Sox need to do something big. Like nothing
by Randy Booth on May 18, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
in News
38 comments
After an ugly West Coast trip where the Red Sox went 2-4, some people might be searching for that little red panic button. Thankfully, Theo Epstein is not.
Where are the Red Sox's problem spots? They're pretty easy to spot. The biggest problems are:
- Bad starting pitching. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Brad Penny have ERAs hovering close to 6 or well over. Justin Masterson has a 4.61 ERA as a starter, which is second to Tim Wakefield (4.03).
- Injuries. Jed Lowrie has been out for awhile and Kevin Youkilis has missed a good chunk of time recently. Julio Lugo just came back, Mark Kotsay hasn't seen any time in a Red Sox uniform this year and Daisuke Matsuzaka has "arm fatigue" (but is due back soon).
- David Ortiz. When your No. 3 hitter is batting .208 and hasn't even sniffed a home run in eight months, you're going to have troubles. 'Nuff said.
But you know what? These problems aren't so bad right now.
Everyone is in agreement that Beckett and Lester can't be this bad for the rest of the season. Both are just too good. Penny, while he may have the same ERA until October, isn't even pitching poorly. He's had four quality starts in his seven games as a Red Sox and his ERA has been on the decline for three straight games. Wakefield was a true ace earlier in the season and has come down to earth recently, but we should see similar results the rest of the season.
As far as injuries are concerned, people are getting healthy. Youkilis will be back Wednesday and Matsuzaka should be replacing Masterson in the rotation this week. Who knows about Lowrie, but Lugo and Green, at least offensively, are holding down the fort. Kotsay should be back relatively soon as well.
That brings me to David Ortiz. Big Papi. Cookie Monster. And you know what? I don't know what to tell you, frightened and scared Red Sox fan. I'd love to tell you that David Ortiz is going to come back on Tuesday and start hitting bombs. Start winning games and make a run for the All-Star game. But I can't say that. I'd love to say it, but I can't. I can't say it because I don't think it's true.
Is Ortiz done as a major league hitter? Perhaps. Could he still hit 20 home runs this season? Sure he could, but I hope no one puts money on that in Vegas. Right now Ortiz is a crapshoot. It's that simple. He could come back and mash or he could come back and dip below the Mendoza Line. Either is as likely to happen.
Other than perhaps juggling the lineup around a little bit, the Red Sox don't need to do anything. They shouldn't make a trade for a shortstop and calling up a pitcher like Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden might be a tad overboard right now.
What the Sox have to do is wait. Wait for Beckett and Lester to turn it around. Wait for everyone to be healthy. Wait -- and see -- how Ortiz rebounds.
It's time to sit back and wait. It's the smartest thing the Red Sox can do at the moment. In the meantime, let's hope we win some more games.
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Nice post, Randy
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 18, 2009 7:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Randy, what are your thoughts regarding keeping Ortiz in the 3 spot? Is this just for his ego, to avoid humiliating him? He’s kinda doing that to himself. Wouldn’t moving him down in the order be more appropriate given his performance, and take some pressure off him while still getting him the playing time he’ll need if he’s ever to come around? Keeping a .208 hitter at #3 just makes no sense to me. And leaving him in a position where he alone can leave 12 men on base in a single losing game can only further shake his confidence, add to his frustration and harm his mental state, and I have to believe his mental state is playing a significant role in his collapse at the plate.
by nhsoxfan on May 18, 2009 7:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You can leave
12 men on base any where in the lineup. Seriously, don’t people on this site know yet that, say, switching Lowell and Papi’s spots (or any 2 players) results in a minimal # of total runs? If you want to make a good argument, argue to optimize the lineup 1-9. No team does it. If we did it it would not make a huge difference (because our lineup is, say 70% optimized as it is) but, sure, why not.
Papi himself is the problem right now, and no place that he hist in the lineup is going to make much of a difference. And, while we are at it, has anyone noticed that Lowell grounded into 2 more DPs yesterday? That is 11 in 160 PAs. Amazing.
by Buzzy on May 18, 2009 8:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Then all the "switch Ells and Drew in the lineup" chatter?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 18, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would also be a huge change if Ells regresses.
Although with JD’s production in the 3 hole, I’d like to put him there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buzzy… I wasn’t making an argument, I was asking for Randy’s thoughts that’s all. I think there is, on average, more pressure on a hitter at #3 than farther down in the line up. I don’t think added pressure is helping Ortiz right now, that is if this is a mental thing he’s going through. I happen to think position in a line up is significant and I’m probably not alone. If the higher BAs or on base percentages are stacked higher in the order as they often are, aren’t the chances of leaving men in scoring position increased when batting in the mid-high part of the order? That is, if the batters who precede you are more likely to get on base, the opportunity to leave men on base is greater than if the batters that precede you don’t get on base as often. This is a question… not an argument.
by nhsoxfan on May 18, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Sure. But really, it doesn’t make a difference. I suspect the problem with Papi is not mental, but age/physical. If this can be trusted:
http://www.boston.com/interactive/graphics/20090515_ortiz/
Papi has hit a mere 2 balls 350+ feet. If he is done he is done, and we have a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled. If it is mental, I don’t think hitting 7th makes much of a difference. I mean, Lowell was hitting 7th and saw a ton of guys on base (was leading in GIDP and RBI for a while-tells you he has had the runners on in front of him).
by Buzzy on May 18, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7th vs. 3rd.
It is interesting that most people have seemed to pick 7th as a way to hide Ortiz in the lineup.
Our 7th hitter will have Youk, Bay, Drew ahead of him. Our 3rd hitter will have Ellsbury and Pedroia. Youk, Bay and Drew have an average 441 OBP. Ellsbury and Pedroia have an average 371. The way our lineup is constructed, the 3 spot will likely see fewer guys on base ahead of him than the 7th.
by Buzzy on May 18, 2009 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 18, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that Ellsbury drags down the average
Put Drew first, Pedroia second, and drop Ellsbury to the bottom of the order until he learns to take a walk, and Youk, Bay, and Lowell can hit 3-4-5. If Papi hits sixth, then Tek, then Lugo and Ellsbury, Papi will get opportunities to break out of his slump while not sucking up extra ABs at the third spot in the order with runners on base.
by RSNexile on May 18, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I said above, one coulde do a better job optimizing the whole lineup, and this would be one way. It will not get done with a simple switch.
by Buzzy on May 18, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ells has a .360 OBP in May.
Though the high OBP is mostly driven by a high BA of .333. But maybe he’s coming around.
by BTLove on May 18, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only 1 Sox player with 20 AB or more in May has fewer walks that Ellsbury
Rocco Baldelli. By the way, Papi has an OBP of .368 in May.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 18, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Leadoff hitters don’t necessarily have to walk a lot. We just care that they get on base. If Ells can hit .330 and get on base at .360, I would be fine with that. Who knows if he can do that, but anyway, he has been good enough for me the last few weeks.
by BTLove on May 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happens
to his OBP when he is hitting .280 again?
by drabidea on May 18, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the problem
Ellsbury isn’t patient and pitchers are challenging him because he has no power. The way he hits now the only way he can get on-base at a good clip is to have a high BA, as BT noted.
I just don’t see Ellsbury as a .330 AVG hitter over the course of a full season. His pitch recognition isn’t great and his swing is kind of long. He has to shorten his swing, especially on inside pitches, if he is going to be a good hitter. Hopefully, he’ll make the necessary adjustments.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 18, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
His OBP will drop to under .300 and become a momentum sucker.
by drabidea on May 18, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats a little dramatic.
As a rookie he had a .336 OBP so I doubt he’ll drop 40 points below that.
I think maybe we all should just change our expectations for the guy. Most of us did not want him hitting leadoff to start the year, but the Sox clearly think he’s suited for it. At some point if he doesn’t put together a good run of .360 OBP, they just have to accept that he might be a bottom of the order hitter. For a great-fielding CF’er, that is fine.
by BTLove on May 18, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh.
He’s getting worse in field, or so it appears. He’s getting too tentative after making all those diving attempts. He doesn’t want to get hurt or make a dumb mistake and let the ball get way behind him, where he can’t get the ball back to the infield (noodle = arm).
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously?
wow, are we getting that crazy about this young kid? Remember who played CF before Ells and CC…J. Damon who couldn’t throw out my grandmother with her walker.
by SoxAcumen on May 18, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the stats:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF#fielding
His arm appears to have gotten worse (small sample size possibly), and his fielding is actually a tiny bit better than last year (again, small sample size). Oddly, his 2007 UZR/150 was horrible.
And he was both great in LF and good in RF in 2008 – even weirder.
Comparing him to our previous CF(s), Coco and Damon, last season, Damon had the best arm, then Ells, then Coco. They ranked Ells, Damon, then Coco in UZR/150.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 19, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you guys can “stat geek” the hell out of Ellsbury, but he is or was on a 9 game hitting streak and seems to be doing fine in CF.
I got railed by people when I said he was a starting CF in the AL and a positive in the Red Sox lineup and still with a 330 avg you guys complain.
He is on his 2nd year, 1st year without any competition for his position…its like Pedroia rookie season all over again. Maybe patience, let the kid learn the pitchers find his comfort zone and stop panicking everytime he gets an out.
Relax, Ellsbury taking walks is not the problem with the Red Sox lineup.
by SoxAcumen on May 18, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of what you said is right.
Except the last bit – yeah, it is. Either he needs to keep up this pace of hitting, or he’s going to have to take a lot more walks to keep getting on base enough.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 19, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m leaving the country in a couple hours on business and won’t be back for about 10 days. When I come back, I really hope I don’t see Papi still hitting .200 with no HR from the third spot in the lineup.
If it’s a serious mental thing, like the press has been speculating, then maybe he needs to take a couple weeks. If it’s a physical thing, then maybe he needs to take a couple weeks. If it’s just a slump he can’t shake, he shouldn’t be hitting third.
by RSNexile on May 18, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't make your name literal Exile.
Have fun – we’ll hold down the fort.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sit back and wait??
Is that or when is that possibly like Nero fiddling while Rome burned??
I am for waiting a bit for the return of Youk and to see if the little rest helped Ortiz, but if the lack of hitting with constant SS errors costs too many more games, then I think waiting beyond Youk’s return is foolish. The SS errors are not excusable anyway at this level, nor is (IMO) keeping a tiring starter in too long with the great bullpen we now have! Such misjudgements just compound the other hitting problems.
by NG on May 19, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
In the toughest division in baseball we don’t have the luxury of teams in other divisions. One or two wins will probably be the only difference between playoffs and no playoffs.
by drabidea on May 19, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
The question you have to ask yourself is this: Are the problems on the team structural (i.e. is this team poorly constructed). For the most part, you have to say they aren’t.
Aside from catcher, where there were few options for upgrading, the Sox came into this season above average-to-strong at every position. The Sox have had some injuries; Lowrie, Youk, and Dice-K being the major ones. They have also had a few players who aren’t performing: Beckett, Lester, and Papi. The Sox need two of those players to revert to form or they’re in trouble.
Frontline starters are hard to find and expensive to acquire. The Sox have pitching depth, but they aren’t going far without strong veteran starters at the top of the rotation. As for Papi, his early season funk is a mystery. However, a DH is probably the easiest hole to plug. There are a lot of good hitting, bad fielding.
The one thing you don’t want to do is mortgage your team’s future to plug perceived holes in May. The Sox haven’t played a quarter of the season yet. They’ll wait and see. It’s the prudent thing to do. If they miss the playoffs this year, they’ll do that. What they won’t do is make a move that marginally increases their chances of making the playoffs this year, but hurts their chances in 2010 or 2011. Bad organizations (and most fans) live in the moment. Things may look very different in a few weeks.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 19, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
NG, you know how you are constantly ranting about old guys not being able to perform? You do realize forcing people to perform more than they are comfortable with causes them to age faster, right?
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 19, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Bullpen strategy from the man who once advocated using a different pitcher each inning for each game.
by Buzzy on May 19, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well until that theory of mine is formally and truthfully tried an disproved,
it may yet be the best thing since sliced bread!
Anyway, using a good (or even bad for that matter) bullpen to relieve a tired starter, who is having his lights knocked out, is surely not experimental treatment in baseball now is it!
by NG on May 19, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NG
you don’t want your bullpen to pitch more than 1/3 of your team’s total innings. Our starters have to take the game a bit deeper. That is what will keep our pen strong and effective for the season. You can use a good reliever to replace a tired starter, but if you do it too much, then it is your bullpen that is tired. In the case that got you riled up, Beckett was actually stronger in innings 5,6 and 7 than he had been for the whole game, and the pen was used a lot in the past games (12 innings +Lester’s bad start). You normally will not have Beckett go to 120 pitches, but in that case it was the right thing to do.
by Buzzy on May 19, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactimundo, Potsie!
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 19, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing I didn't see
is the fix for problem #3.
Agreed. Starting pitching is bound to get better, because as previously stated and most likely generally agreed, they’re too good to stay this bad. And in the off chance we absolutely need to do it, Bucholtz is in Pawtucket waiting for another shot.
Injuries are injuries. We’ve got guys coming back soon and all we can do now is hope the injuries don’t nag and that we get a good healthy stretch. Anybody else wish we had Alex Cora right now to play some SS?
But, what do we do if Papi IS done and he can’t come back from this? I haven’t given up on him completely yet, and I do agree that management should give him some more time, get him some therapy (for his mental issues kidding!), move him around in the order —in short, try everything- before throwing in the towel on him. BUT, do we pick someone up, or keep plugging away and letting Bay, Drew and Youk be the middle of the order? I think we’d have to add a big power bat unless the starting pitching gets very drastically better and starts winning us games, but who? How?
by Ritzybeanboy on May 19, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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