A Simple Line-up Comparison: Sox, Yanks, Rays
by Drugs Delaney on May 15, 2009 7:28 PM EDT
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The Red Sox are currently second in the AL in runs and team OPS. They've done this despite a poor lead-off hitter and no production from the #3 spot in their batting order (the #8 spot is a black hole too).
Let's take a moment and back away from bashing David Ortiz, Julio Lugo, or (insert player's name). All teams have holes. I find it hard to believe that one line-up spot or player can drag a whole team down.
Here's a comparison of the Sox, MFY, and Rays based on how each spot in their line-up has done to date. By line-up spot, I am looking at the batting order position and not the player. In most cases more than one player has hit in a particular spot. For example, four players have manned the cleanup spot for the Sox: Youkilis (89 AB), Bay (37 AB), Lowell (3 AB), and Bailey (3 AB). I am counting the combined hitting totals of those four players when hitting fourth and not each player's individual stats. The stats are listed by AVG/OBP/SLG.
Red Sox Yankees Rays
#1 .294/.329/.356 .267/.335/.407 .211/.313/.289
#2 .315/.407/.413 .318/.382/.601 .336/.400/.461
#3 .215/.321/.313 .206/.342/.466 .327/.382/.660
#4 .333/.439/.644 .237/.329/.407 .250/.358/.610
#5 .294/.374/.493 .255/.303/.461 .259/.346/.333
#6 .289/.431/.579 .298/.399/.500 .254/.338/.448
#7 .254/.329/.470 .328/.421/.576 .232/.284/.362
#8 .208/.313/.360 .238/.298/.400 .308/.347/.446
#9 .295/.345/.462 .280/.321/.352 .287/.331/.426
The Rays have the best 2-3-4 combination. The MFY are getting almost nothing from the 3-4-5 spots in their line-up. Yet the MFY are scoring at a slightly better rate than the Rays: 5.41 runs per game v. 5.25 runs per game. The Sox are averaging 5.63 runs per game.
It seems to me that order of the hitters means less than the aggregate. While the #3 and #8 spots are pretty dead on the Sox (none of the three teams listed has a good lead-off hitter), the Sox other six hitting spots are better than the top six on the Rays or MFY.
Food for thought?
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Interesting method
I’m just not sure how important it is.
When it comes down to it, the comparisons sort of have to be between the individual players. The Sox have played plenty banged up. Either the 3 or 4 spot on the Yanks is supposed to represent A-Rod, for Chrissake. It just seems to me that ignoring these sort of things is invalidating the significance of the numbers.
Except for the 3 spot on the Red Sox. But we have 3-4 other fan posts about that.
by USG on May 15, 2009 7:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter
Aggregate team OPS is a better determining factor. One would assume Teixeira and Bitch Tits will hit better. However, right now, Johnny Damon is on pace for 44 HR 126 RBI .992 OPS. Melky Cabrera has an OPS of .905 (career .715). Robinson Cano is on pace for career highs in HR, RBI, and OPS. And Nick Swisher’s OPS is .939, significantly higher than his career OPS of .812. When Teix and Slappy start hitting, Judas, Melky, Cano, and Swisher might cool off.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 16, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though one thing it does do...
Is show the pointlessness of Ells leading off. Compare #1 and #9. I know a fair bit of that is from Nick-the-fluke-Green, but still.
by USG on May 15, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Past isn't always prologue.
That’s both good and bad. Ortiz should improve, if only because he’s been at an almost unsustainable level of bad. But Youk, Bay and Pedroia are all likely to come down from Olympus (once Youk returns from the DL, that is). And Nick Green will either regress to the mean or win the starting SS job.
If our offense declines and Ortiz still doesn’t improve, I don’t think we’d be #2 in runs scored for much longer.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on May 15, 2009 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good post
illustrate the main point-a hole is a hole…
by Buzzy on May 15, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
Don’t bother putting the Blue Jays in there. It’s not like they’re leading the division or anything.
by Ryan H on May 15, 2009 9:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most people on here have assumed that they are a product of a weak schedule so far.
Whether or not that’s true, you could prove with a good post.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 16, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once the Jays win a series against the Sox, Yanks or Rays, we will not include them.
by BTLove on May 16, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess we will include them at point. You know what I mean.
by BTLove on May 16, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that but...
It’s hitting that’s being compared, not pitching. Jays pitchers have faced easy offenses, but the Jays have faced better pitching than the AL East has to offer. The Yanks best ERA is 3.70, and the bullpen has horrible numbers. The Sox’s best ERA is 4.07. The Rays have only 2 effective starters and 3 effective relievers. It’s not like Jays hitters would have done worse against AL East teams.
Let’s keep in mind that the Jays have an entire pitching rotation on the DL. Where would Boston be if Lester, Penny, Wakefield, Masterson and Papelbon went down? That’s the situation the Jays have been in for the first two months, and they’re 25-14. Are they a product of an easy schedule? Sure…but at this point, it’s ridiculous that a comparison of the “top” AL East teams doesn’t include the team that’s currently leading it by 2.5 games.
by Ryan H on May 16, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great points.
Maybe we can get Drugs to edit the post to include the Jays. The O’s prolly should be in here too with their offense.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 16, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could
Then again, I never said this was a comparison of the “top” AL teams, as Ryan H suggests. Sure, the Blue Jays are the best team in the AL East right now. I never said otherswise, nor did I intend to offend Blue Jays fans by excluding their team from my comparison. I was reacting to the anti-Papi (and other player) sentiment by Red Sox fans on this site by showing the holes on the two teams most Red Sox fans are worried about. Therefore, the comparison is Red Sox-centric—which is what you’d expect on a Sox site.
If I were to talk about the “top” offensive teams right now, I would have to include the Indians and Rangers as well. But I didn’t intend my comparison to be comprehensive.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 16, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough. Hopefully after this upcoming series we can convince a few more Sox fans to be worried about the Jays ; )
by Ryan H on May 16, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DO YOU REALLY KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT???
YOU SAID""""I could Then again, I never said this was a comparison of the "top" AL teams""""""well what do you expect normal people to expect that you only picked your comparison in the east division………….DAHHHHHHH!!!!.I guess you thought you were writing for 5th graders but I think they are probably more intelligent then you…….if you were making comparisons ……..make it of all the 2nd place teams in the league if you are trying to show PARTIALITY!!!………BUT YOUR A BEANER WHATS ARE WE TO EXPECT…………NOT MORE BUT MUCH LESS!!
by abluejaysinceexhibitionstadium on May 17, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Parody?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 18, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hoped so.
But he repeated it below. And it was his first words on OTM.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Where would the sox be if.."
Beckett and Lester had been bad and Dice-K had been hurt. Oh wait, that actually happened. So our top 3 starters have been either ineffective or hurt so far this year. Masterson has almost a 6.00 ERA. So “where would the Sox be if Lester, Penny, Masterson and Papelbon went down?” probably the exact same place.
Also, you have to realize that the AL East has high ERA’s because of the good offenses. The Sox, Yanks and Rays have played each other enough times already to affect each others’ numbers. You cannot separate the two. The Jays have played “good pitching” that only looks good because it has mostly pitched against terrible offenses (i.e. not AL East offensees.).
My point: the Jays might be good, but they have to prove it first.
by BTLove on May 17, 2009 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol, you’re not allowed to use Beckett and Lester being bad as a comparison to being injured. If they’re playing bad, they’re playing bad – they’re not injured. The Jays have an ENTIRE rotation, and a good one at that, on the DL. The only reason they’ve survived is because they have some great kids in the minors. The Sox would be sinking if they were in the same situation.
The rest of your points are valid. They do have to prove it. They got embarrassed with the sweep by the bosox. Granted, you faced the worst of our rotation and we faced your ace and two fireballers. However, that doesn’t excuse the Jays disappearing act on offense (although some of that was bad luck…11 hits and…1 run!? That’s really bad luck).
All things aside, the Jays failed miserably in proving they can play with the bigs. I know they can (they were .500 last year against Bosox and Yanks last year with a worse team) but they certainly didn’t prove it there. Very frustrating as a Jays fan.
Also, I apologize for that dude, if indeed he is a Jays fan. He speaks for nobody.
by Ryan H on May 22, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We would have been fine with a few injuries. We would use Clay Bucholz (1.6 ERA in 39 innings in AAA with 42 K’s and 12 BB’s) or Michael Bowden (42 IP in AAA with .86ERA). Also, if Beckett, Lester and/or Penny had been hurt, it would not have been hard to replace their production: they have put up ERA’s of 5.85, 5.91 and 6.01 so far on the year. If those guys had been hurt, its hard to think we would have had trouble replacing that production. (especially with 2 major league ready, highly regarded guys in the minors) The point is that injuries to our staff could not have resulted in much worse production.
by BTLove on May 23, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NICE POST.............nice to see someone else who reads
noticed that the blue jays are in first place…………..and you know after this series even after they beat the bosox the BEANERS will have another excuse why they LOST THE SERIES……you know ive been reading these post for a few weeks ………and I think its hard for boston fans to realize there are other teams out there…….and they seem to FORGET IT TOOK THEM ### 84 ###YEARS TO win a pennant ……….and they werent BACK TO BACK pennants……….like the BLUE JAYS won in 92/93……AFTER ABOUT 20 YEARS…EHHH!…..under CITO GASTON…
by abluejaysinceexhibitionstadium on May 17, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the hell man?
I think you’re a MFY fan trying to feign being a Jays fan – none of the guys at BluebirdBanter are this weird.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 17, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…AFTER ABOUT 20 YEARS…EHHH!…..under CITO GASTON…[empahsis added]
Did he take a shit while typing or was that an aneurysm?
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on May 18, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both. At the same time.
While also getting punched by fate for being a troll.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have been accused of being both simple-minded and wrong-headed...
…but I would think that it would matter, because you would want the better hitters (the 1-2-3) to get the most plate appearances. I think that hot starts by Pedroia, Bay and Youk might mask the problem, but I don’t instinctually concur that a hole is a hole. Or perhaps I’m just a-hole…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on May 15, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
An example
The 2003 Red Sox scored 961 runs, the second-most in Red Sox history. The three worst hitters in that year’s line-up in terms of OBP (and 2 of the worst in OPS) were the top three hitters in the line-up: Johnny Damon, Todd Walker, and Nomar Garciaparra. Manny was tops in OPS. Trot Nixon was second, but he usally hit 7th or 8th.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 16, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll never know
What we do know, however, is that since 1951 only six teams have scored more runs in a season (the 1996 Colorado Rockies tied the 2003 Red Sox with 961 runs). These are the teams that scored more runs:
1999 Cleveland Indians – 1,009
1996 Seattle Mariners – 993
2000 Chicago White Sox – 978
2000 Colorado Rockies – 968
2007 New York Yankees – 968
1998 New York Yankees – 965
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right that it does matter.
As Gnick posted in another thread, the difference between our optimal lineup and worst is 120 runs per season (given that everyone hits as they have this year). So the difference between someone hitting in one place and another for a short period will probably not be significant.
by BTLove on May 16, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd beg to differ that none of the three teams have a good leadoff hitter.
Upton’s had a bad start, but he’s on his way back.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 16, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nice post
not quite sure what to make out of it yet…but interesting
- slot looks very strong. hopefully it stays a bit longer like that.
i even can’t complain about Lugo right now (offensively).
by OilCanBoyd on May 16, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
QUICK UPDATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BEANER BOSOX!!!!! LOSERS AGAIN!!!!…..AGAINST SEATTLE………….3 TO 2…….looking good!……………………NOW LETS HEAR THE EXCUSES ! ! !
by abluejaysinceexhibitionstadium on May 17, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you know what “beaner” means? Its a racial slur for a Mexican person. Please stop using it.
by BTLove on May 17, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re:
Dude, stop posting this garbage, you are embarrassing us sane Jays fans. The season is only 1/4 over, it is still early. The Jays DO have to prove themselves against the East, most importantly because by the end of the year they will have played these teams the most. That said, games against the West and Central DO count and these wins are just as important as any other, so ‘taking advantage’ is great. Although, we don’t really know at this point whether they ARE taking advantage because teams like Detroit, Chicago, LA might be just as good as the Rays and Yanks, we won’t know for a while yet.
Since Cito Gaston took over last season the Jays have the best record in the AL and they played quite a few games against East teams during the stretch. Hopefully they can keep that going and get to 15+ games over .500 by June 1. By that time 3 of our injured starting pitchers should be back (Romero, Janssen, Litsch) which gives us a lot of depth, more than any other team in the division in my opinion.
That all said, the Sox are the favourites in the East and are still the best team in the entire AL. The only way the Jays can take that from them is by making the playoffs.
by cnagy77 on May 18, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good to see a Jays fan address the actual argument.
I think you are right about almost everything except that the Jays are not the deepest pitching team in the division. The Sox will have 8 major league caliber starters in a few weeks. Most of whom would be the number 2 starter on the Jays.
by BTLove on May 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm... where do you put the cutoff at BT?
Beckett – probably
Lester – probably
Dice-K – on his good days
Wake – on his EXTREMELY good days
Penny – a 3 or 4 on most other staffs
Smoltz – we’ll wait and see
Buch – depends on his ability to adjust this time around
Bowden – not enough big league time, but most likely able to crack their current rotation
Masterson – shouldn’t be a starter
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beckett, Lester and Dice-K are definitely #2’s on Toronto. Smoltz probably will be. And I’m pretty high on Buch right now so lets throw him in there too. So maybe not most, but half. Either way, we are better.
by BTLove on May 19, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the moment Beckett, Lester and Matsusaka are not no.2s. Beckett seems to be having one of his off years and Lester and Dice-K are suffering from fatigue. I agree that in a playoff series anyone would take those three than any three Jays pitchers other than Halladay, but who knows if these guys will turn it around this season? It’s not a guarantee. Regardless, my point was about depth not necessarily which team has the best top 5 when everyone is healthy and effective (I’ll concede that to the Sox for now). Depth wise however, at the moment, the Jays have the following who have all showed they are MLB quality starters:
Halladay, McGowan, Marcum, Litsch, Romero, Tallet, Cecil, Ray, Richmond and Janssen. That’s 10 pitchers that have all shown they can get guys out. Are they all going to be top 2 starters for the next 10 years? Probably not. But having depth like, with maybe all 10 getting starts throughout the season, keep guys fresh and hungry and it may just work out for the Jays.
Not trying to start an argument, just think there’s a touch of homerism going on here, although it is a Sox page so that’s fair.
by cnagy77 on May 19, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our guys:
Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz, Masterson, Bucholz, Bowden. That is 9 guys who will all be available in the next few weeks.
In terms of Beckett and Lester, their peripherals are mostly there. They have both been horribly unlucky. See the, “What is wrong with Josh Beckett” thread for more on that.
by BTLove on May 19, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you one of the Kids in the Hall?
If so, very funny.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on May 18, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
The garbage I was referring to was from ‘abluejaysince…’ not the article writer.
by cnagy77 on May 18, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Noted.
Most people have issues actually clicking the reply button, not clicking it when they didn’t mean to – plus your reply only made sense if it was talking about the troll.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True about the Blue Jays starting pitching – but Casey Jansen and Jesse Litsch are ready to come back – there’s just nowhere for them with all thee rookies pitching well right now – once one or two falters they’ll bring those two back into the rotation and either shuffle the pen or send’em back to Vegas. Plus Shaun Marcum is expected back mid summer – he’s our #2 guy – and word is we may even get Dustin McGowan back before the season ends.
I agree they are unproven – but Tampa only showed up last year and now they’re a top team – the Jays were finishing third behind the MFY and the Sox for years before that – and besides – if you go back to when Cito took over as Manager last year the Jays are the best team in baseball record-wise.
Do not underestimate the Cito Gaston factor – he won two World Series with the Jay for a reason….the question is why did nobody hire him for so long?
by mod_max on May 18, 2009 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he didn't want to manage until last season?
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 18, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cito
He has wanted to manage all along, but never got a position. He was up for the ChiSox job, but it went to Ozzie instead. I can’t think of 2 more polar opposites than those 2.
He has said that he got tired of interviewing for jobs and then not being considered. He started feeling like teams were interviewing him just so thay could say they considered someone of color.
Obviously we are thrilled to have him back in Toronto, and i would think (hope) there are a few clubs kicking themselves for not snatching him up when they had a chance.
by upstate jay fan on May 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like any good, polite Canadian....
I, too, apoligize for the rantings of my fellow jay fan up above. We are getting a litle tired of the “haven’t played the east yet” arguments, but i am sure after the next few series we will start getting the respect we deserve.
BTW, i still think you guys have a great shot at the wild card….
by upstate jay fan on May 19, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, I guess.
It’d be awesome to have some of y’all on here for the Gamethreads – or we could click over to BluebirdBanter, if y’all will have us.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 19, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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