Mets To Sign Jason Bay

Though if the reported parameters are accurate, I don’t want to hear any more about how Bay really wanted to stay in Boston. For an extra $6M guaranteed and optional fifth year at $14M, he’s going somewhere with a much higher cost of living and higher taxes. He’s not going to end up with much more money than he would have had he settled for four years at $15M/year here.

So either he and his agent badly overestimated the market or he’s just another mercenary. Which is fine — baseball is a business after all. Just don’t tell me you really wanted to stay in Boston.

Bay is one of the only guys who actually can hit in that LF. PNC park is actually bigger in LF than Citi. Aslo had a (ever so slightly) worse overall HR park factor. Bay clobbers the ball-he was one of the Sox least aided by Fenway.

There’s something to be said for playing for a contender in a place where you know you’re comfortable. I think had we offered him that vesting option for a 5th year with a slightly lower value for the first four years he probably would have chosen us over the Mets.

the Sox had issues with Bay beyond defense which partially goes to the “first move” issue. It is claimed that both his shoulder and knee were issues to the Sox, and they did not think we was a lock to hold up. I am also willing to bet (beer?) that defensive metrics still show him to suck next year. He might not be a 10-15 but I bet he is a 5-10. He seems to take soooo long to move in on balls (we had that disucussion during the year) and he also (in a SS) had bad numbers in PNC after the knee injury. I still think the Fenway issue is overblown (see Manny’s numbers last year) and I am also sure the Sox have something better than UZR anyway to gauge his D.

Beltre and keep Youk at 1B. I can see Beltre hitting .270 20-25hr and he will play stellar D at 3rd.

We just need to either (a) sign Beltre or (b) wait until the trading deadline and get A-Gon.

We already spent most of our cash for this off-season and will probably not be buying Holiday.

The lineup even now is a lot stronger than most of the MSM is capable of understanding. Certainly better than it was going into last year.

Remember, we started last year with Varitek as the everyday catcher. All those at bats now go to VMart.

We also spent the first few months with the offensive/defensive wreck that was Lugo/Green/etc. We finished with decent defense/offense there with Alex Gonzalez, but this year we will be generally upgraded in both qualities with Scutaro. He should provide similar quality defense to Gonzo while being noticeably better at getting on base over the course of a whole season.

I don’t expect Papi to hit 40 HR again, but I can’t believe he will do the same sort of out-of-this-world slump that happened to start last season. If he does, then we may end up inserting Lowell there, if we haven’t traded him. But overall I don’t expect a significant overall drop in production out of DH.

Across the outfield, Ells-Cameron-Drew will provide better NET production over Bay-Ells-Drew because while the offense will drop off the defense will be dramatically improved. It should be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. And while he’s not Jason Bay, Cameron will provide some pop.

So based on the above, we are significantly better off at Catcher and SS, and IMHO also across the outfield as a whole and should at least hold steady at DH. Pedrioia should be solid at 2nd. That leaves the corners.

Youkilis should be nearing the peak of his career and will produce both offensively and defensively whether at 1B or 3B. If we can get Beltre, then we will be significantly upgraded at the corners because putting Beltre at 3B is a huge improvement over the injured Lowell at 3B last year. If we end up instead putting Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B, we lose some offensive production, but the defense at the corners will still be much better than last year.

So overall, I look at the position players and I see a noticeably improved lineup over last year.

On top of that, we should have a much deeper starting rotation. This year, in additon to a top-of-the rotation 1-2-3 punch of of Lester, Beckett & Lackey, we will be counting on a re-energized Dice-K and a mature Buchholz for the 4-5 spots. And Wakefield will be there to provide the occasional spot start and long relief. That is WAY improved over relying on Penney / Smolz and a clearly (in hind-sight) WBC-damaged Dice-K. Both Dice-K and Buchholz were pitching as well as most teams’ #1 & 2 pitchers down the stretch last year. That bodes very well for picking up lots of cheap wins against other team’s #3-4-5 starters during the regular season.

We still have one of the best, most dominating bullpens with Oki, Bard & Paps to close things out. We need to shore up the middle relief, but that’s the easiest part of the puzzle to find.

One last thing – by spending the money on Lackey/Cameron instead of Bay/Holliday (or trading for Halladay), Theo didn’t just purchase a pitcher and an outfielder. He also purchased options. He has retained the potential to trade either Buchholz or Ellsbury if needed to further upgrade the team and you can bet he’s working on various options that might include one or both of those guys.

Okay – sorry for length. But there’s a bigger picture than just the loss of Jason Bay’s bat.