Trade Talk
by drabidea on Jun 4, 2009 4:40 PM EDT
96 comments
There has been alot of talk about trading one of our prospects for a hitter. We have been debating which hitter to get, but we haven't really discussed what pitcher we should get rid of. Please keep in mind that some prospects are worth more then others Buch>>Bard. I did not put Penny on this list because any player we get for him would not help our hitting this year. We would end up getting a lower tier prospect and isn't really worth talking about.
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I'm not sure I like the wording of the question.
I voted Masterson, because I believe he’ll be traded first. But the big trade we’re talking about would prolly be centered around Bowden.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I think that Clay’s value is still down until he proves himself once again at the major league level (which I think he will). Bowden has done well in his limited innings in the majors and is highly touted. I think we will want to hold onto Bard so that when Paps leaves with his $20mil elsewhere we have a couple guys who could close for us. I don’t know what to think about Masterson’s value he is a good player who doesn’t mind filling a lot of roles for us, which I think makes him more valuable to us as a versatile player than he would as just a starter or just a reliever for another team.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 4, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless another team thinks he can be the same for them.
But I agree with you on everything else. I’d actually like to trade Paps and use Bard as the closer now, or MDC, or RamRam. Just get this drama queen out of here.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paps
I must be out of the loop on the Paps drama. What going on with him?
by boondock_saint812 on Jun 4, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He’s been making the 9th inning a bit more interesting than it needs to be. Game’s we’ve had well in hand are suddenly in doubt because he loads the bases with no outs. That sort of thing. Plus he probably won’t re-sign with us because he wants to break the record for highest paid closer in the history of baseball which I doubt the sox will do since we have several competetant relievers who can close for us. (MDC, Bard). He could be traded now so we get something for him instead of a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 4, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every time he comes in...
he loads the bases He usually does this when we’re up by 2-3 runs, which would make it seem like he wants to get a 1 run save, or create more drama. This would be annoying enough if he didn’t do it when we’re tied or only up by 1. He’s getting ridiculous, and it’s come back to bite him once or twice.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paps will be traded eventually,
maybe not this year, but expect this to happen. Rumors are he is asking for $15 + and a long term deal. This is Boston’s version of K-Rod. 30 year old closer who wants ridiculous amounts of money. Theo will get something in return before he hits the FA market.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 4, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 Players we might want
1. Jack Wilson – He is good shortstop, but a little short on hitting. He would be a good pickup, and might be cheap. I’m thinking maybe Jed Lowrie(SS) for Jack Wilson?
2. Adam LaRoche – He would be a good guy to replace Big Papi. Good lefthanded bat that is ok in the field. Maybe Enrique Gonzalez(SP) and Paul McAnutly for Adam LaRoche?
3. Brian Giles – He is a ok player. He has a huge contact that would go up to $11 Million. The padres would have to bite most of the money and could be worth his money. He is having a bad season though, so i wouldn’t reccomend the trade.
Big Numbers
by homerun013 on Jun 4, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why trade Lowrie for a guy who has about the same defensive skill, but no where near the same bat?
And the Padres are not paying any guys they trade – they’d be trying to dump salary, not take it on.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would not want any of these three
Brian Giles is done and he doesnt want to go to Boston.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 4, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think trading for SS is something we need to do, I think we have to bite the bullet untill Lowrie is healthy and then designate Lugo. Lowrie can probably be our SS full time. If we trade for one I’d rather it be JJ Hardy who is 5 years younger than Wilson and could be on the trading block due to the emergence of another SS in their farm.
I like the idea of LaRoche as a temp fill in at DH until free agency, he can be had cheaply if the price the Braves paid for McLouth any measure.
I don’t know about Giles, I think he’s getting too old.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 4, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Masterson
Why is everyone so quick to toss Masterson away. I just do not get it. You would rather keep a guy who is not proven, Bowden, for a guy who has pitched against the Yankees, Angels and Rays in pressure situations and won? Plus he can start or relieve.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 4, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree, when I voted it came down to Masterson or Bowden, I clicked Bowden because Masterson is proven and does so many things for us.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 4, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I like Masterson. His versatility makes him very valuable. If the Sox make a trade (not a sure bet), the player(s) the Sox will get will determine which player(s)/prospect(s) are dealt.
The fact is, in the next year or two the Sox will need to fill two to three rotation spots (depending on whether or not they re-sign Beckett). They aren’t going to make a trade that may strengthen them this year but hurts them down the line. Two things Theo is always looking to do: upgrade his roster (either through the draft or by getting young, cheap, athletic players) and maintain payroll flexibility.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 4, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gonzo!
I looked at Gonzo’s numbers-he’s young, and progressively improving at a fast pace. Probably wouldn’t get done, but I would be willing to talk Buch, and a few other touted prospects for Gonzo-forget Mark Teixeira!!!
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."
by revigik on Jun 4, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
do you mean adrian gonzalez?
and i think JJ hardy is the deal we need to make. apparently he was available before the season ( at the time it looked like we had a million shortstops) but he’s a 25 home run hitter, young, and can field. i just hope to god the brewers start to collapse so that hes available. i’d give up bowden and maybe they’d be interested in brad penny?
by revived0103 on Jun 4, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Brewers hadn’t have lost Weeks to injury, Hardy might be available now. The Brewers have a hot prospect at SS in Escobar, but can’t risk bringing him up being so short in the infield right now.
Of course, the Sox could offer Bowden and Lowrie for Hardy as a start and see where that goes. Hey, thrown in Penny too.
by Bombadil on Jun 4, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie
Lowrie wouldn’t be part of the deal, they already have a decent SS in the minors. I think that we would be just fine with Lowrie, our biggest need is DH, sure our defense at SS has been horendous but Lowrie is an upgrade over both Lugo and Green there.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see them stil wanting Lowrie.
He probably projects as a 3B in the long-term, and Bill Hall is looking pretty done these days.
But agreed that there’s not much point going after Hardy.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jun 5, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bowden (and maybe Penny too) for Hardy would be a steal ... for Milwaukee
Hardy is a good SS option, but the Sox have a good SS too: Lowrie. Hardy may be slightly better, but it isn’t worth stripping the team of pitching depth to get him. Hardy is a career .267 AVG/.328 OBP/.440 SLG (.768 OPS) hitter. Last year with a bum wrist, Lowrie hit .258 AVG/339 OBP/.400 SLG (.739 OPS). Another thing, Lowrie makes league minimum and isn’t arb eligible for a few years. Hardy makes $4.5 million, is arb eligible next year, and a FA in 2011.
Hardy is off to a bad start this year: .238 AVG/.321 OBP/.381 SLG (.702 OPS). While Hardy is a legit SS, there is no reason for the Sox to get him unless they have doubts about Lowrie’s return. Trading Bowden (and Penny) makes no sense because the Sox would then have just 6 starters—and no one knows what Smoltz will give the Sox. You win this game with pitching. And Lowrie is probably 85-90% as good as Hardy, and may end up being just as good (Lowrie was a .287 AVG/.381 OBP/.446 SLG in hitter in nearly 1,500 minor league PA). If the Sox are going to trade a good prospect like Bowden, they should do it to fill a greater need: a DH, if Papi doesn’t turn things around soon.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 4, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His price might go up DD
Mets need a SS as of …um an hour ago, but i agree Bowden is way too much for Hardy.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 4, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Mets may have needs
But they have little to trade.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 4, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dump Lugo to them
~ ROLL TIDE ~
GO SOX!!
by Bama Sox on Jun 5, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Green.
But Reyes will be fine – the tear is small.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My major concerns about Lowrie is his defensive range. Hardy’s range factor over the past 2 seasons is roughly 4.4. Lowrie is 3.6, which is terrible. Even if he hits .300, he’s a liability if his RF stays in this range.
Over last two full seasons Hardy is .280 / .333 / .470 (.803). A SS who hits .280 with 25 HR with a RF of 4.4 is a huge upgrade over what we’ve seen of Lowrie so far.
If Lowrie starts showing a significant improvement in his range, then I’m okay with him. Otherwise a limited range SS hurts your pitching every night. Much rather have a .220 hitting SS with a good glove.
by Bombadil on Jun 5, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has been great by UZR.
UZR/150 of 21 in his 50 or so major league games.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 5, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, his range isn't what Hardy's is.
But Julio’s was nearly the same as Hardy’s, and we complained that he went after too many balls that he shouldn’t have. Jed’s a strong defensive SS because he knows his limits and doesn’t try to push the envelope when other guys can make a better play on a ball.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know lowries coming back but
i think we could kill two birds with one stone with hardy: the defensive problems at SS as well as Papi’s lost power. like i said, hardy can hit 25 home runs and play D. Lowrie doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a power hitter, but with his glove, at this point i don’t really care. I’m getting on the Adam Dunn bandwagon, the dude is an on base machine and always hits 40 homers.
by revived0103 on Jun 5, 2009 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be a marginal upgrade.
We gain 60 or so points of OPS and similar fielding abilities in exchange for top prospects (most likely pitchers) and 10 times the salary. It just does not seem worth it. Not to mention that the Brewers are trying to win their division and most likely will not be selling their starting shortstop after losing their 2B for the season.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 5, 2009 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
We don’t need homers, we can win playing semi-small ball.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn
I’d like to see the Sox go after Adam Dunn, who could have been had for a reasonable price as a free agent.
Dunn hits for power, has a great OBP, and can play LF, RF, and 1B. As such he could play everyday as DH, or give days off to Bay, Drew, Youk and Lowell (via Youk moving to 3B).
His bat would really improve our lineup.
by Bombadil on Jun 4, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There was no need for the Sox to spend $20 million on Dunn in the off-season
Dunn does hit for power and have good on-base numbers. But he doesn’t play any defensive position; he butchers them. In the past, Dunn has had little interest in DHing. He likes looking retarded in the OF (go figure). Also, Washington won’t be easy to deal with. They’ll want a lot for Dunn, who will make $12 million next year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 4, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to think
that now is the time to get Dunn. Washington has to sign Strasburg at $20 million + and the #10 pick which will probably be expensive. Dunn’s money while a deal, is a luxury for a team that is in the basement. Unloading that salary might be a factor in what they ask for in return. Plus who else is going after Dunn?
I do not think the Red Sox will trade to Baltimore since they are in the division, so no Audrey Huff. Nick Johnson be attainable a little less, but Dunn might be the best value in terms of prospects for the Red Sox.
Also, Dunn is one of the guys quoted as loving the idea of playing for a big time team, in big game situations and he loves Youk and Pedroia from the WBC.
But that would be the end of Papi, unlike Hardy or V. Mart.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 4, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw this...
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No to Nick Johnson
I just feel that he is not worth a trade. If I recall, he stays hurt. I would like for us to reach out a little bit more for a guy like Dunn or A. Gonzalez?
~ ROLL TIDE ~
GO SOX!!
by Bama Sox on Jun 5, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget Gonzalez
He won’t be moved this year. Dunn will be more costly, both in terms of what the Sox will have to trade and in salary. If the Sox don’t have to give up much for Johnson, he’s a very good fit for this year. And, he’ll net the Sox draft picks when he walks as a FA.
In my opinion, too many Sox fans are acting like MFY fans, expecting to get all-stars for small packages of prospects and by acting like every other team is their farm club. Theo has never operated that way. His biggest moves were getting guys like Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Orlando Cabrera, John Olerud, Tony Graffanino, etc. None of those players were huge names. But all filled the team’s need at the time.
Theo values players that fit a certain profile and don’t hurt the team’s payroll flexibility. He has signed or traded for very few big names, and has given up very few prospects the Sox were high on (the HanRam trade happened while Theo was on hiatus). This philosophy has served the Sox well. I’m not expecting things to change.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
I think the Sox aren’t going to want to trade the farm for one of those guys, sure they would be great to have but at what cost? I think the most we can expect from the FO in terms of trades is Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, that sort of player. One that can be DH for us, maybe fill in defensively if needed but generally give us some good production in a lineup spot we haven’t gotten much production from. There are a few good bats becoming free agents after this year and I think after re-signing Bay (please please plase) they may go after one of them. that way we don’t lose our great prospects.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your position
but consider the following points:
a)Nick Johnson is when healthy at least as good an offensive player as Adam Dunn. He is actually a higher wOBA* player than Dunn.
b)Nick Johnson has utility as a glove. He is a good 1b. This means Lowell, Johnson and Youk can be rotated from time to time.
c)Nick Johnson will cost far less than Dunn in terms of players traded.
d)Nick Johnson is far cheaper than Dunn (who is on the books for 12 Million for next year). Johnson can be jettisoned if the Sox want after this year.
The injuries are a risk. But either Dunn ot Johnson is a rental, not a long term solution. In that regard, the issue of injury is less than if we wanted to sign a player long term. Dunn is not in the long term plans of the Sox. He costs too much as a DH and he will likely age poorly. If either is going to be a rental, I think the choice is clear: rent low cost, low price in terms of what you give up, and take the risk on health for the year.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curious
What do you think of Adam LaRoche? I thought he might be a decent fit like Johnson, I don’t know how their salaries compare but maybe LaRoche could be had cheaper if the Buccos feel like parting (check the McLouth trade, they didn’t get much for a really good CF) than Johnson could. Adam has a lower OPS than Nick but would a potentially lower price make him a better value for the team?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I think Johnson is better offensively and defensively but he is less sturdy. LaRoche is a decent player. I think for the short term Johnson might fit more even given this risk because he adds more when healthy. For the long term it is less clear, but I don’t think the Sox would view either as a long term fix.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and
in terms of asking price it is hard to say. I don’t really have a feeling for the players the Braves gave up. We didn’t give up too much for Bay, but it was a 3 way deal, so it is hard to say. I guess I feel that in terms of what the Sox look for, LaRoche is just a bit too much under the bar to make a deal.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I’m only talking about rental, LaRoche is a FA after this season. McLouth was given up for 2 pitchers, neither of which were all too impressive, the one with the most upside will be in the minors for a couple more years probably the other may play for the top team this season but isn’t all that great, and an outfielder I don’t know too much about.
All I know is that with each day I’m losing faith in Papi’s ability to turn it around and something should be done about DH. I’m much less concerned about SS with Lowrie getting healthy, I think the horrible defense is something we will just have to live with until we can bench Green and Lugo.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Salary check:
Adam LaRoche 1b
1 year/$7.05M (2009)
* 1 year/$7.05M (2009)
o re-signed by Pittsburgh 1/20/09 (avoided arbitration)
o performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 555, 590 PAs
* 1 year/$5M (2008)
o re-signed by Pittsburgh 1/15/08 (avoided arbitration)
* 1 year/$3.2M (2007)
o acquired by Pittsburgh in trade from Atlanta 1/07
o signed 2/07 (avoided arbitration, $3.7M-$2.8M)
o performance bonuses: $35,000 for 565 PAs; $45,000 each for 590 & 625 PAs
* 1 year/$0.42M (2006)
o re-signed by Atlanta 3/06
* 1 year/$0.3375M (2005)
o re-signed by Atlanta 2/05
* 1 year/$0.3M (2004)
* drafted by Atlanta 2000 (29-880) (Seminole State College)
* ML service: 5.000
Nick Johnson 1b
3 years/$16.5M (2007-09)
* 3 years/$16.5M (2007-09)
o signed extension with Washington 3/06
o 07:$5.5M, 08:$5.5M, 09:$5.5M
* 1 year/$3.2M (2006)
o re-signed 1/06 (avoided arbitration)
o may earn up to $0.25M in performance bonuses for:
+ 130-150 games, or
+ 510-590 plate appearances
* 1 year/$1.45M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
* 1 year/$1.25M (2004), lost arbitration 2/04 ($1.68M-$1.25M)
* 1 year/$0.3641M (2003)
* agent: Rex Gary
* ML service: 8.041
Both from Cot’s
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna rehash my opinions on Johnson
all Ill say is that Dunn would be a better value for the Red Sox in terms of prospects. Johnson is sought after by 2 other teams, maybe more. As you stated he is a FA at the end of the year which is valuable to say the Mets, he is easier to place in a lineup and will cost less prospects.
Dunn is a better hitter, has 2 years and I have got to believe that the Nats want to unload his contract to save money for their #1 and #10 picks. Nats have no need for Adam Dunn, they are rebuilding. Plus if Papi is done, Dunn is a relatively cheap replacement at DH.
Ill just ad one more thing, this idea of having a 3 man rotation at 1B, 3B and DH is kind of misleading. Youk and Lowell will get 85-90% of the time at the corners so Johnson is a DH a majority of the time, I doubt he wants that job. Dunn is a perfect fit at the DH spot and in a pinch he can be put into an OF position.
Johnson will be a Met, he fits better there and Dunn fits better in Boston.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But at what cost? Johnson would come much much more cheaply than Dunn would both in terms of contracts and prospects. We don’t need a masher at DH, we have Youk, Bay, Lowell, and Drew to hit it out of the park for us now, we just need someone who can quietly and cheaply get on base for us, Johnson’s career OBP is nearly 20 points better than Dunn’s.
Plus Dunn has stated before that he wouldn’t like to be DH and as I recall is defense isn’t all that great, I watched a couple Phillies v. Natinals games this year and he is not too good out there.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I agree completely. Dunn is an awful defensive player, and doesn’t want to DH. Johnson should be cheaper than Dunn—because he is a FA after this year.
SoxAcumen may be right about the Mets’ interest in Johnson. But, they have little to offer and play in the same division as the Nats.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus the Mets may use their tradebait for a SS replacement for Reyes, who knows how long he will be out for.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What!?! You mean they won't go with Alex Cora?
:-)
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I miss him
Forgot about Cora, their backup SS/2B Ramon Martinez is hurt so they just have Cora and Castillo and Valdez who seems like a no body. Reyes has a torn hamstring but they make it out to be non-serious, seems pretty serious to me but I am far from being a licensed physician.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a small tear.
And I thought Cora was also injured.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
But his game has been “injured” for some time now.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 6, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Understanding that Dunn is awful in the field
But so is Papi and Dunn is on record stating his desire to play for a contender in big games. Plus he is boys with Youk and Pedroia from the WBC. I think he would jump at the chance to play at Fenway and be put into lineup where he will see many fastballs.
As for cost in prospects…Are we replacing Papi? or just putting a bandaid on till the offseason? Are we trying to win the WS now or in a year or 2?
Dunn is a better fit than Johnson bc he is not some attempt to fill a spot until the winter he would be Papi’s replacement and worth more to the Red Sox.
He would bridge a gap too Lars if that is the plan or until the Sox make a trade for someone like AG in the winter or FA move with Mauer.
Johnson is a merc for 3 months, possibly.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking bandaid
Of course Nick Johnson isn’t our long term DH, but neither is Dunn and Dunn can’t do all the things for the team that Johnson can. It all comes down to the fact that Dunn costs more, the Sox aren’t going to want to have to pay the big salaries of both Ortiz and Dunn, Theo would much rather get a player to fill in so that their contracts combined don’t equal what Teixiera or A-Rod is getting paid for the year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I expect Theo to make a move on a solid bat in the offseason that would be more durable than Johnson and maybe a better offensive player than either who could then be the bridge to the Lars Anderson era.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
your older opinions on Johnson, namely those related to health, make much more sense than anything you say here.
1)How is Dunn a better hitter than Johnson? Go look at statcorner for both. Look at wOBA+ which is perhaps the single most comprehensive offensive stat to judge how good someone’s contribution is to offense. The stats are listed from 2003-2009. Tell me that Dunn is the better hitter…how? Because he hits more home runs? For a team, HRs are just about the worst correlator with total runs there is. The correlation coefficient is 0.719. On base is a much better correlator at 0.91, and OPS better still. HRs are, in general, an inneficient way to score runs. I think a good argument can actually be made that jhonson is the better offensive player. If not better, you cannot say Dunn is better.
2)Don’t you understand that the extra year +12 Million for a DH is a downside for Dunn, not an upside? Theo will never pay a DH this much (unless his name rhymes with Smortiz).
3)…and he shouldn’t. Dunn is a big fat load. Those guys age very very badly.
4)The rotation aspect is certainly a plus over Dunn’s shear butchery in the field which forces him to inflexibly be the DH.
Dunn does not fit at all in Boston. He is 1dimensional, not young, and expensive. He will cost a ton in terms of payback. Wanna make a bet that if we get a National, it is Johnson and not Dunn?
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure that Dunn would be that much more expensive in terms of prospects.
That fact that he makes $12M next year should mean he has less value to the Nats than we would think. He might still be more expensive than Johnson but not by a wide margin. I would be fine with either one.
Also, hes not that fat. He is tall and built, but not really fat (well, not like Papi). If anything, I would be more likely to call Nick Johnson fat. And Adam Dunn is younger than Nick Johnson. We would have Dunn for his age 29 and 30 seasons. At that age, we should not have to worry about his abilities falling off a cliff.
Oh, and if either of them “don’t want to DH” (someone was writing this), they can fuck off. If we pay these guys millions and save them from baseball purgatory, they should be happy to play any position we tell them.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 5, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dunn
1)is less than 1 year younger
2)is fat. at the very least is a clod. 6-6 clods have “old player skills.” if ever there was someone with the old player skillset it is dunn.
3)why would we want dunn at 12 million as a dh?
4)if the nats value him so little, why did they give him 20 million when burrell, giambi and abreu went for so much less?
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why did we pay Lugo?
But to answer your question my guess would be Dunn is a name on a nameless team, it was only 2 years and the Nats need to put butts in seats, nobody goes to Nats games. Burrell, Giambi, Abreu not so much of a name any longer.
The money does matter, the Nats dont spend like the Red Sox and they have to come up with $30 million to pay their top two picks.
Dunn is a luxury for them.
I am betting Dunn could be gotten for just Bowden.
In truth I really dont want either, I would much rather have Theo go to SD and make a Teixeira type offer for AG, but we already know that will not happen until the winter. that would be the most bang for prospect buck.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why did we pay Lugo?
that is a damn good question. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because Theo was obsessive over Lugo.
God knows why.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Lugo used to be good.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 6, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never good enough to cause a rational man to develop a crush for him.
Not even a mancrush.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You keep thinking the guy the Red Sox are going to get will play the field
this is not true. The Red Sox need a DH, not a 1B or 3B, Lowell and Youk are excellent in the field. And Dunn is the better deal bc Dunn replaces Papi.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes but a player who CAN play 1B or 3B as well as DH is much more valuable than a player who would only hit DH. Think of how much more valuable Ortiz would have been if he did more than just play DH these last few years.
Dunn /= Ortiz.
We don’t need someone to = Ortiz. We have plenty of power in the lineup without him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree
Look, Youk has already missed 14 games due to injury. He’ll probably miss more time (he gets hit a lot). Mike Lowell’s hip can’t be 100%. At worst, if Theo acquires a versatile bat (someone who can play a corner IF position well) the Sox have insurance against injury. At best, they have someone who can spell other players in the field without hurting the defense.
Even with little production for DH, the Sox are 4th in the AL in runs per game and 4th in HR. They are also tied for 3rd in team OPS. They don’t need to make an expensive move. Johnson will likely be cheaper to acquire than Dunn, and he may be a better fit with the Sox.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahem
*little production from DH
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Youk's excellent at least.
Lowell needs some time off now and again. Having two players that can play a field position and DH, along with Youk, who can DH, play 1B and 3B, would create a perfect cycle.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This could all be hype put out by Theo
to take the attention away from the real trades.
Nate McClouth came out of no where…I just don’t see Theo wanting anyone in the media knowing what he is negotiating.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
We rarely know what Theo is going to do (unless, of course, the other team leaks something). We do, however, generally know what kind of players fit Theo’s profile. Johnson seems to fit better because he is as good or better a hitter, can play defense when needed, and should be cheaper to acquire.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 5, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think outside the box
Look, we don’t have to go out and get a DH. There are plenty of guys we have right now who could DH depending what the Red Sox finagle. Jason Bay, I’m looking at you. Mike Lowell is also getting older and, without looking up UZR numbers, probably has decreased range.
What if the Red Sox trade for Matt Holliday to stick in LF and make Bay the DH? No one has proposed that yet. It’s not out of the question that the Red Sox could retain both with their spending power.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Jun 5, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not in love with the idea
I like the outside the box approach, and I agree they don’t need to sign a DH. However this particular idea has problem written all over it:
a)Holliday=Beane+Boras
b)Bay is a FA after this year. I seriously doubt he wants to DH (and lower his market value). As a liked and importnat member of our team, I think that is a bad morale move.
Holliday will simply cost too much for what we get back. But I like the idea of not merelt focusing on DH.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had the same write up
So instead of posting twice I’ll just say… I agree
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 5, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't need to get a DH, but that might be the best use of our assetts.
Players who are good/flexible fielders will be more expensive than ones that are Manny-like in the field. And since we have a big open spot at DH, it should be cheapest to get a good bat who sucks in the field.
Personally, I’m hoping the White Sox lose their next 12 games and we can get Thome or Dye.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 5, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not that it is most important
but Johnson has a good bat and glove. And would be about as cheap as anything I can imagine I would want.
by Buzzy on Jun 5, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Holliday
scares the crap out of me. He just is not the same hitter since he left Coors. He is perfect for the MFY though.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 5, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd avoid Beane at all costs.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Beane beats other teams in trades, but are we convinced that he would beat Theo? I mean just because Billy Beane has destroyed some other GM’s does not mean that Theo will lose. If there is a good deal to be made I think those two would work it out. Just because a deal is made with Beane, does not mean that it is bad for us. (the Dan Haren deal has been good for the DBacks)
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 6, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only problem is after going head-to-head with Beane, you have to deal with Boras. Once you’ve given up players to get Holliday, you almost have to re-sign him. That gives Boras the upper hand in negotiations.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 6, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And that I don't think they would ever actually agree on a deal.
They’re both too determined to get what they want without giving up too much.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we did manage to dump durschurer(however the hell you spell that) off on beane
"Yeah, why rely on "facts" and "evidence" to support your arguments? Stupid me." BTLove
by irish republican army on Jun 6, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We didn't
We traded him to Texas to get Mirabelli. The Rangers traded him to the A’s.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 6, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh hell id forgot all about that
"Yeah, why rely on "facts" and "evidence" to support your arguments? Stupid me." BTLove
by irish republican army on Jun 6, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Please use the "reply" button.
And the “shift” key. And punctuation.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on another hardy note
if we did get hardy, he and lowrie could both get reg time at short, and lowrie could spell lowell for some time at 3rd to get lowell some reg rest, hes no spring chicken
"Yeah, why rely on "facts" and "evidence" to support your arguments? Stupid me." BTLove
by irish republican army on Jun 6, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But there's other options that give us more roster flexibility.
For example, Nick Johnson would allow us to put Lowell and Youk at DH every once in a while.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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