Bullpen Usage
by drabidea on Jun 29, 2009 10:06 PM EDT
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PrintOne thing that has been a constant all year has been our Bullpen. It is the best in the Majors with a 2.92 ERA. However, how good has it been? If you look at some of the side stats we are not as dominating as it may seem. We are currently 7th in FIP with 3.93. We also have the highest LOB% of any bullpen with a staggering 80.9%.
This has alot to do with our 3rd lowest HR/FB ratio of 6.9%. On the other hand we also have by far the highest IFFB% of 15.6%. This seems pretty reasonable considering we have alot of "fastball" style pitchers that will give up the homeruns once and a while but also get alot of pop ups. The "lower" FIP seems to indicate that the bullpen will start to come back down to earth (which they already seem to have).
Looking at our bullpen, there really does not seem to be a weak link. Almost every pitcher seems to be capable of being a closer on any other team. In previous years you could tell who would be coming in for what inning. (2007, Delcarmen or Lopez for the 7th, Oki for the 8th, and Paps for the 9th) This year, other than the 9th inning, I never have any idea who will be brought in to pitch. I asked the question earlier in preseason, Who should Tito put in more high pressure situations. Currently the gmLI or leverage index for when a pitcher comes into the game order has been Paps (1.70), Oki (1.60), RamRam (1.41), Masterson (1.07), Delcarmen (0.96), Saito (0.49), and Bard (0.32).
Overall, our Bullpen has been great and has given us a record better then we should have (see 3rd degree runs scored/allowed). Their results have been slightly better than they have been performing and we could see a drop during the season. On the flip side, I think Paps has lost some control and will probably get it back and Bard is only going to get better. Don't worry Red Sox Nation, the bullpen will be incredible all season long.
Some random bullpen Tidbits. Highest K/9 Oki (9.72). Lowest BB/9 RamRam (2.97). Best FIP Bard (3.00). Worst FIP RamRam (4.43). Look for RamRam to crash, he is not pitching well enough for his 1.89 ERA.
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Oh that's awesome
None of my line spacing went through.
Sorry guys.
I can add some spaces and break it into paragraphs
using my awesome editorial skills. Would you like that?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Can someone please call up Paps and ask him where his splitter went?
I am so sick of seeing 8 fastballs in a row out of him. Why the hell can’t anyone ask him that question but they ask him if he wants to join the Yanks every 5 minutes
I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.
Probably a casualty of his new throwing mechanics.
He may feel that he can’t throw it as well as he would like, and therefore stays away from it.
I’ve heard rumblings that he’s losing the cutter to keep his arm healthier. Anyone know if the cutter can be more harmful to the arm? if so he could be protecting his payday.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
They said the same thing about Lester
That they didn’t want him to use the cutter so much, that is. On the other hand, it’s worked for Rivera for all of these years, so who knows.
Yeah, it's not like it's cut Mo's career short.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
Red Sox Bullpen Management in Seven Easy Steps
- Paps is the closer.
- Saito is the backup closer when needed.
- Masterson is the “long relief” guy most likely to go multiple innings.
- Neither Masterson nor Bard is brought in if a string of lefties is due up and other options are available.
- Okajima, Ramirez, and Delcarmen rotate in the late-inning duties, including the 9th when no save is up for grabs.
- Bard usually comes in for low-leverage situations (up or down big), or in the last game of a series when (almost) everybody else has been used.
- Very rarely will a pitcher be asked to come in three days in a row.
Very rarely will a pitcher be asked to come in three days in a row.
This is one of the great things about having such a strong ‘pen. We don’t need to overwork anyone; not even our closer. The MFY would love that luxury.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
No one in the bullpen has pitched more than 35.0 innings so far
With the exception of Masterson, whose total is obviously bloated because of his half-dozen starts (plus emergency four innings of relief for Matsuzaka).
Masterson's going to be the 100IP+ guy out of the pen.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
Saito
If he is the backup closer. Why is his leverage so low?
He's the closer
Because the number of times a backup closer has been needed has been relatively small this season, and because Tito will also bring Saito into games late if the Sox are down 2 or 3 runs. He gets the work, and Papelbon gets the night off.
Not that it matters
but I still believe if its a big game in the 7th or 8th, Okie is the guy. I cannot count how many times the Red Sox have put him in critical situations. Its just an experience thing. I know Okie, I trust him.
It will be interesting when Aug. and Sept and even the playoffs rolls around to see who will be reliable. Just a hunch but I am betting if Saito is still a Red Sox he will get more opportunities bc of his experience as a closer and handling pressure.
Proposed caveat
Except with inherited runners?
I’m still smarting from that stretch last season. I think he let a visiting fan score once…
Otherwise, +1
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 30, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he's gotten better about it, IIRC.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
Remember, the defense ain't great, so FIP's are going to be pretty good compared to the ERA's.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
The fielding has been better lately
The Sox are now at league average for fielding. Considering how far below average they were earlier this season, that means they have had to have a stretch that was considerably above average to get there.
Coinciding with Lugo’s consistent spot on the bench…
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
And Green's growing familiarity with SS.
He had something like six errors in April, three last month, and just one this month.
For sure.
At first I didn’t realize how little SS the guy had played. Before this season he had only started 10 games at SS. He has definitely improved.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
League average? By what measure?
UZR has the Sox as still well below average (though not second worst, as they were a week or two ago). They’re at -17.7, ahead of only four teams in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Rays lead baseball at 30.2.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
DER has them 28th in baseball
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Still that bad?
I guess it’s the difference between errors and overall defensive performance. Their range is somewhat limited, but they’re making a lot fewer errors on the plays they should make.
Yes, but an error is now only called when the player makes contact with the ball, it seems.
So you can’t exactly look at Fielding Percentage.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
RamRam
One thing people need to realize is that RamRam is a very one sided pitcher. I don’t quite understand why Tito often brings him in to face lefties. In his career, RamRam has a 748 OPS against facing LHB and a 560 facing RHB. His BAA is .365 agains LHB and 0.193 against RHB and his K/BB is 2.78 against RHB and only 1.68 against LHB. I wouldn’t call him a “right handed one out guy” but it is unclear why Tito uses him the way he does. MDC is much better against LHB as a RHP, but is not as tough on RHB and has control issues. I agree with SoxAcumen, Oki is really still the primary setup guy: his tRA is 2.61-the next closest guys in the pen (Masterson and MDC) are FAR away at around 3.3.
That scared me for a second.
Too bad we can’t swap them in and out during late innings. I do not want to have to make that decision in the postseason, esp. if it’s early in the series.
OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.
I think Bard needs some more seasoning.
This was discussed the other night, but I’d like to see Buchholz take his spot in the pen. He needs time facing major league hitters – this would allow it without forcing anyone else out of the rotation. Buch needs to chillax, and I can’t think of a better way than playing bullpen drums with MDC et al…
Manny ain't the only bad man.
+1
assuming we see that Smoltz can do it. If not, we will need to put Smoltz in the pen, call up Buch, and send Bard down.
or if Saito gets moved
same with Smoltz and Buch and they keep Bard in the bp.
Personally, I really want the Sox to keep both Penny and Saito. Injuries happen and even with Buchholz and Bowden as insurance, I would rather move them up when the Sox want too, not when they need too.
The one thing that separates the Sox from the Yanks and Rays is our bullpen depth, I just don’t like taking away from our strength, however small the reduction might be.
I agree
Unless, of course, thay can get something very good—which is unlikely.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 30, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Smoltz probably will not go to the pen
He’s more likely to follow Dice-K to the DL than head to the pen.
I only
suggested it because he has been successful from the pen in the past and because Bard could go back down without too much harm to him or the team…
My Bad
I suppose this fanpost brought bad Karma onto the Bullpen and blew their 9 run lead.
I wouldn't worry about it.
One way to look at it is this: the Sox blew an easy to win game, but those bad performances from the entire pen could have been spread out across two, three, maybe four close games. I’d always take 1 incredible loss over three close losses.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
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