I was eating brunch while typing this, so I probably have typos through-out.

I’m thinking that his statistical issues are caused by being more hittable this year.

He is striking guys out (9.29 K/9) and walking guys less than he did last year (4.06 BB/9 compared to 5.05 in 2008). He is giving up an absurdly high BABIP of .443. However, that appears to be in line with his LD% of 29.2% (using the rough LD%+ .120 = expected BABIP rule of thumb). Basically he his getting hit much harder this year as shown by his higher LD% and absurdly high HR/FB of 16%. I think he’s been unlucky, but only a little bit. We probably should not expect any better than an ERA in line with his FIP (5.40) unless something drastically changes.

(1) The six Cy Young voters who gave Matsuzaka votes clearly didn’t look past his W-L record. But note that nobody picked him first; he only received second- and third-place votes.

(2) As a free agent without five years’ service time, I do not believe that Matsuzaka can be demoted to the minor leagues, even if he consents. I believe the only way to do it is via an extended DL stint.

Also, kinda a dig at the writers – I show how average he really was, then mention that the supposed experts couldn’t figure that out.

What specifically don’t you get? A lot of the stats can be figured out with a quick Google or a search on FanGraph’s front page. Any other stuff, you can ask us and we should be able to help you.

1. He was supposed to have a repertoire almost twice the size of any decent American pitcher, with good control, velocity, and movement on all of the pitches.
2. He was also supposed to have the mythical gyroball – I’m not gonna say any more b/c that’s a huge debate.
3. He threw 250 pitches in a high school game, and threw a ton everyday. His stamina was supposed to be through the roof, and I think people were expecting him to be throwing complete games every time out, like Doc or something. Unfortunately, Tito and Theo obviously don’t think it’s worth the risk to allow Dice to throw like he did in Japan.

I think you are overstating his “worthlessness” a little bit. He pitched two full seasons in which he was a very good starter in the league. He only makes $8M per year. That is not much for a starting pitcher. I think he’s injured. He has lost a little off his fastball and is throwing meatballs that are getting hit very, very hard.

Also, Aren’t HR’s the worst possible outcome here as well in Japan? No pitcher can do any worse than a HR, in any country.

I think the difference this time around was that he reverted to the Japanese throwing programs while with his fellow countrymen, and his body was too adjusted to the American paranoid-pitch-count programs. We really should have let him continue his preferred program when we first signed him, with a clause in his contract that protects us if his arm broke down.

The change in arm slot alarms me, though I’m not sure if the 6" difference or if the fact that his arm is up now makes it less of a red flag.

Single = 0.042, non-intentional walk = 0.028. Both are as important, roughly, as a home run, when you look at the Runs/Win column of the same table.

The difference in WHIP last year between Peavy and Dice-K is about 1.5 baserunners per 9 innings. Using the run values chart, this is anywhere from .5 runs (2 walks) to 2.1 runs (2 HR’s) per game. It would probably be something in between, but is the difference between a 3.00 and 4.00 ERA (though did not end up like this because of Dice-K’s good fortune last year).

For the BA case, in 500 AB’s, that is 15 extra hits, which is anywhere from 7ish runs to 22ish runs. That could be up to 2 full wins per season, which is definitely important.

What this last two minutes taught me more than anything is the limitations of both WHIP and AVG.

has a great sense of humour!

Ha. Is there a way to rec NG’s son? Is he a member of SBN somewhere?

Same reason why Hideki Matsui can’t be traded – they’d rather just go back to Japan, b/c to them being traded is an insult. I’d rather keep him and continue to pick up Japanese prospects with the same ease as Tazawa.

It was supposed to be a semi-pun, but someone went and edited it from the original:

Is DiceK OK?

rather than deleting it, like I do with most obnoxious, idiotic things that are posted on the site. That’s because this is an exceptional piece of stupidity. I’m going to print it out on nice paper, frame it, and put it in the Hall of Stupidity, which is conveniently located in a large sporting arena in the Bronx. There it will gloriously join Alex Rodriguez’s conscience, his respect for the sport of baseball, and his dignity, as well as Captain Intangibles’ Intangibles (both display cases, incidentally are empty).