And I’d prefer to subscribe to the theory of “If it’s imperfect, why not improve?”

3rd-order W-L puts us in 3rd place in the division, in a virtual tie with the Yanks and behind the Rays: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now, sure, it’s easy to pass that off as over-analysing and hide behind the shiny record, but that’s what the LA Angels tried to do last year and look where it got ’em?

Your lineup analysis is a bit too optimistic for me, and a bit full of mentions of “good clubhouse guys” and other truisms.

Pedroia has been slumping hard and DOES need to go somewhere: to the 2 spot. Nothing helps Petey more than having holes in the infield or having guys in at DP depth. He’s a great ground ball and bloop hitter, and having a guy on base is huge for him.

I think we need to test to see if Ellsbury is improving because of his lineup spot. I think it’s the case, personally, since pitchers should be more likely to throw him balls without the threat of Petey the ultimate RISP base-hit man behind him to knock him in from second after a steal. But it’s certainly worth checking to see if Jacoby can maintain his OBP in the leadoff spot.

If not Ellsbury, the team should think about slotting Drew in leadoff (the movement is reborn?). JD seems intent on taking a bunch of pitches in every AB, so why not move him into the vacant spot to try and give Petey the help he needs. Also of note for Drew is how well the Drew-Rocco platoon has worked of late. The Sox need to keep that going.

Youk and Bay NEED to be switched around. I don’t understand the thinking here. Youk is fantastic at working long counts and deals well with pitchers who don’t throw him strikes. Bay walks plenty, too, but if you don’t think he’d like to see more fastballs as a result of the protection of a guy whose OPS is above one, you’re crazy.

The calls for Ortiz to be removed, or sent down, or whatever weren’t as crazy as you make them out to be. The guy was KILLING US, and had been on a trend of decline measuring in at over a year. The fact is that he’s having a great June, and nobody loves it more than me, but talking about a guy’s clubhouse impact when he’s putting up an OPS of .600 from the DH position is far too sentimental. I applaud the club for their patient approach (though if Nick Johnson was REALLY on the table for MDC, I will rage), but if he hadn’t improved in June, it would be foolish to keep him in the starting lineup.

I’ve no problem with Tek or Green. Tek is showing worrying signs of decline, but unless we can pick up V-Mart it’s not like there’s a ready replacement for this year. Green needs to learn some plate discipline, but it’s really all about expectations for him—ones which he has far exceeded.

My biggest problem with your post is the bit about Lowell, in that if we lose Lowell for a few games here and there—or the next 10 right now—Kotsay/Lowrie/Green/Youk will be able to work something out in the infield. But if Lowell’s problem is more significant, then we can’t sit around using 3 of those guys in the lineup on a day-to-day basis. In fact, as it is, the team needs to take a long, hard look at Lowell, whose offensive numbers are good only in comparison to his defensive numbers. If there’s one position that’s dragging us down right now, it’s whichever corner infield position isn’t being run by Youk.

Best case scenario, Lowell takes a few days off and gets back to the numbers he had about a month ago—not great, but serviceable—and the Sox can just move on from that.

But the Sox should keep a worst case scenario in mind, and not quite get off the phone with all those big bat folks they were talking to earlier in the year.

Wow, that reply got a little out of handle. Ah well, take from it what you will.

You’re always either improving and declining – never staying the same.

Year—- W-L%——- Finish——- Playoffs——————BA
2009—-.618———-1st of 5 -————————————-7
2008—-.586———- 2nd of 5—— Lost ALCS -———-2
2007—-.593———-1st of 5——— Won WS————— 5
2006—-.531———-3rd of 5—————————————-12
2005——586———-2nd of 5——- Lost LDS—————1
2004——605———-2nd of 5———Won WS—————1
2003——586———-2nd of 5———Lost ALCS————1

I was wondering if the Sox record this year was good mainly because of offense or mainly because of pitching. I am not a stat wizard, but I thought I would look at some stats related to batting ave for the last 6 years. There are not super clear trends, but the team batting ave this year is not as good as years they have won leagues and championships. In 2004, the team was number one in ave, but in 2007 they were 5th. This year they are 7th so far. So maybe they can still win if the pitching holds up, but their hitting ave is borderline compared to other good years.