Spring Training Stories I'm Watching

by BTLove on Feb 10, 2009 10:47 PM EST

I personally hate steroids talk, so I thought we could steer the discussion towards actual baseball.

Pitchers and catchers report in two days, Youk is already there and we got an exhibition against BC in two weeks so its almost time to start looking at some actual baseball scores and make conclusions about our team. There aren't really too many storylines to follow, but this what I'll be looking at:

1. Backup catcher. Allan wrote a really good primer a few days ago discussing the catcher situation. There was no real consensus as to whom we'll open the season with as Tek's backup from everyone in that thread. Personally, I'm rooting for Kottaras. He's out of options so if we send him down he might be gone; he has experience with the knuckle and if platooned correctly with Tek they actually could be effective (meaning limit Tek's at bats from the left side).

2. Who will be the 25th man? With Mark Kotsay out for the first month or so of the season we have a roster spot up for grabs. The safe money has to be on Brad Wilkerson, but I think if Rocco shows that he can be dependable as the 4th outfielder they might go with Bailey or Carter; guys that can actually be productive with the bat.

3. How will the bullpen shake out? who will be the number 2 behind Paps? will Saito's arm be ready to go (he says it already is)? will Masterson keep it up? and I'm excited to see Ramon Ramirez in action. I think the order will be pretty fluid all year, but it'll be interesting to see how Tito lines it up to start the year; will he trust the new guys?

4. The young pitchers. Bucholz will be back in action trying to regain some confidence. Bowden will get some starts to show his stuff too. Neither will make the big club out of spring training, but a good performance could get them up in the majors as soon as someone is injured or ineffective.

5. Brad Penny. Is he healthy? will he be effective?

6. Everyone else's health. Ortiz's wrist, Lowell's hip, JD Drew in general. As we all know, there are a bunch of health questions around this team.

7. Lars! we'll get a look at Lars Anderson with the big boys. If we performs, we might see a mid-season call-up when/if Papi or Mikey ends up on the DL.

I think we'll have a hell of a team. BP projects us to win 98 games and win the AL East by one game. I'm about ready to watch some baseball.

Any other stories you guys are watching?

Tweet Comment 25 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I've got a few.

The WBC-injury watch. I’m a little worried about Dice-K, in particular. Who else is playing, besides Ped-ROY-MVP-ia?

I’m looking forward to “getting to know” Smoltz. I’ve always admired him from afar, but I never really knew anything about him other than stats and highlight reels. From what I’ve read recently he seems like a pretty smart guy.

Jason Bay. I’m looking forward to what he can do.

And SS. Will/can Julio step it up?

And to echo you, I’m also really curious about Penny. I’ve read how when he and Beckett were on the Marlins, they really pushed each other. I like the idea of another piss-and-vinegar guy in the Sox rotation.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 10, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions

The SS situation could be interesting.

I think we’ve all assumed that Lowrie will start, but what happens if he sucks in the spring and Lugo looks competent? He was significantly better last year than 2007, when he had a career low BABIP of .265. I’m not saying I think he’s gonna be good, but he is a veteran and Lowrie is young, so anything could happen.

by BTLove on Feb 11, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

If Baseball Prospectus is to be believed

They’re predicting that we’d do almost as well if we started a Little Leaguer at short:

Julio Lugo 457 AB / .255 / 55 R / 4 HR / 38 RBI / 21 SB / .325 OBP / .347 SLG / 4.5 VORP
Jed Lowrie 416 AB / .260 / 49 R / 9 HR / 48 RBI / 3 SB / .341 OBP / .432 SLG / 14.6 VORP

That’s some serious crack they’re smoking—they’re predicting a platoon at SS, with Lugo substituting for Lowell at 3rd—as well as playing about 16 games at 2nd.

On the other hand, this means that there’s some serious upside potential (for Lowrie at least) to look much better than all the predictions suggest. (Having an injury for half of the games you play when you only play half a season must muck up the prediction algorithms wicked hard.)

by lone1c on Feb 12, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions

I think they're predicting a Lowell injury.

If Lowell does get injured we’ll be playing Lowrie and Lugo as BP projects. More importantly though, they do think that Lowrie will be much better than Lugo with a .773 OPS. I can for sure live with that.

by BTLove on Feb 12, 2009 4:45 AM EST up reply actions

But isn't that a problem?

If Lowrie’s OPS is 101 points higher than Lugo’s, why is Lugo getting more playing time? If there’s that much of a difference in their bats, why not use the productive bat more? (Say, 65-35 instead of 50-50?)

by lone1c on Feb 12, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions

Hopefully we can do that.

But I think BP is projecting a situation where say Lowrie is getting most at bats, with Lugo subbing for him and also taking some turns for Lowell at 3B (or put Lowrie at 3B). Also, Lowrie could get hurt himself and force Lugo into more time (or Dusty could get hurt). They are basically giving Lugo all the AB’s that Lowrie, Lowell, or Pedroia might miss, while also taking into account some kind shared-time situation at SS when they are all healthy.

But I agree that if Lowrie is playing well, we should limit Lugo’s AB’s as much as possible.

by BTLove on Feb 12, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

That's not what they're saying, actually.

BP is predicting a 50-50 spilt at shortstop, Lugo 10 percent each at 2B and 3B, and Lowrie 15 percent at 3B.

That’s why I think they’ve gotten into the good stuff in making these predictions.

by lone1c on Feb 12, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, you're right.

And I agree with you. I can see Lugo getting significant PA’s this year, but in the role that I described above. I wonder if they are predicting a Lowrie injury or Tito deciding to split the time between them?

by BTLove on Feb 12, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

BC exhibition game

I thought they weren’t going to do that anymore.

"and THAT happened" -John Mayer announcing Pedrioa at-bat in Tokyo

by DJDP23 on Feb 11, 2009 6:50 AM EST reply actions

I'm watching:

How many of the first 50 batters to face Wakefield will hit homeruns? How long before he is forced out of the game due to obvious (to me) age-related incompetence?

by NG on Feb 11, 2009 7:57 AM EST reply actions

Wow man

Did Tim Wakefield sleep with your wife?

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Feb 11, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Really.

NG hates him to an extent where it is almost something personal.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Feb 11, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

He hates Wake...

like I hate Pennywise the Dancing Clown. And I hate him for the sixteen years of nightmares that he’s given me.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Feb 11, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Beware

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Feb 11, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

I hate you.

I hate Stephen King. And I hate Tim Curry.

Speaking of Tim Curry, not only was he freaky in ‘It’ but he was pretty scary in ‘Legend.’ Well, for a little kid he was anyway.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Feb 12, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

I just had to... :)

I haven’t had nightmares in quite a while. But I’ve had a string of a whole week where I can clearly recall every dream.

Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!

by BoSox415 on Feb 14, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

This was pretty scary to me fifteen years ago...

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Feb 12, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

It is not hate but embarrassment really.

When Wakefield got blasted the last 2 or 3 games last year, I could see how simple his pitch was to hit. I mean I truly believe that I could have hit a homer off that little league caliber pitch. This is too embarrassing for my team to have such a has-been on/in the line-up, and it is very upsetting to me that he is STILL THERE THIS YEAR! However, I fully predict he will self destruct in a hail of embarrassing performances early on in this year. Some folks just do not know when the gig is up!

by NG on Feb 11, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like a pretty textbook case of PTSD.

Those last few Wake starts last year changed NG. The world is just shades of gray now (or at least until Wake and the Sox part ways; too bad he has a lifetime contract).

by BTLove on Feb 11, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions