Breaking Down Jon Lester's "One Bad Inning"
by Randy Booth on May 27, 2009 1:07 PM EDT
in News
35 comments
Take a look at Jon Lester's numbers and you just want to cringe. They're bad, they're ugly and they don't seem to be getting any better.
But if you take a deeper look, maybe Lester hasn't been that bad. But first, let's take a look at his overall numbers. Note: you may want to hide your child's eyes if they are viewing:
Those certainly aren't numbers we want out of our No. 2 starter. That's not going to win the Red Sox any World Series, either.
But it's been mentioned before: Lester, for the most part, has been a victim of just one bad inning per start. Typical of Lester, he may go into the fifth or sixth inning without surrendering a run and then give up five. There goes that good game and just watch that ERA balloon.
This was just an observation, of course. But now let's actually break down those stats.
I went through all 10 games started for Lester and decided to just pretend one inning per game didn't exist. I just struck it from the record because I have that type of power. The results were quite astounding:
- Of Lester's 40 runs surrendered this season, 77.5 percent (31 runs) came in just one inning of each game.
- His ERA in those 10 innings of work is 27.90.
- His ERA without those 10 innings of work is a nifty 1.65.
- The most common inning Lester has "blown up" in is the 5th, which has happened four times. Other innings include: 4th (twice), 2nd, 6th and 7th (all once).
- The only game in which Lester didn't "blow up" was April 19 versus Baltimore where he didn't allow any runs in seven innings of work.
- In his bad innings, Lester has allowed five runs three times, four runs once, and three runs three times.
So it all seems to be true. Imagine having Lester with a 1.65 ERA this season. No doubt he would be a Cy Young contender and would probably have six or seven wins under his belt. Instead, the bad inning mojo has led to a 3-5 record with a 6.07 ERA.
Now we hope that in future outings Lester can keep doing what he's doing -- minus that notorious bad inning.
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Funny
last night’s game sent me this morning to baseball-reference.com to do the same check. Even though I though it was the case, just looking at the gamelogs was really amazing.
I don’t think this is completely random. He does seem to be putting himself more at risk than he has in the past. He is not elevating his fastball when he is ahead of the count, he is not locating his off-speed stuff as well, and he is too far off with his “ahead in the count” off-the-plate stuff. Unlike last year, he has reverted back to a less-than-effective pitcher against lefties. It does really look like this is fixable, though. Interestingly, his tRA is better than Joba Chamberlain’s, even though Joba has an era of 3.97 to lester’s over 6. In fact, even when adjusted for park, Lester’s tRA is only not better than CC’s on the Yankees staff. tRA is a better indicator of a pitcher’s pitching than era, unfortunately it is Lester’s era that is killing us.
by Buzzy on May 27, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, Randy
A minor quibble: Lester has made 10 starts. He has “blown up” in only 6 of them. All pitchers give up runs. I consider these starts his non-“blow up” starts:
4/19 v. Baltimore (mentioned in the post) 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 9 K
4/24 v. MFY 6 IP 7 H 2 ER 3 BB 7 K
5/4 v. MFY 7 IP 6 H 3 ER 2 BB 10 K
5/21 v. Toronto 6.1 IP 8 H 1 ER 2 BB 4 K
While Lester gave up 3 runs in one inning in the 5/4 game v. the MFY, he didn’t really “blow-up.” Incidentally, he is 3-0 with 1 ND in the 4 games I listed.
What is most disheartening to me about Lester so far this year is his inability to get left-handed hitters out. Lefties are hitting .300 AVG/.351 OBP/.614 SLG (.333 BABIP) v. Lester. He has allowed a .965 OPS against lefties, compared to an .823 OPS v. righties. While neither is good, his lack of success facing righties is largely the result of a .387 BABIP.
Last year Lester was lights out, but a little lucky v. lefties: .217 AVG/.269 OBP/.302 SLG (.269 BABIP). He was also good against left-handed hitters in 2007. In 2008, his K/BB ratio v. lefties was 4/1, far better than any of his previous seasons. This year, Lester’s K/BB ratio against lefties is exactly the same as last year: 4/1.
The biggest difference between this year and last year is the HR. So far, Lester has allowed 5 HR in 188 PA v. right-handed and 6 HR in 77 PA v. left-handed hitters. Another thing that is striking is the lack of DPs. In 10 starts, the opposition has only hit into 4 DP (as opposed to 27 in 33 GS last year).
Lester’s BB-rate is slightly worse this year when compared to last year: 2.8 BB/9 (2008), 3.2 BB/9 (2009). But his K-rate is much better: 6.5 K/9 (2008) 9.4 K/9 (2009). Lester is giving up way too many hits (11.2 H/9, the same as Brad Penny). He is also hitting fewer hitters than last year. Maybe he is around the plate too much and the hitters are more comfortable. Who knows? It is puzzling.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 27, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True about the “blow ups.” I just took the worst inning from each start as a guideline. In the Toronto game, that bad inning was one run, like you said, and you’re right, it’s not defined as a “blow up” but I used it as his “one bad inning” although it wasn’t that bad.
by Randy Booth on May 27, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's check his LD%, FB%, and GB%:
Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%
2008 Red Sox 1.49 20.7 % 47.5 % 31.8 % 12.9 % 7.0 % 6.3 % 28.6 %
2009 Red Sox 1.22 20.9 % 43.5 % 35.6 % 4.8 % 17.5 % 5.2 % 100.0 %
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 27, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also worth looking into
What is his velocity this year compared to last year? It looks like there are a lot more 95-97 mph pitches, especially early on. It looks like he’s trying to blow hitters away, rather than pitching to them. I suspect it also means that a well-struck flyball has a much better chance of going yard.
(After all, the change is the same as making 1 ball out of every 25 hit a fly ball instead of a ground ball, which is not even 1 per game. However, that ball seems to be a HR.)
by lone1c on May 27, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here is quick comparison from fangraph for speed (mean value i guess)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P#pitchtype
2006 Red Sox FB 90.2 Slider 80.7 Curve 71.0 CH 81.0
2007 Red Sox FB 89.9 Cutter 85.0 Curve 72.3 CH 82.7
2008 Red Sox FB 92.1 Cutter 88.4 Curve 76.2 CH 83.9
2009 Red Sox FB 92.8 Cutter 88.9 Curve 77.8 CH 84.9
(All pitch types in this section are provided by Baseball Info Solutions…)
not looking dramatic and i am not sure though how accurate this data is?
i would like to look at the standard derivation and the mean variation for the FB to see if you are right with your 95-97 mph pitches but i do not have a clue how/where to access this data.
next up would be to look at the HR (count, pitch, location, sequence).
maybe he is tipping?
i remember Beckett had a strange HR total a few seasons ago (about double than his “normal”) but i cant remember why.
i can only rely on stats about Lester because i could not see many games of him this year yet and even when i missed his bad innings cause i fall to sleep before.
but i bet what does not help is his .374 BABIP (overall).
by OilCanBoyd on May 28, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I left my labtop open to do some stuff
and my kid nephew saw Lester numbers mentionned above and now he’s screaming in agony!!
It’s all your fault Randy! Shame on you! ;p
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Put him in the bullpin until he calms down
Obviously Lester is good for 4 innings and maybe 5. The truth is if a pitcher can’t pitch 90 to 100 pitches a game, then he should not be a starter. I believe that he is losing his control due to a lack of endurance. He should spend this year in the bullpin as a long term reliever there to save a starter who has a bad night. He has been losing games for the Sox and in a tight 4 team race in the division we can’t take any chances. It already took much too long to address the Ortiz situation and I would hate to lose more due to the skipper’s inability to see the obvious. Put Masterson back in the rotation until Smoltz comes back and hope Smoltz does a decent job. If Lester can condition in the offseason give him another chance next year. Anyway thats my 2 cents. And for the Love of God, SIT LUGO AND LET NICK GREEN START AT SHORTSTOP.
by spyt_drummer90 on May 27, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If that were to happen, Buchholz would probably start over Masterson.
by Randy Booth on May 27, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Which means the Sox would have to get rid of a relief pitcher to make room for Lester. Masterson hasn’t been exactly lights out as a starter. In fact, his numbers this year suggest that he gets hit hard after 50 pitches.
Also, Lester’s problems aren’t due to “a lack of endurance.” His stats from pitches 76-100 are almost identical to his numbers for pitches 1-25.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 27, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Lester, from what I saw, tends to have a bad inning then come back out and have a good one. I think it may have only been one or two occassions where he was hit hard and came right out or didn’t pitch any more after that.
by Randy Booth on May 27, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not get 2-for-1
use Masterson / Lester as a duo. Start either and have the other be his relief. Hold them both to a “pitch count”. all “4” win (Masterson & Lester still get their work in, the Sox win, the Fans are happy). So let’s “platoon” them, they both know to go out they and give everything for say 4 innings, then let the pen come in and finnish it up. Can’t hurt, but, i sure some of our “experts” on here will say other wise.
by pizdof on May 27, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So long as you're using Masterson for long middle relief
Rather than effectively starters’ duties, it’s not so bad, as ideas go. However, if this means you can only use Masterson once every five days, it doesn’t look so hot, as that means more work for the rest of the bullpen.
by lone1c on May 27, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Unless pizdof assumed that by having two guys combine for 8 innings every five games, we’d save the bullpen.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 27, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The analysis done by Randy was based on innings, but what about pitch count?
I tend to think that Lester is tiring after about 65-70 pitches, and if so, I would agree with your analysis.
by NG on May 27, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
put him in the bullpen???
And who are these starters that have more endurance than Lester?
Skip a start if you want to, but “he should spend this year in the bullpin(sic)” is just a bit ridiculous, isn’t it?
He pitched 221 innings last year with a 3.21 ERA. This is not somebody who should be relegated to the bullpen for an entire season.
by RickD on May 27, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 27, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fatigue? Maybe eat a nutrigrain bar after the fourth Jon? Hopefully it’s not what he had a couple of years ago…
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."
by revigik on May 27, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We shouldn't think like that, but that's a possibility.
God, that would suck. No one on the team would be able to take the field.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 27, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The defensive struggles have not helped either
At least two of those innings are not really the result of bad pitching, but bad defense instead.
For instance, there was the start against the Rays where he couldn’t read what was happening at second, then gave up five runs. Another could be laid directly at the (mired in cement) feet of Jul-E6-o, who let five ground balls go by him in the same inning. Again, they weren’t “errors” per se, so they still count against his ERA.
So there’s certainly a lot of room for improvement—-especially since he’s getting more K’s and not giving up more BB’s.
by lone1c on May 27, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We sometimes forget how young Lester is.
He is learning and makes mistakes. I think we all can agree that he has the stuff to dominate, but maybe the teams know him better and its time for Lester to adjust.
Honestly, I am not worried about Lester, he will come around. Maybe that is overly optimistic but I just he has the talent and must work through this slump.
by SoxAcumen on May 27, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No GDT tonight?
For all things Boston College please visit my blog: Towers on the Heights
by beantownkid10 on May 27, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looks like there's not!
Guys here are kind of lazy compared to the other bloggers oof SB nation :(
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oof?
You could volunteer to be a front page writer, hix. Or just make a FanPost.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 27, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*of not oof :)
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll start doin' Fanpost in the near future
I’m just frustrated to see the other blogs, especially DRB and the MFY, havin’ 4-5 posts a day and here at OTM we miss even the GDT!
Fuckin’ sad
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why did they miss GDT?
I’ve never seen that happen
by LesterJohn on May 27, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They do it on regular basis!
Missing GDT for the OTM staff, is like Errors for Lugo: they can’t live without them !
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because Randy, Allen, E.Coli, Devil, and ltrain2 all come on less often than some of the other users.
It’s also not THE Sox site, unlike other teams (Rays, Athletics, Angels, etc).
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 27, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draysbay, pinstripe alley and all the others blogs of SB nation are inofficial teams sites
I am 100% positive on that!
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 27, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
None of them are official.
But they are the most popular for their fanbases.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 31, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
Pretty harsh considering your involvement (or lack of) in the site. Start your own game-thread, its not very hard. We are not the most active of the SBN blogs (mostly because there are many, many RedSox communities out there, and only one or two for teams like the Rays), but we are much, much more active than Pinstripe Alley. Also, there are barely any other days all season that the Game-thread was not on the front page.
by BTLove on May 28, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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