Reviewing the Red Sox's 2008 Draft: Casey Kelly is that good

by Randy Booth on Jun 6, 2009 6:00 AM EDT in Minors Comment 11 comments

via www.sonsofsamhorn.net Casey Kelly is very, very good.

With the 2009 MLB Draft quickly approaching on June 9, I decided to look back on what the Red Sox's 2008 draft looked like.

The MLB draft is always an interesting time because unlike NFL or NBA drafts, the average person doesn't know 95 percent of the players drafted. If you're really into it, you jump on the Internet and start Googling Joe Schmo's name as quickly as possible. You learn a tidbit here, you learn a tidbit there. But the real proof is in the pudding: the regular season.

Here's a look at the top 10 selections from the Red Sox' 2008 draft:

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
1	Kelly, Casey		SS/RHP	Sarasota HS (Fla.)

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	1.12	48.1	32	9	39
A+	5.06	5.2	9	1	4

The Sox started the season with a plan for this talented player: 95 innings to start the season as a pitcher and then the rest of the season he'll play shortstop. The Red Sox are going to have a hard time yanking Kelly from the mound after the way he's started this season. If Kelly does well in the field, it's going to be an interesting decision about what to do with this all-around athlete. He is, no doubt though, going to be a impact player in just a few years.

Casey Kelly video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
1s	Price, Bryan		RHP	Rice

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	2.45	44.0	37	12	40
A+	12.00	6.1	8	7	10

If Kelly is a shortstop, Price could play the pitcher role down the line. Price found similar success to Kelly in his team in Greenville (A). His two starts in Salem has been rough, but there's no reason not to expect him to rebound. According to SoxProspects, Price doesn't have a lot of "mileage" on his arm -- that's a good thing. There's another guy who has succeeded when he entered the Sox system without a lot of mileage -- Clay Buchholz.

Bryan Price video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
2	Gibson, Derrik		SS	Seaford HS (Del.)

2008 stats
TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
RK	94	.309	0	14/0	.804
SS	35	.086	0	2/0	.318

Unfortunately for Gibson, he hasn't seen any time on the field this season (extended spring training). The book on Gibson looks good, though: fast and very good defensively. He seems the type that could float around the infield -- and perhaps even the outfield -- and be a game changer on the basepaths. The bat will be the thing to watch down the line, though.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
3	Fife, Stephen		RHP	Utah

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	0.00	4.0	1	1	1

Fife just made his 2009 debut on May 30, but at least it was solid. Fife missed time due to weakness in his pitching shoulder. The injury could be of concern, but he's still an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
3	Weiland, Kyle		RHP	Notre Dame

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A+	6.91	43.0	53	18	37

Weiland has certainly struggled in his time in Salem. His strikeouts are still pretty high, but so are his walks and the number of hits he's allowed. Salem seems to be a hitter's paradise though, so I wouldn't worry about him too much. He, like Fife and Price, have the college experience to help them get through problem areas.

Kyle Weiland video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
4	Hissey, Peter		CF	Unionville HS (Penn.)

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	144	.222	0	9/2	.568

Hissey has struggled transitioning from the high school game to the professional game. He'll need to bring up the batting average/power numbers if he wants to keep moving up in the system.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
5	Westmoreland, Ryan	CF	Portsmouth HS (R.I.)

Has yet to play in Red Sox system

Well ... he's supposed to be talented. Westmoreland had shoulder surgery in November and is expected to be returning this month. SoxProspects compares Westmoreland to Grady Sizemore.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
6	Lavarnway, Ryan		C	Yale

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	135	.283	6	0/0	.881

Future Red Sox catcher of the future? You never know. Lavarnway is splitting time with Tim Federowicz and is performing almost as well. He's been all around solid, having both a decent average (.283) and showing pop (6 home runs) in the bat.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
7	Federowicz, Tim		C	North Carolina

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	169	.314	7	1/0	.882

Future Red Sox catcher of the future? You never know. Federowicz has seen great success in his short time in the Sox system. Not only is he hitting for average in Greenville, but he's hitting for power. His 7 home runs and .882 OPS is evidence of that. The Red Sox would like him to take a few more walks in the future, though (.368 OBP).

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
8	Lee, Mike		RHP	Oklahoma City U.

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	4.91	3.2	4	3	3

Lee has only pitched one this season and that was on May 29. He worked 3.2 innings of relief but didn't fare well. Obviously the jury is still out on Mr. Lee until he can put some more innings in.

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Comments

Kelly isn't that good. He's better.

The more I read about Kelly’s outing tonight, the more I love it. First-pitch strike was constant, and he wasn’t just throwing down the middle, he was absolutely painting. He had guys swinging and missing, and gave up good contact only twice.

One firsthand scouting report suggests we may have something special on our hands as far as his changeup—previously his third pitch—is concerned:

Changeup: At 84 MPH, I originally thought the pitch was a slider from my vantage point past the third base dugout due to the pitch’s downward movement. In order to get a closer look, I spent an inning behind home plate trying to figure out exactly what the pitch was. An usher next to me thought it was a split and I was able to rule out a slider because the pitch not only had significant drop, but wicked fade as well. Changeups with that kind of movement are very hard to come by at this level.

Kelly faced the same team tonight that hit him 9 times for 3 runs in his first outing at A+. Now, either that was a bad outing, this was a truly exceptional outing…Or Casey Kelly just figured out A+ ball in about a week’s time. Now, I know I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but if that’s the case, than we could be talking about a guy pitching AA at age 19 with 100 professional innings pitched.

Kelly could be one of the best 1st round picks in the draft.

by Ben Buchanan on Jun 6, 2009 6:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Although starting in AA will probably wait until next year

They need to try the “Casey Kelly, SS” experiment between now and then.

by lone1c on Jun 6, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As great as he's been as a pitcher, I'd wait until he starts having real issues until we try the SS experiment.

We can always send him back down, right?

WBULTV - BDale TV Prod

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll hit his limit soon

He’s already pitched about 60 innings in the regular season, and 20 in spring training. If they’re holding him to a limit of about 95, that’s about three to four more starts. They’re not going to keep him in stasis for the rest of the season, so it’s as good a reason to do the SS experiment now.

Another thing to think about here is that Kelly wanted to be drafted as a SS, even though most teams probably projected him as a SP. If he struggles out of the gate as a SS, he might see the light about becoming a pitcher.

by lone1c on Jun 6, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the terrific insight USG

And I am thinking the first outing was bad ‘cause of the sudden nature of the promotion (Nobody, not even CK himself, was thinking he’ll pitch in advanced A this season) so the level of the Adrenaline was high and he messed up! Now he’s in his confort zone.
Oh and guess who was the starting pitcher of the opposing team? Brian Matusz, the fourth pick overall of last year draft (who was very good too).
Gentelmen, I think we have something very special in Kelly.

The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!

by radiohix on Jun 6, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And because I can't seem to make just 1 post...

Stephen Fife pitched 5 perfect innings last night, and should be given a pass for the shoulder weakness unless it starts to recur. He was used a lot in college, and may just be experiencing a Lester-like relapse of sorts. Given that he was considered a great workhorse-type pitcher in college, I’m guessing his arm/shoulder is pretty durable.

by Ben Buchanan on Jun 6, 2009 6:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs