Decisions, decisions: Smoltz and Lowrie looming
With the imminent return of John Smoltz and the start of a minor-league rehab assignment for Jed Lowrie set to begin in Pawtucket on Sunday, Decision Day for the Sox is rapidly approaching with respect to both the pitching staff and the middle infield. A lot of ink---real and virtual---has already been spilled on the starting pitching issue, so I'd like to put the spotlight here on the shortstop/utility infielder dilemma that will arise.
Of course, the pitching situation has gotten the lion's share of the ink, especially because Smoltz is a much higher-profile "call-up" than Lowrie is. However, I suspect that Dice-K's most recent disastrous start may make the situation a little clearer. Right now, would anyone want to bet against a second all-expenses-paid trip to the beautiful, luxurious 15-day Disabled List for Matsuzaka? That leaves a five-man rotation of Jon Lester, Smoltz, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny, with Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden waiting in the wings in case of emergency or injury.
The scenario that has drawn less attention in recent days, I think, is the middle infield. While it's clear that Nick Green has usurped Julio Lugo as the de facto starter at SS, there is the question of what to do when Lowrie has recovered from his Pawtucket rehab stint. Granted, because of the rules in place governing rehab stints, Lowrie's return could coincide with the end of the All-Star Break, which would give the Sox a month to make up their minds about what path to take, it might be worth considering now.
Ultimately, the decision comes down to what to do with the Nine Million Dollar Man. Based on the relative playing times for Lugo and Green in the past month, the Sox clearly feel much more confident with Green on the field. However, to make room for Lowrie, they need to let go of either Lugo or Green. I don't see the Sox being able to trade Lugo for anything more than a minor-league prospect, and that's even with them eating most of the $15 million remaining on his contract. At the same time, I believe the Sox would be much more confident with a platoon of Lowrie and Green than they would be with a Lowrie-Lugo platoon. In addition, the Sox have shown the willingness lately to bench Lugo for extended periods of time, so the notion that Lugo's contract will force the Sox to keep him in the lineup no longer carries the same weight it did in the offseason.
I suspect the success of Lowrie's rehab stint will be a significant factor in determining the Sox's urgency. Right now, I think the most likely scenario will be that Green goes down to Pawtucket for a few weeks when Lowrie comes up. If Lowrie performs up to the Sox's expectations, then I think that the Sox will have more motivation to find a reason to get Lugo off the roster and bring Green back up as the utility infielder. If Lowrie struggles, then he can be exchanged for Green in the lineup, as Lowrie has minor league options remaining.
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Green has been impressive
Really, get rid of Lugo. I dont care how. Trade him for a low-level prospect and eat some of his salary. Really its time to cut you’re losses, the one redeeming thing I saw in him last year (his speed) seems to have decreased as well. Green is cost controlled, can play virtually anywhere, and has been solid with the bat. Lugo has already made it clear that he is not happy on the bench, even with Lowrie back he won’t be seeing the majority of time at SS, as was put in the article. I don’t see Julio just sitting back and taking that in stride.They did it with Rent-A-Reck after one season…I don’t see why Theo is so attached to Lugo. I mean, shit, I havent even heard any legitimate trade rumors with his name involved.
by ritz on Jun 20, 2009 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You haven't heard anything because Lugo can't be traded at value
Or even close to it, and you’re not going to hear Olney or Gammons or the Globe or Herald announcing trade rumors of Lugo for a AA or AAA prospect.
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wanna know whats wierd...
Both have been very good offensively. Lugo has a .773 OPS and Green has .781. For a SS that is better than solid. We should be happy with the offense that we’ve gotten from them and should hope that Lowrie can match that production.
But defensively it has been laughably bad. Julio Lugo has a UZR/150 of -33.5 and Green of -8.3. To put Lugo’s number into context, over the course of a season the difference in the field between Lugo and the Cardinals’ Brandon Ryan (the league leader in UZR/150) is about 7 wins. 7 wins! That is the same as the difference between 2008 Albert Pujols and 2008 Julio Lugo. Its hard to believe that he is actually that bad (or that Brandon Ryan is that good), but even if he was twice as good, he would still be one of the worst fielding SS’s in the league.
If anyone is dumb enough to give us anything for Lugo, take it and run. But I think we’ll have to DFA him and I think we should do it. Cut our losses.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 20, 2009 2:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The difference in their offensive productions is consistency
Green is a lot steadier at the plate. He’ll have some good hits and a bunch of strikeouts, but you’ll usually get 4 hits or so in a three-game series.
Lugo is much more bimodal—-he’s either going 0-for-a series, or hitting 4-for-5. It’d be great if you could know which Lugo would show up on any given day.
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just looking at Lugo’s gamelog, he raised his OPS almost 100 points in his last three games; like you said. Still, the point is that their offense is not the issue. This is all about defense.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 20, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Green’s defense is improving, though. Although he has nine errors, he’s only had one since May 24 or so. I suspect with Green, the problem was unfamiliarity with playing SS (before this year, he had played 22 games at SS, compared to about 190 at 2B). There’s definitely signs of improvement.
And he has a much better arm than Lugo (or Lowrie, for that matter). Green has a sniper rifle for an arm; in comparison, Lowrie has a 9-millimeter, and Lugo has an 18th-century musket rifle.
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which one of you Drunken Goons voted for Lugo at SS
I mean really, they should get a threatening e-mail from the mods or something to make them fear for their lives. Probably trolls.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Jun 20, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
[burp]
Bwah?
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 20, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
I asked what “will” happen, not what “should” happen. That’s why I even put that option in there in the first place.
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, then it's a matter of prediction, not choice.
Polls are supposed to be about choice, unless you live in Iran.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 20, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo
Lugo’s defense has never been this bad over the stretch of an entire season. In fact, he has a career UZR/150 of 3.2 at SS. If I had to guess I’d say he’d regress back to his 2007 and 2008 fielding production, making him an average SS in terms of fielding. Offensively he’s doing great with a .348 wOBA. So seriously guys, stop hating on Lugo so much, he’s not THAT bad.
by Gnick on Jun 20, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But can he get back to the mean?
The lack of range is due to his injury, and there’s no guarantee that he can rebound.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jun 20, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that's because he had one really good year (2004).
His time with the Sox have been absolutely dreadful. He was on pace for 32 errors last year before his injuries. He’s clearly lost a step or two in range compared to last year.
However, as I stated above, the Sox have weighed in on this decision: Green right now is the de facto starter until Lowrie returns. If that isn’t an indication of what they think of Lugo’s ability to bounce back, what else is?
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had an UZR/150 of 4.3 for the Sox in 2007.
by Gnick on Jun 20, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the metrics in the world can't change the fact that he was just awful.
He managed to give up outs in the worst possible situation without fail.
by USG on Jun 20, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which he then compensated for with an OPS of .650
He was far worse than even a one-armed Lowrie at the plate.
But the main reason he’s earned the ire of Red Sox fans is that he was sold with a false bill of goods. He was supposed to be the shortstop that stopped the merry-go-round, and was being paid accordingly. He has not consistently played according to the expectations of someone who was and I believe still is the third-highest-paid position player on the team. (He will make about $1.5 MM more than Bay this year!)
by lone1c on Jun 20, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know why everyone hates Lugo
I too was thoroughly disappointed in his 2007 performance after he was touted as the Sox’s SS solution for the next four years. But at this point I think we’re letting emotion get in the way of unbiased analysis. He has had a good fielding year with the Sox (2007), and he’s hitting well this year, so if his fielding is closer to league average or slightly below average from here on out and he continues to hit well than he could be a valuable asset.
by Gnick on Jun 23, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, see, this is why we hate him:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=565&position=SS#value
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 23, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at his overall numbers
He hasn’t been overvalued over the course of his entire career, he’s been worth $52 million but only paid $29.4 mil. As recently as 2005 he was one of the top SS in the league.
by Gnick on Jun 25, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But with the Sox he has been horrid. I think we will mostly likely DFA him or trade him (for almost nothing and pay his entire salary). So it will end up that we’ve paid the guy $36M for 1.8 wins. Terrible.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Jun 25, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This.
We didn’t pay him to be good for other teams, we payed him to be good for US.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 25, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is how he got the contract
He was good when he played for TB. If the Sox had gotten that guy, there wouldn’t be any complaints. But the player who showed up is substantially inferior to the one that was signed.
by lone1c on Jun 25, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His fielding ability was never good to begin with
And it has clearly gotten worse since his return from surgery. He has lost an additional step or two off of his range, and no longer can get to low rolling grounders. With Lowell recovering from hip surgery, playing Lugo at the same time in left field is an open invitation to disaster. Remember Lester’s start where there were five grounders hit between SS and 3B in the same inning? That’s what you’ll get when Lugo is in the field.
At this point, it’s going to be tough for him to win back the starter’s job, especially since Tito’s barely giving him any playing time. Without that, there’s no way he’s a valuable enough asset to justify a $9 million salary.
by lone1c on Jun 24, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now we just have to hope that his salary isn't a large enough asset in Theo's eyes to prevent his being cut.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 24, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Theo thinks that
Somebody needs to introduce him to a definition of “asset.”
If you look up “liability” in a dictionary, you’ll see a photo of Lugo’s contract next to it.
by lone1c on Jun 25, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to put quotation marks around "asset." My bad.
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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 25, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The main question is
Will Lowrie be healthy? I think one of two things will happen: Lugo will be flat out released, or Lowrie will hit the 60 day DL and stay there until rosters expand. The way Nick Green is playing, the Red Sox won’t jerk him around to salvage Lugo.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Jun 24, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is another option
Lowrie stays at Pawtucket while the Sox figure out how to unload Lugo. He has options remaining, so there’s no reason to lose Lowrie’s services for even longer just because they can’t figure out how to get rid of Lugo.
by lone1c on Jun 25, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That assumes that Lugo's potential value > win differential with Lowrie in Boston
Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Jun 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Putting Lowrie on the 60-day list means he can't come off of it until nearly September 1
So even if you find a way to move Lugo, Lowrie’s not available. Leaving him in Pawtucket lets him be available when the time comes.
by lone1c on Jun 27, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It can't be done retroactively?
It seems about 60 days since he went on the DL.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jun 27, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can make it retroactive up to 10 days.
So it’d be at least a 50-day stint if he were moved to the DL.
by lone1c on Jun 27, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even when transferring from the 15 to 60 day?
I never knew that.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jun 27, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More importantly
There’s a limit on the amount of time you can spend on rehab stints coming off the DL. That’s why, if they can’t move Lugo and are unwilling to release him, they are better off letting Lowrie stay in Pawtucket.
by lone1c on Jun 27, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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