Post rec’d.

All of this indicates that he needs some extra bullpen sessions or coaching. It also indicates that his bad luck may also be caused by a poor defense – which seems apparent while watching.
Lowell’s getting older, SS’s been streaky, DP’s been good but not great, and Youk’s been in and out of the lineup.
The OF is filled with two weak arms; a below average glove, a slightly above average glove, and a young CF who’s still learning.
Tek’s been pretty good defensively, and I would think that Beckett’s relatively fast delivery would help control runners. They are still going to be running a lot on Tek (esp. after Tito goes and blabs about our strategy for 2 outs), and that’s going to create more runs for the opposition – which is exactly why the command issues are what scares me the most.

He is throwing fewer fastballs, but not significantly fewer. I think for some reason, many of his fastballs are being registered as two-seamers this year. So he’s really throwing something like 66% fastballs, which is less than 2007 and 2008, but only by a few percentage points (3% of 749 pitches is 22 pitches, which is only a few pitches per start fewer than 2007). I’m not sure this is enough of a difference to cause or indicate a significant difference in performance.

You are 100% right, however, about the control problems. He has been a bit unlucky, but the increased BB rate is the main culprit of the huge ERA. He has to remember how to locate his pitches or he’s screwed. Personally, I think it will come together for him.

Great post, btw.

I rec’d it.

Part of the problem is the strength of opposition. In his first seven games, he’s faced the Rays THREE TIMES, and the Yankees twice. The other two teams were Baltimore and LAA.

Admitting that I am concerned, seven games, five of them against good offenses, isn’t enough of a sample to conclude much of anything. You throw out his two terrible starts (4/25 and 4/30) and his numbers look much different:
31 IP, 15 R, 32 H, 13 BB, 1 HR, 4.35 Runs per 9 innings
Not vintage Beckett, but much better than the one who pitched 4/25 and 4/30:
9.2 IP, 15 R, 20 H, 7 BB, 3 HR, 13.97 ERA

I think Beckett will improve, especially when he plays some games against weak offenses, like those in the AL Central.

…but if he’s going to be batting sub.250, I damn sure expect Varitek’s veteranly good-ness to fix it…

As you said, alot of his 4 seams have so much movement that they register as a 2 seam. Its good when he throws the ball over the middle because it drops right in at the top of the zone. But it seems when he tries to go outside or inside, the ball moves right out of the zone. So far, Beckett has looked pretty damn good to me, he just has real bad luck right now and a fastball that he needs to work on.

As everyone else said though, I am really concerned about Lester

Josh Beckett is our ace, remember the 2007 20-7 year? He had nagging injuries last year and is slow out of the gate. Dump Penny and Smoltz, Eventually Wakefield will retire (sigh), and the gold mine in the PawSox rotation will shine at Fenway in the near future

I shouldn’t have used the word dump. But Smoltz is 42 with nagging injuries, and Penny’s great, but we could get good value for him on the trade market in unstable positions such as SS or catcher

The surgery could work out great, but he’s 42. And definitely agree with Penny, because teams like the Brewers and Mets are desperate for a starting pitcher