O Starters Where Art Thou?
by 0157H7 on May 11, 2009 10:01 PM EDT
52 comments
Recently a certain Red Sox hurler has come under scrutiny, and I'm not talking about the guy whose DFA announcement caused birds to sing and lepers to dance Javier Lopez. No, the man under fire is Josh Beckett, two-time playoff hero, 2007 Cy Young runner up, and "on paper" Sox ace. I'm with those who are worried about Beckett. I'm particularly bothered by his high walk totals (4.4 BB / 9 IP, vs. 1.8 in 2007 and 2008). But Josh is just the tip of the iceberg that's threatening to sink HMS Soxtanic.
One quick and dirty way to look at Sox pitching is value over replacement player, or VORP. Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, the rankings for Sox pitchers tell paint an ugly, if interesting, picture:
- Tim Wakefield: 14.9 VORP
- Ramon Ramirez: 10.5
- Manny Delcarmen: 8.5
- Jonathan Papelbon: 7.9
- Hideki Okajima: 5.6
- Justin Masterson: 3.6
- Takashi Saito: 2.5
- Michael Bowden: 1.4
- Jon Lester: 0.5
- Jonathan Van Every: 0.5
- Hunter Jones: -0.8
- Josh Beckett: -0.8
- Daisuke Matsuzaka: -4.4
- Javier "He Who Shall Not be Mourned" Lopez: -4.5
- Brad "Bad" Penny: -5.5
When Wakefield is the only starting pitcher with any semblance of worth (he's actually off to a great start), you know the team is in trouble. Not only is Beckett scuffling, but so is Jon Lester, the de facto ace last year. Daisuke wasn't great in the two games he pitched before landing on the DL, Masterson isn't turning any heads (as a starter, 5.48 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 2.11 K/BB ratio), and the less said about Brad Penny, the better.
The Red Sox are 20-12, and just two games behind Toronto, entirely because of Wakefield, great offense (2nd in runs scored), and the phenomenal work by the bullpen. If not for heroic work by Ramon Ramirez (thx Coco), Manny Delcarmen, Papelbon, and Okajima, the Sox would probably be in 4th place and below .500.
One reason that the starting pitching has been so overwhelmingly putrid is defense. The team has a defensive efficiency rate of .670, which is astoundingly bad: 12th in the league, 27th in the game. [Insert Lugo ad hominem here.]
It's still early, so we can weather the starting pitching doldrums a while longer. But if this keeps up, we'll need Change. We'll need Hope. We'll need Clay Buchholz, possibly garnished with a side of Michael Bowden. Both of those guys are tearing up minor league pitching, and Triple A can only hold them for so long. Buchholz in Pawtucket has a 1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. Bowden is just as good: 1.01 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 0 HR in 26.2 innings.
Meanwhile, John Smoltz is rehabbing, as is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Either of them could restore some semblance of order to our starting pitching. Even Junichi Tazawa could become an option. There's no question that the Red Sox have depth; all the questions concerns its quality - are we good enough to compete? That, like the mischievous gyroball, remains to be seen.
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sometimes, sitting put is the thing to do
The Sox are not going to find pitchers out there who are as good as Lester and Beckett should be. So it’s either those two or nobody.
Dice-K will be fine when he gets his arm strength back.
by RickD on May 11, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If defense is so bad,
then how the heck can you not mention doing something about the defense in your post?? Getting rid of Lugo’s limited range, tentative efforts, and horrid glove might do a lot for defense and the resultant momentum improvement that that brings! Hah!
BTW, I am going to Seattle this weekend and have tickets to all three Sox-Mariners games. For my mental health, will someone tell managment to please, please, please NOT PLAY Lugo as a starter!
by NG on May 12, 2009 7:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The reason I didn't suggest ways to improve defense is that
it’s not actually as simple as ditching Lugo. If Lugo doesn’t start, that puts Nick Green in there, who hasn’t been superb either. With Pedroia hurting, we’re likely to see Green at 2B tonight. Jason Bay is carrying the team right now, so benching him to put, say, Van Every,* would be disastrous. Youk will come back and improve the defense at 1B, so that’ll help.
Part of the issue on defense is that it’s not as simple as we like to think – it’s not just about reputations. Players can have good and bad years defensively, and the advanced stats capture this.
*Everyman is an option for every problem.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on May 12, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, it's Lugo.
Poisons can manifest themselves all over the place/body, but the real culprit is still the initial poison.
by NG on May 12, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love that E.Coli uses perfectly rational arguments to deal with NG.
And NG responds with an overly-simplistic analogy that doesn’t really help his case.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Youk, Bailey isn’t too good at first. He seems like a stone with a mit on his hand.
by Randy Booth on May 12, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's still young.
Most of his mistakes (like beaning Burrell in the head) were the result of not having learned the position to the extent of Youk.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youk is actually 4 months younger than Bailey
Both are 30.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 12, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Youk's obviously a better 1B, technique-wise.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because Youk is a much better player
Bailey is a career minor leaguer for a reason.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 12, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Didn’t Bailey play OF for most of his minors career? I’d look it up, but I’m trying to catch up on all the comments.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that.
Stupid mental block.
SoxProspects’ profile says he plays 1B and corner OF – http://www.soxprospects.com/players/bailey-jeff.htm
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 13, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring the tranquilizer.
Fix the problem yourself.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem this season has been the big inning
And most of those times, the problem has been a combination of bad defense and momentary lapses in command. If you can fix one problem or the other, then the other will start to get taken care of as well.
Also, change will come—-Penny and Masterson will not be in the rotation for an extended period of time. Masterson should move back to the bullpen (which is clearly where he belongs, at least for the time being), and Penny will likely be the one to ride the pine when Smoltz is available.
Lester and Beckett will have to find a way to improve their control. Maybe Wake can teach them the knuckleball.
by lone1c on May 12, 2009 8:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No No NO
Wake must share with them the secret location of the Fountain of Youth!
by NG on May 12, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you think a knuckleball is?
It has rejuvenating powers. Removes wrinkles and laugh lines, too. That’s why knuckleball pitchers can go until they’re in their late forties.
by lone1c on May 12, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few more comments like that and I win, NG.
Sounds like you’re coming over to the dark side. Muhahaha…
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Buch/Bowden could take over for Penny.
And the last line is so brilliantly insane that I will make it my sig once school is over.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Things will turn around
Clearly health-wise/velocity wise both Beckett and Lester seem fine. The performance so far by our 1-3 has been very, very poor, but it will not continue. Look at Lester-more than half his earned runs have come in a grand total of 3 different innings! He has a completely rediculous 17%HR/FB ratio which cannot continue, and has contributed to his alarming 8 HR allowed. His BAPIP is near 400, which will not continue. He is still geting alot of ground balls, but not as many as last year. Our D has really hurt him so far.
Last year, Dice-K was very lucky when looking at outcome vs numbers. Lester is a very good pitcher, but also was due for some regression. If Dice-K is healthy, our 1-3 should be better then they have by a lot, but not as good as last year.
by Buzzy on May 12, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
People keep asking: what’s wrong with Jon Lester? and the answer is: nothing. As you say, he has been extremely unlucky. His ERA is 3 runs higher than last year, but his FIP is only about a run worse. His movement and velocity seem fine. So basically, I’m not worried.
The other thing we should mention though, is that he was pitching a little over his head last yea, especially in the second half. So we shouldn’t expect a 3.00 ERA or anything, but I think a little less than 4.00 from here on out is a solid expectation.
by BTLove on May 12, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure it's fair to say he was pitching over his head
when we don’t really know his ceiling or floor. He’s had ONE (1) full season in the bigs (last year), and he’s only pitched around 390 innings in four years. Who’s to say that last year’s isn’t the real Lester?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on May 12, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya'know, this kid's luck sucks.
He gets called up to the Majors, performs awesome, then gets diagnosed with lymphoma. He recovers, returns to the majors within a year-ish of leaving, pitch decently until the WS, when he wins Game 4 for the clinch. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for that, and becomes one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. Now he’s going through the gauntlet of bad luck, and it seems like people almost suspect that the cancer’s back or something.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant that his results were better than his performance. He out-pitched his peripherals. He was lucky last year. His peripherals are actually better this year. I think he has a chance of improving, but I’m not sure his results will ever be much better than last year.
by BTLove on May 13, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not worried -- yet
Great post, E.
I voted the first option just because Beckett and Lester can’t be THIS bad for too much longer. Dice-K is a question mark when he comes back, though. He could go either way. Tim Wakefield is just … uhh, Tim Wakefield. The man (I predicted he’d be the team’s LVP. Wow. Slap me in the face. I also said Beckett would be AL CY…). Brad Penny has been bad, but good at the same time (4QS in 6GS).
What I love is our depth. Everyone is really excited about John Smoltz coming back, but I’m just concerned because everyone thinks he’ll be some sort of savior. But he could come back and struggle, so I’m not getting my hopes up. But what IS getting my hopes up are two guys named Buchholz and Bowden in Pawtucket:
Buchholz: 5 GS, 1.33 ERA, 27.0 IP, 26 K, 10 BB, 0.815 WHIP
Bowden: 6 GS, 1.06 ERA, 34.0 IP, 21 K, 12 BB, 0.824 WHIP
Bowden also pitched last night, putting up a solid line of: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO.
These guys get me excited. If anyone in the rotation really faulters, these guys are ready to step up and it’s going to be fun to watch.
by Randy Booth on May 12, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I think we need to sit for now but if Penny/Lester/Beckett don’t fix there ways by the end of the month put in the young guns until they shape up.
by drabidea on May 12, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as that
seems the right thing to do, there are a boatload of reasons why logically we can’t. Penny can go with no strings but Beckett and Lester are going to make every start, unless injury strikes. Bowden and Buch will get their shots via spot starts, injury and perhaps as a Penny replacement.
I really do think Beckett and Lester will turn it around. Lester will not be 08 Lester, but he will be a good pitcher. Beckett will not be 07 Beckett, but he will be a good pitcher. Looking at all of the evidence it is hard not to have faith in this.
by Buzzy on May 12, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at it this way
Our starting pitching has been putrid, but we’re still lagging only 2 games behind a Toronto team that is overachieving offensively. This is just about the best case scenario while the starters get ironed out (or shellacked, if you prefer). The Red Sox have great depth, and Beckett and Lester won’t continue to be this bad.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on May 12, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, well...
That’s the optimistic way of looking at it, but if there’s one thing about baseball it’s that you can’t predict what’s going to happen. Best case scenario, Dice-K comes back, Smoltz comes on board, Lester and Beckett make adjustments and revert to form, and the bullpen stays hot, AND the hitting continues at its current pace (or improves, with Youk’s return)…Boston wins 112 games.
What’s more likely is that Beckett or Lester will return to form, but the other will get worse, or get injured. Youk comes back, but Drew misses 1/2 of the remaining games with injury issues, or Ortiz stays in the funk, or Bay starts acting human.
The Red Sox and the Rays are the best teams in the AL East, and the Yankees and Blue Jays are also strong teams. Baltimore isn’t a contender, but they are a pretty good offensive team, so it’s going to be a tough year, and winning 100 games will be a tall order for any team. Francona seems to be pretty good at managing the roster, so one hopes the focus is on having the most able bodied team ready for the playoffs. If they have to hobble along for much of the year so as not to burn any bridges, so be it.
by 87hoosier on May 12, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is all a little premature
Right now the Sox are 20-12 and you could argue the team is not playing to its maximum potential. Beckett, Lester, Wake and most likely Penny will all need a break coming up, which i would assume will be 15 days each, which opens spots for Smoltz and Dice-K to fill as well as Bowden and Buchholz. After that, I would simply take the best 5 arms and rotate whenever someone needs a break. Masterson and Bowden seem fine in the pen and we all know Smoltz can handle either situation. I might be in the minority but for a #5 I think Penny has pitched above average in his last 4 appearances. What did everyone expect from a guy coming off surgery and moving to the AL? The longer Buchholz and Bowden stay in AAA, the better, they are young and still need to learn how to pitch and gain confidence in their stuff.
The obvious move the Red Sox must make is filling the SS position. Mike Lowell looks great at the plate, as does Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk and Bay. Thats a pretty solid lineup in any division.
In a division of teams with MAJOR question marks, the Red Sox have answers for most of their problems. We have the best bullpen in baseball, some solid starters and a very solid lineup.
Panic seems premature. Find a SS who can hit a little try and move Lugo and honestly I would wait to see if Beckett (who i think did fine the last two outings) and Lester and what we get from Smoltz.
20-12 is a top 5 team in baseball and their is major room for improvement. In truth we just have to beat the Yankees and Rays and both look bad (well except when the Rays play us =)
by SoxAcumen on May 12, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just add 1 more thing
I would also argue that the Sox have had some of their pre-season questions answered positively. Ellsbury was a concern starting the season, but I believe he has proven to be a starting CF, Lowell has recovered well, Bay is better than we expected, our Bullpen is excellent and Okie, Ramirez, Masterson and Delcarmen look very reliable, Nick Green is a nice surprise as is Rocco. Tek looks better than last season as does Wake. And the Sox have money, prospects and solid trade pieces to go out and make a move. I really do not think the Rays or Yankees have all 3 to make the moves they will need. Overall I think the positives are much better than the possible negatives.
by SoxAcumen on May 12, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right now
Ellsbury is below average in CF WAR, and over the last 2 years has done nothing to suggest he is a good starting CF. Right now (but perhaps not looking forward) I would rather have Crisp.
by Buzzy on May 12, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with Buzzy
Ellsbury’s .326 OBP is the 2nd worst on the club (Tek’s OBP is .324). Jacoby only has 7 walks in 138 PA. That awful 5% walk-rate is not an aberration. Last year Ellsbury walked roughly 7% of the time (41 BB in 609 PA). Until Ellsbury gets on-base at a better rate, his value as a hitter is limited because he has absolutely no power.
Incidentally, our old pal Coco has an OBP of .369 right now with KC. He has walked 23 times in 143 PA (16%). Coco was the better player last year, and may be again this year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 12, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you both
want to sit Ellsbury trade Ramirez back to KC for Coco? Cant say I agree with that move…
But just to concede the point, I will be happy to move Ellsbury into the “Negative” section of Red Sox questions at the start of the season. Even with Ellsbury there are more positives from this team than negatives, hence the 20-12 record. =)
Its still way too early to throw people under the bus and start shopping for starting pitching.
by SoxAcumen on May 12, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not what I am saying
I understood the trade, and Ramirez has been a valuable addition. Just that Ells has basically been a big problem not a plus.
by Buzzy on May 12, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 12, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which i just said and really had little to do with my point...
but again I would say things are looking good.
by SoxAcumen on May 13, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to find out if we could have gotten RamRam for Ells instead.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you take into account money, age and chance of getting better, Ells is more valuable.
by BTLove on May 13, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RamRam and more?
I just REALLY don’t like Ells’ batting. In fact, besides the tacos, he hasn’t done much since the WS.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haven't finished reading your comment, but this just stuck out:
Mike Lowell looks great at the plate, as does Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk and Bay. Thats a pretty solid lineup in any division.
Umm… no.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 12, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
for everyone who wants to continue this debate….Ellsbury is a major problem….
Now can we move on to the point … that the Red Sox have had some questions answered positively this season…
Seriously, the fact that you guys focused on 1 mistaken name out of five in an overall correct statement cracks me up…maybe i can ask my partners if we are hiring, you guys would make good attorneys.
by SoxAcumen on May 13, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think everyone reacted just because there has been so much discussion about Ellsbury and his .326 OBP. We’ve all been fairly fixated on it actually. I think if they didn’t bat him at leadoff we would all mellow out about him a little bit.
In terms of the questions answered positively, I think you’re partially right. Lowell in particular has shown he is going to be okay at the plate (the field is still a question though). Varitek has shown some great power too. Wake has been awesome.
There have been some negatives though; Ortiz, Ellsbury and the SS position have not impressed.
by BTLove on May 13, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Sox D in general has been pretty poor this year
Bay is below average in LF, and Lowell, Drew, and pedroia have been “off” so far this year. Tek and Kottaras can’t throw anyone out.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 13, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering why you thought he was doing so well.
Don’t let the BA fool you, he’s still sucking.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on May 13, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, Ellsbury got off to a slow start, if you take away his first 10 games where he was batting near the mendoza line he has a servicably OBP around .360. Not justifiable to have him lead off, but not bad enough to have everyone say he’s been poor. It’s a small sample size, so we’ll see where his OBP is in a month or so, but I’m content with how he is batting for now, even if he is reaching base at a .360 rate via singles more then walks.
by Realistic on May 13, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sign Baba Booey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvh3JtfIIuo
THAT'S the money you could be saving with Geico
by DJDP23 on May 12, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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