Who will more games: Wakefield, Penny or Buchholz?
by bottomlinesox on Mar 25, 2009 1:02 PM EDT
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PrintWake has looked better lately and Penny looked sharp in his first spring start... but there are still concerns with both pitchers. Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz has also been pitching well, but he may be forced to wait his turn in Pawtucket.
That said, it's a long season and anything can happen... so I ask you Red Sox fans:
Who will win more games in 2009: Wake, Penny or Bucky?
Discuss here at OTM and cast your vote at The Bottom Line blog!
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I vote for Wake
I think its all a matter of starts. Your big 3 are locked in. Wake gets 30+ starts guaranteed. The fifth starter is probably going to be Penny, but what about Clay and Smoltzy? My gut feeling is that Smoltz grabs the job in May and doesn’t let go. So Wake wins his typical 12-14, Penny doesn’t get enough starts or breaks down, and Clay wins 17 in the minors.
It's gonna be Buch
But if you don’t want to count wins in AAA, it’ll be Penny.
Wake.
Penny won’t keep Buch down if the prophecy of his greatness comes true. If not, Smoltz could steal it from him. Wake has the securest hold on his spot in the rotation.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 25, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Penny has a few prophecies of greatness himself.
Prior to his arm issues, Gammons and others were pegging him as the NL Cy Young favorite. If he actually feels as good as he’s saying, he could potentially be our 3rd No. 1.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Neither is Penny
but I would agree that a healthy Penny is better than Dice-K. Penny has a career of moderately high WHIP, not unusually low FIP numbers. All of his ptiching has been in moderately good pitcher’s parks in the NL. He has fared poorly against the AL.
I would say he is talented and can dominate, but is not consistently good enough to be a good 1, even when healthy. Hope I am wrong.
His 2007 was pretty damn close.
It seemed like he had finally put everything together, then he came up with dead-arm last year. If he picks up where he left off, he will be #1-esque.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
No
His 2007 had worse K rate and BB/K than 2006. His HRs went way down (thus the ERA improvement) but his BAPIP was also 35 points lower…overall he was basically the same in 06 as 07. In both years he was very good, not great.
In terms of BABIP
2006 was the outlier (.327), not 2007 (.296) (his career BABIP is .303).
Manny ain't the only bad man.
What are your requirements of a #1 pitcher?
Wins? He gets plenty.
K’s? He gets TONS.
FIP? Of the four projections at FanGraphs, only one has his FIP rising from last year (Marcel).
I would hope
that my #1 guy has a career FIP significantly better than 4, a career whip better than 1.35, and good numbers against good comp (eg in the playoffs +against the AL). Penny fails in these regards. Beckett does not. He is my number 1.
Don’t get me wrong-Penny is a good pitcher. ‘Number 1" isn’t the most meaningful term-sure, on the Nats Penny is a 1. I just want him to go out and stay healthy and pitch as best he can which is pretty good.
Dice-K's FIP and WHIP are always going to be higher than normal.
He nibbles a lot, so he gives up a lot of walks. If you don’t like that, then don’t draft him in fantasy. For real baseball, it’s fine as long as he gets out of bad situations caused by those extra runners.
And by number 1, I mean on a .500 team, he’d be the ace. Not that he’s in competition to be the #1 starter on our team.
But why do you think so lowly of DiceK?
He’s good on your expectations if you account for his style.
I don't think lowly of him
Lets look at our competition in the AL. You could make the case that NY, TB, LAA, CLE and perhaps even TOR each have 3 starters that are better than Dice. In some cases it is close. As I said before, he is a great 4 and a good to very good 3. Tampa’s 4 is Sonny, NY’s is Pettite, LAAs is Escobar or Saunders. Is Dice-K so superior to these pitchers? He is a valuable pitcher for us and a good deal, but he is not a real top of the rotation guy.
We didn't really
pay too much. The posting fee does not count toward the luxury tax and his actually salary per year is low. Further, you could view the posting fee as worth it towards building a bridge to Japan. The Sox now have 4 Japanese pitchers, giving them future advantage in signings.
by Buzzy on Mar 26, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He could go 7IP a game, if he threw more strikes.
Since Tito is never going to let him throw 125 pitches a game, he’s going to have to work on finding a way to get the same number of strikes he’d get in 125 to fit into a pitch count of 100. If he can do that and still manage to control the hitter’s bat as well as he does now, he’ll be an ace.
Is it a style with Dice-K?
or is it a deficiency? In 2007 that high BB rate led to a high ERA, in 2008 it did not. We need another year of data to draw any conclusions about Dice-K.
I Fully Agree
Lets see how Dice-K does this year. My intuition says he will be a 4+ era pitcher this year, since his BB abd HR rates seem unsustainable. If not, I will admit that there are those who can escape conventional wisdom on this.
Smoltz.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Bucholz's time has arrived. Wake's has expired
Wakefield in no way is guaranteed 30+ starts. If wake struggles for an extended period, which is very likely considering his age, theo will not hesitate to plug Bucholz right into his spot in the rotation. 2 pitchers on complete opposite ends of the age spectrum. If Penny stays healthy he will rack up the most wins of this trio but I dont see that happening. Clay’s time has arrived, Wake’s time has expired.
by That5foot9inchMVP on Mar 25, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
Why does his age make it any more likely that he will have a bad stretch?
And if Buch isn’t absolutely dominating AAA, he’ll stay there.
Here's the average pitcher's WAR deteriation:
From: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/13/796380/pitching-war-aging-pattern
Consider that Wake throws a knuckleball ~90% of the time, which means less wear and tear on his body. It also means that his chances of having a quality start any given time out are lower than most. He still managed to average just over 6IP/GS last year.
Pitchers retire for a reason
Age absolutely means he is more likely to have a bad stretch. Wake is less likely to suffer because of his age due to the fact he throws a knuckleball yes, but all athletes decline with age.
by That5foot9inchMVP on Mar 25, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
But has he declined far enough that the FO would be willing to give Buch another shot?
I think Buch will have to show that he is ready by being unhittable in AAA, and even then I think he’ll get a shot at the 5th spot first. I think Penny will have his chance early on to try to pass up Wake, and if he can’t, then he will be Buch’s target.
BTW, great topic BottomLine.
Age
Jamie Moyer threw a 196.1 innings as a 45-year old last year. John Smoltz, a pitcher many Sox fans are counting on, is only a year younger than Wake—and coming off major surgery. Since 2003, Wakefield has made 33, 30, 33, 23, 31, and 30 starts. Wakefield is the #4 starter until he shows that he can’t do the job. Buchholz will likely start in the minors.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 25, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It is called "Life"!
As you age, your physical prowess decreases. It is just the way it is, and Wakefield is certainly in decline. The bet that he will NOT finish the season as a starter ( and probably as even a major league pitcher) is still ON.
Doesnt have to be unhittable in AAA
so lets say Wake goes 1-3 with an era of 5.5 over his first 5 starts and Bucholz goes 3-1 with an era of 2.5 in pawtucket. That is certainly not unhittable. You dont think Clay will get the call up in that situation?
by That5foot9inchMVP on Mar 25, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions
I think Penny would move up, and Wake would be borderline.
Buch is going to have to show that he’s ready though. He’s been rushed too many times before.
I vote for Clay
Since we know that every starting pitcher is likely to get a break in the season or a trip to the DL for short time, Clay will be the fill in (at least until Smoltz is ready). He has seen how good it can be in the majors and how bad it can be. There is a good chance that he now understands the commitment needed to excel in the majors, and given a chance, I feel he just might. Would love to see it, his stuff can be so nasty.
I vote Penny.
If healthy the guy is dirty. I don’t think Buch will get enough starts and I doubt Wake will win more than 10 games.
I think Wake
But I also think Penny will throw better, but that it doesn’t translate in wins, but in ERA.
Buchholz will have an ace type season in AAA.
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