Who is First Half MVP?

by KFoles12 on Jul 16, 2009 1:01 PM EDT

Out of the Red Sox offensive players, who is the MVP for the first half?

Dustin Pedroia's average is down from last year but has 30 doubles and 65 runs.

Jason Bay's average continues to drop but leads the league with 72 RBI's and is seventh in the league in Home Runs.

Jacoby Ellsbury right now has the highest average on the team and is second in the league with 40 stolen bases. Run production is his biggest problem but it also has to do with his spots in the lineup changing.

Kevin Youkilis had an incredible april and may but june and july for him has been a disaster. He still has had unreal run production for the amount of at bats and games he has.

To me no one else on the offensive side of the ball qualifies.

Poll

Who is the offensive MVP of the First Half for the Red Sox

Dustin Pedroia

1 votes

Jason Bay

31 votes

Jacoby Ellsbury

3 votes

Kevin Youkilis

16 votes

Other

6 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Youkilis takes it over Bay because of the fielding, IMO.

But I guess the fact that Bay hasn’t been injured helps him. Toss-up for these two guys.

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 16, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

In re: Ellsbury

“Run prevention is his biggest problem.”
Fixed.

Ells now has the lowest raw UZR on the team, at -8.9 runs. That says he’s cost us nearly nine runs with poor defense. However, his UZR per 150 games is not the worst on the team, that’s still Lugo at -44.1.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Jul 16, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

That’s a Fenway Park issue. UZR has major problems with Fenway. Its a known issue.

I think anyone who watches the team would be extremely skeptical that Ellsbury could show up that bad. He’s been very good in the field

by alskor on Jul 16, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I generally only trust UZR for infielders.

Outfielder numbers are messy. In Fenway, it’s even worse.

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 16, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Small Sample Size

Even a years worth of data is not indicitive of a players defense when it comes to UZR. That being said I also think it is the most appropriate defensive statisitc.

by drabidea on Jul 17, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Bay also had those game-saving HR’s and hits early in the season. He leads the team in WPA by a lot.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 16, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

Why not just look at WAR?

Youk’s way ahead at 3.1, trailed by Dusty (2.6), Drew (2.2), Tek (1.9) and Bay (1.9). Yes, Tek and Bay are TIED.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 16, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, now I remember pitchers...

As Drugs said, Beckett’s great at 3.5, Lester’s been almost as great at 3.4, Timmeh’s good for 2.1, and Penny’s been worth 1.8 WAR.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 16, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, in MVP arguments, I think context dependent stats do make some difference.

WAR is entirely context independent, which is a good way to evaluate a player’s ability. However, Context dependent stats, like WPA or even (gulp!) RBI, do have some use in an MVP argument. The plays that Jason Bay has made for the Sox this year have been of greater use to the team winning than those by Youkilis. It does not mean he has played better. Just that his hits came at better times. I’m not saying to go entirely by WPA, but it should play a part.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 17, 2009 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Hmm.

Depends on your definition of “valuable” I guess.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 17, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Youkilis

Second would be Beckett, for me.

Someone who deserves a mention is Ramon Ramirez. He’s been phenomenal and made that pen the best in the majors.

by alskor on Jul 16, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Josh Beckett

In his last 13 GS (92.1 IP), he is 9-1 with a 1.95 ERA . In other words, since May 1st, Beckett has been almost unhittable. In my opinion, he is the team MVP.

Ellsbury has been good once he hit in the bottom of the order. But he had little impact at the top of the order. His hitting picked up in June, and still his overall OBP is decent but not great.

Bay has only hit .242 AVG/.343 OBP/.496 SLG since May 1st (his last 240 AB). An .839 SLG is decent, but it’s not MVP caliber.

Youk has been better than Bay offensively since May 1st. He is hitting .259 AVG/.384 OBP/.513 SLG (189 AB) in that time span. His .897 OPS is very good and his versatility is important. But, to me, he falls just short of Beckett.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 16, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

Beckett is my choice as well.

What about some love for JD Drew? Dude has a good OBP, good ISO and plays some great D. He’s just behind Beckett and Youk for me.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Drew is good.

But he combines not being that good with a frustrating style of play, so the love is hard to find.

I’d give Beckett and Lester props before Drew. Probably Paps too. As much as he’s been difficult to watch, he’s got a 1.85 ERA and is converting almost all of his save opportunities.

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 16, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Drew has been very consistent this year

Drew has been better than Bay since May 1st. Bay had an incredible April. Drew has also made a couple of game-changing plays on defense. I’m a big JD Drew fan.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 16, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, he's certainly been consistent.

And I don’t question his actual credentials. But his numbers simply aren’t as good as Youk’s or Bay’s (both of whom were carrying the team for all intents and purposes through the first quarter of the season), and no matter how good his results are, people are going to overlook him because of his willingness to take a 3rd strike, basically.

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 16, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Smoltz has been worth more WAR than Paps, FTR.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 16, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh. Consider how WAR is actually calculated.

As much as I hate the use of the concept for most considerations, “getting the job done” does work to a certain extent in a closer situation as far as actual value is concerned. It may not help predictions of future performance, and it certainly shouldn’t be used to consider things like Cy Young (which is about the BEST pitcher), but as far as value is concerned, there were only 2 situations where replacing Paps with another pitcher could have produced a better real result, and in every other situation they could not have really improved on his results.

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 16, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

FG’s uses FIP to calculate WAR which is going to rate Paps pretty badly.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jul 17, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

True.

But even looking at other stats, like tRA or pRAA, Smoltzie rates better than Paps.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 17, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Results > Process?

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 17, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

WAR agreed.

Good eye, MGBB.

@bs_uf15bosox9be:OverTheMonster-ALLERGEN WARNING:May contain PB.

by bdalebs on Jul 16, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Out of the offensive players, it's pretty close between Bay and Youk

I give Bay the edge because he hasn’t been on the DL.

But the real MVP is the bullpen. They’ve dropped off recently, but they were lights out the first three months of the season.

by RSNexile on Jul 16, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

Kind of unrelated

we all have the typical definition of “Most Valuable Player”. I have to atleast give Nick Green some props because if we didn’t have him our team would not be in first place that is for sure. I mean if we didn’t have Bay we could put in Rocco. If we didn’t have Green who would we put in? The local high school shortstop probably.

That being said Beckett then Bay are my votes.

by drabidea on Jul 17, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions