An idea for the DH situation
by BigRedDog42 on Jun 5, 2009 1:39 PM EDT
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For this season, trade for a lower level DH solution, like Nick Johnson. He would be perfect because his contract expires this year. So he finishes the year at DH, we get the draft pick, then we find a different player for the future.
This offseason, both Jason Bay and Matt Holiday are free agents. It's a well known fact that Bay is our worst defense player this year by just about every defensive measure. Holliday is known as a very good left fielder. Holliday is having an off year, which may make him more of a bargain in the offseason. And I think it's been the Sox plan to resign Bay barring any Manny like contract demands.
Now it may be a little too hopeful to think they could ever sign both, but to me that would be the best case scenario. Improves defense and gives us a long term core of great hitters. The Sox payroll has been declining and hopefully they'd be willing to open up the purses a little.
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Holliday-Boras Client
Bay-not
It would have to be a very good deal or no way. The Red Sox are having frosty relations with Boras after Teixeira and Varitek. In other words, Bay comes back home to BOS and Holliday to NYY-as it should be.
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."
Ahh-Boras
He is indeed a game changer. Between Varitek, Manny, JD’s horrible deal, and the Teixeira fiasco, I can definitely seem then not wanting to deal with him.
Tek's paid off pretty well.
Manny – we all know the story
JD – while being severely overpaid in 07, he was actually a bargain last year, and we could break even for this year, according to FanGraphs.
Tex – would’ve been a d-bag even if he wasn’t a Boras client. He dragged out negotiations when he had already decided he was going to sign with the MFY.
I dont knwo who said it, but
Nobody wins a trade with Billy Beane. I would rather stay very far away from anyone Oakland is trying to deal.
Yes.
And that’s common knowledge. He always wins the deals – ALWAYS.
by bdalebs on Jun 5, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holliday was supposed to be a signing
I didn’t mean trade for Holliday. I wanted a stop gap DH for this year, then sign Holliday next year.
I haven’t really seen any other outfielders who will be FA. But yea, Bay to DH was the main idea of my post. I just realized that I never actually came out and said it.
Oh.
Well, check this list for ideas:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
- Crawford has an option, but he’d be a guy to look at, assuming we can fix his OBP.
- Ankiel could play any OF position, and is a straight up FA.
- We should’ve signed Hinske this past offseason, but we could get him this time.
Other guys on there too that’d I take a flyer on.
I like that move, but doubt Bay would want to sit on the pine? Still thinking Holliday would hit pretty good @ Fenway….That’s half the games anyway…LOL
That's not bad
Would help keep Drew healthy. Plus, I don’t think JD is all that much better defensively than Bay.
Bay is horrid on defense.
Drew is average. By UZR.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Holliday
His numbers were heavily bolstered by Coors Field. His numbers are about right. His homers are down 23% because of the Athletics home field. He isn’t that good, but if he was in Boston, his numbers would probably be like .295/25HR/115RBI
Big Numbers
The stats you listed tell me very little about the quality of the player.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I'm just saying
his numbers were over exagerrated in Coors field where his numbers are increased 25%, and the Athletics field reduce righty’s numbers by 23%, so he might even out in Fenway
Big Numbers
Sure they do.
Not to harp on this, but you can look at that line and make an educated guess that he’s a pretty good player (unless he did it in 100 games, in which case he’s awesome). Sure, it’s not wOBA, but check out the leader board for wOBA. Neverminding that they have Jason Bartlett (!!!) at no. 4 in the majors, it’s basically what you’d expect. However, scanning the leaders for AVG, HRs and RBI, you see the SAME NAMES.
Traditional stats are a fine way of evaluating a player, even if they are not the full picture, and even if they don’t somehow give you the Grand Unifying Theory™ of baseball. You just need to use your imagination a little bit, look at his other stats, and you can get a good idea about he quality of the
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I think he's somewhere in the middle
He went from the best hitters park to one of the worst hitters park. I think he’ll end up being very good if he came to Fenway. Hopefully, he could be gotten for a price of a very good player, not the price of a great player.
Holliday was horrible on the road and great at home before this year, right?
And this year, he’s been horrible at home, but not much better on the road. BUT, he’s still been above league average, both at home and on the road. And, he’s a right handed power bat, someone that would fit Fenway well. He wouldn’t be a bad option, just overly expensive.
I know.
But why use stats that force you to “make an educated guess” about how good he has been? It was an obnoxious comment by me, but I just hate how players are judged on those stats that are not as descriptive as others that are freely available.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Again, Jason Bartlett is no. 4 in the Majors in wOBA.
Based pretty much entirely on his high average. I’ll make an educated guess that he’s not actually better than no. 6, Adrian Gonzalez.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Jason Bartlett is currently slugging .596 and getting on base at a rate of .418. That is why he has a high wOBA. If his average had been .300 instead of .370 (but with the same OBP), he probably would have a similar wOBA. He is playing really, really well. The higher wOBA obviously does not mean that he is a better player than Gonzalez, it only means that he has played better (though barely). Its a good example of why RBI are dumb. He has played just as well as Gonzalez, but has 13 less RBI and thus is considered a worse “run producer.” However, he has 30 less PA’s with men on base. (Though I will say that RBI in a way show that Gonzalez has played more games, which increases his value, but why not just look at “Games Played”?)
I’m not even sure I understand your point in bringing up Jason Bartlett. Do you think he has not played well this year and should not be high on statistical leaderboards? Or do you want a stat that shows a player’s intrinsic value as opposed to their past performance? What is wrong with Jason Bartlett being high on a list of good performers for this season?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Your original comment was about "the quality of the player"
which I would think calls for an assessment of the player’s intrinsic value. Bartlett’s season has indeed been very good thus far, though with a BABIP of .411 it’s not really sustainable. If his balls weren’t dropping at that obscene rate, both his OBP and SLG would drop significantly.
My point in bringing up Bartlett’s wOBA is that even with the fancy stats, you need to assess the full context and read between the lines.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
For sure.
Of course I don’t think Jason Bartlett has turned into Hanley Ramirez, but he has played like Hanley so far this year. There is a sample size problem. Bartlett has a career wOBA of .329 (compared to .450 this year).
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Or understand that it judges players based on a certain time frame.
It takes almost a full season of PA for it to become a proper measurement.
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