Game 62: Offense is nice
by Randy Booth on Jun 14, 2009 2:12 AM EDT
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Red Sox vs Phillies coverage
Red Sox vs Phillies recap
Chicks dig offense.
The Red Sox took game two against the Phils on Saturday night with an 11-6 victory. The Sox scored five runs in the first inning before rain came and delayed the game. No matter though, as the Sox added on more for their fifth win in a row.
Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn't very good in the start. He lasted just four innings (91 pitches), allowed four runs, seven hits, a walk and struck out three. I guess Dice-K hasn't figured it all out yet. Hopefully he will soon, because we can't keep dragging his 2.10 WHIP along with us.
But the real story is the offense. Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury each had home runs. Mike Lowell went 3 for 4. Ellsbury finished 2 for 3 with two runs, two RBI and three walks. Yes, three walks. Julio Lugo -- yes, that Julio Lugo -- went 4 for 5. Finally some offense from the shortstop position.
The Sox look for back-to-back sweeps tomorrow with Josh Beckett on the hill. The Phills will send out J.A. Happ.
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Offense, hmmmm
How many hits has Varitek had in his last 25 times at bat. ?? about one. Thats an 04 ave.
by NG on Jun 14, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And how about Pedroia?
I’m so glad we judge the worth of our players by their last 20-some at bats. Otherwise me might act rationally instead of rashly.
by USG on Jun 14, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And if you go for the last 9 games
He has about a .333 OBP with six hits and six walks. Not exactly “sky is falling” territory. Small sample sizes are never your friend in making arguments about a player’s long-term value.
And, if you insist that we should make a trade for a better catcher, please explain how you’d go about doing that. I don’t see a lot of options on the market right now. (Seriously: take a look around the league. We are doing better at the catcher position than most other teams right now.)
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you look at last year's Varitek happenings,
You are probably seeing his true age-related performance potential NOW! I would be seriously worried about this position THIS YEAR.
by NG on Jun 14, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine. Then HOW do the Sox fix it?
Please explain to us which catcher the Sox should acquire, and who they have to give up to acquire him. Keep in mind also that any answer that includes “Joe Mauer” or “trade Buchholz and Bowden” is a pipe dream.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pay me what Epstein gets paid, and
I WILL solve this obvious weakness. It was obvious last year and will be a very very very large detriment from now on. The guy is too slow because he is too old, and that is/was totally predictable.
I know what is wrong by observation of the Sox playing, but I surely don’t have the time or desire to explore all the minor league possibilities or even high schoolers out there. The old adage that nobody is indispensable surely applies here, so the key is team will to do something. That will been lacking for some reason, but needs to change now.
by NG on Jun 14, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on.
Get a younger player with good potential and give him a try. Considfering all of last year and the now one for 25, how can you do any worse?
by NG on Jun 14, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty easily. Just take a look at the majority of the teams in MLB.
With your logic we would not have brought back Wake. How’s that working out?
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who?
And how? Stop dancing around solutions, NG, and find away to fix this “problem” that no one else is concerned with.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And aren’t we giving some younger players with potential a try? Isn’t that what goes on at the single A and AA level? As much as you dream and watch the movies, the kid behind the plate of your high school team is probably not ready for day to day ML action. Plus who are you going to cut from the 25 man roster to bring them up? Tek? What happens after your mythical superstar flops when we give him a try?
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I said below
Tek will stay and move to the backup spot. Kottaras would go back down to the minors, which means you’d need a catcher with a good bat and the ability to catch Wakefield. Good luck in that.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey couldn’t the kid from the Bad News Bears catch the Knuckler? The fat kid was a masher too!
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're dodging the issue
You’re talking about addressing a need this year. That means you can’t look at prospects, and I don’t know why on earth you’d possibly bring high schoolers into the scenario.
If you want to change catchers in mid-season, you’re going to want a major-league proven candidate. And you want to have someone who’s at least going to do better offensively than you think Varitek will. So let’s say an OPS of over .700. That leaves 33 catchers, according to ESPN. (I’m excluding catchers with less than 25 ABs.)
Then start subtracting the ones that are on teams with a good chance of making the playoffs, catchers that are reasonably cost-controlled (and therefore are difficult to land in a trade), and so on. You’ll find there aren’t a whole lot of viable options: very few teams in MLB are getting stellar production out of their catchers.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and don't forget
That whoever the Sox get this year will also have to be able to catch Wakefield.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which means good defensive skills with non-knucklers...
And some great stamina.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are plenty of solutions..
It just means eating a couple contracts, astronomical contracts… mainly Lugo’s, Papi’s and Daisuke’s contracts. That is alot of money.
The only one I would wait on because I feel he just needs to get his legs in shape is Daisuke. The other two, I would DFA them.
Tek’s batting average maybe mediocre, but he makes the young pitcher better by his game calling behind the plate.
Having just young players doesn’t do justice to the importance of pressure cooker situations, whether for a pitcher or a clutch batter. Young pitchers like young rattlesnakes have control problems with their venom, and they get worse in stressful situations.
by superferret on Jun 14, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Papi's coming around, Lugo appears to realize which team he's playing for now that his job is on the line...
Looks like we’re waiting. Also, cool reference.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intangibles
You can’t forget about what else Tek brings to this team that can’t be measured. His leadership and don’t forget about the way he handles pitchers, I’ve heard many times that no one calls a better game than he does. His offense isn’t the most horrible thing I’ve seen (see Big Papi, start of the season to say, June 1) and isn’t all that bad compared to other big name catchers. His OPS is third, granted it is from a high slugging pct not a high OBP. Catching isn’t a problem for us… this year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
by Rogue Nine on Jun 14, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to go ahead and agree with NG
Varitek has not looked good over the last several weeks, and given his abominable season last year, it’s right to worry. He’s got a .317 OBP for the season against RHP, which is much more suitable for a backup player or a platoon hitter than the STARTING CATCHER. If not for his unexpected power, Tek would be taking flak from a lot more of the people here who are leaping to his defense.
Frankly I’d much rather see a young player like Salty or Teagarden or Kottaras taking his lumps, than Varitek, because at least with the young guy there’s the hope for improvement in the future.
NG didn’t address this, but what are the options at C? Well, we could give Kottaras* more at-bats or bring up Dusty Brown. We could try to trade for a young catcher, as I suggested repeatedly and vociferously in the offseason. I don’t see Theo doing any of this, as the team is still in 1st place, but should other cogs in the offense also break down (Pedroia, Lowell, Bay) then a move might become desirable.
We do have spare parts to trade. In addition to players on the farm, we have Brad Penny and John Smoltz available, either of whom might net a good young catcher in trade (there might need to be other moving parts, maybe a pen arm like MDC or Saito).
*I know Kottaras is not batting that well, but he’s also not playing regularly. Given regular play, he might provide a much better performance at the plate.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Jun 14, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for a cogent analysis
It’s much better to see a post that tries to examine realistic possibilities rather than just proclaim “OH NOEZ!”
I have been pleasantly surprised with Tek’s performance this year, but I am by no means convinced of his ability to sustain it. (I didn’t like the team giving Tek a $3M player option for next year, for example.) However, I just don’t see how we don’t end up overpaying for a catcher. Trading Penny and a bullpen arm for a decent catcher seems like a wasted trade, especially because of the knuckleball issue. (I firmly believe that Kottaras’s performance in handling the knuckleball is one of the reasons behind Wakefield’s success this year.)
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is another non-cogent observation concerning Varitek.
He seems to just accept his failure as normal! When Youk or Padroia strikeout or hit into a DP or foul out, they seem to be upset and show it. That means they know they did bad and should have done better. Did you ever watch Varitek lately after he strike-out especially? He just skips back to the dugout like this was normal business for him. NOT GOOD! Go ahead and watch of this from now on.
by NG on Jun 14, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure I've noticed it.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s “accepting failure.” Look at Jason Bay. He’s intentionally suppressed his emotions at the plate because of childhood experiences playing for his father. And Drew is another guy who’s infamous for taking his lumps at the plate: if you see a photo of his face during a game, you’d be hard pressed to tell if he just struck out or hit a double.
Tek’s not boiling over, but it doesn’t mean he’s whistling Dixie on the way back to the dugout, either.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
I wouldn’t mind giving Kott some more starts as the season progresses, but we have other good options in the minors right now, a particular FA in two years that it appears we’re going to go after like he’s the WS trophy himself, and Theo isn’t going to over-spend to trade a great young catcher. Instead of suggesting stuff we know Theo won’t do (like lone1c said, no “Buch + Bowden” trades), I’d rather find ways to account for the relatively slight lack of production out of the catching position by protecting and strengthening the heart of the offense – the corner IF and OF spots.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something to think about
In just the last month, the Sox have played six series against division-leading teams (Toronto, Mets, Detroit, Texas, MFYs, Phillies). The Sox swept three of those series (Toronto, Detroit, MFYs), have the chance to do so against the Phillies. The combined record in these eighteen games will be either 13-5 or 14-4. That’s better than a .750 record against some of the toughest competition in baseball.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too bad the f'n Rays keep mucking stuff up.
But, yeah, we really should be challenging the Dodgers for the best record pretty soon here.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The biggest problem this team has right now is Dice-K
In 7 starts, he is averaging roughly 4.1 IP/GS. He can’t get anyone out, and has allowed 7 HR in 31 IP. While he was very lucky last year, he isn’t this bad. The WBC is probably to blame for a lot of his problems. But, he really isn’t a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ideally, he’s a #4. Going forward, I expect he’ll be more of a #5 because he has a lot of mileage on his arm. Another DL stint might be the best thing for him and the team.
I’m not too worried about Dusty’s slump. Up until recently, he was hitting well. He is being pitched differently this year. Pedroia is getting much fewer inside pitches. That’s where his power is. The opposition is pitching him away. He’ll have to make adjustments.
On a good note, Ellsbury has his OBP up to .354. I still don’t want him leading-off, though (.332 OBP as a lead-off hitter). Also, I’m less impressed with his HR last night than I am about his 3 BB. Lugo has a .361 OBP. I’m fine with him getting occasional playing time.
Aside from Dice-K, there’s little to really get upset about. Sure, Tek’s offense will continue to diminish as the season goes on. But there’s no better option available this year. The Sox might need to get another bat. But the team has the best record in the AL, and has an over .500 WP on the road (for those who think that’s important). As the team plays better, it’ll be easier for Theo to make a move without giving up the farm.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 14, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I’m going to take a look at Dice-K’s release points, velocity, and movement to see if there’s any red flags in there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Time for a DL stint and bring up Smoltz and/or Buch.
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably Smoltz gets first crack at the rotation.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. With Buch after the ASB if Lester & Becket need a rest.
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tito/Theo: Play The Best Players
That’s mean eat the money, if that’s the sad case……and it is with Dice-K, Oritz and Lugo. Play the guys who will help you win.
Dice-K is a disaster, at this point. Give Smoltz his rotation shot; if Smoltz can’t cut it, you give Dice-K another shot, or Buch……but STOP playing these guys are not helping this team.
by ccthemovieman on Jun 14, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eat the money with Dice-K? Really?
Dice-K is struggling, but he’s far from a lost cause. And there’s way too much time left on his deal to deep-six him now.
by lone1c on Jun 14, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus with Dice-K it is not the money in his contract it is the marketing dollars he brings in from Japan and to a lesser extent the effect his position has on recruiting talent from over there. I would bet thei ncreased revenue from over there more than pays his contract. A trip to the DL for “fatigue” or to work on mechanics sure, but there is no way the ownership deep-sixes Dice-K any time in the near future.
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, like it or not, with Dice-K it is a business decision.
by ganset on Jun 14, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh...
Winning is still the best marketing. If we find a way to help him fix his issues (DL trip), then we keep winning and preserve our awesome pull for the Japanese prospects.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, we wouldn't be just "eathing the money."
We’d be eating our connection with Japan.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the big problem is Papi..
I would the put the problems as
1. Papi
2. Shortstop
3. Daisuke
4. the schizophrenia of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester
5. Mike Lowe’s range
by superferret on Jun 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, let me set you mind at ease:
- Check his splits for this month vs. May and April.
- Lowrie. Also, Green and Lugo are playing much better to try to keep there jobs.
- See my FanPost.
- Less crazy psycho problems, more luck issues. They both have been phenomenal of late.
- Might be fixed with a little rest. Might.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 14, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Papi can’t be sitting at the Mendoza line. He can’t have an OPS that more in the line of David Eckstein than Papi’s regular OPS from seasons past. His job is to hit and bring in runs. He has to also has to give protection to others in the line up.. I still think the Sox should DFA him..
2. Lowrie is not bad at Shortstop and I think I rather keep Green than Lugo because Green has more flexibility like Lowrie to play 2B and 3B if necessary. The Sox should trade Lugo in the same way as they did with Renteria, eat some of his contract and try to package him more of an utility player in a trade.
3. Dice-K is still a great asset, maybe he will have a truly awful year this season, but as long as he can get his wide array of pitches together, he should come back, unlike Papi.. I think he needs to be in better shape, and get pitches down.
4. Today’s game against the Phillies was a perfect example. Also watching Lester’s game at Seattle, was painful..
5. Lowell is okay, but infield defense will mean the difference between a winning record and a playoff spot…
by superferret on Jun 15, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the sake of consistency:
- You’re still looking at Papi’s whole season, including time when he may have not been physically 100%, whether it be from his dry eyes or bad mechanics or whatever. He’s looking much better of late, and projects to be a much better hitter for the rest of the season, to the tune of a .384 wOBA, or an BA of .267 and an OPS of .887, according to ZiPS.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 15, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot the rest:
- See above
- Lowrie played some 3B last year and could easily play 2B if he’s so good at SS.
- See my FanPost for my breakdown of DiceK. /self pimping
- Lester’s luck has finally turned around, and Beckett was good until his luck flipped back. Yesterday, his one bad inning was comprised of a line drive single, a short fly ball single, a move’em over bunt, a sac groundout, another line drive single, an error, a down-the-line double, and a line out.
- Our infield defense will be excellent once Jed’s back and Lowell is either rested or replaced.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 15, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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