LUGO AND OTHER THINGS
by 75bandwagon on May 4, 2009 2:26 AM EDT
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PrintSimply said, Jugo needs to go. He lost it for us in Cleveland and he lost it for us today. I was one of the few who thought we never should have gotten rid of Alex Cora. Jed Lowerie is not the answer. He will be the classic 1970s style shortstp; good glove, but bats .220. Nick Green wouldn't be so bad if he would stop trying to take home run cuts when he's at the plate. He does well when he is simply trying to make good contact with the ball.
Ortiz is really turning into a joke. The absence of either Manny or steroids might be the answer here.
I actually liked what I saw from Penny today. He had his fastball in the mid 90s. That was awesome. And he didn't give up the long ball.
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"He will be the classic 1970s style shortstp; good glove, but bats .220"
…All evidence to the contrary notwithtanding?
Lowrie has been battling wrist injures for the last year or so, but I don’t see any reason why we should assume his long years of batting for average and getting on base at a fair clip meant nothing.
And sorry for the double post, but...
How much more do you expect out of green than a .304/.371/.464 line?
We should have kept Alex Cora?
Lets see: he is 34 years old this year. He has a career OPS of .662 (Julio Lugo has been better than this in all but one year of his career), and HES ALEX CORA! And you prefer him to a 24 year old who put up a .739 OPS as a rookie with a broken wrist? There is reason that you were “one of the few” to support retaining him; he is not better than Lugo, Lowrie or Nick Green. Now I understand people’s hatred of Lugo. I understand people wishing we had a different SS, but I have no clue how someone could wish we were starting Alex Cora right now. Please defend you opinion, I must be missing something.
The Guy's lost let him be
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on May 4, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Why wish--- do!
One definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and hoping for a different end result. If management keeps playing Lugo, they are either sabotaging the team on purpose or are insane!
I thought you were going to call for us to get rid of Lugo.
I was going to have to remind you we lack certain powers.
I smell troll
C’mon guys. His name is “75bandwagon.” I’d say the “bandwagon” part is a pretty big clue.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Let me see,
this guy is concerned that the Sox are not performing well, so he suggests legitimate reasons why they are having trouble. Because of that, he is a troll??? How stupid. I would suggest that the real troll, or at least blinded fan for the team’s success, is the fan who is blind to reality and wishes to keep going down the same dead end road.
by NG on May 4, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I put that as my screen name on here because I grew up in Virginia and jumped on the ‘’band wagon’’ when I was 8 years old (in ‘75) and never got off. You can ’’smell troll’’ all you want. The bottom line is we need a shortstop and nothing we currently have is answering the mail. It might be a long season, but the games in April and May count. And the reason we didn’t have home field in the playoffs is because we lost 7 out of 8 to the Rays in Tampa. Right now including the Fenway series we’re already 2 and 6. And as far as Cora is concerned if he had had more playing time (which I feel he should have had), you would have seen a lot more from him. I wish everyone would stop making excuses for Lowrie. He’s still living off his winning RBI in the ALDS last year (a dribbling single that barely got out of the infield). We haven’t had a shortstop with a glove or a bat since Nomar and that’s the sad truth of the matter. If not Cora then we should have resigned Cabrera when we had the chance. This will be an achilles heel for us all year.
I apologize for calling you a troll.
Regarding your SS concerns, Cora wasn’t a viable SS and hasn’t been for some time. He is a barely adequate 2B. He has absolutely no range—and his bat is awful. Nick Green has had a nice start. But his track record suggests that he is at best a 3rd SS.
I don’t know how you can say Lowrie “will be the classic 1970s style shortstop; good glove, but bats .220.” Lowrie had a career minor league OPS of .827. In 411 PA for Pawtucket, he hit .282 AVG/.358 OBP/.466 SLG. Where does the .220 AVG come from? Lowrie had a bad wrist last year and hit as well or better than Orlando Cabrera, a truly bad hitter. An injured Lowrie had an OPS of .739. Since leaving Boston, OC has had only one better year (2007, when he had an OPS of .743).
OC is a fine defensive SS. But he is not a great hitter. Here are his career numbers: .273 AVG/.322 OBP/.397 SLG (.719 OPS). Those career numbers are very close those of everyone’s favorite scapegoat (Julio Lugo): .270 AVG/.335 OBP/.390 SLG (.725 OPS). In fact, Lugo is a slightly better career hitter.
It’s May 4th. There is no reason to panic yet (although there are some here—NG, NG, NG—who always panic, even when the Sox win the WS). The Sox have an in-house solution to their SS problem: Jed Lowrie. Why trade assets than can be used elsewhere to get another SS?
Finally, while Lugo is not my ideal choice (I didn’t like the signing), too many people here see him as the author of all the team’s problems. That’s silly. He didn’t cost the Sox a game in Cleveland or three games in Tampa. Some want to point to the fact that the Sox have had a losing record since Lugo returned as proof that the Sox “can’t win with him” at SS. But they already have won with him—in 2007.
In my opinion, the Sox’ problems right now are as follows: Ellsbury, Ortiz (having those two at the top of the order hurts), the #1, #2, and #3 starters (Wake and Penny are giving the Sox what they need from the bottom of the rotation. Yes, I said Penny: 3 QS in 5 GS), and Paps’ inability to throw less than 25 pitches in an inning (it limits Tito’s ability to use him in multiple games). SS really isn’t Boston’s biggest problem right now.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 4, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Drugs, it was good of you to take back that troll line.
I complement you on that, as my views are quite consistent with the authors point of view. That does not make me a troll, as I just want a championship Sox team EVERY YEAR. Is that asking too much?
Anyway back to my favorite subject of “momentum”. I don’t hate anyone, and am not bias due to anything but my perception of how a player helps or hurts the Sox team. Watching Varitek last year hit into dp after dp in tight games and striking out over and over quenched many rallies. That is what turned me against him. This year, his weak arm as well as the weak hitting (it is beginning to show now IMO) makes me still very weary of his prospects for helping the team.
As for Lugo, his limited arm, limited field coverage, limited fielding skills, and his awful crucial at bats (?worse than Varitek) coupled with one of the longest hitting slumps I have ever seen (a recurrent process I believe) makes him momentum sucker of the highest order. It is an intangible to try and say he did not cost us this or that games, but I believe there are subjective as well as objective negatives at work with him which now all trend to bad results. He just kills rallies (momentum) like almost no one else on both offense and defense! Again, I did not wake up one day with a innate dislike for Lugo. He has totally and completely earned my distain for his baseball non-prowess.
by NG on May 4, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I just want a championship Sox team EVERY YEAR. Is that asking too much?
Yes, that is asking too much. The Red Sox are the only team to win more than one championship in the last 10 years. Winning in baseball is hard. It takes good heath, talent and luck. An excellent team only wins 60% of the time. A poor one more than 40%. This is not football. The difference between winning and losing is a fine line (this is why your comments about the difference between winning and losing in the last few days is not correct). There are no perfect seasons. I understand your frustrations but remember:
a)Much of what you are saying is obvious. We all understand that Lugo, Tek, etc are highly problematic.
b)Many of your suggestions make no sense. Because a guy like Green is hitting now does not mean it will continue at a pace that makes him a better option than the hated Lugo, in fact we can essentially be sure that it will not. Because Tek is continually run on does not mean that the same would not be true for Kotteras.
c)You only post when the team loses. That might be a way for you to feel smart about what you say ( eg “I told you so”) but it really is not. Much of what you suggest would, in both the long term and short term, do harm to the team. The rest of the things that you say are rhetorical and not helpful.
Remember that no team in recent times has been more successful than this one. If you hate the moves that Theo and company are making, try and find a team with a better strategy. Recall also that the goal, as you said, is to “win every year.” With that goal, one should strategically plan and understand that you cannot be great at every position. You try to do the best you can with your resources, use rational argument to gauge success and likelihood of success, and construct a versatile and deep team that can absorb the unpredictable bumps in the road of a long season.
But you do not take into account an individual players
history when you bring up that Green example. Lugo has a history with the Sox which I am sure depresses his teammates. New players take a while to develop that kind of history, and they may actually work out instead. Lugo especially is an established team poison, which should /could be shed just by trying anyone else!
Other than that, your post is somewhat logical, but when it comes to being a fair-weather Sox baseball fan, who ever said that losing 40-60% of the games yearly, was a good thing?
by NG on May 4, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I do take it into account
that is the whole reason why I know that Green sucks too.
But for as long as he's hitting this way
What sense does it make to put in someone showing their mediocrity over someone who isn’t? It’s not like there’s any great hope Lugo will suddenly snap out of it.
That's silly-
that is not the way professional sports work. A player who you deem better based on past performance, age and heath has to play because you don’t know when they will “start hitting, etc.” For example, you have to give Ortiz more than a month to work things out, if he will, because the payoff would be great, and the risk of a knee-jerk benching/cutting is high. Of course there are limits, but you have to be patient-we are 1.5 games back in May, guys! As for Lugo, it does not really matter. As I said, he is gone soon, and no, he is not the cause of the teams losing in Tampa, any more than Beckett, Masterson, or anyone else are.
+1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Totally agree.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 4, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Ortiz has had a year and a month.
And I don’t care how high his BABIP is right now. Until he starts regressing to the mean, ride the high. It’s not like you’re giving up anything (Lugo) to play the lottery. I’m not saying that he’s a good long term solution, just that until his bat cools down, there’s no point in taking him out for someone who is the worst case scenario.
I'm sorry but
you just don’t understand what you are talking about. There is no, “ride the high”-his high BAPIP is not an indicator that he is hot, it is an indicator that he is LUCKY. What don’t you understand here? Balls are dropping in that he has no control over. If he plays for the next week, the odds say he reverts to his career 669 OPS self. IT IS NOT THAT HE IS HOT-HE IS LUCKY. As for Ortiz, take April away last year, and he had a 900 OPS. That is bad?
A year and a month?
Last year Ortiz had an .877 OPS (123 OPS+). While that’s not up Papi’s normal standards, it’s pretty damn good. Ortiz was on pace for 34 HR (assuming he played 154 games).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 4, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
For Ortiz, the point is a trend of decline, but I'm also just suggesting moving him down in the lineup because I understand the high reward.
And I definitely do understand what BABIP is, but there’s something to be said for the fact that regression to the mean is not God’s law. If he’s hitting a few more ground balls than usual, a few more line drives, (both of which are true, even if there is a small sample size and the difference is small) and if his fly balls have more loft to them (especially in Fenway), then those can all drive up BABIP. I think it’s certainly possible that he regresses to the mean, but again, it’s not like we’re losing anything by putting him in over Lugo, and given his relatively few major league games, his slightly higher LD% and GB%, and the havoc that Fenway can play on the average hitter’s BABIP (does anyone know where he tends to hit the ball?), I tend to think his upside is quite a bit greater than Lugo’s.
Oh...
I don’t know. I’ve never used a resource for hitting tendencies. You might want to ask someone at FanGraphs or BeyondtheBoxscore.
BtB got me an answer(s):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=greenni01&year=Career&t=b#hitlo [numbers, hard to visualize]
OR
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=407797&statType=1 [Charts, but only individual parks]
You are looking at players like numbers.
They ARE people – and the job of the manager is to be able to judge who and what gives the team the best chance to win. Benching Ortiz might be the shock he needs to fix his swing, but the decision to do so is up to Tito, and that’s what he’s payed to do.
BTW
Green has 6 (!) errors in 17 games. How is he not showing mediocrity? As for his hitting, he has ben LUCKY. His BAPIP is 381! His career BAPIP is 60 points below that. That is how a person who knows anything knows, for sure, that if you keep playing, he will start to suck. Otherwise, it is like playing the lottery. Well, sometimes you win, but you really shouldn’t.
Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 4, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Also BTW
Adjusting Green’s BABIP to match his career average produces a line of .256/.312/.390
Horrible? Yes. But better than Lugo in ’07 and ’08.
"try and find a team with a better strategy"
Making a statement like this shows me that you do not get it. You always want a win and try to design the team ot win every game, at least in my world. If I spend good money seeing my favorite team in person or on pay TV, I want a win. If they are losing too much, I won’lt go and I won’t watch!
by NG on May 4, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What don't I get?
My statement is that the Sox have been the most successful Baseball organization in the last 10 years, so it is not like we have morons running the team. I hardly think if the front office was to read your posts, they would have some sort of epiphany and say, “oh, I thouhgt Lugo was good, now I see that he really is a momentum-sucker and thus we should….” As I said above, you only post either obvious or stupid ( or obviously stupid) things when the team loses.
I dunno, I'd say Terry Francona fits the "moron" bill most of the time.
I hate the idea that because you’re part of a winning team, you can’t be bad. The team was so good in ’03 that it took perhaps the worst managerial decision EVER to keep them out of the WS. All Francona had to do was be better than the worst. Well, congratulations Tito, you waited till game 2 of the ’08 ALCS to show you had that in you.
Really?
Who is a better manager than Tito? I don’t agree with everything he does (I wouldn’t expect to), but he is easily the best Red Sox manager in my lifetime. And I think he is one of the game’s best.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 4, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I couldn't tell you
Because I don’t watch other teams games often enough to judge the minutiae that a manager’s job is all about. But I can say that he’s responsible for all that hit-and-run bullshit last season. I can say he’s why starters and relievers are often given far too much leeway based on the idea “Well, you never know, maybe he’ll get the next guy” while a guy who’s just come out of the pen and retired 4 on 15 pitches will get pulled when the next guy bloops a single off the first pitch. I can say he’s the reason Ellsbury is still batting 1st, Ortiz is still batting 3rd, and holy hell why is Lugo still seeing regular playing time? Hell, in Spring Training, he said Lugo would be starting over Lowrie, but then he got injured.
Simply put, he makes tons of bad decisions. He overmanages and undermanages at the same time. What I want out of a manager is to make sure the right people are in the game at the right time, and he simply doesn’t get that done very often.
All managers make bad decisions
Baseball is a complicated and chance-infused game. He has gotten me mad more times than I can tell you. However, I also pay attention to what other managers do. I can tell you that they do stupid things even more than Francona does. Look at Maddon-he brought Shouse in to face Youkilis as a L or R matchup, when Youkilis destroys Shouse historically. Result-our only win in the series. He refused to pintch hit for his pitcher in the WS late in a game to keep a pitcher in for a bad hitter-pitcher matcheup. He totally mismanaged his pen in the ALCS, blowing game 5, which almost allowed us to take a series we had no right to be even close in. Should I go on?
Fair enough
If Francona’s bad choices are actually few in comparison to other managers’, then I take back what I said on Francona—though that makes me wonder how the hell they get their jobs. Making the right decision shouldn’t be nearly as hard as they make it out to be.
We can all look back on decisions and say they are "bad"
but that is a results based approach. We have to look at the process and judge that. I think the Sox are some of the best in the league at putting together a cohesive process from front office to the field. They decide who they like as players and let them play. They give their guys a long leash. Theo thinks that guys’ true talent will show through and it usually does. Does this lead to some bad results? Of course. But it also leads to many more very good results.
by BTLove on May 4, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, I very much look at the process.
The fact that the result gets thrown in my face every once in a while is proof enough of that.
I feel you're trying to be a tad too logical here
And overlooking common sense.
Lugo obviously is problematic, and the chances that Nick Green continues his hitting are slim, but you’re almost guaranteed to get minimal production and tons of errors out of Lugo, while with green you have an opportunity to slot in someone who certainly has a much better shot at producing. The time to stop slotting him in is either when Lowrie comes back—because in him you have a legitimate prospect who COULD be a solid defensive shortstop while producing Nick Green numbers consistently. The time to stop is NOT when you’ll be replacing him with a proven complete disaster in Lugo.
And for Tek, it’s not hard to tell that he’s just not got the arm and reaction time to throw out many runners anymore, but I’d say it’s jumping the gun to replace him with Kottaras, who again has no shot to be any presence in the lineup while Varitek, even if he can just continue with the numbers he has now would be an OK 7-8-9 guy.
Finally, you say teams should be doing the best with what they have, but the whole point is that the Sox are not. They COULD move Ellsbury out of the 1 spot and move Pedroia’s .400 OBP up. They COULD replace Ortiz with someone else or at least move him out of a vital lineup spot. But the Sox are pointlessly set in their ways, and it’s frustrating because the ability to make these changes is why you do build up depth.
They have the ability to be better, they choose not to use it. I, personally, blame Francona, not Theo.
I agree with a lot.
For me, the difference between Lugo and Green is small enough that it doesn’t really matter who we play. I think the issue Buzzy and others are having is with people who think Green is some sort of solution at SS. He is not. He is a 30 year old journey-man utility infielder. I doubt there are any examples in the history of baseball where a guy brokeout at that stage of his career.
In terms of the Tito criticisms. I agree he should not be leading off with Ells (most of us thought this before the season started). I think its time Ortiz gets moved down in the lineup. But remember, Tito is intensely loyal to his players. Sometimes this bites him in the ass, but its also a strength. Players love him and they love playing for him. That has value. Also, more than once, he has stuck with guys through their struggles and was rewarded for it. Whether it be Pedroia after his horrid start to his career, or using DLowe during the 2004 playoffs after a terrible year. He is a players’ manager. Sometimes a guy’s weakness can also be a strength.
I agree completely.
I also think, somwhere in this thread, I said the same thing re: Green/Lugo. Just does not matter really.
I agree that Nick Green isn't a solution.
My point has always been that he’s a good stopgap till Lowrie—who can be a solution—gets back.
+1
Plus, Lugo just seems to f’ things up at more critical times. Green’s errors never seem to happen at high leverage moments.
I love the way everyone is talking about Lowrie’s OBP when he was in Pawtucket….THAT WAS PAWTUCKET!!!!….He’s in ‘’the show’’ now. Thanks for the apology, Drugs. If you’re ever in San Clemente, Ca. look me up. What can I say? I’m as critical as they come and right now the team is not playing like we thought they would. Even John Farrell said that the starters need to start stepping up because before long the pen is going to get taxed. If your starter can’t give you at least 6 2/3 then you are going to be in trouble. I’d like to see Michael Bowden get his shot. He was big time impressive against the Yanks last week.
So what if the OBP is in Pawtucket? Numbers are numbers.
Obviously they don’t translate for everyone, but the only thing against Lowrie right now is a year with an injured/broken wrist. When he was healthy with Boston, he was putting up good numbers then, too.
Calling him a .220 bust based on, well, nothing is pretty ridiculous.
I can't back off this Cora thing.
If you hate Lugo, there are many possible suggestions that I find acceptable. Trade for a new guy, playing Nick Green or just getting rid of him w/o any alternative (hello NG). I may disagree with these suggestions, but they have some logic behind them. But Alex Cora? as the solution at SS? C’mon. He needs more playing time? He has recieved more than 3000 PA’s over his career and has put together a line of .246/.314/.349. What indicates to you that he is anything more than exactly that player? And OC has not been much better than Lugo with the bat since he left. I know all Sox fans love Cora and OC, but look at the facts. Please.
Lets be real....
Lugo does kill momentum and confidence. Both at the plate and in the field. Lowrie will be fine. Jacoby cannot be more patient because teams go right at him without fear. When he starts hitting consistently, then he will be “pitched” to. I say put drew at the top for now and put Jacoby 7th or 9th. A trade has to come for a catcher, if teams continue to steal on Tek, He will HAVE to go to a back up position. Also, How long do you ride out Ortiz? He is now a mental mess. We are still winning without him and if he finally does click, then we we are on a good ride! I do find it ironic that he wanted a 30 HR guy and Youk and Bay are both there, Maybe he meant get one to replace him!? Beckett is not Beckett either, And Paps is an adventure, I cannot remember the last time he pitched without a man standing on second. He seems to pull it out, but it would be nice to see a 1-2-3 inning once in a while. Thank god for Wake! All I know is that everyone (me included) has wanted to get rid of players and change things here and there, but without us running the team, they have done pretty well the past few years. Maybe Theo knows what he is doing and maybe he is planning some moves, he is the pro not us! With that being said, I can’t watch the games because some of these players and managerial decisions make me sick! I can’t enjoy it anymore, another Lugo Gaffe or Varitek weak grounder and I might go insane. At least playoff hockey is on for a while…
the difference between a yankee stadium hot dog and a Fenway frank is that they dont sell yankee dogs in October anymore.
Thank god for Wake!
NG-do you realize you just +11ed a post with this line in it?
I predicted Wake would
continue to look weak like at the end of last year. At his age, he still might and soon. However unlike Lugo (especially) and Varitek who are looking and and acting poorly NOW, Wake is now performing ! That speaks for itself as long as he can continue to act such within reason.
by NG on May 4, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This team needs a major trade for a hitter. We are going to have to part with some propects to get it done. Prospects are over-valued. How many here would not go back and pull the trigger for Santana?
Ah, also Crisp/Ellsbury
And while Ellsbury has been meh-at-best so far, Crisp = Ramon Ramirez, so. . .
I think I'm going to write a song about Lugo.
Any suggestions? Any tunes to give me a head start?
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
Suggestions
- “You Give Love a Bad Name” (either Atreyu or Bon Jovi)
- “Bring Me to Life” by Evanescence
- “”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQHrspjw4aA" target="new">Sweet Dreams" by Eurhythmics
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
The last one is
“Sweet Dreams” by Eurythmics
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
We got to get (you-my word) out of this place.
By the Animals, which is quite appropriate considering the subject..
by NG on May 4, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Lugo
Lugo has gotta go. NOW! Green seems to be an upgrade at this point.
Thoughts?
Hey, I'm Matt Holliday, I can hit the ball a ton above 5280 ft. Otherwise, I can't hit shit.
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