Who should bat 6th for the Red Sox in '09?
by Randy Booth on Feb 21, 2009 1:53 PM EST
in News
Email
PrintThe OTM lineup, as of now:
1. Ellsbury, Jacoby
2. Pedroia, Dustin
3. Ortiz, David
4. Youkilis, Kevin
5. Bay, Jason
And the new poll:
17 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
How's this for a lineup?
Our team is so scary that Mike Lowell, a sure bet for 20 HR and 40 doubles if he’s healthy, can hit seventh.
Worst case scenario.
Lowell and Papi can’t recover and loose significant plaing time. Our lineup becomes:
CF. Ellsbury
2B. Pedroia
3B. Youk
RF. Drew
LF. Bay
SS. Lowrie
DH. Baldelli
1B. Kotsay
C. Tek
OR
CF. Ellsbury
2B. Pedroia
1B. Youk
RF. Drew
LF. Bay
3B. Lowrie
DH. Baldelli
C. Tek
SS. Lugo
They’re not terrible, but I’m gonna go ahead and knock on wood, and hope that at least Lowell OR Papi is healthy and swinging.
Both are definitely better than league average
Then you factor in our rotation, with Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and some combination of Wake, Penny, and Smoltz, with Masterson, Buchholz, and Bowden available for spot starts if need be.
And the pen is pretty good too.
If the Sox are healthy this year, there isn’t a team in the majors that can compete with them. If they’re not healthy, they’re still contenders. That’s a hell of a job by Theo and company.
The scary part is that most people think a .336 OBP guy should be leading off.
The lineup looks less deep when we don’t have a hitter who still needs time to develop in the 1 slot.
Youk, Drew, Bay, Ortiz, Lowell, Pedroia, Lowrie, Ells, Tek
Pretty substantial drop-off after 6th. Lowrie might be good for 7-12 HR, and 30-40 2B. Ells steal bases so Tek doesn’t hit into double plays.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
The scarier part is that our manager will probably do put him at leadoff too.
Are you advocating Pedroia 6th?
OBP ranking, maybe.
I love that most of OTM’s readers aren’t SABR-friendly. And OBP is a really simple, common stat, too.
Lowrie probably gets less HR's
But more doubles. He hit 25 in 260 AB’s (a faster clip than even Pedroia’s). That assumes, of course, that he gets to play more or less every day.
The folks who want Ells to leadoff
(myself included) foresee a big improvement in OBP. If he gets up to .370-ish, he’ll be a stellar lead-off guy.
Put me in the category that the best OBP guy isn’t necessarily the best lead-off hitter. Yes, you want OBP out of your lead-off man, but not at the expense of sacrificing power in the middle of the lineup.
For example, this guy was the best OBP guy in Sox history, but I think he would’ve been wasted in the lead-off hole.
Drew isn’t exactly “splendid” but I still think his bat would be wasted in the lead-off spot.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
If Ells improves that much I would be down.
But I just don’t think its realistic, or smart, to count on such a big improvement. Simply, he is the 7th best hitter on the team right now (and maybe 8th). Why give your 7th best hitter the most AB’s? It just doesn’t make sense.
I understand the idea of wanting guys on base for Drew, but you are doing it at the expense of having guys on base for Pedroia, Ortiz, Youk, and Bay.
I don't think it's unrealistic to think Ells can pick up 30 points.
Check his minor league stats, he’s always had good patience.
I think that wrist injury he had in early June really killed his season – his OBP was @ .385 before that, and .270 for the two months after.
Fifteen points in avg and twenty points in walks, he’s at .370. I think he can do it.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I guuess I'm not saying that he can't do it,
or even that he won’t. My point is that we should not base our lineup decisions on an assumption of such drastic improvement. The projections range from .341-.359 for OBP. I think those are fairly realistic.
The flaw in people’s thinking is that many people believe that a fast player is only valuable as a leadoff man, when the exact opposite is true. Stealing bases in front of power hitters is considerably less valuable than in front of singles hitters. Let him “manufacture” runs with Lowrie down at the bottom of the lineup.
About this poll
There’s a bit of a problem with platooning the J.L.’s like that.
I think a lot of people might be more inclined to bat Lowrie up the order than Lugo—I know I would, at least.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
- Shane Victorino lands role on ‘Hawaii Five-0′
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
