He's slated to rejoin Pawtucket on Saturday to clear space for Lowrie. Barring trouble in the rotation or a trade of Penny, we won't see him again until September. Which is a shame, because I, for one, would like to see more of him.
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I answered yes, but really no.
It’s just that my reason is because I don’t like the idea of the 6-man rotation. No need to throw everyone out of sorts.
I don't think
that Smoltz is going to make it. Three mediocre/bad starts isn’t enough to rule him out entirely, but I don’t have a good feeling about him. In addition, his advanced age and the fact that he’s coming off a serious injury aren’t encouraging.
As it stands, the rotation is Beckett, Lester, Wake, Penny, and Smoltz. The last two are expendable, and we’ll have to incorporate younger talent at some point into the rotation. As far as I’m concerned, the sooner we get younger, the better [/NG]. Next year, I want to see Beckett, Lester, Wake, Dice-K, Buchholz.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
2 mediocre.bad starts
Unless you blame him for rain.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 17, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
DAMN YOU SMOLTZ!!!
WHY DO YOU WANT IT TO FLOOD?!?!
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Oh, and
4.25 K/BB
7.65 K/9
0 HR
I would REALLY hesitate to call Smoltz done. Those are great peripherals for his first 4 ML starts after surgery.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 17, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Emphasis on "first 4 ML starts."
Even if they’re great, we can’t assume he’s going to be better. He could very well get worse.
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Precisely
No that there has been a big enough sample to say-and the comp over the innings Smoltz has pitched has not been the best, but actually his peripherals are awesome. Things like FIP and tRA are silly to look at over this sample size, but if you do look, Smoltz has like a 2.4 FIP and a very low tRA. Most importantly, his average FB velocity is only down 0.7 MPH from 2005. I think he is/will be fine.
Me too.
But it he doesn’t, we could move cycle Masterson, Buch, and Smoltz.
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Bad word choice.
One time rotation of the trio, not multiple.
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I chose the last option for that exact reason.
I don’t know if Smoltz will get much better, but if he doesn’t, I’d trade Saito and move Smoltzie to the pen to make room for Buch.
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Smoltz last start wasn't bad...
Even though it was against the lowly Royals, he wasn’t keeping his pitches high in the strike zone, his split finger was good. I guess I think a pitcher is showing command is when the batters are chasing his split finger as the Royals did last Saturday night. He was fooling batters. His stuff wasn’t overpowering like Bard’s is doing right now, but Smoltz was showing why he is a hall of fame pitcher.
Right now, I think the Sox should keep their five man rotation as is. If Daisuke comes back, and can actually show he can be the pitcher he was in 2008 without the walks, Smoltz should go to the bullpen.
As much as Buchholz pitched a good game in Toronto, he still needs some work on his breaking balls. He basically threw fastballs and changeups all night, and when he threw a breaking ball, it appeared more likely not in the strike zone..
by superferret on Jul 17, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Good observation of the breaking balls.
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That was the plan (see below way down)
they have been working on less reliance on the curve so that he does not shy away from attacking with the FB all year. Makes the change that much better. There was an article in the globe about it yesterday.
I read the Globe (Massarotti) article.
I think it was wise to keep Buchholz’s breaking ball in check, but batters are going to figure out really fast what is coming if Buchholz basically has two pitches. The Jays batters were fouling off fastballs waiting for the change up, for example.
If I were John Farrell, I would make sure Buchholz’s had his slider close to state of the art, before he is ready in September. I wouldn’t put him back up on the mound if he is afraid to throw his breaking balls for strikes, especially if the race tightens in September, which it will.
I don't think he was scared of throwing it...
It seems more like he was being told to use it sparingly, so he tried to use it more effectively.
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He appeared more composed and in control tonight
Obviously, he is maturing – I think you still wait until September and see where we are at. He is hungry so he will probably tear it up and succeed in Sept. Next year, unless he is traded (which seems very unlikely) he will have a shot to start. Smoltz and probably Penny are one year rentals. If Buch had produced last season then Smoltz or Penny would not be in a Sox uniform. Any thoughts on DiceK coming back this year?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Buchholz is the Sox FO's golden child.
They are not going to trade him. They see this guy as a future starter, especially if Beckett leaves after the 2010 season.. Penny won’t be here next year, given his market value has probably doubled since his signing in January. in a year or two, the Sox rotation will probably look like Lester, Matsuzaka (when he gets back into shape), Buchholz, god forbid, Wakefield?!?! and a free agent if Beckett doesn’t sign, or Peavy in a trade.
Bowden or Tazawa could be in there too.
Why the hate for Wake? It’s not like his stuff’s going to get worse.
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I don't think it is hate for Wakefield..
Wakefield’s gameday performances are always a mystery. His starts can be either lights out or just slugfest for the opposing team. Wakefield isn’t getting any younger, as much as he can pitch a couple years, it doesn’t take much to put him on the DL with his previous back problems.. I just wouldn’t do much long term planning with Wake, compare to Lester, Bard and Buchholz.
To me, Wakefield’s main strength is that he can go 7-8 innings, no matter if he is bleeding runs. He puts less stress on the bullpen, and I do think having Wakefield in the starting rotation helps the bullpen perform better. Wakefield doesn’t walk many batters, and he is not going to get overtaxed throwing 68 mph pitches.
I just think one cannot assume that Wakefield will be a dominant pitcher as part of the Sox rotation. I am glad he is having a great year, but a team can’t rely on a starting pitcher that has only two pitches, (change up and knuckleball)
If some reason that Wake leaves the Sox (which he won’t, he is pretty damn affordable, and he will retire with the Sox) The Rays should sign him right away, he seemed to do always very well in the Tropicana Warehouse.
Let's analyze each as best we can...
Smoltz – started rocky, but improving almost every time out. He looks to be a force in a couple of more starts.
Penny – Started out lousy and got much better after a few starts. Hmmmm, sounds like Smoltz.
Dice-K – Possibly done for the year. May get a start or two in September if our position in the playoffs isn’t riding on it, but I’m guessing Tito is thinking we have enough depth without that “attempt” for the post-season.
Buch – Young, live arm, good stuff, fairly poised, outstanding in AAA. Let me repeat the first part – young. In other words, good for the long haul, has endurance, won’t break down.
Only 2 can make it behind Beckett, Lester, and Wake – assuming they stay injury-free.
Right now, Smoltz likely has one spot. That’s why they got him, and everything he’s doing is pointing in that direction.
Penny reminds me too much of Calvin Schiraldi to go into the post-season with. Dice-K is too much a roll of the dice (sorry about that).
That leaves Buchholtz as the 5th. Could Penny be traded to someone who wants a decent starter? Saito to someone who needs a decent reliever/closer?
Difference: If we don't use Penny, we lose him.
Leaving Bowden as our backup starter instead of Buchholz
And we don’t need to pitch Penny in the postseason. 4-man rotation.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 18, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Beck, Lester, Smoltz, and… Wake? Not entirely sure I feel comfortable with Wake in there over Penny.
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Uhh.....
Wake has 11 wins this year. He’s the best pitcher in the AL. I’d rather have him than anybody….ever.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Wake isn't the best pitcher in the AL, he isn't even near the best pitcher on the Sox.
Cliff Lee is a much better pitcher than Wake for example, even though he has a bad W-L record, he has lower ERA more Innings pitched and more strikeouts. Wake’s ERA is always around 4-5. I would rather have Cliff Lee in a heartbeat. Actually Cliff Lee is the true workhorse of the AL. He has the most IPs at this moment.
Wakefield’s great strength is his versatility, his reliability for innings pitch and a manager can know they can get 5-6 innings out of him come hell or high water. I am glad he is having a great year, but Wakefield has always been a curious anomaly, than the ace of the staff.
ferret, consider who you're talking to. Do you really think BTLove would say something that dumb?
It was sarcasm. We might need to start doing the font.
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Trust me, it was sarcasm.
Either that, or BTLove got hit in the head by a ski pole.
And all humor makes fun of someone – whether it be sarcasm or knock-knock jokes, which make you laugh because you don’t instantly get them. Sarcasm just works best when you’re angry or when there’s an easy target.
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I love sarcasm,
and I think quoting movie lines is the lowest form of humor; very unimaginative. (not that I don’t do it myself)
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I completely agree.
You had me at ‘Hello.’
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Buchholz got the win...
However he was using pretty much two pitches for 5 2/3 innnings: fastball and change up. He was really leery in throwing his curve and slider in the strike zone, when he threw it. His curve is beautiful to watch, given the break, however the amount of break would make hitters time when it was going to be in the zone.
He is still a big work in progress. He got out of trouble in the 4th, he got the play at third. He is still rough, and he needs to get a third strike with the breaking ball.
As much as he has some big time potential, he is highly overrated. If he joins the Sox rotation next year, he will be a fifth starter. Even though he wasn’t bad, Buchholz need to be careful on his WHIP, he had three walks, which isn’t bad, but if he is not hitting his breaking balls in the strike zone, he may have Daisuke numerous walks per game in 2008.
The pitcher that impressed me last night was Bard. He was overpowering the batters, he was mixing up his pitches to keep the batters guessing. I can see him take over Masterson’s role, if Masterson is traded, or be the elusive closer if Paps goes somewhere else.
by superferret on Jul 18, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Bard has made some people look downright ridiculous.
I can’t decide if Ryan Howard’s K in extra innings is worse than today’s K on a pitch that hit the batter’s foot.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 18, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Curve
Buch did throw far fewer curves than we are used to, but i think that is/was strategic and probably decided before the game. In the AFL Cather worked with him to rely on his curve less, that that he can establish the fastball and make the chance that much better. This has been continued as a plan for this year. Last year, when he got into trouble, he threw far too many curves. Thus, the plan all year has been the reverse of what young pitchers with less “stuff” than Buch are taught: hold back on what was supposed to be your single best pitch. Last night what impressed me most watching Buch was movement on the fast ball early in the game (it flattened out later), the location (always hitting the outside corner) and the speed variation from 90-94. Fantastic.
For shits and giggles, Mr. Daniel Bard:
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The curve, for the record, is almost certainly just the "mean" slider.
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 18, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, hold on...
Yep, the two pitches furthest to the bottom right corner could’ve been either.
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Buchholz did what he needed to do.
One of his big problems last year was that he panicked when baserunners were on board last year. His ability and willingness to keep going after batters is a very promising sign for the future.
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