Sox = #1 (On FanGraphs)
by 0157H7 on Mar 27, 2009 8:56 PM EDT
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PrintDave Cameron just completed his Organization Rankings of all 30 MLB teams, and the Sox top it off, followed shortly by the Rays (#2) and Yanks (#3). Any time the organization gets praise is noteworthy in my book [metaphorical book, not to be confused with my actual book].
That said, Cameron's praise rings a little hollow. Witness:
"Ownership: A
There are lots of not-so-flattering stories about John Henry and Larry Lucchino that make the rounds, and given Henry’s involvement in the shady three way sale of the Red Sox/Marlins/Expos and Lucchino’s issues with Theo Epstein, they’re pretty easy to believe."
This damning with damned praise thing is fun! Let me try:
"There are a lot of stories about Andrew Friedman and the Tampa Bay Rays ownership group being Satan-Worshipping Stalinists, but it's hard to argue with their results. I give them an A!"
Moving on to the actual players, Cameron is more directly positive, but can't help but notice a flaw in the roster:
Major League Talent: A
... The core of the team isn't exactly young...
This throwaway line is actually rather serious. While the Rays have very talented, young players with depth to match, the Sox have an aging squad, several of whom (Lowell, Ortiz, Tek) are coming off very bad years or serious injuries. Our system has plenty of pitching, but we lack good position players (beyond Lars).
Cameron's praise of the farm system is also qualified:
Minor League Talent: B+
... The system is good, not great.
Which is pretty solid, considering all these years we've been winning. It's easy to build a great farm system with a few wise trades, risky acquisitions that played out, and a decade of absolutely awful performances (see Rays, Inception-2007).
Overall, these marks adds up to an A, which adds up to #1. I'm a little surprised. If this were college, I'd suspect grade inflation.
Don't get me wrong - I think the Sox have a strong team, but #1 may be pushing it. What do you think? Is Cameron right? Are my worries sheer paranoia, or are they justified? Speak your mind in the polls and in the comments.
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It's the balance between brains and resources
The Yankees, by virtue of their deeper pockets, can always outspend the Sox. Until recently, the Rays, by virtue of their total lack of success, could always draft better prospects than the Sox could (effectively, they could grab players at the same talent level as the Sox, plus a bonus top of the first round pick each year).
Thus, the Sox have had to develop the fine art of picking the right prospects, developing them, and plugging them into the system, while also finding the right mix of affordable free agents (high-quality, but not necessarily so desirable as to arouse the Yankees’ covetousness and willingness to spend). When everything comes together, the results are nothing short of spectacular (2004, 2007). If things go to hell in a handbasket, you end up with a year like 2006—acceptable, but nowhere near the results you want. And sometimes, you have a year like 2008—you come up a bit short, but it’s still a hell of a ride.
As for the status of the minor league system, admittedly it is a bit thin, but that’s partly because of the number of minor leaguers that have made it up to the major league club in the last few years. (We don’t have the same number of top-level prospects as the Rays, but that’s understandable given the drafting positions we’ve had the last decade or so. If the Rays have continued success, we may see a similar decline in their farm system.)
The top 3 teams are in the AL East.
Its pretty incredible. There might be times in the next few years when one of the best three teams in baseball does not make the playoffs.
The Red Sox are a strong team
but not unbeatable and not without flaws. 3B with Lowell is a question as is RF with Drew (because he’s J.D. Drew) and Ortiz is coming back from that wrist injury. However, while the Red Sox do have some age on the roster, they’ve done a wonderful job streaming young talent into the lineup (Youkilis, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester) and Lars Anderson is coming to a ballpark near us sometime this year to stay.
They can be had but it’s gonna take a big punch to do it. The Rays showed they’re capable. I think if the Yanks got a few breaks, they could have a shot. The Diamondback pitching with Haren/Webb/Scherzer in a playoff could be nasty. And of course, the Phils are just plain tough.
Of course, just because you’re #1 April 1st doesn’t mean you’re #1 on May 1st or on November 1st.
Not really a team ranking, per se
More the state of the franchise as a whole, considering management, talent, and the availability and utilization of resources.
This doesn’t mean that the Sox are the favorites to win the WS—just that they have the pieces of the puzzle fit together to compete.
I think the Rays have a very scary team this year, even more so than last year
But, really, fuck Tampa.
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
Why so hostile?
I like the Rays and what they’ve done (finally) for their team. They have always had young, talented position players, and it seemed like they were 1 or 2 solid SP away from contending. Well, they finally have the pitching and they appear to be here to stay.
"they appear to be here to stay."
If that’s not a reason for hostility, then I don’t know what is. Fuck Tampa.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Count Me In
Fuck Tampa!
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Mar 28, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Sonny
I simply like that dude. I really don’t care about the rest of their players, only Longoria, who’s an asshole.
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
by MerryGoByeBye on Mar 28, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That last remark gets a rec. He is definitely an asshole…
by Randy Booth on Mar 29, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'm now using them in italic
It’s even better!
"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"
by MerryGoByeBye on Mar 28, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
What?!?
Did he really say the Redsox offense is going to be the best in the league???? I love the Redsox, but I’m also realistic is saying Hell No!
Also why the hell does he think Bard is not going to be a great player? Just because we haven’t had the first overall pick in the draft for 3 out of the past 10 years and high first rounders the other time, doesn’t mean we have a bad farm. (Rays)
If he thinks our farm system is only good, he needs to go take a look at San Diego, Seattle, and Detroit!
Very Biased and seemingly uneducated. I’ll stick with ESPN and FOX before this guy
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
Well, the Red Sox did graduate a few guys last year.
Ellsbury/Buchholz/Masterson/Lowrie and they dealt Hansen/Moss.
Also, with Bard. Yeah, he throws hard but he’s got a lot of work to do to become a complete pitcher. Having seen him in college and in pro ball, this is what I’d like to see more of:
1. Improve overall command as well as control.
2. Continue to develop secondary pitches (settled on slide piece…still needs a change if he wants to start).
3. Add a bit more movement to the 4 seam, as it flattens out at times though he’s made progress there too.
4. Repeat the arm slot.
I can see where people would be skeptical that Bard would have trouble as a fastball-only guy against advanced hitting, especially where he’s not 100% settled mechanically. He’s going to have to make an adjustment if he’s in Pawtucket this year.
I’d tend to think the Red Sox system is clearly in the top 5-6 but not in the top two right now.
So...
The PECOTA projections have the Red Sox scoring the most runs in baseball this year. PECOTA is usually pretty good, it projected Tampa to win 90 games while your boys at ESPN and FOX probably had them losing 90.
Re Bard: He is a bullpen arm. There is a limit on how valuable a bullpen arm can be. Even if he is our future closer, it puts his ceiling a lot lower than Lester or Lars or other guys who play more than 70 innings per year. I think the problem with our farm system right now is that there are only a few impact guys close to the majors (Lars, Bowden, Bard and Buch, but Buch is no longer a prospect). We have some pretty good looking young guys, but they are all years away. He is not blaming the Sox for having a worse system than the Rays, but we do, whether or not its because of all their high picks.
RESOLution
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 28, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We wouldn't want that, now would we?
During the 2008 presidential campaign, Ron Paul supporters used the slogan “rEVOLution.” The words capitalized spell “LOVE” backwards. I chose to spell LOSER instead, since Ron Paul is losing this contest as well (and for other reasons, which are best left to a political site).
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
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