Lester to feature new pitch in 2009
by ltrain2 on Mar 30, 2009 4:18 AM EDT
in News
59 comments
Jon Lester until this point had been predominantly known for his Fastball, Cutter and Curveball mix. That, according to Lester is about to change (no pun intended), as he has been working on incorporating a change-up into his already effective arsenal:
"I think it's going to be a pitch like we used today," Lester said. "When guys are cheating in, drop a changeup on them and they're out in front, and swing and miss or maybe hit a loopy foul ball. It makes them honor that fastball in and it makes them not cheat so much to get there, so I can get back to my strengths -- fastball-cutter in. It adds another pitch that they have to think about in the back of their head when they get up to the plate."
Lester tested his new pitch approximately 10-15 times Sunday against the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, only giving up only one earned run over his five innings pitched.
According to the young left-hander, he had thrown the pitch last year, but only zero to one time per start on average. This year however, Lester can be expected to compliment his above average fastball with the change-up on a regular basis.
Catcher Jason Varitek is excited about the growth of Lester, who had a break out season in 2008 going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA in his 33 games started. Varitek spoke on the new pitch recently saying:
"Well, it gives him more completeness," Varitek said. "It widens his strike zone, widens the depth of the bat. It gives him one more weapon. He's starting to get a much better feel for it. He's used it more this spring than his entire spring."
Hopefully 2009 will see Lester continue to establish himself as one of the most dominant left-handers in all of baseball, the change-up should be an important part of that.
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Lester
4-seamer, 1-seamer, cutter, curve and now change…I like.
by Buzzy on Mar 30, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What
is a 1-seamer
by CB,DT,LB,OR DE is what we need on Mar 30, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1-seam.
See:
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/12/23/700877/pitch-f-x-profile-jon-lest
I think Lester demonstrated this in a pregame during the playoffs.
Who knows-maybe this could just be called a traditional 2-seamer?
by Buzzy on Mar 30, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think it is a two seamer because rarely his fastballs break
by CB,DT,LB,OR DE is what we need on Mar 31, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm... two seamers do break.
Usually a late, side-to-side movement, IIRC.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was saying
his 4 seamers rarely break thats what i was saying
by CB,DT,LB,OR DE is what we need on Mar 31, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 seamers "rise"
Which is to say that they don’t drop out as much as other pitches; they don’t actually go up.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 1, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best example:
It’s a technically a sinker.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure the rest of MLB will LOVE this news
A young, growing lefty who’s adding a new pitch every year? This is going to be fun to watch (well, fun for Sox fans at any rate).
An early prediction: for 2010, he decides to add the knuckleball to his repertoire. . . .
by lone1c on Mar 30, 2009 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Word on the street is that it will be a Knuckle Curveball…
by Randy Booth on Mar 30, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That pitch is a bitch on the wrist.
No rhyming intended.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this article could use a little bit of a clean up
Straight outta HP. Go MDC!!!
http://soxcentury.blogspot.com
by alfonzo on Mar 30, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think ltrain2 is doing a great job.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 30, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks SoxDevil…
Just ltrain2 being ltrain2
by ltrain2 on Mar 30, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is the Tek quote weird from the source?
He’s used it more this spring than his entire spring.
I think the second career is supposed to be career, possibly? Good article, and very scary for opposing batters.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 30, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tek quote
Yes, that is the way it is featured in the source (bosox.com)…I wanted to change it, but obviously it wouldn’t be a proper quotation then.
I assume that alfonzo’s comment regarding cleaning up the article must be in regards to this, because I fail to see any problems outside of that.
Just ltrain2 being ltrain2
by ltrain2 on Mar 30, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the "no pun intended" was a little syrupy.
But then, I just read this article yesterday, so I’ve got my pun radar up pretty high.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 30, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting read...
and yes, I even found it a little if-y including that as I wrote it…but I didn’t foresee it getting noticed and commented on. Ha, oh well…
Just ltrain2 being ltrain2
by ltrain2 on Mar 30, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All good.
I critique because I care.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 30, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can confirm that tommy cares.
And a belated wlecome, ltrain.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 31, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back on the subject of Lester
Last year I was on record as saying that Lester would most likely top out as a rather decent #3 pitcher in the rotation. I’ll take a side of humble pie and revise that prediction. I don’t see any reason why he won’t continue to improve and become a front-of-the-rotation guy; either a #1 or #2. He obviously has the mental composure to continue to function under pressure and get out of jams. I’ll be interested to see if this change-up will stick in his repetoire over the long term. If it does I’ll be truly optimistic. Johan Santana would be a best-case scenario, but it’s not completely out of the question.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 30, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
exactly.
I felt the same way regarding his ceiling earlier, but now I will find myself expecting him to be a #1 type producer (whether that be a fair assesment from me or not). And again, I agree with the Johan statement…I immediately thought of Santana when I heard about the change-up. We’ll really have to just wait and see how it comes along.
Just ltrain2 being ltrain2
by ltrain2 on Mar 30, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on Santana
Since Santana has been successful, his best pitch has been his change. I’m encouraged that Lester’s adding one, but unless it becomes a masterful pitch Johan’s success will be out of reach. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m hopeful! Lester has a great attitude and work ethic from what I read.
It’s amazing how important the change-up is at the MLB level. Pedro’s circle change was a big reason for his success, too.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 31, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
EDIT
I added the link to the article that Itrain2 was quoting from.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 30, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mucho congrats on the promotion, ecoli.
Of course, I enjoyed being the only one besides Randy with a window in his office, but hey…
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 31, 2009 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Allen.
That window is a nice perk. I especially like the view of the gray abandoned cement factory; it’s very picturesque. And it gives me a quick escape if anyone discovers my Ponzi scheme.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 31, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I have my investment back?
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure.
Just wire the modest processing fee to get your money back. It’s $1.50 for every $.35 you have invested with us.
E.Coli Ponzi cares about your business. Please stay on the line while we hack your PayPal account and buy more of our stock.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 31, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
I think Madoff gave me a better rate on the fee.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BS
He gave me a slightly better rate, but I’m already with the company.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Apr 1, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
Oh well. It’s just money right? Right? I mean it’s not like I had any ID info with him. Oh, crap, wait!
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 1, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to use "serene"
But picturesque describes it pretty well.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Apr 1, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I love Jon Lester as much as the next guy and personally I expect big things from him. My question is why do the projections seem to hate him? They all have him regressing from last year and PECOTA has him at 170 IP 4.57 ERA 1.45 WHIP 182 K and W-L of 11-9. They give him a breakout rate of 9% and a collapse rate of 41%. That is bad. Should we disregard the projections because of an inability to account for his illness and its effects in 2007?
He didn’t have a particularly low WHIP last year (1.27), though it was much lower than previous years, so I think he has to show that he can keep that WHIP down before I’m fully on the #1 starter bandwagon.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lester had a crazy season last year.
23 walks through the end of April, another 13 in May, and then 30 over the next four months COMBINED. Normalize those first couple of months, and his WHIP drops significantly.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 31, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow. Crazy splits.
So hopefully he found his control and can keep it up for this season. Unfortunately none of those projection systems think that is the case.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't blame illness in 2007
Nor would Lester. I think he had to make some adjustments, and continue to improve his control and preparation.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 31, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, 9% breakout rate isn't surprising
Keep in mind what the “breakout rate” measures: the probability that, according to whatever measurement PECOTA is using, a player will improve by 20% over his current average. (“Collapse” is similarly to do 20% worse.)
Given the impressive level Lester is already at, a 20% improvement would basically amount to a Cy Young-caliber performance.
by lone1c on Mar 31, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But a 41% collapse rate? I think you’re right that we shouldn’t expect a significant improvement from what he’s already done, but PECOTA is saying there is a 41% that he will significantly regress, and an 80% chance that he will be at all worse than last year. No matter how you look at it, that is not a good sign.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could have something to do with usage.
His innings jump from 2007 to 2008 isn’t insignificant.
And a lot of projections systems go by more of a player’s recent history than the previous year. PECOTA could simply be taking into account the fact that last season was Lester’s first in the Majors in which he showed decent control.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 31, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do the projections take efficiency into account?
If not, that’s another misleading issue.
Sure, Lester’s innings look like a lot on paper, but a significant part of the increase (maybe even half) is a result of Lester’s improved efficiency. In ’07, a typical start would last maybe between five and six innings. In ’08 (especially the second half), the same pitch count would get him 6.2-7.2 innings.
The question then becomes, is this improved efficiency something that will last, or is it just a transient effect.
by lone1c on Mar 31, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
I understand your argument. Lester improved his efficiency last year, but still must have greatly increased the amount of pitches thrown. He faced 3.5 times more batters in 08 then in 07. Don’t discount the “Verducci” rule; Lester is a question mark due to the increased work load.
As for why the projections seem to mark him down, it is hard to tell. As Tommy mentioned, Lester dramatically decreased his walk totals after May last year. Perhaps they view this as a fluctuation? Interestingly, even with fewer walks, Lester often falls behind 2-1 (I can’t find it now but there is a web site that tracks count percentage). I doubt that the projection programs look at this, but maybe again this is an indication of the possibility of regression back to more walks?? Who knows. I still expect good things from Lester this year.
by Buzzy on Mar 31, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dislike innings pitched. I'd rather see pitches thrown.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 31, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even that could be misleading.
Not all pitches put the same stress on the body. A curveball, fastball, and knuckler are way different in terms of amount of stress you put on your arm, and your body as a whole, IIRC. Maybe a pitch count broken down by pitch type.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They measure different things.
Pitches thrown shows the stress (roughly) on the body. Innings pitched shows the value the pitcher has brought to his team.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But I’m usually evaluating the pitcher in these sorts of discussions and not his contribution. I’d go with Quality Starts for a starter.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 1, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely not 3.5 times as many
The number usually thrown around is that Lester pitched about 70 more innings in ’08 compared to ’07 (minors and majors combined).
My argument is that the actual increase is not as significant, because of the improved efficiencies. I would say the real increase is more like 40-45 innings which, while still significant, is not as big as 70 innings.
by lone1c on Mar 31, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My mistake
it is however more than 1.5 times as many batters. He faced 874 batters in the regular season in 08, 275 in 07 and an additional 306 in 07 in the minors. He also pitched an additional 8+inning in the postseason in 07 and 26+ last year.
I don’t think the efficency comes close to making this up…
by Buzzy on Mar 31, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have the Minor League pitch counts, but in the Majors:
In 2007 Lester threw 1083 pitches in 63 innings. Thats 17.19 pitches per inning. In 2008 he threw 3309 pitches in 210.1 innings. That’s 15.74 pitches per inning. So he saved about 1.5 pitches per inning. Given that he threw the same number of pitches per inning in the minors (which I doubt, I bet it was lower), the 74 inning difference meant he threw 111 pitches less in 2008 than he would have had he pitched the same innings in 2007. Those 111 pitches at his 2008 rate would result in a 6 inning difference. So, the 74 innings were actually more like 68 innings, which is significant.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I bet his efficiency in the minors was more similar to his 2008 efficiency, so there would be a negligible difference and the 74 inning difference is fairly accurate.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course you could use math to solve problems.
But then it takes away the fun of speculating.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Yankees patented "ignorant speculation"
You’re helping to pay Mark Teixeira.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 1, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprising
I thought he did better than that. (Or perhaps there was a bigger difference later in the year—at least that’s what it seemed like.)
by lone1c on Mar 31, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking quickly at his gamelogs, I think you're right.
There are a lot of 7-8 inning 100ish pitch games, while it was almost a full innings less for the first 2 months or so of the year.
by BTLove on Mar 31, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was after the Jays game and the no-hitter
After the duel with Halladay and the no-hitter a few weeks later that we started seeing the “polished” Lester. It was like a switch was thrown, and he became a completely different beast.
by lone1c on Mar 31, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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