Community Projections: Jason Bay

by Randy Booth on Apr 3, 2009 12:31 PM EDT in Community Projections Comment 20 comments

Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay dashes down the first base line with two run home run off Minnesota Twins starter Francisco Liriano in the third inning of their spring training baseball game in Fort Myers, Fla., Friday March 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

7 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay dashes down the first base line with two run home run off Minnesota Twins starter Francisco Liriano in the third inning of their spring training baseball game in Fort Myers, Fla., Friday March 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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The infield is done, now let's move to the outfield where we'll start with Big Game Bay in our daily community projections (for the rest of the community projections and add your thoughts, click here).

This is Bay's first full season as a Red Sox. How will he handle it? Let us know in the comments. Copy and paste the form below:

AB:
HR:
BA:
OBP:
SLG:

Special category:

SB (he said he wants to steal more bags this year...):

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Comments

Won't get as many HR because he is a line drive hitter but still a high SLG

AB: 560
HR: 26
BA: .280
OBP: .360
SLG: .525
SB: 10

by drabidea on Apr 3, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

'line drive hitter'?

He of the career .516 slugging?

Bay is a masher, plain and simple. He’s not far from Manny’s production and is pretty much on par with Mark Teixeira.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Apr 3, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I know

He is a masher. I am one of the biggest Jason Bay fans. I predict him to SLG .525. He just tends not to loft the ball as much as Manny did. He tends to hit more line drives, which I think will take away a couple of his HR and turn them into doubles.

by drabidea on Apr 4, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Per FG's

Manny’s career LD%: 22.4%, Bay’s LD%: 18.4%
Manny’s career FB%: 39.1%, Bay’s FB%: 43.6%

So Manny hits more line drives and Bay hits more flyballs. The reason for your perception is probably the fact that Manny turns many more of those flyballs into HR’s.

by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

edit: meant to write “mis-perception”

by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Technically, it's still his perception, correct or no.

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 5, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AB: 580
HR: 30
BA: .280
OBP: .375
SLG: .500
SB: 10

by RSNexile on Apr 3, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 578
HR: 27
BA: .292
OBP: .388
SLG: .518
SB: 12

Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.

by DougieWentDeep on Apr 3, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 580
HR: 32
BA: .296
OBP: .389
SLG: .523

Special category:

SB: 8

by That5foot9inchMVP on Apr 3, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 560
HR: 33
BA: .287
OBP: 366
SLG: .530
SB: 9

by Gnick on Apr 3, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

    AB: 550
    HR: 26
    BA: .288
    OBP: .365
    SLG: .510

Special category:

SB: 17

by Charger567 on Apr 3, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

    AB: 529
    HR: 40
    BA: .295
    OBP: .378
    SLG: .560

Special category:

SB (he said he wants to steal more bags this year…): 5

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by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 3, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He'll be great.

He’ll be better than Manny.

AB: 530
HR: 37
BA: .310
OBP: .385
SLG: .550

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Apr 3, 2009 10:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 530
HR: 32
RBI: 102
AVG: .285
OBP: .375
SLG .485
Steals 21

Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist

by E5 on Apr 3, 2009 10:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AB: 550
HR: 34
RBI: 108
AVG: .282
OBP: .381
SLG .521
Steals: are stupid

by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 1:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not when you need one

A Red Sox fan should never say that. You Sir are not very intelligent.

Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist

by E5 on Apr 4, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats a little harsh.

Let me rephrase: stolen bases from Jason Bay will have little impact on the Sox success this year. Steals are valued at around .2 runs. So if Jason Bay steals around 10 bases, he will gain the team 2 runs over the course of the whole season. Each time he gets caught it is worth about -.45 runs. So lets say he would help the team by about 1.5 runs. Not really too big a deal. Especially in the regular season.

Also, you are obviously referring to the Roberts steal. It was a great play, but you should remember that the Millar walk was much more important to scoring than the Roberts steal.

by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs