Top 3 Things to Watch this Red Sox Spring Training

by Randy Booth on Feb 14, 2009 8:38 PM EST in News

1) The health of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell

Who cares about the catcher situation? This is what matters. If David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are healthy, the Red Sox are a team that makes the playoffs. Ortiz is just a year removed from his best OPS+ season ever (171 in '07), so please don't say he's washed up. Lowell is also a year removed from a World Series MVP trophy. Both are aging, but if they're healthy the middle of the Red Sox order is going to be dynamite.

2) The "low-risk, high-reward" signings

We know John Smoltz won't be ready for awhile, but let's keep our eyes on guys like Brad Penny and Takashi Saito. Penny and Saito are both "feeling good" (the most overused term in the history of Spring Training, by the way) but the results on the mound are what matters. If Penny and Saito can't get out Northeastern Huskies batters, then we know we've got a potential problem. But if these guys are lights out in both spring training and the regular season, how can anyone doubt Theo Epstein's strategy? There could be a day in baseball when you're more valuable after a bad season than a great season...

3) The shortstop battle

Jed Lowrie or Julio Lugo? We'll find out soon enough. Lugo, the overpaid veteran, has apparently been working hard this offseason trying to earn his job back. Meanwhile, Lowrie is recovering from a wrist injury that bothered him for a chunk of the '08 season. This is, essentially, a win-win situation for the Red Sox. If they both do well, perhaps the Sox could trade Lugo and install Lowrie as the fulltime shortstop. If one or the other struggles, we have a solid backup. The only way it looks really bad is if they both have horrible Spring Trainings ... but that couldn't happen, right? Right?

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The end kind of made it a little dark...

But they should be fine. We’ll be fine. Don’t worry. Heh heh….

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Feb 14, 2009 10:08 PM EST reply actions

What is the definition of "Lugo working harder"?

Does he make more faces while starring at the pitcher longer??

by NG on Feb 15, 2009 7:35 AM EST reply actions

Not like Lugo could bring us any impact talent in return.

But sadly I don’t think Jed can stick at the position long term.

Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.

by sox-inda-south on Feb 15, 2009 10:05 AM EST reply actions

If Lugo has a really good spring, we could get some pretty good talent in exchange. Lugo, when he’s actually hitting the ball and throwing the ball accurately, is a pretty good shortstop. I’m sure there’s a team out there that would take a chance on him if he plays well.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Feb 15, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Might not be able to long-term.

But I think he proved last season that he can handle the position, so I think until he begins to age a bit and loses range, his bat will make him valuable enough at the position to excuse average or slightly-below defense.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Feb 15, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

It's certainly not my decision, but...

I’m pretty much going to need Lugo to convince everyone he can hit like it’s 2006 in Tampa (124 OPS+) in order for him to have a shot at unseating Lowrie.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Feb 15, 2009 11:56 AM EST reply actions

ESPNEWS had him penciled in as the starting SS this morning.

Nearly made me knock over my cereal bowl, which would have pissed me off even more.

by bdalebs on Feb 15, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

I have a feeling

that if Lugo plays well during spring training.It is going to be like Coco/Ellsbury all over again. They will split time at SS enough to build up Lugo’s value enough that we can get someone in a trade for him. That is of course if he is any good in spring training.

by drabidea on Feb 16, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Ortiz and Lowell

Even if they’re both less than healthy, I think the middle of the order is still ok. With Youk, Bay, and Drew (if he is healthy), we’d still have a better than average heart of the order — it’s what comes after them that I’d worry about.

But if Ortiz and Lowell are both healthy, then a lineup with them, the three guys mentioned above, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Lowrie without a broken hand (I really think Lugo is done) is arguably the best in the majors, even with whatever rally killing machine plays catcher.

by RSNexile on Feb 15, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions

We prefer momentum sucker to rally killer

You see, even Pujols kills rallies once in a while. But to do so while sucking momentum means you’re really, really bad. Not replacement level bad, but you couldn’t do much worse trying to hit the ball with your bare hands.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 15, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I wonder what kind of contract Pujols has

Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.

by sox-inda-south on Feb 15, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

To find out this info

Go to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and search for the team the player’s on.
[Does this]
Pujols has a 7 year $100 million deal, and is signed through 2010, with a team option for 2011 (a bargain $16 million, with a $5 million buyout).

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Feb 15, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

If St. Louis can't compete

between now and 2011, I’ve gotta think Pujols is going to pursue greener pastures. …and now I’m drooling.

by Schulz on Feb 19, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

I would say the health of JD Drew as well

by Red Sox #1 Fan on Feb 15, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions

Drew is my biggest worry

Even after the off-season, Drew isn’t 100%. Back injuries are tricky. Most players don’t come back from serious back injuries, and Drew is fargile in the best of times. Theo may need to find another OF, one who can play RF at Fenway.

According to all accounts, Ortiz’s wrist just needed rest. (Pat Burrell came back strong from a similar wrist injury). Mike Lowell just needs to get back into game shape. As long as he has ne pain in the hip, he should be fine. Lowell was able to play with the injury until the pain was too great. That shouldn’t be a problem after the surgery, and Lowell’s blazing speed shouldn’t be affected.

I have no worries about Beckett. I expect Dice-K to regress. I have some questions about how Lester responds after the heavy workload in 2008. But, to me, Drew is the Sox’ biggest—and least talked about—question coming into the 2009 season.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Feb 15, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

True that, DD.

Drew is a major concern, and I think what people forget with Lowell is that his rate stats last year were the same as his first in Boston, which we were all pretty ecstatic with I think.

I think we have to face the distinct possibility, as you mention, that Drew won’t be able to play any more than he did last season, and it could be a bit less. Baldelli is nice short-term insurance, in terms of the smallish dropoff in quality of performance, but f. I hate that Wilkerson is currently our top option other than that.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Feb 15, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

Someone needs to do a comparison of Drew and Junior Griffey.

Both had amazing potential, and if they didn’t get injured do GD often, they’d both be legends.

by bdalebs on Feb 15, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

Junior Griffey is a legend.

He was the best-al around player in baseball for ten years before catching the injury bug.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 16, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Drew was epic at Lowndes. I was supposed to attend LHS before the Air Force decided to move my dad, and my family...

and that town talks about two things: high school football (Go Vikes! Wildcats suck!) and the Drews, specifically J.D. He was supposed to be the second coming of Mickey Mantle. Then again, so was Rocco…

by bdalebs on Feb 16, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

Lowell was able to play with the injury

But playing like crap, remember? About Papi and Drew you’re right, but I think Mikey is a concern as well.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 15, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Lowell is less of a question than Drew

Lowell was in pain last year, which hampered his swing. Defensively it didn’t hurt him as much. Now, by all accounts, he is pain free. In my opinion, the only question about Lowell (age issues aside) is how long it takes for him to get into game shape. He may not be ready by the end of spring training. Once he is ready, I’m not worried.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I agree that Drew is a bigger problem than Lowell

But I am concerned about his condition, and if he’s not ready to play we really don’t have other option.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 16, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Just in case...

What are our options at third if Lowell does crash?
Lowrie at 3B, Lugo at SS??? ahh
Youk at 3B and Kotsay/Lars/Bailey/Carter

Friendship is like peeing on yourself: everyone can see it, but only you get the warm feeling that it brings.

by sox-inda-south on Feb 16, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions

Pretty much

Although I don’t think the Sox will rush Lars.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Lowrie to 3rd, and Diaz at short.

It’s not a long-term solution, but I look forward to seeing Diaz flash the leather.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 16, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

Argenis Diaz, that is.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 16, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

Good save.

Who exactly would be the other Diaz?

by bdalebs on Feb 16, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

I was just trying to be clear.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 16, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

All right. I thought I had missed a possible option.

by bdalebs on Feb 17, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

Hey

Don’t knock the Northeastern Huskies hitters. Mike Lyon is a beast!

Anyway, I think that if either Lowell or Ortiz is healthy and swinging, we’ll be in good shape. I think our strength this year is pitching. We have 6 quality starters (here comes the Wake bashing) even though one won’t be ready until july. We also have Buccholz, Bowden, and Masterson in case of emergency. Our bullpen is as deep as I’ve ever seen it. Pap, Oki, Ramirez, Masterson, Saito, Delcarmen. Those are all great pitchers. I don’t see us loosing many leads in the late innings this year.

by Schulz on Feb 19, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions