Midseason trade?
by Schulz on Mar 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT
59 comments
The Red Sox look pretty good going into 2009. Their rotation and bullpen are strong points. Pairing their pitching and defense, their overall run prevention should be more than enough to give their above-average lineup a decent chance to win. However, this team, especially its offense, is not without uncertainties. Can Ortiz and Lowell bounce back from injuries and be productive? Can Ellsbury evolve into the hitter we hope he can be? Can Drew give us 450-500 healthy ABs? Do I even need to talk about our catchers?
Long story short, this team is very good, but also vulnerable to offensive injuries and ineffectiveness. But fear not, the Red Sox are poised to recover from any weaknesses during the season. According to Alex Speier, the Red Sox' payroll will be under $120MM this year. He also had this to say:
As a result, the Red Sox could be in an enviable position as the trade market takes shape during the coming season. So long as the team’s revenues are not affected drastically by the economic climate, the team appears to have resources and flexibility should a need or opportunity to make trades emerges during the year.
Peter Gammons also had an interesting take on the situation. I'm not an "ESPN INsider," but I saw a quote on MLBTradeRumors.
Gammons talked to an NL GM who commented on the Red Sox:
"There are a lot of teams sniffing around on guys like Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez. But they want a premium young catcher or bat in return. When they're ready to bring Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz into the equation, they may be dealing from a position of strength because of their pitching depth and the fact that they are so far under budget."
I see it like this; the Red Sox have 9 major-league ready starters (or they will be at some point during the season), and 9 major-league releavers.
SP: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Penny, Wakefield, Smoltz, Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson*
RP: Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez, Saito, Masterson*, Delcarmen, Lopez, (Bard & Tazawa)**
Pitching is an obvious strength. Will the Red Sox use this to their advantage at the trade deadline? If one or two of our position players are ineffective, will Theo pull the trigger on a deal? What mid-season trades, if any, do you predict the Red Sox will make?
*Masterson was counted twice due to his flexability.
**OK, so Bard and Tazawa are NOT major league ready, but at least they have high trade value.
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Definitely not Jake Peavy. Hanley, Brian McCann, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday….?
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."
by revigik on Mar 27, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably not Hanley
The Marlins’ new stadium should help them to keep him around for a while and build their team around him.
by Schulz on Mar 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
Would they reject a package of Lowrie, MDC, and Buccholz?
by Greg on Apr 5, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they already did
basically. We offered a package around Buchholz, and they told us to get lost.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Apr 5, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanley only makes $5.5 mil this year and $7 mil next year. I don’t see them trading him before 2011 when he goes up to $11 mil.
by BTLove on Apr 5, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know I would.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Apr 6, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking
about two Sox players in particular: Ortiz and Lowell. If one suffers a significant injury I’ve got to think Epstien will pursue a trade. Prince fielder is an interesting idea for DH, but he’s not a free agent until 2012, so that would create an 1B/DH overload in the following seasons.
If Lowell can’t recover, what about Adrian Beltre? The Mariners probably won’t contend, and Beltre is in the final year of his contract. He plays good defense and hits well. Matt Holliday is always a possibility as well…
by Schulz on Mar 28, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday
You have to think that Holliday is on the Sox radar, given he’s currently employed for the Oakland A’s who are unlikely to be able to re-sign him. A trade would certainly require a new contract to be worked out, so perhaps that forces the issue with Jason Bay.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 30, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm really curious to see how Holliday responds to playing out of Coors.
Inquiring minds…
My guess is Oakland thinks they can win the West this year – and they might be right. So I’d put a Holliday trade as doubtful.
Plus, I think Holliday will want to test the open market, meaning Oakland won’t get the king’s ransom they’d want for him.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 30, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course Holliday will test the market
Scott Boras is his agent. If Holliday has a good season, he’ll be in the Bronx next year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 30, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and NO to Beltre
Yes, he’s a decent fielder and has a great arm, but he does NOT hit well. Beltre’s career line is .271/.327/.459, good for a .786 OPS. The Red Sox generally do no pursue low OBP guys and we lambasted Ellsbury for his .336 OBP last year.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre isn't that bad.
He has actually performed to his contract. He is a very, very good fielder and an above average hitter. If Lowell were to get injured, I bet we could get Beltre cheaply (as long as the Mariners are not contending) and he’s in the last year of his contract.
by BTLove on Mar 30, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.271 may be a fine average, but a .327 OBP is awful in my book.
Not a good hitter.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 1, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.327 is a little below league average, but Beltre plays half his games in Safeco field, a park that clearly favors pitchers. This means you can bump his numbers up a bit (BP has his eqOBP at .335 for 2008). His SLG is above league average. BP has him at 3.7 WARP and FG has him at 4.2 value wins (which includes defense). This is worse than Lowell in 2007 but better than 2008 and 2006 Lowell.
by BTLove on Apr 1, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008 Lowell was hurt.
I’m sorry, I just don’t think Beltre is very good. I think I’d rather shift Youk to 3rd and either let Carter or Anderson play first-sack.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 2, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre plays godly defense
and has good power. If Lowell’s hurt, Beltre would be a good replacement, although like you, I’d like to see Carter or Anderson at first and Youk at 3B.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Apr 2, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It all depends on the cost.
Beltre is a very good player, but if we have to give up anything significant to get him I’d be against it. But if Lars plays well in AAA I’d probably go with him. Now I’m getting a little too hypothetical so I think I’ll stop.
by BTLove on Apr 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Sox payroll is roughly $117 million
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts:
C- Jason Varitek $5 million
1B- Kevin Youkilis $6 million / Mark Kotsay $1.5 million
2B- Dustin Pedroia $1.5 million
SS- Julio Lugo $9 million / Jed Lowrie $0.414 million
3B- Mike Lowell $12 million
LF- Jason Bay $7.5 million
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury $0.4495 million
RF- JD Drew $14 million
OF- Rocco Baldelli $0.5 million
DH- David Ortiz $12.5 million
Total for position players (minus Kottaras and another bench player) = $70.3635 million
SP- Josh Beckett $10.5 million
SP- Daisuke Matsuzaka $ 8 million
SP- John Smoltz $5.5 million
SP- Brad Penny $5 million
SP- Tim Wakefield $4 million
SP- Jon Lester $1 million
Starting rotation (not counting Buchholz and Penny’s and/or Smoltz’s incentives) = $34 million
RP- Jonathan Papelbon $6.25 million
RP- Hideki Okajima $1.75 million
RP- Takashi Saito $1.5 million
RP- Javier Lopez $1.35 million
RP- Manny Delcarmen $0.476 million
RP- Junichi Tazawa $0.45 million (even though he is in the minors)
RP- Ramon Ramirez $0.441 million
RP- Justin Masterson $0.441 million
Bullpen total = $12.658
However, these numbers don’t include bonus money, past player contracts Boston still owes, or performance incentives.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 27, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Short answer.
No.
Long answer:
The Epstein Red Sox haven’t made any major mid-season trades since 2004. And that was trading a hurt Nomar with no defensive skills. And we got players who played solid defense from that trade but weren’t impact bats.
Big acquisitions have happened through free agency or promotions from the minors, not mid-season trades. Important trades generally happen in the offseason (Renteria for Coco, HRam for Beckett and Lowell,* Arroyo for Pena, Coco for RamRam).
Mid-season the Sox get role players, 4th or 5th starters, and other non-marquee name players to fill out the team. So having an extra $30 million means absolutely nothing.
Peavy, Hanley, whoever. Those are pipe dreams. We didn’t even get Abreu when he was available (cost was higher for us than the Yanks). We won’t be getting anyone cool or worth getting excited about.
*I realize this wasn’t technically Epstein, but it was the other members of the ownership group. And Epstein was advising his replacements at the time.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 27, 2009 8:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay says hi.
I think there might have been a big trade last summer, too.
by lone1c on Mar 27, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mea culpa
Forgot about that one. Frankly, character aside, it didn’t affect the composition of the team much. We traded a half season of an awesome left fielder and two players who didn’t matter for 1.5 seasons of another awesome left fielder. It’s not like trading a solid starter for a burgeoning power bat (Arroyo for Pena), or four prospects for a veteran third baseman and ace (and Guillermo Mota, lest we forget).
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 27, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not this year
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 28, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not for the Sox
But I expect him to start all year in the minors and doubt he would be an option in the bullpen for the big club.
by BTLove on Mar 29, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will most assuredly need to replace
Wakefield as a starting pitcher by mid-season.
by NG on Mar 28, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think...
You know what? Nevermind.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 28, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you dont think the Red Sox(Should Detroit struggle and be out of contention by the break)could put together a package for Miguel Carbrera(Whilst probably having to take on Dontrelle Willis)?
by Ohpityme on Mar 29, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
Willis sucks, and his contract is dead weight. Also, the Sox have nowhere to play Cabrera, as they already have a 1B and DH.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 29, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if we found a way to get rid of Lugo...
And had Lowell play the utility role? Put Miggy at 3B.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 29, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera is a bad 3B. Lowell can’t be a utility IF becaue he can only play 3B. Also, I’d rather have Lugo’s contract than Willis’. Lugo is a better player.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 29, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Just trying to think of all the options – esp. ones that involve canning Lugo.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 29, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that scenario,
Youk would play third and Cabrera would play first. I’d love to have Miggy, but it’s true that we have no where to play him, unless some terrible career-ending injury should occur (knock on wood).
by Schulz on Mar 30, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't we find a way to get rid of Lugo?
At this point, I’d rather just eat his contract and send him on his way.
by lone1c on Mar 30, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo is an exceptionally expensive back-up
But he’s better than most bench players you’ll find. That’s worth more than simply saying goodbye.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 30, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why just get rid of him?
He’s bad, but as SoxDevil says, hes better than most bench players and even a few starters in the league. He is horribly overpaid, but that is a sunk cost. Going forward there is no reason not to keep him. He is around league average in the field and actually got on base last year (.355 OBP).
by BTLove on Mar 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lowell will be injured
youk at 3rd miggy at 1st..though the tigers will never trade him, because theyre building around him…
by schmosterballs92 on Apr 8, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prince Fielder
Thats interesting right there. If Lowell is struggling does Theo go after Fielder, play him at first, and shift Youk back to third?
A lineup consisting of Youk, Ortiz, Fielder, and Bay sounds scary good.
by ritz on Mar 31, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fielder
is due to make $10.5 million next year. Lowell makes $12 million this year and another $12 million next year. If Lowell struggles, he’ll be unmovable. So you better hope he doesn’t struggle. Also, for what it’s worth, Scott Boras is Fielder’s agent. I think it’s unlikely that the Sox will go after Prince Fielder.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 31, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But if we did...
I’d have another connection to the Sox – my grandmother rehabbed her knees with Prince. She says he’s really nice.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 31, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you joking?
Or do I detect a bit of sarcasm?
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Apr 3, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m gonna say right now that I think the Sox should have no part of any player that did rehab with bs’s grandmother.
by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
That knocks all of 1 player off the list. He’s family lives/d in Central Florida, btw. That’s why he was rehabbing there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Red Sox make a midseason trade...
it isn’t going to be for a pitcher. Our bullpen is stacked and we’ve essentialy 9 starting Buchholz (counting Smoltz, Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden.) I can see a trade happen which will result in Lowell go out of town. In that case Youk will move to 3rd and a big fist baseman bat will come to town. Lugo will have a good year actually. Maybe a trade will happen for an ailing Varitek or Kottaras ( Dusty Brown could replace Kottaras.)
by WesselBrocken1 on Apr 2, 2009 3:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That was my point
I was suggesting that we trade part of our pitching surplus for position players
by Schulz on Apr 2, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
The first line should be: we’ve esentially 9 starting pitchers (counting…
by WesselBrocken1 on Apr 2, 2009 3:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually suprised
Not one of you guys talked of trading Brad Penny in some package. Let me give short scenario, all hypothetical now.
Penny does good
Bucholz does better
Brewers do good
Cubs do better
Redsox need a shortstop of the future and J.J. Hardy sucks.
Redsox trade Jed Lowrie and Brady Penny for that beast shortstop in the minor for the Brew Crew. Aldicos Escobar or something like that. They get the good pitching for the division run against the Cubs and we get our shortstop of the future. Hell throw,in Kalish or something just get something out of this pitchign surplus.
Lets be realistic here people. We all know Lowrie can’t stay at short long-term. Say what you want, the minor league stats don’t lie. We need youth at SS and Catcher obviously,
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Apr 3, 2009 9:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie could play 2B for them if Weeks
flops too.
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Apr 3, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean like we all know
Jeter can’t stick at short?
I tell you, any minute now he’ll be sliding over to 2nd.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Apr 3, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big problem with this is
that Hardy is only club controlled through 2010, at which point he will probably get a solid free agent contract. We have Jed Lowrie for peanuts for the next 5 years. Hardy projects to be about 40 OPS points better this year; how much is that worth? If Penny is pitching well, it probably is not worth him.
by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Hardy is supposed to cause the Brewers to go after Lowrie in Inda's view.
And we’d get the prospect and have Lugo play SS for the rest of the season.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 4, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that I reread it, you're right. That is what he meant.
But I don’t get it. JJ Hardy does not suck. He’s actually pretty damn good. Last year he was right around the 4th best SS in baseball with the bat and a well above average fielder. He was equally good the year before. If Jed Lowrie ends up being even close to as good as JJ Hardy, then we should all be pretty happy.
by BTLove on Apr 4, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shh...
we like other people to be ignorant.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Apr 5, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People knock Hardy because he's streaky as hell.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 7, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JJ Hardy doesnt in any reality suck.
Hes one of the better all round shortstops in the league…and is much better than Lowrie.
by Ohpityme on Apr 9, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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