Red Sox Still Interested In Jason Bay?
by Randy Booth on Dec 23, 2009 8:22 PM EST
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PrintIt seems that the Red Sox may still be interested in re-signing Jason Bay:
According to a team source, the Red Sox have had internal discussions about extending their organizational budget to potentially allow for another offer for free agent outfielder Jason Bay. The discussed proposal to Bay would be in the vicinity four-year, $60 million originally offered the outfielder by the Red Sox.
It was thought that the signing of pitcher John Lackey to a five-year, $82.5 million deal, along with the acquisition of outfielder Mike Cameron, would make make such a strategy by the Sox unlikely, with the Sox too close to the $170 million luxury tax threshold to make a run at free agent the likes of Bay. The New York Mets are thought to be the team currently most interested in the services of Bay, who is seeking a five-year deal.
If this is true, maybe the Sox would try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. The payroll would still take a huge hit, but the outfield would make a little more sense with Bay in the picture and Ellsbury out of it. Cameron would obviously play center field in this equation.
We'll see what comes of this.
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DAMN IT
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Well, they might pay Jason Bay, but Buchholz could still be traded.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Dec 23, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
We want Jason Bay back but naw...
If we were to lose Ellsbury, our baserunning ability would suffer greatly and we’d see less points on the board.
Isn't the question
whether Bay would be worth $15m – Ellsbury arb numbers over Jacoby?
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
no no no
I completely agree I’d much rather have Ellsbury than Bay. That wasn’t his argument. I’m not taking exception with his point, I’m taking exception with the absurd way he’s arguing it.
Because people that argue the same points I argue in terrible ways make the argument look terrible.
Actually
while not well articulated, it is not a crazy argument. Jacoby “created” 97+ runs last year, Bay 112. It is a significant difference, but not a huge one. One might even expect a smaller gap this year (projected less than 10 runs, eg less than aprox 1 win). A lot of this has to do with Jacoby’s running (and it’s adjustment in wOBA). Trading Jacoby and retaining Bay does not, in it self, make the offense that much better. Likely it makes the defense equally (or more) worse. However, there would alseo be the “return” on flipping Jacoby…
there is still a downgrade in runs even if a small one
“we will see less points on the board”
untrue
Actually, I think it's true
Bay’s taller and has better power / arm strength, so he’ll have an advantage in free-throws and 3-pointers. Ellsbury has better speed, which helps in getting to rebounds, but his weak arm won’t help him make the shot.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
Ellsbury is also tougher in the paint.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
And he can beat anyone off the dribble.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 24, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
But Bay is better from behind the 3pt line
Hits more ‘bombs’.
That is, if Ells would ever get on base
However, his OBP is improving.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Dec 23, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
POINTS?
FAIL
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Dec 23, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
this just makes no sense
San Diego wouldn’t want to give up 2 years of cheap marquee all star only to take, as a significant part of the trade, a few years of less promising center fielder who will surely be out of there for a huge contract when his time is up.
ellsbury is less promising???
He’s one of the best defensive center fielders in the league. he doesn’t have a huge arm, but he has great base running and ground covering speed.
~SHaFF!~
Ellsbury is not one of the best defensive center fielders in the league
He’s probably average if you meet somewhere between the high of 2008 and the low of 2009. He moves well laterally but well below average going forward and below average going backwards.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 23, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury has a lot of potential and a high ceiling
If he develops the areas he’s weak in (getting reads on balls defensively, continues to improve walks), he’ll be a great player and a force offensively and defensively.
Not on the level of Adrian Gonzalez. This is not bashing Ells, I’m probably one of the most pro-Ells people on here, I love the guy. It’s just Gonzalez is a whole different level of player.
true at this point...
but with the length of career ells has left, he can become a much more important piece to the team than adrian gonzalez would be in the long run.
Don’t get me wrong I’d love to have adrian gonzalez, but I wouldn’t be in favor of trading ellsbury to get him.
~SHaFF!~
Pedroia, Drew and Youkilis
were there in ’07 after Lugo crapped out.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
I think he might prefer OBP at the top of the order
And really at every point in the order
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 23, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 24, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
I see Tito's hand more in this matter than Theo's input..
Tito seemed to show flashes of his former NL self, with using Ells for baserunning, and the hit and run.
I don’t see how the Sox are going to trade Ells and sign Bay. The Sox gave their final offer to Bay, and they are not going to give him a five year deal. The 4/65 deal is the Sox FO’s offer to Bay, and Bay and his agent rejected it.
I think what happened is
Bay realized that only the Mets wanted him. He doesn’t want to be stuck at Citi for 4-5 years, so he came back and said “umm can I take the offer now?”
was it 4/65? All I remember was 4/60
I think the Sox offered 4/60 and never moved. The Mets upped the offer to 4/65. As far as I know, no one has offered a 5th year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 24, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
yeah I was wrong...
I thought the Sox offered a bit more than the 4/60 offer to Bay, but they seemed not to budge from 4/60, and the Mets offered 4/63-65..
by superferret on Dec 24, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
what
This doesn’t make sense. No need to commit to an aging DH even if he is a good one. And if this is supposed to be a prelude to an Ellsbury trade, what trade? There is ZERO chance it’d be for Adrian Gonzalez. I can easily look up on the internet how bad Ellsbury was in center last year so I’m positive Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod know the same. There will be no way to trick those guys into selling even a little low on Gonzalez. I know there are other GMs that don’t do their basic research but even then I’m not sure what a realistic return for Ellsbury would be.
This feels like an unnecessary reaction after the Vazquez trade. Give up on trying to equal the Yankees in 2010. They’re a bunch of ubermenschen. You deal with that by replacing one-dimensional players with multi-faceted ones. You can’t just spend to keep up with them. You can certainly find more LF/DH types in the future.
Makes no sense unless Ellsbury is traded for Gonzo
They aren’t going to bring in Bay for a 4 man outfield rotation. Bay could settle in as the DH but you’ve got Ortiz in ’10 and he would be an expensive option beyond that. Signing Bay requires two other moves. First, clear an outfield spot, presumbly Ellsbury for Gonzalez. Second, acquire a backup centerfielder. This seems like a bluff or a media creation. If they are going to make one last free agent splash, I would prefer it be for Holliday if the numbers make sense.
what???
so you say we need to trade ellsbury and then get another backup centerfielder? how does that make sense?
I think we need to sign Bay so that we can have the depth in the outfield. What would be so bad about having a 4 man rotation in the outfield? Bay can share time with Ortiz at DH and let cameron play LF and CF, hell with his defense right field too. Cameron could be out Melky Cabrera.
I like the idea of trading Bucholz for Gonzalez though.
~SHaFF!~
no no i do.
I’m just saying that I would be in favor of signing bay if they wanted to expand the payroll, I’m not against a 4 man rotation in the outfield to keep Drew healthy as well. But I’ve said on here a few times now, I’d rather see Adrian Beltre for less money than Bay.
~SHaFF!~
I want to make sure I understand your argument
IF Bay was re-signed, you would prefer to keep Ellsbury to have greater outfield depth with a $37M (plus Ellsbury) 4 man outfield rotation in favor on a weaker rotation by trading Buchholz in a deal for Gonzalez? If so, how is that better than keeping Buch and using Hermida as your 4th outfielder and finding a backup CF?
alternative theory
Theo’s bored. Wants to fuck with the Mets and get them to double their offer for a cheap laugh.
I like this theory
+1
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 23, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
+2
Theo’s going on a rampage against the other big payroll teams. He’ll make the Mets overpay for Bay and then sign Johnny Damon for peanuts to spite New York (and hit another grandslam off Javier Vazquez).
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
or thinks the yankees are in for bay or holliday
because if he drives bay’s price up, holliday will certainly sign for more than bay.
this was my immediate thought when I first heard this 'report'
I don’t believe the Red Sox would do this in a million years.
It would cost them way too much to sign Bay now. IF they stretched their budge to go to, say 4/66 or 5/70 or whatever, they would not just be taking on Bay’s salary. They would also be boosting their CBT tax rate next year to the max rate – as you explained elsewhere so I am repeating this for others, not you, Wolf.
Signing Bay now is just ridiculously expensive there is no way it happens unless we unload a major piece of salary elsewhere in the lineup.
unlesss ... are they already 'over' the CBT?
maybe they crunched the numbers and figured out that bonuses and arbitration results, etc. etc. already put them over the limit?
If so, then that would explain maybe ‘going for it’. But then I definitely think they would get Beltre before Bay. Maybe both if they really could deal Ells.
But I don’t believe the Padres will take Ells (because of his proximity to FA) unless he’s just a throw in with Kelley and one other top prospect with longer control. Giving up Ells, Kelley and Westmoreland would probably get it done, but seems too expensive to me – I’d want to try to keep either Kelley or Westmoreland if at all possible.
+3
I fell off the boat reading your post, though. Hypothetically the Mets sign Bay for huge money and Damon for chump change, or Judas comes back to roost?
Not to completely shift subjects, but who would be better contenders next year with Bay- San Fran or the Mets? It’s safe to rule the Mariners out at this point, isn’t it?
by Christopher B on Dec 23, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think San Francisco hands down
but I don’t think they can afford him. Really, right now, the battle for Bay is pretty much the Mets vs. the Mets. Which is why it makes sense for Theo to try to push the price up.
++++++
And I just discovered that sbnation considers +1 a valid comment, but not multiple pluses. interesting.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
most definitely would be nice
still my favorite scenario. Don’t know if they’ll be able to clear out enough payroll to make it feasible though, with Lowell staying
Lowell staying is only a net change of 3mil for this year.
I don’t think that’s much of a factor, money-wise anyhow. Perhaps as a roster-glut consideration.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
the problem is not the $3M
its that they are so close to the luxury tax threshold that they have no room to add a little salary without going over -which would end up costing them a HUGE amount next year because going over this year means a much higher rate next year, when they probably will WANT to go after some of the big name FAs that will be available.
Which means the problem isn't Lowell's 3MM...
…but Lackey’s 18M, which jams up Beltre’s money which would plug the hole that we have.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
+5 Bazillionty Thousand
but also not likely to happen unless we can unload Hermida and part of Lowell’s salary (or Tek’s if there is a baseball god smiling on us somewhere in the heavens …).
If the Sox are going to re-offer their 4/$60MM or maybe a touch above I think I'd much rather they simply add 2 years to the deal and see if they can get Holliday to bite
He won’t bite at that offer, too low AAV, but it would be a much better use of Theo’s time
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 23, 2009 10:39 PM EST reply actions
Could they backload his contract to avoid paying the luxury tax this year?
Are they close enough to the tax level that that would be necessary?
No, they can't backload it to avoid the luxury tax
How close a team is to the luxury tax is determined by adding up the AAV of each contract on a team’s payroll (40-Man) so even if you backload Bay’s contract the average is still the same and it wouldn’t make a lick of difference.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 23, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Which I think is a little dumb
Why should we have to pay now for money we haven’t even spent yet?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
This is a terrible idea.
Even if it’s Holliday at this point, this makes no sense.
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Actually, it could make some sense.
Between Kalish, Reddick, and Westmoreland, the Sox are very likely to have someone ready for CF by the time Cameron’s contract runs out. By trading Ellsbury as part of an Adrian Gonzalez deal, the Sox would be avoiding a potential logjam, and getting value for him while they still have the ability to claim they’re not desperate to move one of their CF.
Imagine:
Scutaro
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Youkilis
Holliday
Martinez
Ortiz
Drew
Cameron
Lester
Beckett
Lackey
Daisuke
Wakefield
We’d be improved offensively and defensively by a significant amount. I’d say we could even be favorites!
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 24, 2009 8:09 AM EST up reply actions
Also, if we COULD acquire prospects to deal via a Beckett deal instead of trading Buchholz, I'd prefer that.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 24, 2009 8:10 AM EST up reply actions
this makes sense from a personnel standpoint
but the dollars and the proximity to the CBT are a big issue.
I think it only makes sense if they have figured out that they already have tripped past the CBT threshold and thus might as well go for it.
No chance we get Gonzalez
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Holliday's name is being tossed around too.
I’m actually all for it if we could trade, say, Buchholz, Ellsbury, and assorted smaller names for Adrian Gonzalez. But if this isn’t part of an A-Gon deal, then I’ll pass.
USG
This only goes to prove the Lackey signing is messing with every reasonable option we had at teh beginning of the hotstove......
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
@#$%ING THIS.
Seriously.
Geez…now I’m getting all worked up again…
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Damn it, we need free $$$ next winter do not spend NOW
Trade Beckett
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
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