What can fans expect from Clay Buchholz this year?
Clay Buchholz has been more than impressive thus far in his first four starts during the spring of 2009. Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA, striking out 12 hitters in his 13.2 innings pitched (as of 3/23). The young right hander seems to have worked out the kinks in his mechanics and more importantly his compsure, limiting his walks to only three so far. Spring Training is always a tough way to gauge how a player is progressing given the fact that a lot of the competition are minor-leaguers, but you have to be optimisitc about what Clay has been able to accomplish to this point.
It's no secret that Clay Buchholz's success lives and dies with his ability to locate his fastball, something he struggled mightily with in 2008 going 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA in his 15 starts. Buchholz features one of the most devastating breaking balls in the Red Sox organization and also works in an above average changeup. However, without a consitently located fastball, those pitches are almost rendered useless.
Buchholz has impressed Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell with his delivery and more importantly his demeanor this spring saying:
"The one thing he's shown, even from the start of camp, his delivery is much more under control. He's come into camp with a more relaxed demeanor about him, I think it's in large part from what he learned through the challenges of a year ago."
This is something that should excite not only Farrell, but the entire Red Sox Nation as well.
At one point while facing the Orioles in a spring training game on March 10th, Buchholz was seen shaking off Jason Varitek numerous times before getting the pitch call he wanted. That pitch was a two-seam fastball which outfielder Luke Scott grounded to second ending the inning. Obviously Clay has become more confident in that pitch as this is something we would not have seen from him last year during his struggles.
With the abudance of arms featured on the Red Sox roster heading into 2009, Buchholz will most certainly start the year in Pawtucket allowing him just that much more time to gain conifdence and be ready when he is finally called upon sometime during the course of the regular season.
Buchholz has been fortunate in being able to be exposed to the tutelage of future Hall of Famer John Smoltz while working out this spring. Smoltz has offered tips and suggestions to Buchholz prior to his starts and the young right-hander credits much of his confidence to the Red Sox new addition:
He sat down [before my start] and said, "Hey, anything that you need to know?" He said he feels like he's been in the same position as me early in his career as far as people telling you, "Hey, you've got really good stuff. You need to learn how to use it." It's been good so far having him. ...
It was the best outing I've had in a long time. ... I do believe that anybody that goes out there and is getting outs whenever they're throwing the right pitch, it's easy to pitch that way. It's when adversity strikes, like in between those [good] innings, when you know what kind of pitcher you are.
With Buchholz's fastball finally coming around, and Smoltz helping him with the mental aspect of his game, it's not a stretch to expect a break-out year from the 24 year old much like the one we saw from Jon Lester just a year ago. Major League Baseball has seen the potential from this kid after his no-hitter on September 1 of 2007, but look for Clay to establish himself as one of the most dominating right-handers in the game for Boston on a consistent basis this year.
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Expecting big things.
Personally, I’d like to see them give Dice K a few week vacation right now in order to conserve himself for the long haul and let Buch start the season in the rotation.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Not a bad idea
It may not be a bad idea to give Dice a two-three week spring training workout routine to follow and let Clay start out in the rotation. Clay is certainly looking to be in mid-season form and with pitchers generally being ahead of hitters early in the season, it could potentially help out with his confidence. I like the idea…
Won’t happen, but I like it.
by Logan Lietz on Mar 23, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks
I appreciate it, I’ll have a Curt Schilling article up later tonight if you’d like to check it out.
by Logan Lietz on Mar 24, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Welcome to OTM.
And I agree with you guys; he’ll start in Pawtucket, but if he can continue to perform well then I expect him to get a chance at some point in the second or third month of the season.
It’s no secret that Clay Buchholz’s success lives and dies with his ability to locate his fastball
You can probably say that about every pitcher in MLB, except knuckleballers like Tim Wakefield. That said, I think Buchholz will be important this year. While Penny (if he is able to pitch) will probably nail down the #5 spot, I expect Buch to get at least 10 starts this year. Dice-K will need rest, especially because of his over-use in the WBC, and there will be injuries. No team gets by with just 5 starters. Successful teams have depth.
I think Buchholz will be a very good MLB starter. By next year, the rotation could look like this:
Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Dice-K
Wake
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Buchh as No. 3? Or is this no specific order?
by Randy Booth on Mar 24, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
If Buchholz even reaches 75% of his potential ...
He’ll be much better than Dice-K. At best, Matsuzaka is a #3. Buchholz has #1-2 potential. If Buch puts it together, the Sox will have a 1-3 as good as anyone in MLB.
Nothing I’ve seen from Dice-K—and this includes his awful start v. USA in the WBC—has shown me that he is anything more than a decent pitcher. Buchholz is a pretty good bet to be a much better pitcher. Beckett and Lester are head and shoulders better. Wake, when healthy, is almost as valuable.*
*For those who disagree with the last point: Until Dice-K can go at least 6 innings a start, his value is limited because he relies on 3.1-4 IP by the pen to save his games. Wake averaged 6.03 inning per start. Since 2003, Wakefield has thrown 1123 innings as a starter (3 relief innings), 6.24 IP/GS. Dice-K’s innings per start last year was abysmal. Unless he improves, his usefulness is somewhat limited.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 24, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I really dont agree with that DD. Dice-K was 18-3 last season, guy was amazing in the WBC and has a history of being a top of the rotation arm, plus he is only 29. Dice-K has been in every big game situation he possibly could be put into and succeeded a large majority of the time. He was the freaking MVP of the WBC and you complain?
Buchholz has done nothing in the bigs and is still a major risk.
Potential v. 18 wins and an era under 4.00, im sorry ill take Dice-K.
and as for the WBC v. USA, um…he pitched against a lineup that included Jeter, Wright, Roberts, Rollins, and Dunn all All-star caliber hitters. If he doesnt groove that fast ball to Roberts he gets out of that game giving up 1 run. You guys complain about his outing? Someone please tell me who has Buchholz pitched against and which team did he have success against?
Seriously, we all need to stop putting our future in potential and look at guys who perform.
Forget the WBC
It doesn’t matter. Most of the players on the teams Dice-K faced wouldn’t be good MLB players. In the only line-up Matsuzaka faced that had MLB players—Team USA—he needed 98 pitches to get through 4.2 innings. Doesn’t that sound familiar?
Win totals don’t impress me. They certainly are not an accurate measure of how good (or bad) a pitcher is. Wins are dependent on the run-support a pitcher gets and, in Dice-K’s case, how well the bullpen pitches after a pitcher leaves the game.
Dice-K made 29 starts last year. He didn’t pitch 6 innings in roughly half his starts (14). He walked 94 batters (1 intentionally) in 167.2 IP. That’s 5.05 walks per 9 innings. Dice-K’s BABIP was on the low side in 2008: .260. While some think it’s because he doesn’t "give in" to hitters, we’ll have to wait and see. In 2007, Matsuzaka’s BABIP was .301. If he doesn’t cut his walks down and his BABIP goes up (which is likely), he’ll be far less effective in 2009.
Sure Buchholz struggled. But his stuff is better than Dice-K’s, and he was extremely unlucky last year (.355 BABIP).
I stand by what I said: If Buchholz reached 75% of his potential (which is a 1 or 2 starter), he’ll be much better than Dice-K. In my opinion, Dice-K is a decent pitcher, but he’s nothing special.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 24, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree
for the most part with Drugs. Dice-K is a reasonably successful pitcher. He is far from a top of the rotation guy, and I strongly suspect that he will never have a year like last year again. Even so, the inability to eat innings is troubling. Buchholz may never even reach this level of success, but if he did not, I would be really disappointed. That is not to say that we ever know what to expect from a young pitching prospect, but I agree that he has the stuff to exceed Dice-K. Now we just have to see if he puts it together.
speculation at best.
Again, you use the stats of one player who has success v. a player who has little or no success in the majors. You are arguing that you “believe” Buchholz will be a better pitcher when he has not done anything v. a guy who just won his 2nd MVP of the WBC, won 15 + each season in the MLB and dominated the AL champs in the playoffs.
As for run support, Dice-K gave up 2 runs to the US and it was obvious that Hara was going to pitch Sugiuchi and Darvish v. the US bc he had Iwakuma for the finals and both had been excellent.
This man crush with Buchholz is great, i love speculating on our prospects as well, but Buchholz has had success in spring training while Dice-K just went up against Cuba ( with Cepeda and Gourielle who are definite MLB starters), Korea (Sin Soo Choo is a starter on Cleveland) and the US (who had 7 all stars in their starting lineup) and won.
Ok, you win I am done with this argument, its obvious you value fantasy potential v. performance, but the truth is you have no idea what Buchholz will do in a real game this season. We know Dice-K will give the Sox a chance to win every time he pitches.
I think you miss the point.
The point is that one is comparing apples to oranges. Buccholz has proved nothing at the MLB level, so all one can do is speculate. On the other hand, we have a better idea of what Dice K can do. The point is just that given Dice-K’s performance as a benchmark, would you judge your prospect’s success as met if he does not surpass this line?
Dice K is an outstanding #4 starter, and a good to very good #3. I think it is fair then to ask the question if your top pitching prospect meets this level, are you happy with it? Where I agree with you and disagree with Drugs is that I think 75% of Buccholz potential cannot “far exceed” a very good 3. That is hyperbole and asking for too much. There are no mancrushes on Buchholz here; he is simply a talented propect that could reach 1-2 level, which clearly exceeds what Dice-K has shown us.
All projections are speculation
Who cares about the WBC MVP? The level of competition isn’t that great—and the players that are good aren’t in shape. Hey, Jeff Bailey was the MVP of the International League last year. Mike Hessman (who?) won the award in 2007.
Also, Choo was a bench player last year. We’ll see how he is as a starter this year. Calling any Cuban player a definite MLB starter is just—well—speculation.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 24, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The best basketball players in the world play for USA basketball
That didn’t stop Team USA from getting wiped out for a few years in the Olympics and the World Championships.
The best teams aren’t always the teams with the best players. And the best players aren’t always at their best in March.
As for performance vs. fantasy value, you’re way off base. Yeah, Dice-K had a few nice number last year, most notably his record and his ERA. But both were as much or more the result of luck as they were his own skill. Lester had a worse record and higher ERA, but he was a much better pitcher last season. In fact, despite a far worse record and much higher ERA in 2007, based on BABIP, BB/9IP, and durability, I’d argue that Matsuzaka was actually a better pitcher in 2007 than he was in 2008.
That makes him a very good #3 starter if he can cut back on his walks or, worst case scenario, one of the best #4 starters in the big leagues. But Buchholz, if he can get himself back on track, has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Will he be that this year? Of course not. But he’s also four years younger than Matsuzaka and could do with a little more time in AAA, particularly if he can be dominant there, which would be a nice confidence booster.
Dice-K's short outings aren't as bad for the Sox.
Obviously I would rather see more innings than less innings from Dice, but if our bullpen is as dominant as I expect it to be, it might just be a little more acceptable to have a starter that can only pitch 5-6 innings; as long as those innings are pitched at an elite level. We will not be filling the other innings with replacement level pitchers, we will be filling them with Masterson, Saito, Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Oki, and Paps.
I agree
to a degree. Even last year the Sox pen contributed about 34% which is not excessive, and that is with Dice plus problems from the 5th starter slot. On the other had, it does not excuse Dice-K. Pitching, on average, fewer than 6 innings per start is simply not good. Furthermore, I really don’t think he was elite (not that you are saying he was) for those 5-6 innings, even though his ERA looked that way. I would be very very happy if he simply duplicated what he did last year, even if he just goes somewhat less than 6 per game.
Dice-K projections and analysis clearly requires its own post and discussion because the guy is still a big question mark. He had worse K/9 and BB/9 in his 2nd season but the exact same WHIP. He gave up significantly less HR/9 in the second season but with almost the exact same GB/FB ratio. His ERA was 1.5 runs better in that second year, but was only effective enough to pitch 2/3 innings per start less than in the first year. He’s a puzzle. I’m confused. Someone smarter than me sort all this out.
Look past the narrow prism
I think you should look past your perception of what a quality outing is to figure out Dice-K’s capability. He is probably never going to pitch 7 innings for 100 pitches consistently but let him pitch 125-135 pitches as he is used to and he will pitch 7 innings and have an ERA under 3.5. But RedSox will not allow him to do that as they are afraid that he will blow out his arm or shoulder (again a typical MLB perspective). I never saw Dice-K wearing an Ice-pack after a game like other pitchers do. We never know if his arm will blow out or not but limiting him to 100 pitches is like cutting his pinkie and asking him to pitch like other elite pitchers.
HE IS A WINNER. He has been a winner in every level he pitched in and that is not something you teach. you either have it or you dont. You may have elite stuff and still not be a winner like A-Rod etc). He has elite pitcher stuff, his ability to dig in when he gets in trouble is outstanding. You may belittle WBC saying it means nothing but there were other elite MLB pitchers (Zambrano, Oswalt, Peavy etc) pitched in WBC and they did not win the MVP. He rose to the occasion and won the games he pitched in.
Yes he does not challenge the hitters. I think he should trust his stuff little bit more and challenge the hitters, then he w ill reduce his walks which will reduce his pitch count. But you can not deny his results. Not every pitcher can avg 16-17 wins a year with sub 3.0ERA even if it is with the help of a bullpen. Who know bullpen might have blown some wins for him and may be he did not get run support in some and more in others. At the end of the day they all even out and what counts is whether he gave his team a chance to win the game or not.
So stop dissing the guy and enjoy his pitching while you can.
I'm not going to argue who is or isn't a "winner"
Because that is stupid. Baseball is a team game, and “winners” tend to play on winning teams. Derek Jeter. the ultimate “winner,” hasn’t won anything since 2000. But, that’s probably the fault of his teammates—right?
I’m not going to discuss a pitcher’s win totals, as that is a product of factors largely outside his control. Let’s discuss this point:
I think you should look past your perception of what a quality outing is to figure out Dice-K’s capability. He is probably never going to pitch 7 innings for 100 pitches consistently but let him pitch 125-135 pitches as he is used to and he will pitch 7 innings and have an ERA under 3.5. But RedSox will not allow him to do that as they are afraid that he will blow out his arm or shoulder (again a typical MLB perspective).
While you praise Dice-K for what he accomplished last year—18 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA—you don’t seem to credit Tito and Farrell for Matsuzaka’s 2008 success. I find this strange.
We only have Matsuzaka’s two MLB seasons to look at, but there is some evidence that refutes your point. Let’s take luck out of the equation (although I believe Dice-K was extremely lucky last year). In 2008, Matsuzaka made 29 starts. He threw 100 or more pitches in 20 of them. Of those 20, in only 6 games did he throw 110+ pitches. His high total was 118 pitches in a masterful 5.2 IP 6 H 3 ER 6 BB 7 K outing against KC. In his next start, he went 4 innings and then spent a month on the DL. Matsuzaka only had two other outings after his DL stint where he went at least 110 pitches. In 2008, Dice-K finished the season 18-3 2.90 ERA. More importantly, he had a 3.33 ERA after September 1st.
In his rookie year, Dice-K made 32 starts. He threw 100+ pitches in 25, and in all but three of his starts he threw 96+ pitches. 17 times in 2007 Dice-K threw at least 110 pitches. He made 6 starts of 120+ pitches and had one 119 pitch game. The result: he finished the season 15-12 4.40 ERA, and had a 7.62 ERA after September 1st.
Based on his two seasons in Boston (which is all we have to go on), the evidence suggests that Dice-K’s pitch totals should be closely monitored. I don’t think the Sox are afraid Matsuzaka will blow out his shoulder. They cut his pitch totals down because, in 2007, Dice-K showed he couldn’t handle it. He tired down the stretch. I don’t care what Dice-K did in Japan or in the WBC. All that matters is his MLB track record. And, until he proves otherwise, Dice-K’s pitch count should be limited.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 29, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Because that is stupid. Baseball is a team game, and "winners" tend to play on winning teams. Derek Jeter. the ultimate "winner," hasn’t won anything since 2000. But, that’s probably the fault of his teammates—right?
Jeter still gets the crucial hits when needed and Dice-K got the outs when needed. Thats what I was implying by being a winner. They rise to the occasion.
While you praise Dice-K for what he accomplished last year—18 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA—you don’t seem to credit Tito and Farrell for Matsuzaka’s 2008 success. I find this strange.
I did not mention anything bad about either of them individually. I have nothing but praise for Tito and Farrell. I was not implying they handled him incorrectly either. The point I was raising is against those who consider him a 4th or 5th starter on a MLB team and to those who says he sucks because he can not get through 7 innings in under 100 pitches. All I was saying is that is not the only measure of an elite pitcher. Certainly he can and should improve on that front but when some one says “if CB can reach 75% of his potential then he will be better than Dice-K and not acknowledge that if Dice-K can reach his potential he can be a top 1-2 pitcher as well on any rotation” they are not being fair to him. I have nothing against monitoring his pitch counts closely and if Redsox think that is the best way of using him then thats what they should do.
I do not agree that WBC is a sham. Each of the player that played in those games played because they wanted to play and otherwise they could have said no to the invitation. When you accept the invitation to participate, it is your responsibility to get ready for that game and I am sure most participants started their preparations early to be ready for those games. The US team and possibly some other teams were full of all-stars and typically hitters get in to form faster than pitchers. But give credit where it is due. Dice-K was used against US not by chance but because he is familiar with those hitters. He was ready and gave his team a chance to win those games. Thats all any manager can ask for from a pitcher.
I never said the WBC was a sham
Although I don’t like it. I just said to forget Dice-K’s Japanese and WBC success because it has no bearing on what he does in Boston. MLB competition is tougher, and Dice-K was anything but impressive against Team USA.
Matsuzaka has made 7 career post-season starts. Only one of those starts (Game 2 v. Tampa last year) can be considered a good start. He has a 4.79 post-season ERA in 35.2 IP, meaning he has averaged almost exactly 5 innings a start. Dice-K has walked 17 in those 35.2 innings, and has a post-season WHIP of 1.57. The fact that he is3-1 in those games is more of a testament to his teammates than to Matsuzaka’s winning ways.
Dice-K is a decent pitcher, but nothing special. He is a slightly above average #3. I’d prefer Dice-K in the #4 slot. I also have few doubts that Buchholz will be significantly better than Dice-K.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 29, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If Wake is still in the rotation at the start of 2010...
…he won’t be by the end of 2010. He’s been hanging on by the thinnest of margins the last couple of years. And while he still puts up decent numbers, he’s not really good for more than 20-25 starts at the most.
I suspect that by the end of this season, the rotation will look like this:
Beckett
Lester
Dice-K
Penny
Smoltz
Penny will move on next offseason, Smoltz will retire, and Buch will move into the rotation full-time in 2010.
Re; Wakefield
Wake is generally a lock for 25+ starts. Since 2003, when he moved back into the rotation, Wakefield had only one year with less than 30 GS. He was hurt in 2006 and only made 23 starts. That was the only year he threw less than 180 innings as a starter in Boston.
Last year was one of his better seasons. I’d be very happy if Wakefield duplicates his 2008 numbers this year.
Wakefield is a reliable, cheap, league-average pitcher, who averages over 6 innings a start. He has a lot of regular season value, and only makes $4 million a year. I liked the Penny and Smoltz signings, but you really don’t know what to expect from either. Also, Penny, even when healthy, isn’t a lock to be better than Wake. As long as Wakefield is effective, he’ll pitch.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 24, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
We would all love Wake to be good again...
but after the second half last year there are thoughts that he might fall off a cliff this year. At some point he will stop being effective, hopefully its not this year.
But I agree, if he can put in 6 innings per start at a 4.5 ERA, he’ll stay in the rotation (though probably not for the postseason).
It wasn't really the second-half
Wake had two bad months last year: May and September. He had two very good months: June and August. His other two months—April and July—were decent.
Wake made 5 September starts. Two were abysmal: one where he failed to go 2 innings against Texas, and a 2.1 inning shelling by Tampa. He also threw 8 innings of 3-hit, shut-out ball against Toronto that month; and 5 shutout innings against the MFY. Wake’s other start that month was a 6-inning 4-run win against Cliff Lee and the Indians. All 4 Indians runs were scored in the 5th inning. Wake struckout 6 and walked 1.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 24, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
And each of the last two years...
…he made several starts he shouldn’t have because his arm was done. Just because he did make 25-30 starts doesn’t means he’s good for 25-30 starts.
Although
By that logic, you can cut down the number of starts made by any pitcher on any given year.
Like all pitchers, Wake has had his share of bad starts. I wouldn’t say he was shut down because his “arm was done.” He has had injuries, an occupational hazard in the big leagues. Beckett has had his fair share of injuries, and Dice-K was hurt last year—and was fatigued by the end of 2007.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 25, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I expect improvement from Buchholz this year
and he’ll be worthy of a #2 slot in 2011.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

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