a possible plan for the sox

by HeyYoCraig on Dec 2, 2009 2:44 PM EST Comment 22 comments

The Red Sox need to sign either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. They lacked offense in 2009 even with a player of Bay's caliber in the lineup. Next, they need to hold on to Buchholz. He pitched wonderfully for a stretch of a month or so in September and I believe that we can expect more of that in the future.

I feel that the Red Sox are in a situation where they should give San Diego what they want for Adrian Gonzalez. In past years I have always sided with those who said it is not worth it to empty out your farm system for one player. This is the first time I have felt that it is necessary. The acquisition of Gonzalez would give the sox the boost they needed in offense. Imagine a lineup with Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Martinez, and Bay/Holliday in the 2-6 positions. Gonzalez will come at a high cost, especially considering SD's GM's extensive knowledge of the Sox farm system.

Gonzalez would be a much wiser investment than Halliday. Instead of targeting Halliday, the Sox should ideally sign Lackey, but more realistically, they should go after one (if not two) of those low risk-high reward pitchers out there, such as Sheets, Harden, or possibly Duchscherer.

I don't know how I feel about the idea of moving Pedroia to short. I think he is more than capable of playing the position, but I do have a minor doubt about his arm strength. Acquiring a player such as Adam Everett to fill in the gap at short would be wise, considering the amount of money the team would be spending elsewhere. Everetts is one of the top defensive shortstops in the league and if the Sox can't find an offensive player, they might as well go for the top defender.

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The funny thing is that they did not lack offense at all

They scored more runs in 2009 (872) than 2008 (845), 2007(867) and 2006 (820). 872 runs was good for 3rd in baseball last year.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Dec 2, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I pretty much agree with your moves, if not your motives.

I think Adrian Gonzalez is a big point of contention this offseason. While he is a huge bat, and would solve our problems with 3B by moving Youk over, he will be incredibly expensive prospect-wise. We absolutely have to make any trade contingent on an extension of his contract for a good while. In addition, we have to be careful what we keep in our system. We could certainly afford to send, say, Lars and Rizzo their way with our corner infield so well established, but keeping Westmoreland, who has the potential to be a top-level player offensively and defensively in a position where we’re likely to be able to find improvement (CF) is a priority.

I also don’t like the idea of a Lackey signing. That’s a lot of money for a guy who’s honestly just good (not great) and would be coming to a park he has had mediocre results in. I do like Sheets, though. Particularly Sheets, though Bedard and Duch are also good options (not a fan of Harden).

But as Casanova points out, the reasoning behind the Adrian Gonzalez move would not be some lack of offense.

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 2, 2009 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Sox don't need to give up the farm for Gonzales

As Casanova pointed out, the offense was plenty productive, though it could stand to be a little more consistent. What the team lacks is defense and sufficient pitching. Trading for Gonzales will help with the defense at the corners, but we’d probably have to give up Buchholz, Bard, and three or four top prospects, which would make the pitching weaker.

Bringing in Everett is the best move no matter what happens in left field — he may be a black hole at bat, but he’d be no worse than what the Sox got from shortstop this year and his defense will make up for it.

And the more I think about it, the more I think we might be better off if we get neither Bay nor Holliday. Let them sign unreasonable contracts they’ll never play up to with other teams; we can get Cameron for centerfield and slide Ellsbury over to left. Whatever we lose on offense with Cameron relative to Bay and Holliday will be more than made up for with superior defense in center and left, and we’ll have enough financial flexibility to be able to offer Mauer a gazillion dollars next year.

by RSNexile on Dec 2, 2009 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's be realistic

A gazillion + 1 for Mauer.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Dec 2, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's be realistic

If Mauer wants to leave Minnesotta, he’ll sign with New York. There’s no way he comes to Boston.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Dec 2, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

We’ll have money to commit, with Lowell, Ortiz, VMart and Beckett coming off the books. If Theo were ever to bet the Yanks in a bidding war, it would be for Mauer.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 2, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention the Yankees are sort of set

Posada at C with their best prospect being a C coming up the ranks. Not to mention a gluttony of 1B/3B/DH types, which are the other places they could put Mauer.

by Gnick on Dec 2, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Posada is old as shit and Mauer is a once-in-a-generation talent. The Yankees will not pass on him for their prospect.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Dec 3, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What bidding war?

There’s no way Theo can win a bidding war with the Yanks. They can always outbid him, and if they don’t top his high offer, it’s because the Sox signed the player to a crippling contract and Cashman will just laugh.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Dec 3, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Why would the Red Sox just let Bay go? Mike Cameron is not even remotely good enough to fill in for Jason Bay. Ellsbury is good but why not resign Jason Bay? Is 35 HR and 120 RBI not good ? I must say that going to for Gonzalez will require a chunk of the bullpen…not worth it at all. Resign Bay and get harden and scutaro

by Btown7491 on Dec 3, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

35 HR is good

120 RBI is irrelevant because that is based on people around him being on base.

His defense is not good.

I think Bay’s a great hitter, and there are worse things for the team than re-signing him, but by not re-signing him, we put the team in a better position for the future both by improving our draft and by not committing a long term contract to a player that is unlikely to age well.

by wolf9309 on Dec 3, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I may be in the minority, but I'm not big on giving up the farm for Adrian Gonzalez

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a very good player. But, he doesn’t really hit left-handed pitching:

2009 – (254 PA) .234 AVG/.339 OBP/.431 SLG (.770 OPS) v. lefties
Career – (915 PA) .244 AVG/.316 OBP/.428 SLG (.744 OPS) v. lefties

JD Drew, who often sits against left-handed starters has better lefty splits than Gonzalez:

2009 – (135 PA) .272 AVG/.381 OBP/.482 SLG (.863 OPS) v. lefties
Career – (1271 PA) .262 AVG/.366 OBP/.438 SLG (.804 OPS) v. lefties

Gonzalez will put up big numbers in Fenway. He mashes righties. But, in high-leverage situations, he can be pitched to. I’m not sure I want to empty the farm for a that kind of hitter.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2009 9:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A fair point, to be quite frank.

While it’s certainly better to have a guy who can’t hit lefties than righties, exposing a significant weakness either way could make us vulnerable.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 2, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+10

I am glad you posted this here. I said precisely the same on Yawkey Way Academy a few days ago :). AGonz could probably hit 50 HRs in Fenway, but late in any game would be highly vulnerable against any decent LOOGY. We already have a few number of players wit split problems (Ortiz and Lowell and in the past Tek come to mind); we need more guys like Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay that have even splits. The Yankees for example have a lot of switch hitters and guys with really good splits. It makes it easier to do damage in high leverage offensive situations. I also agree that Miggy is a better offense threat for largely the reasont hat his splits are good, but he does come with baggage for sure (and a very high salary).

by Buzzy on Dec 3, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that

as a long term thing, Gonzalez makes more sense if we can resign him at the end of his contract for a long time (and maybe as much money as Miggy, but probably less), since Lowell and Ortiz are presumably both gone after this year. That said, I’m against emptying out all our young players for anyone right now, I’m fine with trading a couple of the guys, but the amount of prospects either of these guys would require will probably cripple our future team for a few years. I don’t think that huge offense is necessary enough to warrant selling the farm. I love a-gonz, but a player that good, that cheap is just going to cost too much in prospects. Miggy is a great hitter, but I just don’t want him near the red sox after that incident last year. It just speaks too much about poor discretion and a lack of dedication in my mind.

by wolf9309 on Dec 3, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The more I think about it

the more I want Cabrera. Yes, with his weight, he’s destined to be a $19 million dollar DH in a couple of years, and yes, there is the concern about his lifestyle, and yes, he’s already committed a lot of money over a lot of years.

But he’s baseball’s best hitter not named Pujols, he’s got his prime years in front of him, he was actually above-average defensively last year, and, given the concerns mentioned above (plus Detroit’s unfortunate economy), he’d probably cost us less prospects than Gonzalez. He’d be a Manny-like presence in our lineup for the next 6-plus seasons. I want.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 2, 2009 10:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera is a better than Gonzalez

But he is expensive and has tons of off-the-field issues. I agree that he’d give the offense a huge boost. However, I can’t see the Sox going after him. I think the Manny experience soured the Sox on players with baggage—no matter how good they are.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see Manny and Miggy as different beasts.

Yes, they’ve both got some issues. But Cabrera is a workhorse. He hasn’t played less than 157 games since his rookie year. I recognize that Manny also was a semi-horse in Cleveland, but he already had the reputation of being aloof and a man-child.

Plus, I don’t think we’re all that gun-shy when it comes to eccentric players. Baggage didn’t scare Theo away from Lugo. Drew had a Manny-esque rep of coasting on his talent and quitting on his team. Buch had his share of youthful indiscretions. Paps has his share of baggage, supposedly Youk rubs some guys the wrong way in the clubhouse, etc.

Not everyone can be Tiger Woods off the field. Oh, wait…

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 2, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1 for the Tiger reference alone.

by ritz on Dec 3, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera is somewhere between Manny and DLowe

He is a great player, who is signed to an expensive contract through 2015. Cabrera has a weight problem and a long-term contract is a risk. He’s a great hitter, but I can’t see the Sox taking on another potential headache.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 3, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

define tons of off the field issues

I know of a possible weight issue and the incident w/ drinking this past fall.

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Dec 3, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with most of your moves

If they want to spend the money, I think they can restock this off season:

Sign Holliday, Lackey, a injury risk (ex: Harden) and perhaps a top reliever (Soriano, Gonzalez, Putz).
Trade for Adrian Gonzalez with Buchholz the center piece.
Ink a backup infielder and center fielder, preferably someone who can do both (Carroll?).

by mg050369 on Dec 5, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs