"[Jed Lowrie] will be a 40 to 50 double guy" - Peter Gammons, Baseball Tonight
What? Reeeally? That's high praise for a guy we haven't seen much out of yet.
7 months ago
Randy Booth
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It's not completely wacky
He got 25 2B’s last year in about 260 ABs. It’s not a huge leap to 40-50 2Bs’s over a full season from there.
by lone1c on Mar 18, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
W/ healthy wrist, too.
He’ll get there easy.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 18, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it’s just me, but 50 doubles sounds crazy to me. Let me do some research…
by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, my research concludes:
Only two players hit 50+ doubles last year: our own MVP Dustin Pedroia and the O’s Brian Roberts.
27 players hit 40+ doubles, including Kevin Youkilis (43).
I guess 40 is doable for Lowrie, but 50 sounds like a huge stretch.
by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More searching:
There have been only 27 instances of 50+ double seasons since 2000. Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000.
Ever? Only 86 times in history has a player hit 50 doubles.
Ok, I’m done messing around with Baseball-Reference’s PlayIndex…
by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But think of it this way:
He had 25 doubles in about 260 ABs, as lone1c pointed out already. If he plays 150 games, he’ll get a lot more than twice the ABs, so 50 doubles isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Now recall that he put up last year’s numbers with a fractured wrist. If he’s healthy, that could work either way for him — he could get more doubles because with a healthy wrist, he’ll make solid contact more often, or he could get fewer doubles because some number of the doubles he got last year will actually leave the ballpark now for homers.
40 doubles is eminently possible for Lowrie. 50 is less likely, obviously, but it’s not impossible or even improbable.
by RSNexile on Mar 18, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie's career minor league numbers
are fairly close to Pedroia’s, for what that’s worth.
Lowrie:
.287 / .381 / .446, .827 OPS, 4 seasons
Pedroia:
.308 / .392 / .454, .846 OPS, 3 seasons
I think that 40 doubles is certainly doable.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on Mar 19, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially playing at Fenway, a doubles ballpark.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With 6 2B’s, 2 3B’s and 2 HR’s in ST, I’m reading for something big.
by BTLove on Mar 20, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie
I am optimistic because I believe he is a very good hitter and will show that with a healthy wrist. He could possibly hit 40-50 doubles a year.
Looking at his minor league numbers he has played in 336 games and has a total of 94 doubles. If we assume he plays 150 games a season he would hit 42 doubles.
by drabidea on Mar 18, 2009 5:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who cares what Gammons says?
He’s a rumor guy, not a stat guy. That said, both Keith Law and Rob Neyer (both stat guys) really like Lowrie.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 18, 2009 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie = John Valentin.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2009 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You could do a lot worse
And any significant upgrade on offense would cost a lot more, in terms of both salary and prospects in a trade.
by lone1c on Mar 18, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
watch out
Could be another Gammons shortstop curse. A few years ago (in 2006, I think), he picked Bobby Crosby as his darkhorse MVP candidate.
by colin on Mar 19, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm more interested in his OBP
If he’s the 9 hitter, which is what it looks like, he may not get the opportunities to drive in runs behind Varitek. Certainly if he continues his gap-hitting ways, he will move up in the order and do some damage. But in the 9 hole, if he can take a few more walks and get his OBP into the high 300s, it will bode well for when the lineup turns over. This kid’s got plenty of potential. I’m just not sure what kind of major league hitter he will be yet.
by jsmails on Mar 25, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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