Lester regresses to '07 form...
by bottomlinesox on May 20, 2009 4:31 PM EDT
Email
PrintIn 2007, for whatever reason (inexperience, recovering from cancer, etc.) Jon Lester struggled to get through the 6th inning. He admitted later that he was thinking too much and his pace was too slow...the result was a 4-0 record, but with 8 NDs.
In 2008, with a few added pounds of muscle and a full spring training under his belt, Lester pitched with confidence and purpose and the result was a Cy Young caliber season: 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA.
Some would argue that batters simply struggled against Lester due to lack of scouting on the young lefty, but Lester's goal in 2008 was to trust his abilities and pick up the pace. He did... and the it made a world of difference.
In 2008 Lester averaged 5.7 innings per start and made it into the 6th inning just four times in 11 starts (36%). In 2008, he went 6+ in 20 of his 33 starts (60%) and averaged 6.36 IP/GS... enabling him to win 16 games on the season.
For good reason Red Sox Nation expected another, if not better, performance from Lester in 2009, but so far he has looked more like the 2007 version. Though eight starts, Lester has averaged 5.8 innings and has only reached the 6th inning twice... not coincidentally, his two wins in 2009 came from those two games.
Lester spent the spring working on a new pitch to help keep batter on their toes - knowing that he was no longer an "unknown" in the league. Maybe he's trying to hard to mix up his pitches... or maybe the hitters have found a weakness or a tell in his delivery... or maybe he's simply overthinking things again.
Bottom Line: The strikeouts are still there (6.75 per GS) but he's already given up 10 homers (4 shy of his season total for '08 and he fallen into a bad habit of imploding in the 5th or 6th inning... just like he did in 2007.
I watch all the games, but I'm not John Farrell... I'd love to hear what you guys think the problem is... or maybe you don't think there is one. Looking forward to your comments.
Rob - www.bottomlinesox.com
29 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I have posted about this before
His secondaries do not look like 07. He should be more like 08. To wit:
his K rate. K/BB are great (better than 08). His K rate/9 is 10.34, not 6.5 as you posted (that was last year). His BAPIP and HR/FB number really look unlucky. Especially the 18.5 HR/FB. If that comes down to a reasonable 10%, he will be much better off.
These numbers make it look like he has been remarkably unlucky. I do think he is getting frustrated out there, as most of his ERA has been inflated by a small # of bad innings (something like 60% in 4-5 innings). If he can stay focused and keep composure, he should be fine.
Yup.
Except forgot to mention that our terrible play defensively this year has hurt all of our pitchers, including Lester. But poor luck definitely seems to be the biggest culprit.
Interestingly
our entire left side (3b, ss, LF) has been utterly, horrifically putrid defensively. Would effect a LHP more, no? I mean he would see a more RH lineup. Doubt it has any real effect (meaning it likely effects all of our pitchers) but it is curious…
Has Bay been horrific?
I know his UZR isn’t swell, but that’s a weird stat.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Bay has been terrible.
And bad through-out his career. There is little evidence he is any better than Manny. Maybe even worse.
Yes
Tommy-I know you live in YES network territory, but you have seen him play. So if we put aside things like UZR here is my scouting report (tell me if it jibes with what you see):
Positives: moves very well laterally to track down balls. That is, has good lateral range.
Negatives:Extremely tentative moving in on balls. Seems petrified of allowing balls to get behind him. Plays too deep at Fenway. Below average arm with slow release.
Basically allows outs to play into singles by being woefully unagressive in his persuit of anything in front of him. When I said that I actually suspect he is not a defensive upgrade over Manny people yelled at me, but I am sticking to that, and agree with BT.
I haven't seen enough to judge.
I remember a couple pretty good catches, and I don’t recall too many balls that should’ve been caught dropping in. Not saying it hasn’t happened, just that I haven’t seen it.
But I concur that his arm is terrible.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
i like his bombs though
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on May 22, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Ks per start... not per 9
Good stuff Buzzy. My 6.5 number was Ks per starts… not K’s per 9, but whatever.
The point is, he hasn;t been dominant like he was in ’08. Maybe the defense has let hom down… but other than some bad play from Lugo in that Rays game (I was there, yikes) I don;t see where the defense has played a factor.
I’d argue that the long ball has been his biggest problem and that usual comes back to bad location… so the question is: Why is he missing on location?
Bottom Line: I do think he’ll get it together, maybe even tonight, but he hasn’t been the same guys he was it 2008.
by bottomlinesox on May 21, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
it might help if he challenged hitter a bit less, but I think part of the issue with the HRs have also been luck. I mean Ichiro hit 2 HRs off of him, and the guy has even less power than he used to. The one thing I am a wee bit worried about is that his number against lefties have reverted back to what he was before last year. A key to last year was his ability to throw good off-speed stuff to LHBs and get them out. He has been much worse this year in this regard. But most evidence points to what I said:very unlucky BAPIP and HR/FB while posting great K/BB with good velocity on the FB.
Pitching in general can be very variable. The only guys that you know will kick ass every year are Halliday and Santana. This is even more true whan you only look at 1/4th of a season. Lester has had some shit luck (I recall the following as examples-his first game when hs K-zone, even as discussed on DRaysBay, was 1/2 foot smaller than Kazmir’s, and he still struck out 5 of the first 6 until the BS BBs caught up to him; two games where defense sucked behind him at SS and lead to implosion innings…). Basically if you take 4 innings off the board, he looks a lot like last year. The other thing to worry about is his frustration level. He is young, and his comments of late suggest he is really frustrated. If he just keeps doing what he is doing, perhaps with a bit less plate at times, he will be fine.
It could also be, like was much discussed over the offseason, that his huge innings increase last year is taking its toll this year. His stuff seems fine, but fatigue can affect command and consistency. This is from Baseball Prospectus about Lester:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8906
“Like Hamels, Lester may be feeling the effects of a career-high workload (237 innings) and a shorter than usual recovery time. He’s averaging less than six innings per start, and his splits show that he’s been extremely vulnerable after the fourth inning, yielding a .362/.385/.662 line to hitters in the fifth through seventh innings. Looking at it from a slightly different vantage, batters are hitting .338/.348/.646 when facing him for the third time in a game; he’s yielding a homer for every 11 PA in those situations, compared to one every 36.3 in the first two go-rounds”
Joe Haggerty has a very interesting take on Lester’s struggles:
http://hackswithhaggs.com/2009/05/17/lester-is-paying-the-price-now-for-a-brilliant-2008-season.aspx?ref=rss
“The Red Sox should have predicted – and most likely did given their effort to collect as many starting rotation arms as possible this winter – exactly what’s happening to an exasperated Jon Lester thus far this season…
This season’s numbers scream out a 2008 hangover for Lester…Lester’s statistics spell out a pitcher that’s experiencing serious difficulty maintaining the pitch-to-pitch consistency he had for nearly the entire wire-to-wire run in 2008.
Dig deeper and the picture becomes even clearer that Lester is experiencing fatigue-related issues this season.
Once Lester has crossed past the pitch No. 76 threshold in each of his eight starts, his numbers begin to drop precipitously. The big southpaw has a 7.31 ERA and has allowed 27 hits and seven home runs in only 16 innings pitched after he’s crossed over the 75th pitch of an outing this season.
Another potential sign of fatigue is the difficulty that Lester seems to have in bringing his best stuff with him right out of the chute in the first inning. During his first 15 pitches of the game, Lester is getting banged around to the tune of a 15.88 ERA in 5 1/3 innings with seven hits and 10 runs allowed.
From there Lester loosens up and has a 3.85 ERA on pitches 16-75 and looks much more like the bright young left-handed starter that seemingly cranked out quality starts last summer with an almost effortless-looking style.
Lester is having trouble getting loose in the first inning and is really having serious technical difficulties finishing off hitters in the final innings of his starts.”
And here is another article about the dangers of sudden increases in workload:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/fantasy/shandler/2009-05-13-shandler-column_N.htm
I think
this is likely BS. There has never been a serious study showing that the Verducci effect is real. How is Chad Billingsley doing this year? How about Lincecum? It might be true, but I know for a fact that the Sox never believed it, that they monitored Lester and viewed it to be a low risk.
Pitching is variable enough that data on the innings increase taken out of context can make it look true, but someone has to do a real study, which has not been done. If you look at Lester’s numbers, it does not look like he is feeling the effects of anything. Why are the K’s up, for example? Why is he touching 96 in the 5th and 6th? Lets see if all the innings increase talk persists when Lester turns this around.
Great points from both sides
The heavy workload could be effecting him… but Buzzy makes agood point: He’s not showing signs of weakness… just control.
I’ll admit arm weakness can result in bad control, but all the strikeouts make me think that he’s making poor decisions… not throwing meatballs.
Bottom Line: Since his struggles seem to happen most often in the 5th and 6th, I find myself leaning twds the idea that he is overthinking at that point in an effort to keep the batters (who have seen him 2 o3 times at that point) on their toes.
Tonight will be a good test for Lester. My fingers will be crossed…
by bottomlinesox on May 21, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
From Lester's last start:
His stuff is moving, just a lot of variance – could be bad control or electric stuff.
I'm not sure that his command is bad.
His walk rate is almost the same as last year and his K rate is up, like Buzzy said.
It's still early
look at C.C Sabathia. he did horrible to start last year with the Tribe, and he got Cy Young votes with the Brewers. Just give him time, he’s an incredibly talented pitcher
by RedSoxCookie322 on May 20, 2009 9:55 PM EDT reply actions
CC sucks
Okay, he doesn’t suck, but most AL pitchers that move to the NL tend to pitch well. The NL offers you a free pass every nine at-bats… and in CC’s case…most of those guys never saw CC pitch before.
Bottom Line: If CC was so good, why has he been mediocre in his return to the AL with NYY??
Cookie – I realize that your MAIN piont is that it’s still early… and I agree. Let’s hope Lester rides the Big Papi mojo into tonight’s game!
by bottomlinesox on May 21, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you
looked at CCs numbers with the Yankees lately? Look good to me.
Point taken...
I’ll admit C.C. has been much, much better in May than he was in April… my point was just that he has not been the force that he was wil the Brewers… but he dies look like a new man this month and he could finish very strong.
Let’s hope the same thing happenes with Lester.
by bottomlinesox on May 21, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
CC is a notorious slow starter.
He was terrible last year in April too. He won a Cy Young in the AL remember. The guy is legit.
He may be legit but....
that cy young should have gone to Beckett
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Have you criticized Hanley Ramirez on Twitter? Your name may be on his bat!
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
