Manny Delcarmen for Nick Johnson trade?
by Randy Booth on May 22, 2009 12:50 PM EDT
in News
90 comments
The Red Sox may need a hitter. The Washington Nationals need everything. Could the Sox potentially work something out with the Nats? Perhaps:
Peter Gammons told ESPN's Mike & Mike In The Morning on Thursday that the Nationals have discussed swapping Nick Johnson for Boston's Manny Delcarmen.
The Red Sox will probably give David Ortiz a little more time to get his swing figured out before pulling the trigger. If he can't get it turned around, Johnson would make a nice fit. He's batting .338/.435/.473 this season with four home runs and 25 RBI in 148 at-bats. Delcarmen has been lights out, with a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings, but the Red Sox have enough pitching depth in their system to cope with the loss.
I'm not sure if a Manny D./Nick Johnson swap is the best thing for us. Johnson is mashing right now for the Nats, but I don't know how he'd make the transition to being a Red Sox. Delcarmen would probably DOMINATE in a Nats uniform on the flipside.
What about you? Pull the trigger?
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Hell NO!!!!
’nuff said!
The only Red Sox fan in a country where nobody cares about basball!
by radiohix on May 22, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Who the fuck in our front office is even stupid enough to consider this?
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on May 22, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There should be another option...
“Wait to see how Papi does in the next month”
Also might want to look into if we can include Delcarmen in a MODEST package for Dunn.
by USG on May 22, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i could get behind that one
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on May 22, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me too.
MDC should get us more than Nick Johnson.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give Ortiz some time
Im not to keen on trading the guy who has been, arguably, the most effective reliever in our BP for a band aid at 1B. I am sure by now we all know Johnson’s health problems in the past and as Randy pointed out we don’t know how he would transition in Fenway.
by ritz on May 22, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Ortiz needs at least a months more chance. And based on Johnsons career numbers, he won’t keep this pace up for much longer.
by JackofAllTrades on May 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the best response on the board
Such a trade makes no sense. Johnson can hit, but we don’t need a 1B. “Plenty of bullpen pitching depth” can turn into a mediocre bullpen with one sore shoulder. Keep our hometown boy. We can deal with a slumping Papi, we need SS help and catching prospects.
by getch22 on May 25, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes plenty of sense.
We have the deepest pen in the game. We have Bowden, Bard and Smoltz that can add to that depth. MDC is our 4th option out of the pen. We need hitting out of DH. If Ortiz continues to hit like this, it will be fatal to the offense. Right now our offense is perhaps the 4th best in our own division, and the Ortiz problem is perhaps the major reason for that.
I am all for being patient and waiting. Hell, we are in 1st place right now. But if this continues it can really hinder our season. I agree that getting Jed back, the stabalization of the starting pitching, etc, are all going to help a lot, but the offense has not looked this bad since 06, and that is with essentially ALL starting players save Ortiz having decent to excellent offensive seasons right now.
A fourth option out of the pen with our pen depth is not that important, sorry. Our season is not going to be made or broken by MDC, much as I like him. It can be made or broken by the hitting we get from DH. Johnson can indeed put up the #’s he has so far if healthy (and he has done it in the AL East before). Right now his OPS is 915 and his wOBA is 409. In 2006 he has a full season of 948 and 405. Last year Hanley Ramirez was 958, and 411. This means that Nick Johnson is capable of putting up numbers (if healthy) in the same range as Hanley did last year. Please try to argue against that.
Of course the big issue is health. But I think it is a gamble that does make sense, especially when you factor in that Johnson’s injuries have mostly been freak fielding related injuries, that he is 30, and that he will mostly DH. A healthy Johnson turns this team from a good but not great offensive team in the AL to an offensive powerhouse (as would even last year’s David Ortiz). MDC turns our pen from the best pen in baseball, to the best pen in baseball with a talented 4th option.
by Buzzy on May 25, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My
heart says no, but my head says yes. Johnson is a very accomplished hitter, with a lot of plate discipline and an OPS+ of 137, 149, 123, 136 the last 4 years. He is injured a lot, so that is a risk. He does not have the traditional power #’s, but he is a very good offensive player. I really do like Delcarmen, but with Masterson in the pen, and Bard as well, and the possibility of Bowden and Smoltz in the pen after the ASB, it is hard to argue with, especially the way Tito uses Manny. I really want to believe that Ortiz will bounce back, but the best we really could hope for is a Nick Johnson-level performance from here on out anyway.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At least one of his injuries was pretty fluky.
Collision at 1b, or something.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 22, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess Ortiz is either fading or not healthy. Our batters looked less dangerous against Tampa Bay in ALCS last year. The trade may make sense. Drew and Lowell are injury-prone. Youk and Pedroia just got hurt. You don’t want Bay next. We need somebody to protect him.
by GreenGrizz on May 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nick Johnson?
I thought he was dead.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on May 22, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nick Johnson
goes on the DL when he nicks himself shaving….no thanks.
If the Red Sox are looking for a bat, lets not waste talent on guys who “might” help, go after someone who will help. As T. Verducci suggested, see if San Diego will deal A. Gonzalez and get someone who can “mash.”
by SoxAcumen on May 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dude
what planet do you live on-Yankee-Fan world? Why in the world would SD give up a guy who was the #1 overall pick, is young, a legit all-star and loves playing for his home town team? It would take a ransom to get him. On the otherhand, while AGon is a far better player than Johnson, it will take far, far, far less to get Johnson, who puts up similar OPS+ numbers to Gonzalez and (in relative terms to what you would have to give up and pay), costs far less.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Johnson
will be on the DL by July, go ahead trade a stud relief arm for a player with chronic injury problems to sit on your DL for 1 year. Personally, I would rather trade some top level prospects to a franchise who is trying to stay out of bankruptcy, barely pulls 8k a night in attendance, and willing to move one of the top players in either league for below market value. AG is young, he is an excellent fielder, left handed power hitter and under control…but most importantly, the Padres are desperate to move salary.
Hey, you can think i’m crazy if you like, but there are people who write about baseball for a living throwing out the same idea: Adrian Gonzalez does nothing for San Diego now, but trading him revitalizes their system and saves them money.
But to answer your question: Baseball is a business, we are in a recession, the Padres are under new ownership, they are losing money daily and they will not be a contender in 4 or 5 years which means AG does nothing for them.
Did you just compare Nick Johnson and Adrian Gonzalez as similar players at the plate?
by SoxAcumen on May 22, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
uh, yeah.
So, that means exactly that they would want Bowden, Buchholz+more for AG. Regardless of what you think about such a potential trade, you have to know that Theo would never do that. You may call MDC a stud relief arm, and I tend to agree, but we have mucho backup (Masterson+Bowden+Bard+Smoltz) to go along with what already is a deep and potent bullpen. Theo basically uses MDC as his 5th option after Paps, RamRam, Oki and Masterson (when he is in the pen).
AG: Career OPS+ of 127.
Johnson: Career OPS+ of 126.
So, how are the not similar offensive players? I would never argue that AG is not much more valuable, and is better offensively (especially when you factor in age-since he is still reaching his potential), but injury aside, it is impossible to argue that they have not been, to this point, similar offensively. More to the point, they are similar and Johnson can be had for much, much, much less.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, you can think i’m crazy if you like, but there are people who write about baseball for a living throwing out the same idea: Adrian Gonzalez does nothing for San Diego now, but trading him revitalizes their system and saves them money.
That’s a good one. Generally those who write about baseball know nothing about it, don’t you know that?
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can't stay healthy enough
So, no. I’d give them a lower prospect, but they wouldn’t do it so I don’t see a trade happening.
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
by MerryGoByeBye on May 22, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He is fragile
but all but one of his injuries have been freak, fielding related injuries. He would be mostly a DH in the AL. He has also shown that he has come back from the wrist injury in terms of his hitting. OK-I am not going to argue for it anymore-I want to keep Papi and MDC, but if Theo pulled the trigger I would fully understand why.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
If we trade for him, it’s because the brass thinks Papi is done, and Johnson would spend much of his time at DH, reducing the injury potential.
Johnson is Theo’s kind of hitter. High OBP, good pop, works the count. Probably the best hitter we could get without trading Buch, Bowden, Lars, etc.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 22, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
Johnson is Theo’s kind of hitter. High OBP, good pop, works the count. Probably the best hitter we could get without trading Buch, Bowden, Lars, etc.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a hint here, Buzzy:
Use the " button in between the strike-through and the chain-link button for a quote box.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 22, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure the Nat's would want Delcarmen.
He would probably immediately be their closer, but this is his last year before arbitration eligibility. He is due for a fairly significant raise next year (especially if he does become their closer and racks up some saves.) On the other hand, they would be dealing from a position of strength (the 1B/ corner OF position).
Personally, I’ve always though Nick Johnson was a very good hitter who is fairly under-priced. I love MDC, but do we really need him? Our bullpen is nasty and Bard has not gotten any high-leverage innings yet. I say we give Papi a little more time, and if he doesn’t improve, do it.
by BTLove on May 22, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Nat's would take half the Redsox AAA.
They are so bad and have no depth right now. Believe me, Nick Johnson is aging while MDC is going into his prime. This isn’t about money, its about get younger and better. If this is about money/ arbitration, then why in the hell did they offer a 175+ million dollar contract to Mark Texeira? Money is NOT the issue.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on May 22, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Johnson
is 30, cheap and productive. MDC is as well. But MDC is a relief pitcher, the least valuable component of a team that has many quality options out of the pen. Money is always an issue, that is why Tex’s offer was capped, and he went to the Yankees.
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
money is an issue for the Nats, not us.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was:
The Nats might not want to trade for a relief arm who is set to make a few million next year. The Sox, on the other hand, could care less about a few million here or there.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if the Sox make a deal it will be for A gonz.
by matzushocka45 on May 22, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What team have you been following?
when has Theo ever traded top prospects?
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MDC isn't a 1:1 player trade
He is a 2:1 to 3 AAA players to 1 trade.
It is better off to put Papi in the 7 spot in the line up, and wait. Put Lowell, Bay or Drew in the 3 spot. Personally, even though it is two righties in a row, I would have Youk in the 3 spot and Bay in Clean up.
This is sort of a deja vu Bronson Arroyo/Wily Mo Peña trade, good pitcher for a an out of shape slugger. Call up Kevin Towers, and see what is willing to sell.
A slugger who hits the ball a mile, who I would trade MDC on a 1:1 basis is Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks. He hit a monster into the 2nd or 3rd Deck in Miami against the Marlins.
by superferret on May 22, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Totally different
Pena has absolutely no plate discipline. Johnson has a 400 career OBP. Arroyo was a starter when the Sox had no depth in the rotation while MDC is a relief pitcher on team with supreme pen depth. Papi with a 650 OPS in the 7th spot is not much different than Papi with a 650 OPS in the 3 hole. And who is going to trade Upton straight up for a relief pitcher?
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So many things...
First of all, Nick Johnson is an 30 year old major leaguer that has been hitting at a high level for many years. If he was not so injury prone, he would be making $15 mil per year instead of $5 mil. The risk here is not the quality of Nick Johnson, but how many games we would get out of him (and his lack of defensive ability).
Justin Upton for MDC? Really? Justin Upton was the #1 overall draft pick in 2005. He is 21 years old and has excelled all the way through the minor leagues and was an above average major league hitter as a 20 year old.. He is currently slugging .612. A relief pitcher is not nearly enough to get Upton. Look at what the Royals got for Ramon Ramirez, a pretty good comparison for Manny Delcarmen. They got Coco Crisp, a solid major leaguer but not exactly Justin Upton. We have to start getting real around here about the value of our guys.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good pitcher takes precedence over a good player.
MDC can be a closer for many MLB teams. You don’t trade him for often injured position player/dh. Much like I wouldn’t trade him for a 2002 David Ortiz, an often injured position player/DH. You go for the same caliber position player.
If the Diamondbacks need a closer or a 8th inning bridge, you don’t settle for 2 AA prospects or a player to be named later for MDC.
In 2007 when the Sox were thinking of getting Jermaine Dye in his walk year, the White Sox only wanted one player, Okajima, who was a cornerstone of the 2007 Sox’s bullpen and pitching, may be a more rational trade now, but at the time, there was no way.
I don’t think the Ramizez/Crisp trade is a good analogy. Crisp is pretty erratic as a hitter, a gold glove centerfielder. The main draw for Crisp is his defense in a critical defensive position.
As much as the Red Sox bullpen seemed stuff with talent, it also eases the workloads and lowers ERA and WHIP for every member of the bullpen.
If the Sox are going to trade MDC, they need to get top notch player in return.
by superferret on May 24, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should be: a good starting pitcher takes precedence over a good position player. Bullpen arms (and especially closers) are way overvalued by a lot of people. They pitch 80 innings at the most (and though they are high leverage innings) and those innings are only a small part of the season.
Billy Beane’s favorite thing to do was/is to take a talented relief arm, get him a lot of saves and then trade him to some team who thinks those saves mean he is an MVP. Beane knows how overvalued those relief innings are and I think Theo does too.
MDC is a good player, but there are many, many players like him. How many starting pitchers would be dominant relief men? A lot. He is not exactly a rare commodity.
How is RamRam not a good analogy? He is very, very similar to MDC? The are basically the same player. Many would say that RamRam is actually better and he fetched Coco. A good, but not great player. That is what MDC will get us as well.
by BTLove on May 24, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely.
You can MDC’s leverage stats at baseballreference.com. Last year MDC pitched against 93 high leverage PAs. He also faced 65 medium and 149 low leverage. This means that more than 1/2 of the batters MDC faced were in low leverage situations. This made him not so valuable. In general people do not understand that your pen is very important, but it only comprises 1/3 of total innings and is made up of about 8 guys who take innings over the year. While MDC has some of the nastiest stuff on the staff, he is not that valuable as imployed by the Sox. He is mostly employed as he was today-with a 2 or more run lead to start an inning that is not the 8th or 9th, and he is at best behind RamRam, Oki and Paps in the pecking order. In the playoffs last year he was also behind Masterson.
Given the more and more obvious clear need for someone to hit from the DH spot, there are only a few options. Hope Papi can do something (not looking like it), use Chris Carter or an internal option, or trade a chip from a pool that you have a lot of (like MDC) for a decent bat. The option of trading for a really high profile player like AGon, etc will not happen. let’s not discuss it anymore.
by Buzzy on May 24, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and
a great position player takes precedence over anyone. Not that Nick Johnson is anywhere close to a great position player. It is funny how the cliche about pitchers gets misused so often.
by Buzzy on May 24, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
No. Good pitching beats good hitting – always.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 24, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably true. But rarely is one great individual pitcher more important than one great individual position player (Pedro for a few years was an obvious exception)
by BTLove on May 25, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if you look
by WAR the very best position players > very best pitchers. But not sure that is a fair way to judge. A great pitcher can shut down a great hitter, but with fielding and games factored in, it is not clear that a great picher exceeds in value a great hitter.
by Buzzy on May 25, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what I was saying. Though Pedro in his prime might have led the league in WAR, I dunno.
by BTLove on May 25, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go for Dunn
I’m not sure they’ll do it because they seem like they want to build around him. But, the Nats have plenty of offense, and young guys too. What they need is pitching.
If the deal got Dunn (ha-ha! Get it!) for Dunn, it would certainly take Manny D. and probably Buch + BUT we would be getting a 35+ home run guy with great plate discipline, OPS, doesn’t ground into double, plays for the next several years. He’s a lousy fielder and I hope he’d accept a DH role, but he is exactly the kind of hitter we’re looking for, especially if signing Bay is up in the air.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 22, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Theo would never
trade Buch and MDC for Dunn. Dunn has a career OPS+ of 131. You would add Buch in a trade for an upgrade of OPS+ over Johnson of 5 points, not to mention the 10Mil price tag?
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go for Dunn?
We had a chance to go for Dunn this past off-season, at no trade cost, and Theo would have none of it. Yeah he has power but he also strikes out like crazy and sucks at any field position. If we get him, we have to jettison Ortiz, which won’t happen.
We’re done with Dunn I’m afraid.
by jdn on May 22, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just imagine...
3 and 4 Youkilis and Dunn. My mouth is just watering for it.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 22, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, let's hope Theo
is considering more than only OPS. That’s one stat and it doesn’t operate in a vacuum.
I admit, I’m not much of a stat geek, but I’ve seen Dunn play quite a bit (I live 2 blocks from Nationals stadium) and he’s a quality clubhouse guy and a great hitter, good discipline, etc, see above for more of my praise of his hitting.
And on the money, 10 Mil is a good deal for a 4-spot hitter, and I think Dunn is definitely one of the better ones, with plenty of good years left.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 22, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RBB, use the "+ reply" button to create a comment that is nested under the original, shifted over.
Makes a thread much easier to follow.
OPS, while not perfect (park factors, league factors – both fixed in OPS+, IIRC), is probably the best hitting stat because it measures both discipline and power/speed.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 22, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only stat
than really means anything for a team’s offense is OPS. It is funny you say that about Dunn since most people view him as an apathetic load. Hence Riccardi’s comment “this guy does not care about baseball.”
by Buzzy on May 22, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
spliiting hairs
better but really the same thing.
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 6:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
by wOBA Johnson should be even more valued. By wOBA+, aside from this year, he has been far superior to AGon (will not continue going forward though). Suprisingly similar to vintage Ortiz wOBA+.
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 6:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reason is that he gets on base so well. The problem with OPS is that it weights one point of SLG and one point of OBP exactly the same, while OBP should be more valuable. A guy who has a high OPS because of on base skill is actually marginally more valuable than one who SLG’s well.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes i agree
OPS is simply a fudge adding of 2 unrelated stats, while the linear weights in the “derived” wOBA favors OBP more. However, as a scientist I find this kind of BS. First there is no real derivation of wOBA anyway. Second, the correlation with runs scored in wOBA for team is not better than OPS, wo why care?
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correlating with runs scored is not necessarily the best way to judge a metric that is designed to show an individual’s impact. For example, wouldn’t runs scored or RBI have almost a perfect correlation with runs scored? Does this mean that they measure a player’s individual impact better than any stats?
I found the article that attempts to figure our the best “run estimator” and then I found TangoTiger’s response which is basically, “wOBA is not a team run estimator.” They get into some pretty technical stuff that I didn’t feel like reading through. There did seem to be some problems with the analysis by the evaluator of the stats.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have seen that article
and I found it unconvincing. I don’t doubt that wOBA has a more satisfying justification. However justification is not derivation. All of these metrics should be viewed as empirical and to be validated only as a means to be compared with gross data via a correlation coefficient.
Now so what should we compare? Since it is a team that scores runs, we can only compare to the team. We cannot look at “individual runs” so how can we validate the greater significance of wOBA for offense? I would contend you can’t.
That brings up the final point. Since anything based on Slugging and OBP is reasonably assumed to be context independent, it is reasonable to assume that team OPS is just the aggregate OPS of individual players. The same for wOBA. Thus it is fair to compare team wOBA to team OPS.
A study should be done to see if OPS is indeed context specfic. For example does it depend on where one hits in the lineup? Are teams whose OPS does not correlate with their total runs outliers because their OPS is distributed as slugging heavy as opposed to OBP heavy? Without such studies I will assume that OPS is completely context independent and then team OPS or wOBA does imply that individual OPS oe wOBA is the direct contributor to a metric that measures runs a player has contributed.
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
to be a bit more clear, you can’t use runs or RBIs, because these nubmers are, effectively, the teams runs scored (team RBIs is most of, and runs all of). Further, these numbers are completely context specific, while OPS and wOBA depend completely on factors under the hitter’s control only. This is part of what I mean by “context independent.”
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
But, I still think Dunn is the far superior #4-hitter of the two and has the plate approach we’re looking for. Plus, he stays healthy.
I also think he’ll do well in Fenway. He thrived on the big stage at the WBC —whatever you think about the WBC, in my humble opinion, the players took it as a big stage with the word watching. About his attitude, I think the club house and a legitimat shot at a WS ring will keep him energized.
However, I was wrong. I thought the Nats signed him to a much longer contract, but it’s only two years.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 22, 2009 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we agree more than we disagree
Dunn is probably the better answer, and I’m not sure that Johnson is any kind of real answer. But Dunn, and unless we get lucky and find a real gem of a deal, anybody that will give us that real power threat and would be worth re-signing to take over that #4 spot longer term, is probably not worth the asking price at this point.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 22, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You can't discuss this without talking about durability.
Nick Johnson is a very good hitter but he is easily injured. He is worse than JD Drew for injuries. He would make as much as Dunn and probably be on the WBC team if he had played 150 games per year for the last 7 years.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as I said before
Johnson’s injuries have largely been freak, fileding related injuries. As a DH I hardly think he will breakdown like Drew. Anyway, I agree, far from perfect…
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Manny for Nick
1. I love Nick Johnson, but he is a 1B, he is not a good enough hitter to be a DH. 20 HR once. 75 RBI once.
2. We already have a 1B
3. Our best position player prospect is a 1B,
4. I love Nick Johnson, but he’s always hurt…we have a lot of pitching, but there is no such thing as too much pitching. Manny is having an excellent year and his trade value has never been higher. I would rather not use it on a 31 year old guy with a pretty swing who’s never healthy enough to contribute with it.
by tommy9central on May 23, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don’t look at counting stats to judge a hitter. Look at rate stats.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the against comments come in 4 flavors:
1)No-“lets go get someone better”-This is unrealistic unless you give up a lot. And by a lot I mean way more than MDC. Only bad organizations would give up prime pitching prospects to fill the DH hole.
2)No-“lets trade for [insert superstar]”-again will not happen and is in the relm of those dumb trades proposed on dumb sports radio. While it may involve a name thrown out by some baseball reporter, you can bet that reporter X has no info related to said trade. Such trades rarely happen for a reason similar to (1), and usually “involve” players that are not going to move anyway.
3)“Johnson is not a good enough hitter to be a DH”-Not true-he would be in the upper third or even higher of DH OPS. We have been spoiled by Papi; usually DH’s are not the teams best offensive weapon.
4)“MDC is too much to give up”-MDC is a very good relief pitcher, but relief pitchers (not the aggregate pen) are the easiest commodity to come by. MDC pitches maybe 20 high leverage innings a year. He is our 4th or 5th option out of the pen. To say that is too much misses the relative value of upping the OPS from our DH spot by 200 points vs your 4th option out of the pen.
Look, I don’t even like Johnson, and he is hurt a lot. I love Papi and MDC. But the fact is that any option you guys “like” is going to cost a whole lot more than MDC, is will not be worth it to the long term planning of this team. If Johnson stays in the lineup, he is a huge upgrade over our current Papi, and is about the only such upgrade that would come without giving up starting pitching or lars Anderson.
by Buzzy on May 23, 2009 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
When considering MDC’s value people only need to look at Ramon Ramirez. They are very similar pitchers in talent, age and usefulness. RamRam yielded Coco Crosp for the Royals, so we should not expect anything better than Coco Crisp to come for MDC. He will not bring a cost-controlled, excellent, young player (like AGonz or Upton).
Now, for the record, I think we should give Papi a little more time before pulling the plug. Though with interleague play starting up, that will be hard. My point is that, for MDC, Nick Johnson would be as good a player as we could get.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny/Nick
Nick Johnson been nothing buthurt his entire career….seriously the guy manages to stay healthy long enough to flash a little potential and we want to trade a lights out reliever..yeah ok a second string 1B is worth tradin a component (good bullpen help) that has proven to be key to titles?
by greenmonsta on May 24, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As I said
his injuries have been mostly freak injuries related to fielding (hit in the face with a ball, collision in RF…). In 2006 he was fully healthy, played a full year, and he posted a monster line with a wOBA of 405 (in the Handly Ramirez class). BTW-not that it matters, but he is a good fielder and is 30 years old. I think that is worth the risk given:
a)we need a DH more than a 4th relief picher (especially with Bard, Bowden and Smoltz as pen help).
b)we trade no prospects and get a cheap good hitter back.
by Buzzy on May 25, 2009 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also funny
that on a site where in the past people said that MDC could never be a good late inning option because he craps his pants (nb-I never agreed with this) that he is now “A lights out reliever.”
by Buzzy on May 25, 2009 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, yeah.
I think it was you and I defending MDC two months ago and now we seem to be the ones that want to get rid of him.
by BTLove on May 25, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and a few others
Drugs, Tommy (?)…We all see that MDC is a quality arm out of the pen. But lets be real, as used by the Sox, his value is not anywhere near what people on this thread are implying. Nick Johnson in 2005/2006 has a WAR of 4.6 and 5.3. MDC career WAR is 3.9. Nick Johnson this year alone has a WAR of 1.2, which is very close to MDC’s for all of last year. I understand this accounts for his position too (and he would mostly DH) but still…
by Buzzy on May 26, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bard is still really rough..
Bard is at the stage that MDC was a couple years ago. Lots of potential, but still needs to work on control issues. I rather trade hurler like Bard, no matter his incredible potential than MDC, because MDC is becoming a very good reliever. I guess why I think MDC should go more than a rental, because I remember how wild he was, and how he has the stuff to be MLB closer.
If I had to trade for Johnson, I rather give up Penny or Jones than MDC.
by superferret on May 26, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that is the point
Penny or Jones will not net Johnson. I am not sure what Penny and Jones would net, maybe a big Mac.
by Buzzy on May 26, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he keeps going like he has been
Penny has surely got some value. Pitching like he did last night he could be a 3rd starter for someone who needs it. Plus, we’ve got Buch banging hard on the Fenway clubhouse door begging to be let in, and in a pinch Masterson has shown, I think, that he could fill the 5th spot role if need be.
I’m not suggesting anything though. I wouldn’t trade him right now. I think it’s obvious the depth is in the bullpen, especially with Smoltz on his way in, and we shouldn’t gamble with starting pitching help the way things have gone so far.
MDC’s value will most likely never be higher, but I hope he can keep it up for just another month or two until we put something together centered around him and a couple prospects that will bring in a big name player we may want to keep around, as opposed to a mediocre or risky rental like Johnson. If he can keep it up for another month or two, the jury will have spoken on Papi and we’ll have a better idea if we need to pull the trigger. And, there will be more players to go for then as teams will have a better idea if they are out of contention or want to dump salary, rebuild, are desperate for pitching, etc.
I know it’s frustrating to watch Papi like this when we have the chips to trade, especially considering what we’re used to with the Papi-ManRam era still close in the rearveiw, BUT the front office is thinking about this season and three seasons from now. Right now, we give Papi another month or two, we hope MDC doesn’t come down to Earth too hard, and if we make a move in a month or two it’s for a Red Sox -not a rental.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 26, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
that we need not rush into a trade right now, but I disagree with several things you say. First, I doubt Penny is good trade fodder. First of all, bad teams (like the ones we would like to fleece) look at rate stats like ERA. Penny has actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest, but that will lower him in value. Second, He still is a costly rental to a lot of teams. He is making 5 million. That means only top payroll teams would take him, I suspect. This greatly limits trade possibilities since:
a)most of those teams are decent.
b)most of them don’t have what we want.
A team like the Mets would make a lot of sense. But what do they have for us? Nothing.
Also, why do you characterize Nick Johnson as mediocre (“…mediocre or risky rental like Johnson.”). Risky, yes. Mediocre, absolutely not. The only reason Johnson only makes 5mil is his injury problems. When healthy (05/06 and it appears now) he is worth upwards of 15mil, and has put up numbers in terms of the stats that matter that are surpassed by only a very few hitters in baseball.
by Buzzy on May 26, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
As far as Penny, teams will need pitching. Someone always needs decent starting pitching. Penny however, is not a highly-ranked prospect that could fetch a real bat from a team that’s rebuilding, and getting prospects to rent him out doesn’t address our needs. It’s obvious what our needs are now, if we’re only thinking of this season (and with him, we can) we could trade him to a team that has our opposite problem —a decent bat to spare and a need at starting pitching. Who that will be in two months? I’m sure there’s people on this board who know a lot better than me. I’d say it’s unlikely that we find a deal that works, but he may be of value to someone else moreso than he is to us. But who knows what will pop up.
The idea that there’s a MLB team out there who doesn’t do enough research to know the difference between bad ERA and bad pitching is either giving ourselves too much credit, or other teams’ management not enough. Sure, it’s easy to trash them and come up with examples of bad trades, etc. But really now. I mean… if we can figure it out and see how he’s pitching (if he keeps it up), we’re not such incredible geniuses, and the guys getting paid to do this for a living are not such incredible idiots, that they can’t figure out what kind of pitcher he is at that point.
Would you say the same about Beckett and Lester? Both of them have high ERA at this point, do you think GMs out there who’s undervaluing them based solely on that? If so, we could have got the whole farm for Wakefield two weeks ago.
And I mean Nick Johnson is a mediocre 3-4 lineup guy. He’s a great 2 or maybe a 5, if he’s healthy. We’ve already got plenty of those type guys. The idea, I think, is to find a 4-spot hitter who can mash. An Adam Dunn kinda guy. And in that role, Johnson is mediocre. The three seasons he had 378, 453 and 500 at bats he hit 15, 15 and 23 home runs, respectively. Tek will do that this year. Obviously, Tek won’t match the other stats, but the point I’m trying to make is that Johnson doesn’t scare me like I want the 3-4-spot to scare people. So, mediocre in that role is what I meant.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 26, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like
I end up writing a book because if I don’t explain everything and try to cover my ass it’ll get chewed off. Haha. Sorry.
by Ritzybeanboy on May 26, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
1)Actually, Olney reports today the Sox are looking to dump Penny for prospects, so that is perfectly in line with what I said. He will not return something along the lines of what we need for this year, and that is fine. To be honest, I would take anything for him-he has filled his role and now his time has come to go, if not now then soon.
2)Most teams do look at ERA to a degree, and they should. Your point however is off base, since Lester and Beckett have pitched better than Penny by any metric. My point was that it is not like Penny has been so fanstastic as to wash the shit-stink from the bloated ERA. At 5mil, his is just not so valuable. We should be more realistic and stop overvaluing our assets the way fans of our most hated rival do.
3)Your point about Johnson as a 3-4 guy is wrong. The lineup order means very little. The upgrade of 200-300 OPS point means a lot. Put him in the lineup where you want. Put Bay and Youk 3-4 if you want. Then Johnson, Lowell and Drew if you want (to stagger L/R). Who cares? That lineup would mash 1-7. It hardly matters (and computer simulation studies have shown it) how you order these guys, unless you really do something dumb.
by Buzzy on May 26, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We would all love a guy who can mash, but the next Papi is probably not available. What can a relief ace (like we all think MDC really is) get us in a trade? Probably a good, but not exceptional hitter. Nick Johnson is an example of that (and there are others out there, he is just the rumored guy).
Other guys we could all think about: White Sox hitters (if they fall out of contention) like Thome, Konerko or Dye, Carlos Lee (making way too much, but would Houston pay some of his salary?) Holliday (would take a lot), Giambi (playing better this month), others?
by BTLove on May 26, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some interesting names
for example Holliday (I think) is a superior fielder to Bay and is as taylor-made for Fenway as it gets for a RHB. Could DH Bay…ok I am dreaming, since I don’t want Holliday, pretty sure Bay wants to play the field and I think we should keep him satisfied, etc. But interesting to think about.
Regardless, these speculations are fun to argue about, but I think we would all agree that the best thing that could happen is for Papi to somehow snap out of his funk. If he does not, this is a real headache for this year’s team that goes beyond where MDC plays in the future.
by Buzzy on May 26, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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