OTM Presents: YOUR 2009 Red Sox lineup
by Randy Booth on Mar 19, 2009 7:34 PM EDT
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PrintIt all started with a simple debate: who should bat leadoff for the Red Sox in 2009? The answer, according to OTM readers, is Jacoby Ellsbury (despite efforts by E-Coli that proved useless). Then it all spurred into a bigger question: what should the entire Red Sox lineup look like this year?
Without further ado, here are your results:
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Dustin Pedroia
- David Ortiz
- Kevin Youkilis
- Jason Bay
- J.D. Drew
- Mike Lowell
- Jason Varitek
- Jed Lowrie
I don't know how it exactly happened, but Varitek edged Lowrie for the No. 8 spot ... somehow. This lineup looks very solid, though. One through four is a lock, the questions just get a little juicier after that. How will Terry Francona's mind work? Will he want Drew, a lefty, between Youkilis and Bay, both righties? Will he want to have Lowell, who last year was in the four-spot quite a bit, hit as low as seventh? And Lowrie, a doubles machine, batting ninth? Not sure of that come Opening Day.
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Need a non-Teix choice.
And a “PUT JD IN LEADOFF AND MAYBE WE’LL TALK” choice.
by bdalebs on Mar 19, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Need a
why the hell is Varitek batting at all choice.
by NG on Mar 19, 2009 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Depending on his health, I'd like to see
Drew, like you said, in between Youk & Bay so it would be L,R,L,R for the middle of the lineup. Drew leading off wouldn’t be all that bad either when we use our 4th or 5th outfielder when Ellsbury needs a day off.
What the lineup should look like
1. Gabe Kapler CF
2. Trot Nixon RF
3. Mo Vaughn 1B
4. Brian Daubach DH
5. Troy O’Leary LF
6. Anyone except Nomar SS
7. Bill Mueller 3B
8. Doug Mirabelli C
9. Jeff Frye 2B
"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby
lineup
Everything’s set except for 3, 5 and 6, in my mind. Everyone has to accept that Ortiz may need to move down and Tek has to go ninth:
1. Elsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Youkilis
5. Lowell
6. Drew
7. Bay
8. Lowrie
9. Varitek
and then, if Ortiz falters:
1. Elsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Drew
4. Youkilis
5. Ortiz
6. Lowell
7. Bay
8. Lowrie
9. Varitek
Think about the bottom third with Bay and Lowrie! Good grief.
You're crazy
Lowell ahead of Bay? A career line hitter of .279/.343/.467 who just came off surgery ahead of a career line hitter of .282/.375/.516 in his contract year. Sorry but that does not make sense.
I don't understand why people aren't batting Jason Bay 4th or higher.
Bay has far Far FAR better career numbers (131 OPS+) than Kevin Youkilis (119 OPS+) and Mike Lowell (110 OPS+). Drew is closer to Bay than either of these guys (129 OPS+).
Maybe he’s not Manny. But that doesn’t mean he’s not the best or second best hitter on the team. I swear, everyone is underrating Bay.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 19, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Agreed and Rec'd
He should be batting 3,4, or 5 depending on lefty righty matchups and confidence in Youk and Ortiz. Anyone who puts him in a different spot in the order, is frankly, not thinking clearly.
Booooo
Me and quite a few others want JD in leadoff spot and noted this since the first poll. A nearly .400 OBP career mark and good baserunning skills, PLUS, seeing alot of pitches each AB makes this a no brainer. Ellsbury needs to learn to be more selective to hit leadoff in this lineup.
Carcass stays at 8, put Ellsbury at 9.
I also think you should give Bay a crack at #3….
The reason why Varitek ended up ahead of Lowrie
That’s easy: you platooned Tek with the backup catcher as well as Lowrie and Lugo. Lugo dragged down Lowrie a bit; I suspect if you had us vote on Lowrie independently of Lugo, he would probably have ended up in the 8 spot. Personally, I’d argue that he shouldn’t be batting any lower than 7th and, given their relative power and speed, should probably be batting directly ahead of Dr. Doubles (Lowell) at this point.
I think some people were following the logic that batting Lowrie 9th would make him almost a second leadoff hitter and set the table for the rest of the order. This logic is stupid.
Agreed
If that’s what they were thinking, they should have just made Lowrie the leadoff hitter, and put Ellsbury in the 9 spot.
LaRussa, anyone?
BTLove has the idea, but for some reason doesn’t agree with it.
Batting the OBH (offensive black hole) that is Tek 8th and a speedy, light-hitting, decent OBP guy, like Lowrie hopefully will be, 9th means that in every instance other than the 1st go-round of the lineup, it is extremely likely that Lowrie will be batting with less than 2 outs. He then becomes a “table setter” for Pedroia, Ortizzle, Youks, Bay, etc.
Alternately, Tek batting 8th means the lineup may very well end there more often than at any other spot, as Tek loves the 4-6-3 when he is at the plate. This converts Lowrie into a defacto leadoff man for ~ inning 3 onwards.
I like the idea of batting your worst hitter 8th.
One unrelated, justification: Tek’s power isn’t all gone. He can still nail mistake pitches to either field.
by Gentlejackjones on Mar 20, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Not a good idea
So having your worst hitter hit 8th as been done, look at the NL some teams have their pitchers hit 8th. The advantages are you have another baserunner on the bags when the heart of your order comes up to the plate. The disadvantages is your worse hitter gets more at bats then your “table setter”. Which creates more runs?
If you ask any sabermatician, the worst hitter has to be significantly worse in order to gain runs by putting him in the 8th spot. As bad as Tek is he isn’t bad enough to compensate for the extra at bats he would get over our 9 hole hitter.
This is wrong.
The guy who bats 8th gets more at-bats than the guy who bats 9th. If you have a worse hitter batting 8th, then over the course of a year, they’ll make more outs than if you had put a better hitter there. More Outs = Fewer Runs.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Lowrie's not exactly "light-hitting"
He had a better XBH percentage than Pedroia did, and he’s pretty good at driving in runs in bunches with doubles and triples, and even by sac flies.
It makes more sense to me to have him available to drive in Youk, Bay, and Drew than to have him serve as a set-up bat for Pedroia, Ortiz, and Youk.
I saw this happen last year
I watched a lot of Cardinal games and was stunned how many times the eighth place hitter would come up with two runners on and two outs…..and make the third out, ruining a lot of rallies. LaRussa is a great manager, but he outsmarted himself on this one. You want your worst hitter up last, where he gets fewest at bats……period.
by ccthemovieman on Mar 20, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yup.
Lowrie can drive the ball. Not a lot of HR’s, but we can expect a ton of doubles. I think his power is definitely best used to drive in runners. If we have Jacoby leading off, we need tek batting 9th so our two worst hitters are hitting back to back (and yes, Lowrie’s ST OPS of 1.307 has me pretty high on him).
Well,
I guess we’ll see. I also am encouraged by Lowrie’s spring stats, and I think with the non-dislocated fracture healed, he has shown very good doubles power. This would warrant more ABs overall than Tek’s projection, certainly.
The LaRussan (?) thought would be that sacrificing the actual OBs to the lesser offensive player comes back as a better return in runs scored. The fact that runners are on base for the hitters at the heart of the order means distracted pitchers with a fast runner on base with fewer outs recorded when facing Pedey, Youks, etc.
meh. It’s gonna be a great lineup either way, so what a luxury. The real question might be what to do with Lowrie in the lineup if he develops into a Pedey clone. 8th or 9th seem too low in the order, but can he really lead off?
by Gentlejackjones on Mar 23, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Ellsbury (speed)
2. Lowrie (hitting)
3. Pedroia (hitting)
4. Youkilis (power/hitting)
5. Ortiz (power)
6. Bay (power))
7. Drew (power/hitting/hurt) – Baldelli
8. Lowell (power/hitting/hurt) – Bailey/Carter/Wilkerson
9. Varitek (well-rested for catcher)
Revote
I demand a revote after everyone reads Sky Kalkman’s article on how to optimize a lineup. The info is taken straight from “inside the book” by Tom Tango among others.
Going by that piece
1. Pedroia (high OBP, low power)
2. Drew
3. Youk
4. Ortiz
5. Bay
6. Lowell
7. Ellsbury (speed in front of singles hitters)
8. Lowrie / Lugo
9. Varitek
I don’t like that lineup, though. The reason that they like the 5 hitters so much is that those hitters come to bat with more runners on base. But the reason the 5 hitter comes to bat with runners on base is because the best hitters are hitting 3rd and 4th, and therefore are getting on base at a good clip. If you move your best hitter from 3 or 4 to 5, he’ll get fewer at bats, and his replacement will be on base less for the best hitter to drive him in.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Actually
The way I interpreted that article, the line-up should look like:
1 — Drew
2 — Bay
3 — Ortiz
4 — Youkilis
5 — Pedroia
6 — Ellsbury
7 — Lowrie
8 — Lowell
9 — Black Hole
Looking at this, i really want to flip the 1-5 spots around.
Ortiz is by far the Sox best hitter, though, and shouldn't be third.
I’ll take a look at it over at BtB.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 20, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's my take.
Link.
1. Drew
2. Youkilis
3. Bay
4. Ortiz
5. Pedroia
6. Ellsbury
7. Lowell
8. Lowire
9. Varitek
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I feel like 1-5 is really strong, but 6-9 seems to be no-mans land. What purpose does Ellsbury serve batting 6th? That’s my biggest question in that lineup.
My thinking was that Pedroia hits a ton of doubles and can steal second.
So a singles hitter after him is quite effective. And with all of Lowell’s doubles and homeruns, Ellsbury’s speed and OBP are optimized.
But I can see the argument that you want more power two spots after Ortiz, who will not score from first without a lot of help. And Ellsbury followed by Lowrie and Varitek isn’t awful, as he, too, can steal second and be driven in by their singles.
The projections I used from CHONE have Lowell and Ellsbury projected as exactly league-average hitters, so flipping them doesn’t make much of a difference. To get the right answer, you’d want a sim. Not that it matters much.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Quite interesting.
And I like it, though Ellsbury batting any higher than 7th (sure, one spot) seems strange to me. If I read correctly, you seemed kind of on the fence w/r/t Lowell or Ellsbury in the 6th slot, so maybe we’re not really far apart there.
And I really like the idea of DP in an “RBI” spot in the lineup. He and Youkilis would get into it pretty good over that, i think.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
They'd get into it pretty good? I don't get that.
But yes, Pedroia’s actually a prototypical number five hitter. They come to the plate with tons of runners on base and in important situations. You want a guy who can pound the ball all over the field and drive them in. Plus, he doesn’t make outs (projected .335/.434) and can steal bases in front of the weaker singles hitters behind him.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
"Weaker singles hitters"?
The only one of Ellsbury, Lowell, and Lowrie who can be described as a “weaker singles hitter” is Ellsbury. Lowell averages 40 2B’s/23 HR’s a year, and Lowrie could easily match the number of doubles.
An average of 100 RBI’s per year would be insane production from a singles hitter.
I was talking hypothetically about Pedroia as the prototypical #5 hitter.
Most teams don’t have a Lowell batting lower than fifth.
Somewhat related, you want doubles hitters behind players who end up on first base a lot, don’t steal a whole lot, and are good baserunners.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 21, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
By “They’d get into it pretty good”, I think he means the Pedroia smack talk would be raised to even higher levels. Which it would.
BT is correct.
That was the “living in the south for 15 years” coming out in me.
There’d be a lot more ‘old married couple-type bickering’ probably would’ve been clearer.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
I'd rather have Lowell ahead of Ellsbury
Let Lowrie benefit from the extra fastballs.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
If this were 2006 or so
I’d agree, but I’d argue that Papi is no longer the best hitter on the team.
If he were to show signs of a renaissance, I’d gladly put him in a “better” position in the lineup, but not right now.
2007 was maybe the best year of his career and obviously he was hurt in 2008. If healthy, there is little reason to think he won’t be great once again.
I agree. He still managed a .369/.507 line hurt.
As much hype as Pedroia got last year, he hit .376/.493. And Youk? .390.569
CHONE projects .401/.555 for Ortiz and .388/.474 for Youk, mostly because 2006 and 2007 matter, too.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
To be fair
I believe he will have good numbers, but I don’t think we’ll see the re-emergence of Ortiz as an unstoppable force the way he was from 2004-2007.
(Part of it is physical, but I also think part of it is mental: he thinks he’s not going to see good pitches with Manny gone, therefore not as many pitches look good.)
What is all the JD love about?
Other than a hot couple of months last season, can we all please calm down and remember that JD Drew hasn’t done much with the Red Sox, and his career for that matter. The 6 hole or lower is perfect for him. I’d actually like to see Bay hitting 4th and Lowell ahead of Drew, but that may be too many righties in a row. I like the lineup as stated. The 1-2 holes are strong. Lowrie will move up this year, bet the ranch. This kid is a good hitter.
This:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.D.Drew#2007.E2.80.93present:_Boston_Red_Sox
Particularly the fourth paragraph.
I hate Wikipedia.
Can’t use it for research, and it sucks at links. Click the link in the first reply, then scroll down to the Sox section of his career.
JD has a career OBP of .392
I would not mind that at the top of the order. J.D. Drew has done a hell of a lot more in his career that Jacoby Ellsbury.
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