Theo: George Kottaras is the backup catcher
by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2009 6:16 PM EDT
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When Theo speaks, you listen. Now Theo says George Kottaras will be Jason Varitek's backup now that Josh Bard was cut:
General Manager Theo Epstein says that the backup job "is George Kottaras's to lose.''
...
Kottaras is out of minor league options, meaning another team could claim him if the Red Sox tried to send him down to Triple-A. Kottaras successfully caught Tim Wakefield late last week, perhaps clearing the way for this move with Bard.
Kottaras said yesterday that he hoped that session gave the team the confidence to trust him as the backup.
"I was proud of the way that I caught it," Kottaras said. "I got my opportunity, and hopefully they can go based on that.
Kottaras is hitting .286 with one home run and two RBI in 14 spring at-bats. The 25-year-old hit .243 with 22 home runs -- and a .348 OBP -- last year at Pawtucket.
I guess that squashes any thoughts of a trade. Dusty Brown is also on the outside looking in. Kottaras must be one happy dude now that he's got a major league job. Congrats to Georgy for finally break through the AAAA barrier.
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For every bomb Kottaras hits,
I’m hitting a yager bomb
Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.
by sox-inda-south on Mar 19, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple things.
First, yes, Bard was hitting well. But his D fell out from under him last year – maybe he wasn’t showing enough improvement there this spring to justify a roster spot.
Second, as Mazz pointed out, Bard and Tek’s splits make them lousy compliments to each other.
All of this bodes quite well for Kottaras, who hit .243 with 22 home runs, a .348 on-base percentage and .802 OPS at Triple A Pawtucket last year. Kottaras’s productivity from the left side fits well in tandem with Varitek, who struggled badly from the left side last season.
Bard batted just .135 from the left side last year with an OPS of .427, numbers far worse than even those of Varitek.
I’ll still like to grab a Salty or Montero.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 6:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And apparently he wasn’t very good as a LH in 07 either.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mazz'
point is stupid as usual. Bard was injured last year, and just plain bad from both sides of the plate. He is somewhat better as a righty, but he hit 333 against righties in 06. I think the thing that is worrisome is that Kotteras is untested-he might totally fail. Since he is the better hitter against righties, this would force Tek to play a lot, which is an offensive hole. At least if Bard put up career average numbers (not a given) that is 280/250 R/L split, with a veteran knowledge behind the plate.
by Buzzy on Mar 18, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So three years ago he wasn't a bad LH hitter
thus Mazz’s point is stupid?
And batting average? Really? I thought you were a stat-head…
: )
Here’s Neyer’s take:
For all the talk — by me, among others — about the Red Sox maybe needing to trade for a young catcher this winter, Kottaras isn’t exactly chopped liver. He turns 26 this spring, and his career minor-league stats include a .366 OBP and .444 slugging percentage. He didn’t make Baseball America’s list of the Red Sox’s top 30 prospects, yet I suspect there will be starting catchers in the majors this season who don’t have Kottaras’ talents.
That’s not really the question, though. The question is simply whether Kottaras or Bard is more valuable to the Red Sox right now. Considering that Bard is past his prime, doesn’t seem to handle Wakefield well, and has career hitting stats no better than Kottaras’ 2009 projection … well, this actually looks like one of the easier decisions Theo Epstein will make all spring.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
yes…but:
1)07+08 are a sample size nearly the same as 06.
2)I simply think Bard is still a better offensive player than Tek, and had to hit in an absolutely cavernous PETCO
3)I read the Neyer this afternoon. I usually agree with him, but not in this case. It is very difficult to project how a catcher will hit in his first year in the majors. Thus, the projection is, in this case, worth a lot less. His defense is also a big question mark. Both of these things suggest Tek will play a lot this year. Something that gives me nightmares.
It is not a big deal I guess. Not like Bard was a savior of anything. However I find the move a bit puzzling. I suppose this was planned after Tek resigned. Bard was just insurance.
by Buzzy on Mar 18, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is it harder to project for a catcher than other players?
by BTLove on Mar 18, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Bard's 2006
His BABIP that year was .374 (at least according to this site). That’s pretty damn lucky.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1)BT-catchers usually take longer at the MLB level to reach hitting potential. Like Tek Or Shoppach. Of course there are the Mauers, but generally it takes a bit longer. I would also be weary of any projection on a jump from the minors to the majors. It makes sense that a projection from one year to the next at the MLB level is easier-the data you already have is against MLB competition.
2)Tommy-sure 2006 wont be repeated. If you are arguing that he is worse offensively then Tek that wont fly. A 30 year old Bard will out hit a 37 year old Tek. Even PECOTA projects him as better this year, and that is with his putrid 2008 numbers in the program. So…what’s your point?
by Buzzy on Mar 19, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that relying on Bard's fluky 2006 season is misguided.
A .374 BABIP is not sustainable or repeatable.
Never said Tek is better than Bard with the stick. I don’t think anyone did. Bard is a better RH hitter, no doubt. LH, Tek has been better over the last two years, though not by much.
Varitek is going to get most of the ABs this year. Since he’s better against lefties than righties, and since most pitchers are righties, odds are that on Tek’s days off, the other catcher would be facing more righties than lefties. So it might be good to have someone who is at least an improvement over Tek against righties. Bard isn’t. Kotteras probably will be.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 19, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand all of these things
I never said that Bard = Bard2006. My point was that looking at his lefty righty splits by looking at 2007/2008 are just as misguided. Btw-his career BAPIP is 30 points higher from the right side where it is harder to beat out close plays. All I am saying is that Bard is superior offensively than Tek (who, as we recall, has also had his flukey BAPIP issues of late-see month by month 2007). I am just upset that we paid him 8+million dollars to continue to allow me to go walk my dog when I know he is up in the half-inning.
by Buzzy on Mar 19, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
another thing-
Tommy-your claims about Bard vs Tek lefty and righty are incorrect. See Drug’s post below. A good argument can be made that Bard is better LH than Tek from either side.
by Buzzy on Mar 19, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw that.
He’s including the 2006 stats, which I view (and viewed at the time) as pretty fluky.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 19, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing fluky
fits perfectly with the years following, except for the fact that 2007 is fluky. We have been through this with his BAPIPs in 2007-two outlier months with BAPIPs more than 1.5 standard deviation from the mean! Take those away, and 2006=2007=2008=sucky Tek that we know today.
by Buzzy on Mar 20, 2009 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant Bard's 2006 was fluky, and Drug's three-year analysis includes it.
.374 BABIP.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 20, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All right, so Tek can play against the lefties and Kottaras can play against the righties. But that makes Kottaras the starter and Tek the backup, which isn’t going to happen, and while I’m ok with Kottaras as the backup if he can hit .240 with 20 HR and a .350 OBP, that’s not good enough from the starter. And you know Tek isn’t going to put up those numbers either.
by RSNexile on Mar 18, 2009 7:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
.240 w/ 20 HR and .350 OBP would be great from our starter. Assuming 400 AB’s, that would probably be about a .450 SLG. An .800 OPS wouldn’t put him in the All Star game, but it would be right around 10th in the league for catchers.
by BTLove on Mar 18, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
10th in a leage of 14
By any reasonable standard, that’s not “great.”
by RSNexile on Mar 18, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's also not great in a L-E-A-G-U-E of 14
by RSNexile on Mar 18, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering last season Tek and Cash combined for about a .311 OBP and 16 HRs, I’d be thrilled with a .350 OBP and 20 HRs from one of our catchers.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I was hoping for.
Varitek was actually really good from the right side last year (.863 OPS), so together they could be plenty good enough.
by BTLove on Mar 18, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But
we can’t rely on Kottaras for anything-completely untested in the highest learning curve position in the game.
by Buzzy on Mar 18, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but Josh Bard is no good. He has never really been good, and I doubt he would hit significantly better than Tek or Kottaras.
by BTLove on Mar 18, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tek had only 95 AB as a right-handed hitter in 2008
And he hit .284 AVG/.378 OBP/.484 SLG. The problem is he had 3.5 times as many AB as a left-handed hitter in ‘08: .201 AVG/.293 OBP/.323 SLG. His OPS was .862 from the right side and .616 from the left (overall .672). As RSNexile noted, a performance platoon would make the untested Kottaras the starter. But that won’t happen.
Before we start talking about what a great righty hitter Tek is, here’s what he has done from the right side over the last three seasons combined: .258 AVG/.355 OBP/.426 SLG (.781 OPS) in 345 AB. Those numbers ar OK. But he’ll likely get about three times as many AB from the left side. In other words, Tek will be lucky to hit .230 AVG/.330 OBP/.375 SLG. He’ll probably put up worse numbers.
I agree with Buzzy about Kottaras. No one knows what to expect from him. I hope he is good because Tek stinks. There is no question that Bard is now a better offensive catcher than Tek. From 2006-2008, Bard hit as good as a lefty (his bad side) as Tek did as a righty (his “good” side). here are Bard’s three-year stats as a left-handed hitter: .271 AVG/.350 OBP/.384 SLG in 580 AB. (He had an .855 OPS from the right side). Another thing to factor in when comparing Bard’s hitting to Tek’s the past three years. Varitek played in Fenway, a hitter’s park, while Bard played in Petco, a severe pitcher’s park.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 18, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think the choice was between Tek and Bard.
Theo and Tito were choosing between Bard and Kottaras. Unfortunately Tek was on the team no matter what. Tek is obviously a better hitter from right side at this point and Kottaras is a lefty. Together these two will be better than the Bard/Tek combo. Throw in the ability to catch a knuckleball and Kottaras is clearly the better choice. I hope its a pure platoon, but unfortunately it looks like they’ll be giving Tek most of the AB’s unless Kottaras pulls a Kelly Shoppach.
by BTLove on Mar 19, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said it was
I was just answering these two points:
Varitek was actually really good from the right side last year (.863 OPS), so together they could be plenty good enough.
and
but Josh Bard is no good. He has never really been good, and I doubt he would hit significantly better than Tek or Kottaras.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BT
you are wrong re the numbers. Bard is a better hitter than Tek, no doubt about it. See the stats and the projections. Tek is probably overall more valuable to the team, due to defense and familiarity.
by Buzzy on Mar 19, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Bard is better than Tek with the bat.
I just don’t think he will be so much better as to outweigh the other things (as you say). But I’m not really interested in arguing about that.
The question is; who will pair better with Tek? At this point it is given that Tek will be our starting catcher and receive at least half the AB’s. So how can we maximize the results of those AB’s and the remaining ones? By keeping Kottaras, it gives Tito a reason to devise a platoon where Kottaras gets significant AB’s against right handed pitchers and Tek bats against all lefty’s. We want Tek to half as large a percent of his AB’s from the right as possible. I don’t think that will be maximized with Bard because he has similar splits (though obviously better numbers).
by BTLove on Mar 19, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
well-we will see about Kottaras. I hope he hits well early, so there is smoe pressure to have him hit more against righties. Also, I wonder if Tito pinch hits for Tek a lot this year. Problem is, Kottaras is not good defensively, so not a good late game replacement.
by Buzzy on Mar 20, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd for truth (and stats)
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 19, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they will make a trade. if not, damn it i’m sick of having to carry a shit catcher for wakefield. sucks.
by matzushocka45 on Mar 18, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m fine with our catcher for Wake. In fact he makes our other catcher look like the “shit.” (and not in a good way)
by Schulz on Mar 19, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s all just Theo distracting the fans from the inevitable…Dougie’s gonna be flown in by helicopter right before Wakefield’s first start
"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby
by nepats108 on Mar 19, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dougie is too big to fit in the helicopter
And too fat for the helicopter to get off the ground. But, most importantly, Dougie sucks. Kevin Cash, who couldn’t hit, was a huge upgrade over Dougie offensively and defensively. Ol’ Chicken Parm hit .193 AVG/.261 OBP/.342 SLG his last year in Boston.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
Mirabelli hit that in his second-to-last season. His last season he hit .202 AVG/.278 OBP/.360 SLG, before being cut. His last three years, he had OPS+’s of 87, 51, and 63. He hit like a pitcher and threw like a girl. Aside from the “Dougie’s Going Deep” stuff, there’s nothing positive anyone can say about him after 2004.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like Bard's last two years.
Just saying.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 19, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
something positive to say about Dougie
Wakefield was never better and never will be better than when Mirabelli was catching him…yeah he had some decent games with Cash behind the plate, but he was at his best with Dougie completing the battery
"Well let me just quote the late-great Colonel Sanders, who said...'I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.' "
-Ricky Bobby
by nepats108 on Mar 19, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh, the myth of Doug Mirabelli
Wakefield’s best season was 1995—with Mike Macfarlane catching the bulk of his starts. Wake had a very good 2002. Belli caught 14 of 15 starts, but only 6 of 30 relief appearances. As for Wake’s other years since 2002, he was no better with Chicken Parm behind the plate than he was with another catcher. In fact, last year with Cash was as good or better than any of the Belli years after 2002.
Here’s the BAA with catchers that caught at least 20 games with Wake on the mound (by OPS):
Macfarlane – .232 AVG/.300 OBP/.373 SLG (.673 OPS)
Cash – .238 AVG/.308 OBP/.402 SLG (.710 OPS)
Mirabelli – .246 AVG/.312 OBP/.405 SLG (.717 OPS)
Hatteberg - .245 AVG/.325 OBP/.410 SLG (.735 OPS)
Haselman – .254 AVG/.351 OBP/.419 SLG (.770 OPS)
Varitek – .259 AVG/.339 OBP/.440 SLG (.779 OPS)
Slaught – .303 AVG/.391 OBP/.452 SLG (.843 OPS)
Stanley – .293 AVG/.364 OBP/.484 SLG (.848 OPS)
Aside from 2001 and 2004, Mirabelli was even more useless at the plate than Varitek is now.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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