Red Sox Fielding: Indefensible
by 0157H7 on May 28, 2009 8:33 PM EDT
41 comments
Ask a Sox fan "What's the biggest problem for the 2009 Red Sox?" and you'll get a variety of answers: Ortiz's swing, Lester and Beckett's struggles, anything that Julio Lugo does. But arguably the worst performance has been teamwide: the Sox, with a few exceptions, are playing atrocious defense.
How bad is the D? One quick and dirty measure of team defense is "Defensive Efficiency," which you can find on Baseball Prospectus. Defensive Efficiency tracks the rate at which balls put into play are turned into outs; a good defense will record a higher number. By this measure, the Red Sox have a .676 rating, 'good' for 11th in the league and 24th in all of baseball. [Aside: the league leader in Def Eff is the Detroit Tigers, at .706, followed by the Blue Jays at .705.] This is quite a downgrade from last season, when the Sox finished 4th in the league in Def Eff.
Another metric which you can use to evaluate defense is UZR, which is now available free on Fangraphs. Fielders and teams can have either positive or negative UZRs. Unfortunately, by this measure, the Sox again rate as one of the worst teams in the game: -11 runs for the season thus far, which makes them the third worst AL team in UZR. Meanwhile, the Rays are leading the game, at 22.9, followed in the AL by the Rangers (16.8) and Tigers (14.4).
Looking at the UZR numbers for individual Red Sox players, a distressing picture emerges. Of the starters, only Pedroia (2.4), Youk (1.6) and Drew (1.9) have decent ratings. Ellsbury, for all his amazing catches, is surprisingly mediocre (-0.2). Lowell is a huge disappointment at third base (-2.4). Lugo's defense has been abyssmal (-4.2), and Green hasn't been much better (-1.8). But the real butcher has been Jason Bay, who is -6.4 in left field, even as he is saving the team with his bat.
This sieve-like defense is losing games for us both quiety and flagrantly. The latter is exemplified by Nick Green's atrocious two-base error in Seattle (5/17), or Lugo failing to execute a double play in Dice-K's game against Santana and the Mets. But games are lost quietly too, in the many times when a ball gets by Lowell, or Bay's tentative play allows a ball to fall for a hit.
I believe poor defensive performances from our fielders is the number #1 problem with this team. Beckett and Lester would have markedly improved numbers if they had had a better defense behind them.
What are the options to address this? At SS, Green could replace Lugo, if you believe the UZR difference is significant enough; also, Lowrie will come back soon, so he might be the ideal solution to fill the yawning abyss at that position. Barring injury, Lowell is the third baseman, so aside from hoping he'll play better, little can be done. Bay really ought to get some days off from fielding, in part because he is so bad, and in part because he deserves some time off (he played 162 games last season, plus the playoffs, and hasn't missed a game all season).
There are undoubtedly some good fielders out there, and Theo should consider a Nomar-like trade if the defensive woes linger. As the season is still young (47 games in), it's possible that the individual and team numbers will improve. The question, as with Ortiz, is how long can we wait?
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Lowrie
was taking grounders before today’s game according to Blyleven, which is a good sign.
Lowell is a problem, there is just nothing we can do about that. I wish that someone would talk to Bay about playing a bit more shallow at Fenway, but probably wouldn’t matter. I guess the best we could hope for is that Lowrie returns strong, cements the defense (it is the most important position after all) and things follow from that. I mean, personelle-wise, it is the same defense.
by Buzzy on May 28, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I love option 4 in the poll! I recall the entire little argument…
by Buzzy on May 28, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What conversation?
Was I involved?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 28, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
I don’t think so. Just because you are a layer doesn’t mean that you are involved in every argument here! Seriously, I think it was a discussion between EColi and Sky Kalkman. Maybe I am misremembering…
by Buzzy on May 29, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember debating one of those new fangled stats,
wasn’t sure if it was that one.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 29, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR is the best publicly available defensive metric
But it does not know how to deal with LF in Fenway. Manny was bad, but never as bad as the numbers suggested. Bay is probably a -5 fielder for a season in reality, not a -15 fielder, which is what he’s on pace to be.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on May 28, 2009 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In fairness
I think all of the metrics may have issues with Fenway’s LF, not just UZR. Although, it’s not like Manny and Bay are great fielders elsewhere either…
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on May 28, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowell is just plain bad so far...
But I think Bay has looked better of late. He’s been running down a lot of balls I didn’t expect him to get to. And as has been said, there’s a ridiculous adjustment that needs to be made for the monster. Lowrie will be back, and that just leaves the hot corner.
I asked a while back about the validity of switching Lowell and Youk, thus leaving Youk to play the harder CI position, but got shot down pretty quickly. Figure I’d bring it back up now that people are paying some more attention.
by USG on May 28, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It probably doesn't make sense now, either
In the middle of the season is NOT the time to have to learn to field a new position. Lowell’s been a 3B so long that the adjustment to 1B would probably lead to just as many errors from inexperience as leaving things the way they are.
If Lowell had had the surgery in June or July of last year, and had been able to recover in time for all of spring training, then it might have been possible to get him started then. But now? Not so attractive an idea.
by lone1c on May 28, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much learning is involved going from one CI position to the other though?
by USG on May 28, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not the learning
It’s the unlearning. You have to think like a first baseman, not a third baseman playing 1B, and I suspect that it takes some time. Given that Mike Lowell has only played 3B in his major-league career, I’d say his instincts are purely those of a 3B. It might not take a lot of time to start thinking like a 1B, but still probably enough that a switch right now wouldn’t help much.
Like I said, though, it could be helpful for next year.
by lone1c on May 28, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wish Lowell would make it easy on everyone and just accept a DH role.
Oh, but then Bailey would be at first. Ick.
by USG on May 29, 2009 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, this.
Rec’d.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on May 30, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though I'm not against the overall idea.
And to the idea of Lowell to DH? Well, I would think he’d do it more often if the position were available…
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on May 30, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No need to worry.
It is not that bad. Bay is awful. Was awful before the surgery and even worst after it. You can check it out. He wasn’t any better in Pittsburgh.
But the rest of the team should be okay. Youk is pretty good and Pedroia also. I still don’t know what to expect from Lowrie and hopefully Lowell is gonna get better as his hip gets better. Drew was pretty good in right last year. There is no reason to think he has declined too much. Ellsbury is just average.
So we can expect the entire right side to perform better. And hope that Lowell improves to his career level and Lowrie comes back like last year.
by gemf89 on May 28, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury = just average?
I disagree strongly.
As far as Bay, I think he plays the Monster extremely well, but as someone else said, he needs to be a bit more shallow. The wall will always be there and it will always deflect the ball down.
Lowell has looked good to me so far. His GIDP amount is what worries me about him. I have seen him make some very very good plays at 3B though. He may not be the dirtdog he used to be in which he would dive at every ball, but he is still pretty good.
I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.
by Charged on May 28, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Monster can mess with an LF's head
The trick is figuring out how to balance the effects of how the Monster changes how balls are fielded at Fenway while remembering that it doesn’t happen anywhere else.
by lone1c on May 29, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I trust the numbers.
Yeah, Ellsbury is fast and he makes some awesome plays. And that makes us believe he is awesome. But that’s not necessarily true. UZR thinks he is a little above average, not Carlos Gomez.
Just like J.D., he is not flashy, he won’t dive and when he does he looks terrible. But he gets to more balls than your average RFer.
by gemf89 on May 28, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does UZR adjust for crazy dimensions
Center field at Fenway is one of the deepest of any AL park—-only Comerica Park is its equal (420’); no other park is more than 410’. In the NL, only the Marlins and Astros have deeper CF’s. So there’s a lot more ways a ball can fall “wrong” in CF at Fenway than at other parks (particularly given the Triangle).
I’d like to see what his home/road splits are to see if there’s a pronounced split; I’d expect there would be.
by lone1c on May 29, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coco put a 22.4/150 mark in 2007. That proves that you can do well playing half your games at Fenway park. Coco was awful last year with a -15 mark. But he is doing well in Kansas with a UZR around 22.
Johnny Damon went from a -18 mark in 2005 to a -14 mark in 2006. So he was equally awful at Fenway and at YS.
by gemf89 on May 29, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some != all
Just because it is possible doesn’t mean that everybody can or does. That’s why I wonder how much of a split there is. (For instance, if Damon was 10 on the road, he’d be -26 at Fenway but only -18 at the Toilet—a significant difference, even if both are abysmal.)
by lone1c on May 29, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure that's a road we need to go down.
I agree in that our CF has kind of crazy dimensions, but I think Curtis Granderson is a pretty damn good defensive CF, both visually and numerically, and he plays in the aforementioned Comerica Park.
By UZR: He was strangely a negative last season (lingering effects of surgery?) but has been a positive every other season including this one. I would imagine if the deepness of the park were a huge consideration, that he’d rate poorly as well.
I think for this year, it’d kind of just noise for Ellsbury. Possibly some hesitancy too.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on May 30, 2009 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding stats fluctuate just like offensive stats.
Good offensive players can put up poor offensive numbers and defensive players can do the same. So I agree that its just noise with Ellsbury. We have no reason to think that he has declined, so I doubt he has.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on May 30, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
This was a point I thought about addressing in the article. Since defense is hard to accurately evaluate by observation, I think a lot of us just form conclusions about players (Lowell or Ells = good defensively; Lugo = Bad) and then disregard anything that doesn’t fit those preconceptions.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on May 30, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jacoby put up a 16.5 UZR last year.
When you have a number like that confirming actual observations, I’d give it the weight over this year, even if there’s not nearly enough samples to really determine which is the statistical noise.
Really, if there’s any knock against Jacoby this year, it’s a lack of aggressiveness in fielding. He’s pulling up short on a lot of balls he’d have gone after last year.
by USG on May 29, 2009 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember that only about half of Jacoby’s innings last year were in CF. He played a lot in the corners.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on May 29, 2009 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question:
How is Jacoby at -.2 in UZR but 3.2 in UZR/150? I thought UZR/150 just projects past performance over the rest of the season. Does it take into account previous years and make a projection?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on May 29, 2009 3:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Look at the "Arm" component
There appears to be an “Arm” penalty that’s being deducted at its full-season value right now. That’s dragging down his numbers a bit. Presumably that won’t increase much, while the other components will increase more, giving him a slightly above-average UZR. Nothing special, but still not in negative territory.
by lone1c on May 29, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Subjective stats
What is it they say about numbers? Theres lies, damn lies and statistics. You know enough about statistical theory, you can tweak the raw data to reflect whatever you want it to. Look, there’s no denying that the Sox defense this year doesn’t hold a burned out candle to some of the more recent teams. But defense alone isn’t what’s causing Lester to implode in one inning in most games. Defense isn’t the main reason that the starting rotation has an ERA in excess of 4 while the bullpen is below 2, it’s just a factor. They walk too many batters in too many innings.
Replacing the Green/Lugo combo at short will help. Lowrie, while a lovely player, shoudn’t be the everyday SS. Fixing that will help the team.
by Jim C on May 29, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure
our defense is not the cause of Lester’s HRs! It might be partly to blame for his markedly decreased DP rates, especially since he still has a high GB%.
I will agree about using defensive stats. They are useful, but we have to remember two things. First, they are in their infancy compared to offensive ones. Second the task of correlating a player’s defense with a stat is a far harder task than looking at things like OPS which are clear, and which we have the data to say how it correlates with runs for teams. Since we cannot seperate a pitcher from his defense or one player from another in the field in a clear way, it will probably never be like it is for offense.
A useful thing to do would be to look at how UZR/150 fluctuated for a given player in his prime from year to year. My geuss is that these numbers fluctuate a fair bit more than we implicitly assume. If so, it would say that these numbers are not really predictive of useful things. Since I have not run the numbers I don’t know, but food for thought…
by Buzzy on May 29, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim C
What makes you think Lowrie shouldn’t be the everyday SS? Rob Neyer and Keith Law, among others, disagree.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 29, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love that you go on a semi-rant against stats...
Then turn around and use one of the more despised stats: ERA.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned this in another post somewhere but
Red Sox starters have an ERA of 5.26 which is 5th worst in the majors. However, our starters FIP is 4.61 which is 11th worst in the bigs. This to me tells me if we only had average defense we would have about average starting pitching.
Average Starting pitching with a great bullpen and great offense equals alot of wins.
By the way, with a difference of 0.65 between our ERA and FIP from our starting pitchers. We are second worst in the majors ahead of only cleveland.
Part of this difference could be luck but most of it is because of our awful defense. It HAS to get better.
by drabidea on May 29, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Our pitching has been performing much better recently too.
So we should have a pretty damn good staff soon, assuming the defense decides to play for the Sox and not the other teams.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding
One way to improve the team and fielding is to DH Lowell and Bay more and simply take Big Papi out of the lineup more!
by bigeasy8 on May 29, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But who do we play in their place?
If we could get a good CF, we could move Ells to LF and Bay to DH, but I wouldn’t want two CF-type batters in the lineup – it’d have to be a CF with a corner OF bat – a lesser version of Hamilton.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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