The Stats Dish: Beckett, Lester have been lights out

by Randy Booth on Jun 13, 2009 11:58 AM EDT in News Comment 37 comments

Boston Red Sox' Nick Green, left, hi-fives Jason Bay, right, who scored the winning run on a single by Jacoby Ellsbury in the 13th inning of an interleague baseball game Friday, June 12, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Red Sox won 5-2 in 13 innings. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

5 months ago: Boston Red Sox' Nick Green, left, hi-fives Jason Bay, right, who scored the winning run on a single by Jacoby Ellsbury in the 13th inning of an interleague baseball game Friday, June 12, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Red Sox won 5-2 in 13 innings. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Jon Lester in his last three starts: 22.0 IP, 34 SO, 1.23 ERA, .099 BAA
Josh Beckett since the start of May: 47.2 IP, 45 SO, 1.70 ERA, .181 BAA
Josh Beckett in his last four starts: 28.2 IP, 30 SO, 0.31 ERA, .115 BAA
Dustin Pedroia is batting .170 in 11 games since being moved to the leadoff spot in the lineup.
J.D. Drew is batting .333 with a .477 OBP in nine games since being moved to the 2-hole.
Kevin Youkilis is batting .262 with a .415 OBP and four home runs in 12 games since being moved to the 3-spot.
Jason Bay is batting .255 in 12 games since being moved to the 4-hole full-time.
David Ortiz is batting .313 in 32 at-bats in June.
Jacoby Ellsbury is batting .333 with a .412 OBP in eight games since being demoted from the leadoff spot.
Hideki Okajima has a 0.47 ERA with a .141 BAA in 18 games since April 28. He has struck out 21 in 19.2 innings in that span.

ANALYSIS: Maybe the front of the order lineup isn't working too well. Pedroia is struggling a lot while Drew is thriving. Maybe the lineup should change the way people at OTM thought it should have been at the beginning of the season: Drew at leadoff, Pedroia in the 2-hole. The 2-hole is a perfect place for Pedroia while I thoroughly believe Drew can hit ANYWHERE in a lineup. ... Ellsbury's stats are encouraging. The .412 OBP is a nice thing to see since his drop in the lineup. ... Okajima has been nearly untouchable, as with Beckett and Lester.

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Just a side note

some Red Sox fans are making “Free Clay Buchholz” T-shirts…LOL

I found that to be hilarious. Oh to have TOO much pitching, what a problem….

by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No kidding

But I’ll bet it means Penny gets traded in the next month or so for another bat.

by RSNexile on Jun 13, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two more days till the 15th, when he can be traded w/o permission. :)

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont think Penny is going to be traded

Dice-K has said he feels tired and unless he does very well today I expect him to go on the DL again. That opens a spot for Smoltz and Buchholz will get the “fill in” role when they decide to sit Beckett and Lester for the in season breaks.

I might be wrong, teams are in dire need of pitching and maybe someone is willing to give up something valuable for Penny. Also Beckett and Penny are friends and why screw with chemistry if you don’t need to.

But if someone offers something too good to turn down. Nice knowing you Brad, best of luck…

by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just another note about Penny

The one thing I like about him is his desire and passion to play for the Red Sox. The guy is really working hard and trying his best out there and cares. Sure he might not be an ace, but I have to say he definately WANTS to be a Red Sox and do well in the rotation. I hate giving up guys like that. Intangibles are intangibles, but I just like the attitude.

by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me too.

But we have some other issues that his value could help solve – maybe a corner IF type guy that can get Lowell, Youk and Papi some needed rest.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we have this

mark kotsay. Everyone talks about how much pitching we have, but we actually have too many bats as well. With Papi heating up and Lowrie coming back, we have nowhere to put new bat. And our bench is quite deep as well, with two guys who can play RF/CF, a decent hitting backup catcher, backup 1B, backup SS/2B (lugo) and more decent guys to call up and man the bench like bailey or carter. so where do we put a new bat, and is it worth giving up a potentially good starter in Penny? maybe for that jason donald kid.

by revived0103 on Jun 13, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our bench is:

Rocco
Kotsay
Green
Lugo
Kottaras

None of those are a guy like Sean Casey who you could expect to come in and hit the ball hard.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they are lacking in power yes

but we still do have a deep bench. is it really worth penny for another bench guy?

by revived0103 on Jun 13, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much is Penny worth to us?

Really I’d say he’s a negative given the replacements of Smoltz and Buchholz.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its never a negative

to have a good pitcher. after his performance against the yankees he may be coming around. his start against texas was also going very well until that last inning. I am all for trading him in order to get smoltz in there, but in terms of a bat i just don’t know what we should go for. PAPI IS HEATING UP, he is going to hit 30 HR’s. I believe this. I wouldn’t mind getting another middle IF to replace Lugo. I hope Lugo can be traded but if not we could just release him

by revived0103 on Jun 13, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you think he's gonna hit 30, you're a little crazy.

But either way, it is a negative to have a meh pitcher—which is what Penny is, he’s not really good—if his only purpose is as a blocker to other talent, especially when there’s still gonna be 2+ guys in reserve for injury purposes. We can’t send him to the minors and hold him in reserve, we can’t pitch him when we can pitch Smoltz in his stead. We have to get our value for him.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This.

Although Papi has been turning it around, and could have Delgado-type numbers for the rest of the season, putting him at around 30 dingers.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He can be a negative.

Right now, the “replacement level” starting pitcher for the Red Sox is John Smoltz or Clay Buccholz. If Penny is worse than either of them, he is of negative value to the team.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jun 14, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figure

Lugo will be released.

by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did Casey hit the ball hard?

I ws under the impression that he was of the “soft liner” mode.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jun 14, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, Donald's having surgery to repair a torn meniscus (Lugo's injury), should be out till the deadline.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And we can't trade for an injured player.

God damn.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I see happening.

I don’t want to get rid of the guy, by I think that we will get some damn good offers for him, esp. after his last start.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree on both

by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure about "damn good"

But we should get some value. If we have to send Daisuke to the DL again, Buchholz is a better replacement option anyways. We have depth—let’s use it knowing that even WITH that situation Bowden or Masterson can fill in for an injury.

Penny is extraneous, if a guy I’d like to keep around just for his attitude and how much he seems to like the team.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everything being relative.

I’m not expecting the Mets to offer us FMart or anything.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking more Pujols, but whatever.

Wait, we’ve already made this joke.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

I’m only expecting prospects or a bench player/AAAA type guy.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Basically for me, Jason Donald would be a great haul.

I’m just not sure I’m expecting him.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, he's now injured.

Don’t know if that means that he’d be a easier acquisition, or if the Phillies will just hold on to him for now.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just another proposed line-up

Drew
MVP
Bay
Youks
Papi
Lowell
GREEN (not Lugo)
Tek
Ells

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Jun 13, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I'd be interested in seeing how Youk and Bay affect each other when they're switched.

Ells doesn’t need the further drop, though – Lowell might.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been calling for this for a while. Bay Loves the fastballs.

Put Youk behind him and there’s a lot better chance he’ll get some. Plus, he can actually steal a base or two.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Youk's eye is good enough that he'll know when to lay off the pitches outside the zone.

And Youk got a steal last night. :)

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pedroia is in a hell of a slump.

But he has shown in the past that he does tend to get in slumps and bust out of them pretty well. Its hard to believe that the slump is being caused by a move to the top of the order. I like the way the lineup is right now, for the record.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jun 13, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But you wouldn't be kicking and screaming if DP and JD swapped for a few games, right?

Although, I could see a huge rise is GIDP for DP if the switch happened and he kept up his slump – he was grounding out like crazy last night.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really do not care either way.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Jun 14, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People are going to have highs and lows no matter where they hit

For instance Pedroia’s slump leading off and Drew and Papi’s surges will happen no matter what. As long as they keep winning with this order, I’d leave it alone, at least untill the AS break.

"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby

by nepats108 on Jun 13, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is true to some extent.

But there are changes in a pitcher’s approach based on where you’re hitting, who’s behind you, etc.

I don’t think Pedroia suffers from the leadoff spot, though, so changes there would likely be pointless.

by USG on Jun 13, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The changes would be more about taking advantage of surges and minmizing slumps.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 13, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Next time...

Maybe the players names should be blank… like ________ has a .31 ERA over his last 4 starts. This way maybe we can avoid any punishment the baseball gods think to dole upon us for lauding our team’s gaudy numbers (see Beckett 6/14/09).

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Jun 14, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs