Jacoby: "I can’t control what they’re doing."
by Randy Booth on Jun 3, 2009 11:41 AM EDT
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50 comments
You know, Jacoby Ellsbury has a pretty good point:
"Everybody talks that you need to walk more, but they need to throw you balls (for that to happen)," Ellsbury said. "If you’re fast they’re not throwing you many balls. They don’t want you on the basepaths. As a fast player, as a leadoff guy, they’re not going to pitch around me. It makes it tough to walk. If you go up trying to walk you get down in the count. If the pitch is there you have to be swinging at it. You can’t be taking (good) pitches just to walk.
"The biggest thing for me is quality at-bats. I can’t control what they’re doing."
Ellsbury does have a good point. Pitchers would like to see Ellsbury, the No. 2 basestealer in baseball, on the basepaths as little as possible. Hence they are going to throw more strikes. Sure, he's hitting the ball three times out of 10, but they're not going to give him the free passes.
However, the best way to debunk this argument is to look at the OBP of other great base stealers. And I'll start with the best of all time, Rickey Henderson.
Henderson's career line:
G SB CS BB AVG OBP
3081 1406 335 2190 .279 .401
I love Jacoby, but he's pretty much flat out wrong here. If Henderson had a .279 lifetime average and a .300 lifetime on base percentage, then Jacoby has a really, really good point. But unless pitchers didn't understand this theory in the 80s -- the, "don't let fast guys on base theory" -- then his arguement doesn't hold too much weight.
Just for the heck of it, let's look at other great basestealers this season:
TM NAME SB/CS BA OBP DIF
TBR Crawford 31/2 .319 .381 +62
BOS Ellsbury 22/6 .304 .342 +38
LAA Figgins 20/4 .295 .376 +81
HOU Bourn 17/4 .290 .362 +72
TBR Upton 16/3 .212 .306 +94
LAA Abreu 15/0 .294 .392 +98
I think Red Sox fans would be happy if Ellsbury had a +62 or, even better, a +98 AVG/OBP differential. At this point in the season, Ellsbury sports a +38 -- that just doesn't get the job done. It's nice that he's hitting .304, but we also need him to get on base by at least a +60 in my mind (more, of course, would be ideal). Then -- and only then -- maybe we'll see him in the leadoff spot.
But Ellsbury's theory? Busted.
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Ellsbury's quote shows he doesn't get it
Sure, opposing pitchers are throwing strikes. They’re trying to get him out! That said, anyone who watches Ellsbury knows that he extends his strike zone by swinging at pitches that are out of the zone. Dave Magadan, the Sox hitting coach, was on EEI recently and said that Ellsbury has to work on his pitch recognition.
Ellsbury sees fewer pitches than any Sox regular or semi-regular except Lowell and Nick Green, two free swingers.
As a fast player, as a leadoff guy, they’re not going to pitch around me. It makes it tough to walk.
Ellsbury is 9th out of 12 AL lead-off hitters in OBP (min 150 PA). He is 11th out of 12 in OPS. Ellsbury is dead last in P/PA for AL lead-off hitters. Ellsbury has the most SB (21) and is tied for being thrown out the most times (6). But 4 of the top 6 lead-off hitters in P/PA are also in the top 5 in steals. Chone Figgins is 2nd in P/PA and has 20 SB. BJ Upton is tops in P/PA and has 16 SB. I don’t think pitchers are pitching around Figgins or Upton.
The simple fact is Ellsbury hasn’t been good as a lead-off hitter so far in his career. And he shouldn’t lead-off until his on-base numbers get better—if they ever do.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 3, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
Boy, he is clueless. Sure, he can’t control what they pitch to him, but he sure can influence it. Like…stop hitting so many useless flyballs. If he had power, they would pitch to him differently, but he doesn’t. So, maybe if he made use of the fact that pitchers are attacking him in the zone, and put more balls in play with solid contact instead of upper cutting any pitch below the numbers, he could force pitchers to be less aggressive. Tell me how Denard Span can have an OBP of 390 with limited power? Why, pitch recognition and no illusions of a being a power hitter.
That being said, I still have hope for Jacoby. Maybe it is just sheer optimism, but I see hints of hope in what seems like a recently increased ability to hit to the left side of the field…
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
do they take fly-ball / ground-ball avg with him?
i’d like to see that.
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 3, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perfect
Rec’d.
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 3, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
Using Henderson to debunk Jacoby’s statements is too easy. Henderson had power. Those types (Damon, Henderson, Sizemore…) are often better OBPers due to the power threat. That is why I like the Span comparison. Look, if Jacoby recognized pitchs better, had a quicker stroke like Damon, allowing him to foul off offerings, and didn’t fly out so much, he would get on base more, it is as simple as that.
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another example
Chone Figgins – 0 HR .376 OBP
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 3, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny
I think Upton and Abreu have combined for only one or two HRs also. But with them there is a history of a power threat…
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
I forgot to mention the power aspect, but it should be taken into account.
And Upton’s power threat comes from last year’s playoffs. What, 7 home runs?
by Randy Booth on Jun 3, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that`s what i thought about Henderson and
he was a FREAK
his stance was extravagant (http://www.homeruncards.com/imagesrc/hendersonrtp.jpg).
later on it changed i know.
Rickey was an unbelievable good baseball player and i never expected Ellsbury to get THAT good.
maybe in one or another thing he maybe could top him (AVG).
but he has to take more pitches.
no doubt about that.
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury as Leadoff
I can see what he is saying, but I think he has it wrong. I think the reason he is getting alot of “pitches to hit” is because he has spent the majority of his time in front of the reigning AL MVP. In all honesty, who would you rather face as a pitcher Jacoby or Pedroia? That could be just a hunch though, lets look at the numbers.
One thing I notice at first is the percentage of fastballs he sees has gone up progressively from 2007 (61.2, 65.3, and 69.8). This seems to be a reason to keep swinging.
His swing% on pitches outside of the zone is 26.1% this year and is very similar to ones of previous years. This says he is not very patient but he is also not a free swinger like everyone is saying he is. He is about average. As a reference Ichiro’s is 31.7%. The difference between Jacoby and Ichiro is that there contact% on pitches outside of the zone are 89.2% and 72.2% respectively.
Even though is walk percentage is not going up he is striking out alot less since 2007 (12.9, 14.4, and 8.8%). Coincednetally Jacoby and Ichiro have the exact same career walk rates to date (6.4%).
Overall, I think Jacoby is showing progress. His strikeout percentage of 8.8% shows he is gaining confidence and could soon be hitting all of those outside pitches for basehits. I don’t think he will hit as well outside of the zone as Ichiro but he could easily be close to that. He is trending positively and the reason he is not getting walks could very well be because of hitting before MVPedroia.
I have hope.
by drabidea on Jun 3, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure-
you hit on the point about his O-swing% etc. He is unchanged at 26% Oswing, and something like 44% overall. That likely will not change based on how he is pitched. That is him, and those numbers are way, way too high. Span is 17/38 and Figgins is 20/40…the big difference is that Jacoby likes to hack away. And he will hack away in leadoff or at 8. He simply must learn. Ichiro would have been a much better player if he could hit like he does and still be more selective, but the guy could put up a 380OBP because he hit 340. Jacoby will never hit 340. He has to learn not to hack.
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought too he makes some progress
but i see no harm to him hitting down in the order.
with the Sox you have to take pitches anywhere.
and i thought you have an argument with hitting in front of Pedroia but look at the numbers from Ells (on top) and Crawford
AB H BB SO
After 0-1 107 0 39 5 1 0 8 3 0 12 0 0 .364 .378 .430 .808
After 0-1 108 0 33 5 1 0 11 3 2 26 0 0 .306 .336 .370 .706
After 0-2 45 0 19 0 0 0 3 0 0 7 0 0 .422 .413 .422 .835
After 0-2 45 0 13 0 0 0 1 0 0 19 0 0 .289 .289 .289 .578
After 1-2 51 0 20 1 0 0 3 0 1 9 0 0 .392 .396 .412 .808
After 1-2 51 0 16 3 0 1 7 1 0 16 0 0 .314 .327 .431 .758
well…i don’t know anymore.
and just for the fun of it:
After (3-1) 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 .083 .353 .083 .436
After (3-1) 8 0 4 1 0 0 1 13 0 1 0 0 .500 .810 .625 1.435
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 3, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry for the unreadebility
Ells after 0-1
101 AB 39 H 3 BB 12 SO and so on
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 3, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Jacoby Too
but this is an absolute BS argument, and I suspect he knows it deep down.
Walking isn’t easy. Having an OBP in the .400’s isn’t easy. Pitchers aren’t going to just GIVE you walks.
A batter needs to be able to foul off tough pitches and take all the close ones, and that’s what guys like Rickey Henderson, Bobby Abreu, or J.D. Drew are able to do.
by SouthShoreSox on Jun 3, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Patience
the guy is still young and needs to learn. I have faith in the kid. He is obviously a winner and can handle big games.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 3, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree to a point
Ellsbury will be 26 in September. That’s not that young. He is 32nd of 57 in OBP among players 26 or younger in MLB. Pedroia is only 1-month older than Ellsbury. I agree the Sox should be patient—to a point. But, he should not be hitting at the top of the order.
As for Ellsbury being a “winner,” I’m not reall sure what that means. He has played on winning teams. Here are his career postseason numbers: .263 AVG/.328 OBP/.386 SLG in 64 PA. I know that’s a small sample size, but those numbers are worse than his career .295 AVG/.345 OBP/.404 SLG in the regular season. So, I’m not sure whether or not he can handle big games. He was great in the 2007 playoffs and not so good in 2008.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 3, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It just seems ridiculous to me that this conversation is even taking place. He is a career .295 avg, 50+ SB, excellent defender. Perhaps he is not a lead off hitter, that is arguable, but the guy is a big league OF and extremely valuable.
Ellsbury ranks 9th in avg out of AL OFs with 217 ABs (3rd out of all AL OFs), 2nd in SBs with 22, 24th in OBP (.002 behind Coco Crisp), with 12 BBs (Ichiro has 9 with a .384 OBP.) My point is that Ellsbury is much better than we give him credit for. He is playing better than Vernon Wells, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton…
My point on his youth is that if he is hitting 300 now, he will learn to take more pitches and very easily get his OBP up.
Maybe he is not a top of the order guy, but he definately is a guy we need in the lineup.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 3, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree to an extent. But he is not playing better than Justin Upton. Upton is one of the best players in the league this year (OPS of 1.003) and Granderson is also playing well (.842 OPS).
Right now Jacoby is a valuable player in this league. He just ought to stay in the 7 hole.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 3, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And his batting average
is important, why? He is a below average major league hitter, and a way below average lead off man at this point, as the facts state. He is, at best, marginally above average in the field right now.
Usually players don’t learn to take more pitches at 25. It is not that easy. It can happen, but unlikely. More likely is he improves to the point where he can get his OBP up to 350-360 via base hits. he will then be much more valuable, if he can do this…
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AVG is important
in my opinion
just a sidenote.
in the Minors he always had a +60 OBP and i see no reason why he should not get closer to this with time.
Pedroia had 80+ and Youk 100+ so he is none of them.
but he can fly and as few so he just has to fight every PA to get somehow on.
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 3, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
is much more important for a leadoff hitter especially. I could care less if he hits 305 if his OBP is only 340…
by Buzzy on Jun 4, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 4, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and what has this "argument" to do with your statement about his AVG
not too much.
you said “his AVG is important why?” which implies to me that you think it is not important at all (even in respective to getting on).
i realized that it was just a bait from you.
so i put up my view:
i disagree with you.
but the next thing is not right.
“He is a below average major league hitter,…”
what is an average hitter for you?
whatever it might be for you.
it is hard to find an area on the hitting side of the ball where Ellsbury IS NOT league average OR ABOVE RIGHT NOW.
besides power stats for sure.
almost every single stat brought up in the discussion here suggests that Ellsbury is already a good contact hitter.
and i will try to support my statement with some of those already mentioned stats.
let’s put it in a hitting perspective (for the whole Majors 175 are qualified; in brackets lifetime for Ells / league average):
Z-Contact% 95.0 % (94.6 % / 87.7 %) 13th (btw best of ALL Sox. Ortiz is at the bottom of the league right now)
O-Contact% 73.0 % (73.7 % / 62.4 %) 30th (Ped and Lowell above with Ped leading the league)
Contact% 88.4 % (88.6 % / 80.6 %) 27th (only Pedroia and Lowell better from the Sox as somebody has pointed out already)
BABIP .338 (.330) 48th (Ped and Youk in front with Youk leading the league).
so he makes contact a lot and when he does he get a good amount of hits (put the less foul balls in account and you see how good he really can be some day).
in OPS he suxx (around 95th) right now. but absolutely because the lack of power (for what reason i am not sure yet).
even in wOBA he is pretty much exactly the league average right now but i am not so sure how much this stat qualifies for this discussion anyway .
and just for you Buzzy (but it has few relevance for the HITTING argument of yours)
OBP .349 ( .346/336 ) 89th (which is even pretty much the defintion of league average right now)
because you finish the sentence as wrong as you started it here is the rest of it.
“…, and a way below average lead off man at this point, as the facts state.”
to sum it up Antelope Feet is
1. already an above league average HITTER
2. not A WAY BELOW average lead off man
3. and the THE FACTS STATE exactly this and not what you said
and the rest of your post is quite as bad (maybe besides the fielding argument but i would not even rule out that you are plain wrong on that one too after so much wrongs in one post).
if you hate Ellsbury or want to make him look bad come up with something else please and if you just want to bash me then let Mr. Ellsbury out of it..
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 4, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess is that Buzzy was referring to all of our favorite one-stop stat: OPS+. Ells is only at 84 for this one. I like to think that he is better than that (mostly because his OPS is low because of lack of power and OPS overvalues power). wOBA has him right around the league average, so I think he is right there at league average. Which is fine for a good fielding CFer, just not for a leadoff hitter.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 4, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Now that I know how wOBA is calculated, I see how it’s better. Esp. since it’s approximately (2*OBP+SLG)/3, which would be perfect for a leadoff hitter, valuing OBP much more than slugging.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
actually I can explain. First Oil, of course it was a bait ;). At the time of this posting his wOBA* is (as per statcorner) 318 and his wOBA is 328. That is below average in both (for example league average is 342 right now). Same for OPS/OPS+. So he is below average. That’s simple, isn’t it? If you want him to lead off, it is even worse than that, since at least once a game a hit really isn’t better than a walk, and if you look at his OBP it simply doesn’t cut it.
Look, I am being a bit too harsh. He is close to an average offensive player. He could be much better if he didn’t hack so much. What is frustrating is that he has many of the tools to be a real offensive weapon, but they arenot put into action
by Buzzy on Jun 4, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
sry for my harsh reaction but you sounded so negative about the young man.
he is young doing ok and he still has some potential is what i wanted to say.
i have no problem putting him out of the lead off spot and see no harm for him in that.
in the end i believe he only was rushed in that spot because of his incredible speed.
it is hard to be lead off especially in a Sox line up wher you have a lot of guys with high OBP.
i enjoy so much watching him playing but something seems still missing.
and about the wOBA*+(%$§" stuff i know where the difference might come from.
from a discussion about it from the StatCorner site:
(http://www.statcorner.com/blog/2008/11/woba.html)
“Just so y’all know, the reason that our wOBA is different to Fangraphs’s is because we include reached base on error as part of the formula and they don’t.”
but i always thought that should support Ells more with his speed ???
another thing with a probable small influence could be that the wOBA used at StatCorner does not take SB/CS into account (i think).
Statcorner / Fangraphs for Ellsburry with league avg in brackets (right now):
wOBA
0.328 (.342) / .333 (.332)
ok he is more or less or almost close to a league average hitter.
somehow
i still enjoy every AB from him more than league average : )
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 4, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we all enjoy his good AB's.
And Ells speed doesn’t create as many errors as good contact does. While he forces quick throws, he would get on base more if he hit the ball better, forcing fielders to make uncomfortable plays.
And FanGraphs doesn’t take baserunning into account for their wOBA either.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 5, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe not anymore?
from the comments section:
(http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/)
“David Appelman says:
November 25, 2008 at 2:45 pm
wOBA does include SB and CS on FanGraphs."
i am not so sure waht to do with that whole stat yet.
i liked your shortversion (2*OBP+SLG)/3 but i still have not really understood how it all is related.
something stinks with wOBA would be my gut feeling but it sounds so good.
but here is from the fangraphs site (reference above) some reasoning about it:
“OPS, as you probably know, significantly undervalues the ability of a hitter to get on base. It treats a .330 OBP/.470 slug as equal to a .400 OBP/.400 slug, when the latter is more conducive to scoring runs. wOBA gives proper weight to all the things a hitter can do to produce value, and is a more accurate reflection of a hitter’s value.
For a practical example, let’s look at Ryan Ludwick versus Hanley Ramirez. Ludwick had a .966 OPS versus a .940 OPS for Ramirez – not a huge difference, but one most people would consider significant. If you put a lot of stock in OPS, you’d probably argue that Ludwick had a better offensive season.
However, Ramirez actually had a slightly higher wOBA, .403 to .401. This is due to the fact that Ramirez posted a .400/.540 line compared to Ludwick’s .375/.591 mark. Ramirez’s 25 point advantage in OBP was slightly more valuable than Ludwick’s 51 point advantage in SLG, and wOBA reflects this.
The other great advantage wOBA has is that it’s extremely easy to convert into run values. Simply take a player’s wOBA difference from the league average, divide by 1.15, and multiply that by how many plate appearances he got, and you have a run value above or below average for that player.
For instance, using Ramirez, who we already said had a .403 wOBA, which is 72 points higher than the 2008 NL average of .331. 0.072 / 1.15 = 0.063. 0.063 * 700 = 43.82 runs above average.
wOBA – league average wOBA divided by 1.15 times plate appearances = runs above average by linear weights. Simple, easy, and accurate. This is the joy of wOBA. "
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 5, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The shortened version is just an approximation.
The full calculation takes almost everything into account. I’m not sure where baserunning comes in for the formula from The Book:
(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90×1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24×2B + 1.56×3B + 1.95xHR) / PA
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 6, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey, he’s done fine batting 8th so far (even thought it’s only been two games). lets keep him there at least till the AS break.
"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby
by nepats108 on Jun 3, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Jacoby DOES have an argument.
He’s just not making it.
Let’s compare Chone Figgins (another prolific base stealer with a lifetime .357 OBP), Jason Bay (our most prolific walker) and Jacoby Ellsbury’s discipline numbers.
Jacoby Ellsbury’s percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone: 52.2%
Carl Crawford’s percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone: 52.4%
Jason Bay’s percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone: 51.5%
Clearly not the issue. How about swinging at pitches OUTSIDE the strike zone?
Jacoby Ellsbury’s percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that were swung on: 26.2%
Chone Figgins’ percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that were swung on: 16.5%
Jason Bay’s percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that were swung on: 19%
Uh oh Taco! Things just got a bit hairy for you.
But I think there’s one more thing that should be mentioned:
Jacoby Ellsbury’s percentage of pitches inside the zone swung on and made contact with: 95%
Chone Figgins’ percentage of pitches inside the zone swung on and made contact with: 90.7%
Jason Bay’s percentage of pitches inside the zone swung on and made contact with: 81.5%
Jesus! That’s a rate better than Kevin Youkilis and about the same as Dustin Pedroia! The difference for Ellsbury, it seems, is that his pitches DON’T GO FOUL. Usually, a player who has a .342 OBP (hey, it’s getting better…Didn’t even notice that) strikes out a ton. Jacoby strikes out very rarely. While his problem is also that he swings at 1/4 of the pitches he sees outside the zone, he does just have a problem with being too good at putting balls in play, in a way. Ells sees 3.64 pitches per PA, Pedroia sees 3.78, and Youk sees 4.31. Someone with Ells’ contact abilities should be seeing more.
by USG on Jun 3, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Whoops
Not sure how Carl Crawford snuck in there. He’s got a low lifetime OBP too, so he’s not worth mentioning yet.
by USG on Jun 3, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was gonna question that.
Did you originally use him, then switch to Chone?
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I agree-I mentioned some of this above-look at Oswing/Swing. Jacoby =26/44 while Span, who also has no power but is a 390OBP guy is 17/38! That is a hugh difference. Sure you can quote Ichiro, but he is a hacker and a freak of nature. Jocoby has to change this. And BTW-I am a bit reluctant to use the “he is young” argument. He played in college at a big time program, and he is now in his 3rd year in the majors. He is the same age as Span.
by Buzzy on Jun 3, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I have a personal philosophy that alot of pitch recognition can not be taught. Youkilis has had a great eye since probably little league. It is something you are born with. You can get better to extent but there is a limit to it.
He is getting better but he may never be a good leadoff hitter. He is still being productive but it seems like he is destined to be a bottom of the order type guy. If he is able to get some power back and hit more doubles he may be a nice number 2 hitter. I mean with a 95% stirkezone contact rate, he seems ideal for hit and runs and moving the baserunner.
by drabidea on Jun 3, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice analysis. I was going to look all that up and now I don’t have to.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 3, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't this all suggest that his BABIP should be really low?
‘Cause this year it’s .338
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think his problem goes toward
Those leadoff hitters who can also hit for power. Ellsbury likely never will, so while he tries to be like Damon or Upton, he’s much better off aiming to be like this guy with a better SB %.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Jun 3, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I remember the hitting coach taling about this earlier in the season.
Basically, he was saying that until Ellsbury proves he can hit in the majors, pitchers are going to challenge him. If (or when, as the coach was implying) Ells rises to the challenge, then the pitchers will start throwing around him more, leading to more walks. Basically the argument is “why would they throw me a ball when I haven’t shown that I can actually hit strikes?” Or something. Kind of a goofy argument, but it makes sense when you look at his lack of hitting prowess (2007 excepted).
And regarding Crawford, he’s a bad comparison. His career “isolated patience” is +38.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jun 3, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think he has proven that by now
and he even looks like he might becoming a great AVG hitter as all the funny stats show.
the problem is: why should anybody not let him hit when he hits singles with nobody on?
there is no reason to walk Ellsbury when he is AB with empty bases cause of lack of power.
H or BB for Ells does not make a difference for the pitcher besides that he can make an out when he throws strikes.
by OilCanBoyd on Jun 4, 2009 4:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wrong!
Jacoby has a great point. The obp of Ricky,crawford and abreau are higher because they can hit for power. Jacoby hits a lot of grounders and low liners. Thus a pitcher has no fear of throwing a lot of strikes. I agree with Jacoby, but because of his shortcomings. And Defensively, is it me or does he make a lot of misplays? not errors, but missing ball that could be caught. Mis-timed jumps scared of the wall things.
the difference between a yankee stadium hot dog and a Fenway frank is that they dont sell yankee dogs in October anymore.
by fishfarmr on Jun 4, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So we should just ignore the fact that he swings on a high number of pitches outside the strike zone?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 4, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that means he still thinks he could be a power hitter.
And I agree with the defense thing – he’s getting overly cautious and not relying on his natural instinct as much.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 4, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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