In Defense of Daisuke

by 0157H7 on Jun 17, 2009 12:59 PM EDT Comment 22 comments

On this site and across the web, there's been a lot of ire directed at the Phenom from Nippon, Daisuke Matsuzaka. People are so angry at his performance this season that they are talking about drastic moves: trade him, bench him, throw him on the disabled list with a phantom injury. But is this anger really justified?

Let's take a look at two players, seven starts into their respective seasons.

Player 1: 7 g, 2-5 record, 38.1 innings, 32 R, 6 HR, 18 BB, 37 K, 7.51 ERA
Player 2: 7 g, 1-4 record, 31 innings, 26 R, 7 HR, 14 BB, 32 K, 7.55 ERA

Not terribly impressive. If a callup from Pawtucket was throwing that poorly, he'd be sent down to AAA faster than you can say "There are two Hs in Buchholz." So who are these players?

Player 2 is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Player 1 is C C Sabathia, 7 games into 2008. As you may recall, Sabathia went on to pitch 253 innings for the season with a 2.70 ERA. He was so good in Milwaukee that some people suggested him for the Cy Young award.

Daisuke has had a disappointing start to the season, but we need to remember that his season is still in the early stages. While he is unlikely to have the sort of success that CC did, there is no reason that he cannot be better than he is now.

What is behind the ire towards Matsuzaka? Well, the sort of performances he gives are difficult to watch. Most baseball fans hate walks, frequent bases-loaded situations, and 5 or 6 inning starts. We prefer the Josh Becketts and Curt Schillings of the game, who barely walk anyone. Compared to them, Dice-BB Walksuwalka doesn't look so good.

But last year, at least, Dice-K was very reliable. You could count on him for 5-6 innings, 0-2 runs. I would take a 2008 start by Matsuzaka over a start by 2008 Beckett every time. With Beckett, who had a much better FIP and by many qualitative measures was the better player, the Red Sox had a losing record (13-14) while he was on the mound. Part of that was lousy run support, but he also was prone to giving up big home runs. His performance wasn't what you'd want out of the staff ace.

Getting back to Matsuzaka, three years into his MLB career, we don't really know what kind of pitcher he is. He excels in Japanese and WBC baseball, but something about the Major Leagues - perhaps the ball, maybe tougher competition, is holding him back. It's not too late for him to turn his season around, just ask Sabathia about bad starts. More importantly, it's not too late for him to turn his MLB career around.

Some people on OTM have said Dice-K's pitches are just bad and that he is not cut out for the majors. Fangraphs provides some insight on the relative strength of Dice-K's arsenal. Last year, his fastball was 3.1 runs above average, his cutter was 3.5 runs above average, and his slider was 15 runs above average. This year, all those values are down, although the slider, cutter and curve are close to league average. In 2007, his first year in MLB, Dice-K's best pitches were his slider (2.1 runs a.avg.) and cutter (8.9 runs a.avg.). Claiming Dice-K doesn't have major-league quality pitches, and is accordingly a bad pitcher, doesn't fit the evidence.

We should also consider that Dice-K is suffering, like the rest of the team, from atrocious defense behind him. Even with some improved performance lately (Green's #s at SS have gotten better) the team is still 4th worst in baseball in UZR and UZR/150.

All of Dice-K's stats are retrospective, and they incorporate recovering from the WBC as well as coming off the DL. In baseball, past isn't always prologue, especially with a unique pitcher like Dice-K. I have a lot of confidence that he'll get stronger and pitch better as the season progresses. There is no need for a panic move.

Furthermore, even if Dice-K isn't tearing through lineups, his presence on the team is valuable. He helps to draw Japanese talent in - Junichi Tazawa is an example. Yu Darvish, a 22-year-old starter from Japan, may be the next target, and having a Japanese superstar already on board may help convince him to sign on with the Sox.

Poll

How will Dice-K pitch for the rest of the year?

He'll figure it out and be significantly better. 3.00 ERA the rest of the way.

211 votes

He'll be slightly better, but no better than mediocre. 4.50 to 5.00 ERA for the remaining months.

184 votes

He'll continue to give us terrible performances.

32 votes

I don't know.

30 votes

Dude, why aren't you using tRA? All the cool kids are - you can take a hit right now. You aren't into that? Ok. You're calling the cops on me? Ok. Sorry I asked. Dude.

18 votes

475 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Not sure I understand the point

1)No one said a healthy Dice-K is a bad pitcher.
2)Player 2 always has been a better pticher than player 1.
3)hard to argue the defense point so far. he has a crazy high LD%, has given up a ton of HRs, is wild (6 WPs in a game, can’t locate pitches based on where catcher is setting up)…is our defense helping? No, but that is beside the point.
4)I agree about the Japan issue, but I think you are overstating the importance of Japan as a pipeline. How many great Japanese players, especially pitchers, are actually out there? Sure, we have 4 (counting Tazawa), but somehow I think the Sox could still have signed Saito and Oki anyway, nor would they suffer so much without Japanese players. It is nice to know that Japan like the Sox, and Japanese players might want to come to play for the Sox, but let’s not overstate the case.

I agree that Dice deserves some more cracks. I don’t know how many. But he simply is not right. If he does not turn that around soon, there is no reason to continue down that road. Lat year, that cost us many losses when Buch was not right, but we did not have the depth to counteract it. This is different than the Papi case, since we do not have to trade anything-we likely have 4 guys (Smoltz, Buchholz, Masterson and Bowden) that can be at least as effective (and likely more) than Dice.

by Buzzy on Jun 17, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

No one ever said Dice-K was bad. He just isn’t an elite pitcher. Sabathia is a much better pitcher who logs significant innings. At his best, Dice-K is a 5.2 to 6-inning starter.

I’m in total agreement with Buzzy about the defense issue. Matsuzaka is getting smacked around. I also agree about the Japanese pipeline. I’m not sure how valuable it is in terms of players, and whether players would boycott the Sox based on what happens to another player from their country.

I have never been impressed with Dice-K’s stuff. It simply hasn’t been as advertised. His fastball isn’t overpowering, and he isn’t successful if he has to rely on it because his control is spotty at best. That said, he shouldn’t be as bad as he is right now. Something is clearly wrong with him physically. As Buzzy points out, the Sox have four potential replacements: Masterson, Smoltz, Buchholz, and Bowden. Our #5, Penny, has pitched better. How long do we wait for Dice-K to turn things around this year (no one is suggesting that we get rid of him)?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jun 17, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By FIP

Penny is as good this year as Dice-K circa 2007-2008. Not suggesting that that is a true indicator that he is actually as good, but it is interesting…

by Buzzy on Jun 17, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I

should have said similar, not quite as good-but similar.

by Buzzy on Jun 17, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They wouldn't boycott

The MFY really jerked around Hideki Irabu, but that didn’t stop Hideki Matsui from joining them.

by RSNexile on Jun 17, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course they won't

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jun 17, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The comparison to Sabathia is interesting

but also keep in mind that the Indians were already well out of contention. They could afford to let Sabathia figure it out in the majors. The Sox are in a very tough division that’ll come down to jsut a few games. I have no doubt that Daisuke could figure it out, but we can’t afford to let him figure it out on the job. He needs some rehab starts to get himself straight.

by BigRedDog42 on Jun 17, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dice-K's a professional, and I think he'll figure it out.

Though I’d put him at at 3.50-4.00 ERA for the rest of the year.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 17, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

when fully healthy

Dice-K is a quality 3-4 guy in the rotation, a 4 ERA type of guy who keeps his team in the game for 5-6 innings. I think that guy can help the Sox. But lets not overstate the rarity of such pitchers.

by Buzzy on Jun 17, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No kidding

The Sox have four or five other guys who could do the same or better, all just waiting for their shot.

by RSNexile on Jun 17, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Japan pipeline has many gems

Darvish is just the most popular name to throw around. He does not want to be posted, he wants to be a FA (for obvious reasons $$$$) and I doubt he will come to the MLB until the posting policy is changed. Darvish and Dice-K are buddies from the WBC and Darvish has said he considers his relationship with Dice-K a mentor type of situation. Plus Darvish’s dad LOVES Boston, worked in New England and HATES NYC.

But there are others:

Yusei Kikuchi – this years Junichi Tazawa, lefty has great stuff and its highly speculated he will be the 2nd player to jump from high school to MLB. http://baseball81.com/yusei_kikuchi.html – basic information on him. Everyone believes he will sign with a MLB team and be the player who instigates a change to Asian players coming to MLB and a restructuring of the posting system, maybe an Asian player draft.

Toshiya Sugiuchi – the lefty reliever that dominated the WBC. Harder throwing version of Okie, forkball, change, curve, slider and a 93-94 fastball. Main pitch is his slider.

Hisashi Iwakuma – big strong righty who dominated the WBC, he has 5 pitches, throws in the mid 90s. He was better than both Dice-K and Darvish in the WBC. His main pitch is a Fausto type sinker he throws around 92-93 and he will be over in the MLB soon. The guy has a lot of potential.

Yuki Saito – the next Dice-K, 18 year old, everyone thinks this guy is gonna be huge. He was 2nd only to Steven Strasburg in the 2008 World University Championship. But he is a die-hard Yankee fan, so whatever. 5’9" though and that scares people.

Aoki Norichika OF – this guy could be a really effective player in the MLB. He is Ichiro-lite with power. Approach at the plate like Ichiro, 20 hr power, not as good an arm, super fast 30 sb potential, but a guy who could be an amazing player. Unfortunately, he has stated he wants to come over to the MLB and will be posted soon and I bet most good teams will be in on him. Yankees included. SO he will cost a lot, most likely more that Fukudome. If he stays in Japan a few years longer, he could be a perfect replacement for JD Drew.

by SoxAcumen on Jun 17, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

but it is hard to know until you see these guys in the majors. My point being that they number of truly great Japanese players is confined to a very small #. My other point being that there is no reason that the Sox can’t compete for these guys anyway. In fact Dice K made statements to the Japanese media last night that he fully understands that the team can’t stick with him indefinitely through his struggles.

by Buzzy on Jun 17, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im not saying any of these guys will be MLB stars

all i am saying is that Japan is a very fertile baseball country and Dice-K and the Japanese friendly atmosphere are the main reasons all these guys, Saito excluded, want to play for Boston.

So do you want to have access and first choice of these guys or play catch up?

I would also argue that when you compare the Japanese players who have jumped to the MLB, there are many players who have “made it” v. guys who haven’t been able to hack the competition. Don’t forget guys like Iguchi, Hasegawa, Nomo, Mastui (both), Shingo, Otsuka and Iwamura, all contributed to MLB teams. I bet its close to 50/50.

As for Dice-K, he needs time off to get himself right. Put him on the DL, rebuild his shoulder and stuff and he will be back to the Houdini wanna be he was last year. He is a professional and a winner. I have faith in his determination to compete in the MLB and to help the Red Sox win.

by SoxAcumen on Jun 17, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even beyond talent

The Red Sox stand to make a lot of $ in broadcasting deals with NESN that is not subject to MLB revenue sharing. Cha-CHING!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 17, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ooh...

Is Eck gonna lead the Japanese broadcasts? :)

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 17, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if "cheese" goes with a seaweed "salad."

It’s an Eck thing.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 18, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one would ever mistake Dice-K for Sabathia

Here’s another key difference: Dice-K’s numbers were good last year despite how he pitched, and he’s actually been a mediocre pitcher the entire time he’s played for the Sox — he just was incredibly lucky last season. Sabathia, on the other hand, proved in 2007 that he could be one of the best pitchers in the game and just had a bad start.

When a mediocre pitcher has a terrible start to the season, it’s a little different from when the defending Cy Young winner has a terrible start.

by RSNexile on Jun 17, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jun 17, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On an unrelated subject Ellsbury is batting 2nd tonight.

Let me be the first to say, “wha?”

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 17, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's been batting second for a few games.

It’s been working, though.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 17, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I blame the WBC.

I just don’t see any other explanation. People say it’s because he’s throwing strikes when he can’t be that guy, but we’ve seen him do it successfully on a game-to-game basis. But he doesn’t exactly produce when using his old methods, either. It’s not easy to figure out a pitcher’s problem, but when they’ve got crazy LD% and HR numbers, it means they’re getting hit HARD. There’s a reason why pitchers are eased into starting via. Spring Training and rehab starts of 2 or 3 innings, and Daisuke was taken from that and instead thrown into what must be for him the most important games of his career barring previous WBC appearances.

Obviously, he was lucky last year, and has been somewhat unlucky this year, but I think it’s got to have something to do with his unusual start to the season.

As for people making rash decisions, well, right now this team looks like it’s in a really great position to go all the way this year. Our 1 & 2 pitchers are both pitching like top-of the rotation guys. Wakefield has been incredibly solid. All the pieces of the lineup seem to be falling in place with Ellsbury getting on base, Papi seeming to come out of his slump, and the catching position actually producing. We’ve also got a bullpen where one of the biggest question marks is Jonathan ****ing Papelbon. I mean, come on. So when there’s a guy who’s consistently not towing his weight blocking a guy in, say, Buchholz who for all the world looks ready to be a major league starter—well the problem seems to solve itself.

by Ben Buchanan on Jun 17, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also worth noting

Is that a DL trip could be spun very positively. This organization is known for taking incredibly good care of its pitchers. If the Sox shut Daisuke down, it’s because he’s not feeling it—and he’s made that comment publicly—and the organization wants to protect its investment even if it means they have to lose a few more starts.

by Ben Buchanan on Jun 17, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs