Think we'll be better?

by BoSox415 on Feb 1, 2009 6:17 PM EST Comment 24 comments

MFY. A phrase it seems we've used more than usual, thanks to the Yankees seemingly endless spending on Tex, CC, and Burnett. We made much smaller signings, while spending a fraction of the amount the Yanks spent.

Aww, screw it. I can't write.

To the point: Assuming the Red Sox don't sign any more major leaguers this offseason, do you think that we will be better than the 2008 Red Sox were?

I think we are. All the Manny drama is over. We have basically the same line-up, but Jed-I and Papi will have healthy wrists (hopefully) and we have Kotsay to cover first if Youk has to slide over to third if Lowell gets hurt. We signed quite a few relievers, along with Smoltz and Penny as back-up starters. Outlook good?

Poll

Do you think the 2009 Red Sox will be better than the 2008 Sox?

Yes. We rebuilt, everyone is healthy, and we are ready to take on the American League East!

36 votes

No. We didn't get any younger, and the Yankees signed big expensive scary names.

8 votes

It's about the same. No dramatic changes.

20 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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Comments

It's all relative

I think the MFY improved more than we did, but they had a lot more room for improvement than we did. And we don’t know yet how another year of experience under their belts will affect the Rays’ young core group of players.

Our bullpen is going to be better this year, figure Tek couldn’t be much worse than he was last year, Lowrie will be improved by the mere fact of not having to play with a fractured hand, our rotation will be stronger and deeper, Ellsbury will be a little better, and everyone else will be about the same.

In the end, I think it all comes down to injuries. If Lowell and Smoltz come all the way back, if Penny and Drew can stay healthy, and no one else gets hurt, this is a 100 win team and the favorite to win the World Series. But that’s a lot of ifs. Still, I think this is about a 95 win team assuming a typical year for injuries.

by RSNexile on Feb 1, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's simple

If we’re healthy next season, we’re better than we were in 2008.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 1, 2009 10:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Better

The question is just about the Red Sox, not relative to our divisional rivals. Going player by player, I think we’ll be a little better than last year. I’ll indicate with a plus, minus, or nothing:
Ortiz: +
Tek:
Youk: -
Pedroia: -
Lowrie: +
Lowell: ++
Bay:
Ellsbury: +
Drew: -

Beckett: +
Lester: -
Dice-K: (Win-Loss will not improve, but overall he’ll be the same. – some luck, + some skill)
Wake:
5th Starter: +

Bullpen: +

All of these are just opinions. Feel free to give me yours.

by Schulz on Feb 2, 2009 12:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

And in the end, how are you really going to judge whether the Sox are better, worse, or the same?

If somehow everyone hit .300 with 30 HR, all the pitchers posted ERAs under 3.00, and the Sox only won 90 games, would they be better, worse, or the same as last year?

Much as we might like to pretend otherwise, the Sox don’t exist in a vacuum and their performance is directly affected by the quality of the teams they play against. They play 18 games a year against the Rays and the MFY, which means those teams have a disproportionate impact on the Sox’ performance. If they’re both significantly better, the Sox could field a better team and still not win more games than last year, and in the end, the only statistic that matters in terms of team performance is W/L.

by RSNexile on Feb 2, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If everyone hit .300 with 30 HR and all the pitchers posted sub-3 ERAs, the team would have 130 wins, not 90.

by Gnick on Feb 2, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Does no one here understand the concept of a counterfactual?

In a world where it’s possible for the Sox to all hit .300 with 30 HR and for all the pitchers to post sub-3 ERAs, are you claiming that it’s not possible for all the MFYs to hit .320 with 35 HR and all their pitchers to post sub-2.80 ERAs?

The point is very simple: the Sox could all post better numbers than they posted last year and still finish with a worse record if the teams they compete against have improved even more relative to them. If that were to happen, I guarantee you you won’t be saying at the end of the year that the Sox improved.

QED: improvement is relative and dependent on competitive context.

by RSNexile on Feb 2, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I get your point

But how our pitcher would be able to keep a sub-3 ERA while everyone is hitting .300 with 30 HRs?

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 2, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We won't pitch against ourselves, silly.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 2, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

He just said the MFY would hit .320 with 35 bombs. If the Rays hit .280 with 25 bombs and the Orioles and the Jays both hit .260 with 20 bombs everyone, that’s a pretty fucked up division.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 3, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a counterfactual

In point of fact, it may be extremely unlikely, but it is mathematically possible. But even that isn’t the point.

The point — and anyone who disputes this is delusional — is that if the teams we compete against have improved more than we have, we’re likely to win fewer games even if we’ve improved at every position by a substantial amount. So if the Sox put up unbelievable numbers but the MFY or Rays put up even better numbers, it doesn’t matter if the Sox players themselves are better than they were last year because the team is going to have a worse outcome. And really, what do you care if the Sox put up huge numbers but don’t win the World Series (which is kind of the whole point) or even miss the playoffs?

You can’t look at player improvement in a vacuum — it all comes down to wins and losses in the end.

by RSNexile on Feb 3, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with you

I was just being nitpicky

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 3, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sry everybody

I was going on an individual basis, rather than W-L in the context of our division. The Red Sox as an individual team, in my little make-believe vacuum will be better, IMO. As for how they will finish in the division, I guess that’s why they play the games isn’t it? I think for us to win the AL East, the Yankees need a significant injury or two (at least one of CC, AJ, Wang, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Tex), and the Rays need to not be so hot all year long. It’s going to take some luck. Realistically, these three teams could be ranked every possible way by the end of the season.

by Schulz on Feb 3, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the Yankees need a significant injury or two (at least one of CC, AJ, Wang, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Tex)

Posada? thats gotta be given, i wouldn’t call that significant if he was injured.

Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.

by DougieWentDeep on Feb 3, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

If he AND one of their front three pitchers went down, they’re in trouble. Is Wang an injury risk? He had a problem last year, but maybe he’s fully recovered. Other potential risks include Damon, Matsui, Posada, CC, AJ, and Jeter (wishful thinking, simply because of his age).

by Schulz on Feb 4, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To be honest I haven't felt like this Offseason was anything special.

Some big names left, albeit they probably couldn’t have contributed to the team anymore anyway (such as Schilling), and then the entire drama with Varitek had me checking the Red Sox site and Over the Monster less than usual. Frankly for me this has been one of the least exciting offseasons in a few years. Either way, it doesn’t matter: personally I’ve never liked speculation and I’m looking forward to February 25 when there will be less talk and more baseball.

Baseball is what’s it’s all about. We are fans who support a baseball team, we should stop trying to pretend we’re part of the Front Office.

Forever Red Sox, screw all those pink-hatted babes, 'got no family, 'got no friends, 'got no life--RED SOX I LIVE FOR THIS.

by RedSoxUltras on Feb 2, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I assume you haven't purchased Front Office Manager?

I’ve heard it sucked.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Feb 2, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I tooled around on Baseball Manager

Supposedly it’s the baseball version of the hugely successful “Football (Soccer) Manager). The game didn’t have any licensing rights when it came to logos and players however, so I got kinda bored pretty quick. I spent half an hour creating a "costum” player called “David Ortiz” to make the line up look more authentic but that’s when I realized there where 40 or so players on the Red Sox lineup…I just kinda gave up.

Forever Red Sox, screw all those pink-hatted babes, 'got no family, 'got no friends, 'got no life--RED SOX I LIVE FOR THIS.

by RedSoxUltras on Feb 2, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*custom.

Forever Red Sox, screw all those pink-hatted babes, 'got no family, 'got no friends, 'got no life--RED SOX I LIVE FOR THIS.

by RedSoxUltras on Feb 2, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just get The Show...

It has DP on the cover, and it has the same stuff but with the ability to actually play the games, and the graphics are FREAKIN’ SWEET.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Feb 2, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate it that they have no minors

Only AAA and AA and only guys that already played in the majors. I would kick some big time ass developing the farm.

"Hey we got a lot in common here... I'm gonna rape you"

by MerryGoByeBye on Feb 3, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The computer poses no challenge in management simulations

You really need to include other people.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Feb 3, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs