Disturbing Trend

by LouieTheLip on May 28, 2009 12:35 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

I was thinking about how awful the Red Sox look on the road this year. It left me wondering if there was a direct link. The Red Sox have one of the biggest home field advantages in baseball and have intelligently built their team around it. What I discovered may worry some.

I went back as far as 2004 when they started this run.

In 2007 the Red Sox clearly the best team in the league. There is no debate about it. They won the toughest division in baseball and rolled through the post season en route to a championship. The Red Sox road record was the best it's been during the magical run. They went 45-36.

In 2004 they won the wildcard and the championship. That year they had their second best road record over the run. They went 43-38. Almost as good as 2007, but not quite. Like the team itself.

In 2006 the red Sox finished in third and missed the playoffs. That year they had their worst road record over the past 5 years. they went 38-43

In 2005 they didn't win the division but had an identical record to the division winner and won the wildcard but lost in the playoffs. That year they had their 3rd best home record at 41-40

And finally last year 2nd place and their road record not quite as bad as in 2006 when they finished in 3rd. Last year their record was 39-42

It's uncanny. The link matches perfectly. Their best year 2007 they had the best road record. the second best year in 2004 led to the second best road record. Third best year in 2005 when they finished tied with the Yankees they had their 3rd best road record. The year they finished in 3rd and missed the playoffs they had their worst road record.

It's no surprise the Red Sox look great at home, but the last 5 years suggests the road record is a better barometer.

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Suggestions for your study:

-Does their home record provide the same result? their overall record? my guess to both is yes.

-Is this specific to the Sox or is it a general trend? meaning do most good teams win significantly more at home? my guess is also yes.

I think this is a trend for most teams, not just the Sox. I am not going to look it up though, so I’ll let you give it a look.

by BTLove on May 28, 2009 3:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Umm

Awful? Out of the 14 road losses the Red Sox lost 10 by 3 runs or less, 3 went to extra innings and 8 were by only 1 run…

And proving that a team who can win on the road has a better chance to win the WS does not seem too revolutionary to me. Just watch the NBA Playoffs if you need more evidence.

by SoxAcumen on May 28, 2009 5:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have also noted this trend, and the point is

what does this trend indicate for this year’s Sox team? I was beginning to beleive that this year’s team may only be a tad better than the 2006 team that could not win on the road, etc.

by NG on May 28, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Possibly NG

but we are only at the end of May. Our Sp has be less than expected, Papi, well Papi has been bad and we are playing without our starting SS. I think judgment should be held for another month or so.

If the Sox had gotten a hit here or there or a few less eras its very likely they could of only lost 11 instead of 14 on the road, which makes the road record look better.

Personally, living in LA and seeing the Dodgers every night, I am not impressed with anyone and believe there are a hand ful of teams who have a legit shot to win it all, including the Red Sox.

by SoxAcumen on May 28, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Louie is right on with this analysis!

The one saving grace is that this season is only 33% over, so the road record could yet improve. However, how many here believe that road record will imporve given the many, many problems that seem to be surfacing in a team that on paper looks very good, especially the pitching. Makes me wonder if there is some conditioning problems with the starting pitching, and coupled with a few momentum suckers, that is poisoning the effort too much. Hopefully not, but the last two night’s have sucked!

by NG on May 28, 2009 7:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Considering that we got all of the West Coast road trips out of the way...

Might that help improve our record?

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ho hum

Who cares? All that matters is overall record. Last year, both teams in the ALCS had losing road records in the regular season: .494 WP for Tampa and .481 WP for the Sox.

This year only two teams in the AL—the MFY and Rangers—currently have winning records on the road.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on May 28, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Okay let me get this straight...

So what you’re saying is that a good road record has a direct connection with a good overall record to get you into the playoffs? And that if you have a less than average road record the chances are that you won’t make the playoffs?

Well slap me silly and call me Shirley, you’ve just stated the obvious!

And for the record, I am serious and don’t call me Shirley.

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by mystman995 on May 28, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

by Schulz on May 28, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You want to talk about if our team is good or not based on record?

How about looking at the actual team?

Mediocre-at-best defense on the left side of the field.
The 5th worst starting pitching in the majors.
1 giant black hole on offense. 2 depending on how you feel about the luck of Nick Green.

by Ben Buchanan on May 28, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But

…is that bad? ;-)

by Buzzy on May 28, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say that Lugo is obviously garbage, but Lowell is an above-average defender. If the giant black whole is Ortiz than I agree. If you’re talking about ’Tek on the other hand, I have to stop you right there. He already has 10 HRs and is swinging pretty well for us- better than anyone expected anyway. As for the starting pitching, I think it will come around eventually.

by Schulz on May 28, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowell has been worse in the field this year.

He is -2.4 by UZR. It might just be a blip, as he has been above average most of his career, but he might be have lost something after the surgery.

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by BTLove on May 28, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Give him time to get some games off and learn to play on his new hip.

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's DEFINITELY Ortiz. I have 0 complaints about Tek...

Well, it’d be nice if he’d get on base more, but considering what we came in expecting…

Lowell is definitely worse now. He can’t cover nearly as much ground, if his reflexes are still good. Hell, just watch him run the bases if you need proof of that.

Some of the SP will come around. Beckett already has, as I expected he would about 3-4 starts ago. He just has looked good this month. But Lester seems to be suffering the effects of overwork last season, even if some of it is luck. Wake is regressing to his own personal mean, and I don’t think Daisuke has what it takes to ever be anything more than an average #3 guy in the major leagues so long as he sticks to his current ideology. ‘08 was a super-lucky blip. Things SHOULD improve if we get Smoltz up and Beckett keeps it going, but I’m seriously pushing for a Lester DL trip + Buchholz call-up.

by Ben Buchanan on May 28, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't call our SP the 5th worst.

The team itself has given up the 5th most runs – that’s what we should take away from that. I mean, it’s ERA, and our pitching has been having luck/stupidity issues all year long.

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 1, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs