Community Projections: Kevin Youkilis
by Randy Booth on Mar 6, 2009 9:13 PM EST
in Community Projections
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PrintThe community projections continue!
We started with Jason Varitek (which you can still add your projections to), but we move around the horn to Kevin "Youkon Cornelous" Youkilis.
Let's see how you predict the No. 3 man in the AL MVP voting in 2008 to do in the 2009 season:
AB:
HR:
BA:
OBP:
SLG:
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Monster year from Youks
AB: 400
HR: 35
BA: .320
OBP: .420
SLG: .450
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
So I saw that lowish slugging prediction with so many HR’s, and I was bored, so I wanted to see if your numbers are plausible, or even possible. They are not.
400 AB’s w/ .320 BA= 128 hits. If 35 of those hits are HR’s, then the lowest slugging he could have is with 93 singles so (93+35*4)/400=.583
So maybe up the AB’s and SLG.
Well, half the fun on this site is correcting.
The slugging didn’t seem right, but i was tired. That’s my excuse.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
AB 330
HR 15
BA .273
OBP .440
SLG .425
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
I'm going to go against the grain
and say that Youk returns to his pre-2008 levels. I think last season was his career year, and he’ll experience regression in slugging and HR. Numbers and rationales follow.
AB: 530
Youk’s been remarkably consistent here over the last three years: 569, 528, 538. No reason to expect less.
HR: 18
In three full seasons with the Sox (2006-08) he’s had 13, 16, and 29 HR. I think 15-20 is much more realistic than 25-35. Everyone who’s thinking 30+ homers is engaging in wishful thinking.
BA: .285
Youk makes solid contact, but more importantly…
OBP: .380
… He gets on base. Youk may not be a true slugger, but he IS an on-base machine.
SLG: .440
He’s not a >.500 slugger. Here’s the progression from 06 to 08: .429, .453, .569. I don’t think that much of a gain from a 29-year-old is either normal or sustainable.
Another wrinkle is that Youk is playing in the WBC. Will that affect him negatively, or will it have no impact on his play?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
The SLG jump is not normal
But Youk has not had a normal development. He wasn’t a full time player until he was 27 years old. He also was so patient at the plate that maybe took some away from his power. I don’t think he’ll repeat last year, but I gave him a .500 SLG. .440 seems really low, considering the .569 from last year.
Agreed.
Youk was much more aggressive at the plate last year. In ’06 and ’07 his OBP minus AVG* was over .100 – last year it was under 80. I saw him driving the ball more than working the count.
- (is there a name for OBP minus AVG? Isolated patience?)
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Isn't that just BB + HBP?
Seriously—is there another way to get on base other than hit, walk, or getting hit?
And I don’t think anybody wants to think of HBP as “patience.”
There are more ways to reach base besides those three
Reaching on errors, fielders choice, or a strike out that gets away from the catcher. None of those count towards OBP though.
HBP isn’t patience so much as leaning over the plate. That’s a big reason why Jeter, Giambi, and Youk get hit so much.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
All three guys also consistently rate pretty high in pitches per at bat.
I wonder if there’s a correlation.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
From a quick glance at the HBP leaders
it looks like most guys who draw a lot of HBP’s also walk a lot. There were a few pretty glaring exceptions, like when Shea Hillenbrand led the league in HBP’s with 22 but drew only 27 BB’s. My guess is there is a correlation between BB’s and HBP’s but nothing too significant.
It makes sense.
Giambi, Youk and Jeter are frequently among the leaders of pitches per at bat. The more pitches you see, the better chance you’ll see one into your ribs. And the better you are at not swinging at pitches off the inside corner of the plate, the better chance that one will tail into you.
As for Shea, he’s just a dick.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I suppose you could use OBP / AVG
It probably makes more sense than just looking at the raw difference, because then you get an idea of how much of a role walks plays in a hitter’s OBP, without needing to know either of the other numbers.
That would produce a ratio
which we don’t see that often (or at all?) in baseball stats.
I think the reason that we generally list a players in AVG/OBP/SLG form is that we don’t have to create more stats that could easily be generated just by looking at those three numbers.
I think BB% is probably the most useful stat to look at what you are talking about. By showing the difference between OBP and AVG, you are basically getting a (BB+HBP+IBB)%.
I think you mean...
BB + Joba
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Mar 9, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Regarding Youk's new-found aggressiveness
Olney linked to a scout who concurs with my take:
“He is understanding his approach a little better, and what his options are at the big league level,” a longtime talent evaluator said. "The spike in power has coincided with a drop in his walk rate, so essentially he’s become more aggressive attempting to drive the ball in early and hitter’s counts at the expense of seeing more pitches.
"Mechanically, his approach doesn’t appear to be much different at all, though he’s certainly willing to power up when he has the opportunity and is confident enough now to know he can do it. He’s basically not letting those hittable pitches pass by him, which just seems to be an important aspect of his natural progression as a hitter — and he may have become a little stronger and more capable of driving the ball over the last two or three years. In any case, it seems like he’s made an effort to become more aggressive when he has the count in his favor, and it has certainly paid off.
“It will be interesting to see this year if his walk rate improves and his power production declines at all as the league’s pitchers continue their constant adjustment.”
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Youk's numbers
I think Youk’s power numbers are going to edge up, assuming he stays healthy.
AB: 580
HR: 32
BA: .305
OBP: .375
SLG: .520
Hercules unchained!
Without the distraction of Manny telling Youk to stop trying so hard and getting into fights about it, there is no stoppong Youk this year. Expect big numbers all on the good side!
AB: 515
HR: 28
BA: .321
OBP: .380
SLG: .530
Adopted Giant: Clayton Tanner (unless someone tells me he's already been adopted)
by walkoff baltimore chop on Mar 7, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions
Youk
AB: 545
HR: 27
BA: .295
OBP: .385
SLG: .520
He’ll come down a bit from last year, but he will still show some power while getting on base frequently. He should be our #3 hitter with Papi at cleanup, but alas it will not come to be.
Youk will have a pretty good year me-thinks
AB: 540
HR: 20
BA: .280
OBP: .375
SLG: .435
You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.
Slight Regression but still Youktastic
AB: 535
HR: 27
BA: .305
OBP: .390
SLG: .545
Youkkkkkk
continues to be more agressive at the plate
AB: 540
HR: 26
BA: .295
OBP: .386
SLG: .520
by That5foot9inchMVP on Apr 2, 2009 1:25 AM EDT reply actions
GG of BBs
AB: 545
HR: 22
BA: .293
OBP: .387
SLG: .480
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
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