Jon Lester is Both Underrated and Overlooked
by Logan Lietz on Dec 23, 2009 10:00 AM EST
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PrintJust days removed from being named the Red Sox's Pitcher of the Year, as voted on by the Boston chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, Jon Lester once again finds himself lost amidst some of the more established names that help make up Boston's starting rotation.
Despite his recent accolades, the signing of Lackey leads many to regard Lester as the team's number three starter by default, behind both Lackey and Josh Beckett.
The initial reaction to John Lackey's 5-year, $82.5 million dollar contract was geared towards its effect on Josh Beckett -- his expiring contract a particular area of interest in the matter. However, the extra motivation provided by Lackey is not lost on the other member of the "big three," Jon Lester.
Who are the best left-handed starting pitchers in Major League Baseball?
Present the above question to almost any baseball fan outside of Boston and you'll likely hear the same few names; Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, and C.C. Sabathia. In very few instances will Jon Lester's will be offered as an answer, and certainly not before the aforementioned names, an injustice that is likely to change very soon.
As stated earlier, the Red Sox recently signed the top available pitcher via free-agency, John Lackey, to a long-term deal worth over $80 million dollars. With Josh Beckett eligible for free-agency himself following the 2010 season, many have speculated that Boston may potentially be preparing to part ways with the right-hander who has been regarded as the staff ace for the last few years, leading many to wonder what effect Lackey's contract will have on Josh. Does Lackey provide Beckett with an added element of motivation to prove that he is still the 'ace' of the Sox's rotation? There's no doubt that the situation merits a high level of interest, but once again, we seem to be overlooking someone.
Let's look at some numbers over the last two seasons. Who's the real 'ace' of the following two pitchers?
Record ERA IP CG SHO BB SO WHIP
Pitcher A: 27-16 3.94 386.2 5 2 89 371 1.19
Pitcher B: 31-14 3.31 413.2 4 2 130 377 1.25
It's hard to make a truly convincing argument for either of the two. However, consider this statistic (brought to us by Baseball Prospectus):
STUFF Rating- A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}
Pitcher A: 30 rating (10th in the league in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least 150 IP)
Pitcher B: 39 rating (4th in the league in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least 150 IP)
Starting to lean towards Pitcher B?
As you may have guessed by now, Pitcher A is Josh Beckett. Pitcher B? Jon Lester. Again, I ask, who is the real 'ace' of the Red Sox's rotation heading into 2010?
As I did entering last season (evidence found here -- always fun to look back at these), I predict that Lester will yet again be the Red Sox's most valuable pitcher next year, as well as an early favorite to win the American League's Cy Young Award.
While many debate who is the Red Sox's number one pitcher entering the season, not everyone even bothers to include Lester in the discussion. I am by no means belittling the importance of Josh Beckett to Boston's rotation, and in no way am I saying that Lester should be considered the unanimous choice as the Sox's 'ace', but how about just a little recognition outside of the city of Boston? What has become lost in all the talk surrounding Lackey's effect on Beckett is just how Lester will respond this season.
My guess is that Lester uses his uncanny ability to fly under the radar to again post numbers that will make him a strong consideration for not only his third-consecutive Red Sox Pitcher of the Year Award (something that has never been done before), but a front-runner for the Cy Young Award as well. In the event that Boston makes the post-season again in 2010, will Lester be handed the ball for ALDS Game 1, as was the case in 2009 against the Angels? Although only time will tell how that scenario plays out, I know who I want with the ball. I think the 2010 regular season will change the minds of those who are not already in agreement with me.
Imagine being named your team's Pitcher of the Year for the second consecutive season (a feat only accomplished in Boston one time prior to Lester doing so [Pedro Martinez], and never before by a left-handed pitcher) only to find yourself still struggling to even be seriously involved in discussions regarding who your team's 'ace' is?
How's that for added motivation?
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Nice Job
Great post and I like the A/B pitcher thing. What the number show me is the same thing my eyes tell me – Both excellent starting pitchers, Pitcher A, Beckett, tends to throw more strikes, hence much lower BB numbers. As he is over the plate more often, he also gets hit more, giving up his share of home runs along the way. Lester is more of a pitchers pitcher. He has the velocity, but is not afraid to work more of the zone, give up a few walks and induce some bad swings and get the batters to hit into more outs.
I think if you polled fans of AL teams
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
many would say Lester is one of the best in the game. He might not get much cred nationwide but I think the people on the east coast know he’s legit. He’s only getting better too, scary.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 23, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Except
The NY Daily News, in a comparison of the Sox’ and MFY rotation, had Lester listed as Boston’s #3 starter after Beckett and Lackey. Lester is not only the Sox’ best starter, he started Game 1 of the ALDS last year. Beckett started Game 2.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 23, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I ***almost*** care what the Daily News thinks.
If I’m up to date, one of their latest suggestions is to put both Hughes and Joba in the pen and have Gaudin be the 5th starter. They’re all idiots.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 23, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
But that’s neither here nor there. Lester is a heck of a pitcher and very overlooked by people outside of Boston.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 23, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Could you be meaner or something?
It makes me feel bad when I bad-mouth MFY fans. (j/k)
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 23, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Lester is my clear #1
and right now, I’d say its a toss as to whether Lackey or Beckett is #2 – Beckett was awesome last year from mid-spring to early summer, but was not so much in the second half. Lackey finished stronger.
I sense a friendly competition coming on for those two.
If you really want to talk about ‘under the radar’, Buchholz could potentially, finally (yes, finally) have that breakout season we’ve been waiting for. He really does have nasty stuff and if he shows what he did late last year for a whole season ….
And also ‘under the radar’, folks shouldn’t forget that Dice-K won 18 games in 2008. If he holds to the conditioning program that he apparently is focused on, he could come back huge.
I know its arguable how we match up against the Yanks for 1-2-3 (I think we have a slight edge), but I think we potentially could crush with our 4-5 (& spot) starters. The back end of a rotation is where you win lots of regular season games which count just as much in the standings as front-end wins.
well, their competition might become not so friendly...
just a hunch. but thinking way ahead to the playoffs, the back end of the rotation becomes meaningless. at that point the team with the better top three would win, and if the yankees have a significantly better offense than us then they would be pretty tough.
Very true
and why teams that otherwise don’t have rotational depth can still be ‘built for the post-season’ by having just a dominant 1-2 punch.
But if you don’t have the dominant 1-2 punch, what you want to do to get an advantage in the post-season is to WIN THE FREAKIN" DIVISION (not shouting at you – just emphasizing the point). Why is that important? Because that means you get to play at home. And home is a very nice place to be in the playoffs, especially if you are the Red Sox. You want to get every advantage you can get, and home field is a huge one.
Shall we rehash all the reasons it sucked to start these last playoffs on the road in Anaheim?
Like I said, we may have a ‘slight’ edge in the front of the rotation over the Yankees, but i don’t think you could honestly say right now that we have the 1-2 punch to absolutely dominate in a series no matter where it is played. However, we may have the 3-4-5 depth to take the division out from under the Yankees, relegating them to fighting for the wildcard and the right to start the playoffs on the road.
For much of the last 7 or so years, we had a clear edge in the top of the rotation (Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lester ) over most teams so we could be pretty confident going into any playoff series, including against the Yankees – and this was proved out by winning two WS titles. That held true even in 04 when the Yanks had a better regular season team and won the division. But since the Yankees signed CC and AJ, they have a legitimate 1-2 that counters that advantage. So we need to establish some other advantage over them.
You win the playoffs with dominant top-of the rotation pitching and a shut-down bullpen. But you win the regular season with hitting, defense and a deep rotation that sucks wins up like a vacuum from the 3-4-5 starters on other staffs.
I think that that is the current plan by the Red Sox.
They still have a very strong top of the rotation – possibly as good as any in baseball (Hernandez and Lee in Seattle might be the best now though), and most of the pieces of a shut-down bullpen (Papelbon, Bard, Oki, etc.). So they are still well geared for the playoffs. The acquisition of Lackey, whether you think of him as #2 or #3, pushes Buch, Dice-K and Wake each down a slot in the rotation, meaning on average they will face a slightly inferior pitcher than before.
And, if Buchholz, Dice K and Wake, as a spot starter, all perform around where we expect them to, then they could be the real keys to winning the regular season. Which could be the key to winning the playoffs. We could use an assist from the AL by winning the All Star Game as well. :-)
Complete agreement
To add another perspective to things, Jon Lester posted the second best xFIP (3.13) in the AL last year. The only pitcher to do better is now unpacking his bags in Philadelphia.
Barring him getting hit by a truck, he’ll almost certainly be in the running for Cy Young next year.
Lester
I agree that he is the most valuable and best pitcher on the staff. But I don’t agree that he is so under-rated. When he was the starter in Game 1 of the playoffs, there was no loud objection from anyone.
But I think you overlooked some of the strongest demonstrations of Lester’s talent. His lifetime W-L is an incredible 46-16 — and that includes a lost season where he was recovering from cancer for the most part. To whatever extent W-L measures anything, Lester has had an incredible career to date.
But perhaps most important, Lester continues to improve year by year, especially when measured by WHIP.
Finally, he improved dramatically as the season progressed last year. If you remember, he had some horrendous starts in April and May. But his ERA in the second half of the year was just 2.82.
All signs point to Lester performing next year as one of the elite pitchers in the game. He isn’t there yet, but it will be fun to see if he makes it.
Yeah he dropped his WHIP although having a higher BABIP!!! But the most significant aspect of his improvement is the huge spike in his K-rate: He went from 6.50 K/9 to 9.96 while maintaining the same BB/rate.
Watching his Pitch f/X Data is a pure joy: We all know how nasty his cutter is but his Slider is filthy: 21.2 whiff% and he seems relying more on it this year as he’s throwing it 9% of the time compared to 0.2% (!!!!) last year.
He’s athletic with a fluid delivery, very affordable and he keeps improving: I think he’ll dominates for years (Knock on wood).
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Lester easily
Lackey number 2, Beckett number 3. Beckett has too many niggling injuries, and I simply don’t think we can ever rely on him. Lester bounced back from a not-so-awesome April and May last season, even effectively avoiding the Sophomore Slump. He’s a stud.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Beckett is better than Lackey
And has been for the past three seasons.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 23, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Let's compare
Lackey ERA+:
2007: 150
2008: 119
2009: 118
Total: 387
Beckett ERA+:
2007; 145
2008: 115
2009: 122
Total: 382
Basically a wash. I’ll take Lackey, personally.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
ERA and ERA+ are not good measures of pitching
ERA does not tell you how well a pitcher has pitched. Earned runs are tied to errors and other subjective criteria. If you want a good overview, read this.
Let’s look at both pitchers’ performances over the past three seasons based K, BB, and FIP, a stat which better measures how well a pitcher has pitched than ERA.
2007:
Lackey – (224 IP) 7.19 K/9 2.09 BB/9 3.54 FIP
Beckett – (200.2 IP) 8.70 K/9 1.79 BB/9 3.08 FIP
2008:
Lackey – (163.1 IP) 7.16 K/9 2.20 BB/9 4.53 FIP
Beckett – (174.1 IP) 8.88 K/9 1.76 BB/9 3.24 FIP
2009:
Lackey – (176.1 IP) 7.09 K/9 2.40 BB/9 3.73 FIP
Beckett – (212.1 IP) 8.43 K/9 2.33 BB/9 3.63 FIP
Beckett has been clearly better.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 23, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
But are Lackey's injuries chronic?
Beckett seems like he has a chronically bad back at this point. I simply don’t trust him in any way when we need to count on him. imho, that’s all, I’ll never feel comfortable with him on the mound.
Also doesn’t help that he’s been bloody atrocious in 95% of the games I’ve attended, but that’s neither here nor there.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
I understand the feeling.
Beckett does seem to go into the tank without notice from time to time. However, I don’t think it was a cronic back thing. In 08 it was a nerve problem and then the oblique. Last year it was never specified. People claimed he had dead arm, but I don’t recall it being a back issue (aside from the “I woke up with a stiff neck” thing that pushed back a couple of starts).
Except that
ERA+ is not meaningful, unless you think ERA is. For example the Sox defense blew last year, while Lackey pitched behind a notedly stronger defense. Plus the “+” adjustment is not a meaningful adjustment for leauge/park. That is simply adjusted the same way OPS+ is-by dividing by a park factor for the entire ERA. That is not a meaningful adjustment.
The key to Lester
In his first two years in the Majors he struggled at the beginning of the year to get going and then got into a groove and never turned back.
If Lester starts out the season rolling he will win a Cy Young. He has made some of the best hitters in baseball look really stupid up there.
In '08
My first 4 games were all Lester starts. The first he lost to Detroit and pitched just terribly, then he lost against the Angels, and I was getting really sick of seeing him.
The day of the third game it was pouring and in the 40s all day, and I was pissed I had to see Lester again. Then he pulled out a ridiculous gem on a cold, rainy, awful night against the Blue Jays (the first of the two back-to-back walkoff 1-0 games). Then the next game was May 19th. Haven’t had any questions about Lester any more after that.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Lester was always good last year.
The defense was just really bad. He had a massive ERA-FIP, and sure enough, he re(pro?)gressed towards his expected numbers till he was sitting pretty in the low 3’s.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 23, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hasn't Beckett pitched more innings than Lackey
over the last 3 years? Don’t you think that his K rates are far superior? Do you like his K/bb better? And didn’t he do this in the tougher division and park to pitch in? Can you tell me again how Lackey is better than Beckett?
He is uglier
Lackey definitely is are #1 ugly pitcher.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
He also looks like a pelican.
He’s our #1 avian pitcher.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I think to start the year
Beckett is in the #2 slot. Just because they’re very similar pitchers and he has Red Sox seniority. Over the year that may change depending on how they all perform. Hopefully having such solid teammates will inspire them all to pitch pretty fantastically.
Is it crazy to suggest
Beckett/Lester/Lackey even if Lester is the ace? R then L then R may not mean all that much, but I like alternation.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
well when you only have one lefty
then in the scheme of things, after game 1, the lefty is always surrounded by two righties. Either way really.
Lester is, undoubtedly, the Ace.
I don’t have any more questions after 2009. In 2008, it was “Lester, unless Beckett comes back really strong next year.” In 2009, it’s “Lester”
USG
Regardless of how your order them
I really like the pure ‘bulldog’ toughness of all three (Lester/Lackey/Beckett). Together with Daisuke “Nothing phases me I’ve got ice in my veins whether I’m pitching lights-out or like-crap” Matsouzaka, Buchholz has some steady hands as role models in front of him.
i totally disagree.
I think most people consider Lester and Sabathia the best two lefties in the game. Lester is clearly the ace, although that doesn’t mean that Beckett or Lackey couldn’t put up years equal to or better than him next year.
I don't know if they're the best two
certainly two of the best. Cliff Lee’s made a pretty impressive case for himself, and Santana isn’t exactly shabby.
well santana is declining
and lee was pretty average before 2008.
true but
Santana is declining, but still exception. He is still a very impressive pitcher
Lee wasn’t great before 2008, but then again Lester’s stats before 2008 were pretty bad. That doesn’t make either of them a worse pitcher today.
I think long run, Lester will likely be one of the best 2 lefties in the game, but not so far.
Dice k is going to be the Ace this year. Mark my words.
If he doesnt im going to look like this:
The Orioles Suck!
Kill Korver!
MARK MY WORDS!
I hate the orioles…
The Orioles Suck!
Kill Korver!
by bucimislover on Dec 23, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Excuse me for a second
I need to go kill myself after seeing that.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
I don't feel good
after seeing that. I am suddenly very sad.
The only issue for me with Lester
is are his K rates sustainable? Like others here I feel he is the ace of the staff. He had a huge jump in k/9 however. Is that him or is he some weighted average of 08/09? His tools and velocity still seem to be developing, so it is possible this will continue. On the other hand a k/9 jump of nearly 3.5 at this age/stage is rare…
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