"[Jed Lowrie] will be a 40 to 50 double guy" - Peter Gammons, Baseball Tonight
What? Reeeally? That's high praise for a guy we haven't seen much out of yet.
almost 3 years ago
Randy Booth
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It's not completely wacky
He got 25 2B’s last year in about 260 ABs. It’s not a huge leap to 40-50 2Bs’s over a full season from there.
Ok, my research concludes:
Only two players hit 50+ doubles last year: our own MVP Dustin Pedroia and the O’s Brian Roberts.
27 players hit 40+ doubles, including Kevin Youkilis (43).
I guess 40 is doable for Lowrie, but 50 sounds like a huge stretch.
But think of it this way:
He had 25 doubles in about 260 ABs, as lone1c pointed out already. If he plays 150 games, he’ll get a lot more than twice the ABs, so 50 doubles isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Now recall that he put up last year’s numbers with a fractured wrist. If he’s healthy, that could work either way for him — he could get more doubles because with a healthy wrist, he’ll make solid contact more often, or he could get fewer doubles because some number of the doubles he got last year will actually leave the ballpark now for homers.
40 doubles is eminently possible for Lowrie. 50 is less likely, obviously, but it’s not impossible or even improbable.
Lowrie's career minor league numbers
are fairly close to Pedroia’s, for what that’s worth.
Lowrie:
.287 / .381 / .446, .827 OPS, 4 seasons
Pedroia:
.308 / .392 / .454, .846 OPS, 3 seasons
I think that 40 doubles is certainly doable.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Especially playing at Fenway, a doubles ballpark.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Mar 19, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Lowrie
I am optimistic because I believe he is a very good hitter and will show that with a healthy wrist. He could possibly hit 40-50 doubles a year.
Looking at his minor league numbers he has played in 336 games and has a total of 94 doubles. If we assume he plays 150 games a season he would hit 42 doubles.
Who cares what Gammons says?
He’s a rumor guy, not a stat guy. That said, both Keith Law and Rob Neyer (both stat guys) really like Lowrie.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
You could do a lot worse
And any significant upgrade on offense would cost a lot more, in terms of both salary and prospects in a trade.
watch out
Could be another Gammons shortstop curse. A few years ago (in 2006, I think), he picked Bobby Crosby as his darkhorse MVP candidate.
I'm more interested in his OBP
If he’s the 9 hitter, which is what it looks like, he may not get the opportunities to drive in runs behind Varitek. Certainly if he continues his gap-hitting ways, he will move up in the order and do some damage. But in the 9 hole, if he can take a few more walks and get his OBP into the high 300s, it will bode well for when the lineup turns over. This kid’s got plenty of potential. I’m just not sure what kind of major league hitter he will be yet.
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