Who Needs Offense From A Shortstop? Not The Red Sox
by Randy Booth on Dec 2, 2009 6:00 AM EST
in News
36 comments
Ever since the demise of Nomar Garciaparra, the Boston Red Sox and us, the fans, have been wanting a shortstop that can hit the ball, field the ball and throw the ball. Is that too much to ask?
It has been hard, actually. The Sox have gone through a lot of shortstops since Nomar was traded in July of 2004 (17, actually). It's a revolving door that I know we're all sick of.
But in that shortstop, what do the Red Sox actually need?
The Red Sox have won two World Series championships since Nomar left. Those came in 2004 and 2007. Let's look at who manned the No. 6 position in those seasons:
2004 Pokey Reese - 96 games - .221/.271/.303
Orlando Cabrera - 58 games - .294/.320/.465
2007 Julio Lugo - 147 games - .237/.294/.349
Two World Series titles, two seasons where the primary shortstop was horrible at the plate. Cabrera came in once Nomar was traded and hit well, but for the most part the shortstops have done nothing. Jack. But what they do have in common? It's not hard to see:
2004 Pokey Reese - 507.2 innings - 4.9 RF/9 - +20.2 UZR/150
Orlando Cabrera - 491 innings - 4.1 RF/9 - +2.8 UZR/150
2007 Julio Lugo - 1,228.1 innings - 4.2 RF/9 - +4.3 UZR/150
Even Julio Lugo, as you can see, played solid defense at the shortstop position. Are we seeing a theme here?
There was nothing wrong with the Red Sox's offense in 2009. They finished third in the American League in runs (872), third in home runs (212) and second in OPS (.806). Forgetting about the Yankees and their stadium that knows no gravity, the Sox finished first and second in a few very important categories.
So do the Sox need to swing the bat better?
No. It's all about the defense, folks. The fielding of players like Jason Bay and Mike Lowell really weighed this team down. If the Sox want to improve this team, they need to look at the defense. Let's just start at the shortstop position.
I am on the Adam Everett boat. As bad of a hitter Everett is, he is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. That's pretty much the only reason he's staying afloat in the big leagues. But with an offense that is one of the best in baseball -- and should stay one of the best going into next year -- Everett will do what he's supposed to and field the ball well. That's all the Sox need out of their shortstop. History proves that.
Everett has a lifetime 18.3 UZR/150 at shortstop in over 6,500 innings. That's really good by all accounts. He will save runs as a shortstop while tucked away in the No. 9 spot. The Sox could afford to do this in '04 and '07, so why not now too?
As much as we want the Red Sox to outbash every single team out there, it's a tough thing to do. It's hard work to find a shortstop that can do everything. They're out there, but they're taken and locked up for a long time. For good reason, as you can see. So why not take a flier on Everett, someone we know what to expect from?
What's your take? Is Everett so bad offensively (lifetime .245/.297/.351 line) that the Sox should look elsewhere? Should offense really take priority with the uncertainty of left field or the production from Lowell at third?
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he really is that bad offensively
you can’t have a black hole in your lineup. even if he is the best defensively, i’m willing to take third or fourth best if it means considerably better offense. so better options would be signing scutaro and platooning him with lowrie, or doing the unthinkable a week ago and switching pedroia to SS. also if thats the route we go, how could anyone not like Orlando Hudson? i would kill for him.
agreed
I’ll tell you what, I really wouldn’t mind the idea of moving Pedroia to SS and grabbing a guy like Hudson. I just feel like Pedroia is ready to prove to everyone out there he can definitely play the position. Like he said in 2006, he was overweight and slow. Now, he’s in the best shape of his life and ready to prove something. And guess what, if it somehow doesn’t work out, it’s pretty simple to go out and grab a SS via trade. Why not give Dustin the first shot at the position?
Because
1)Pedroia is already an excellent 2b (second most important position) who will lose value in fielding even with the positional adjustment. He is too small, does not have elite range and cheats to throw hard even at 2b.
2)Hudson is totally overrated. He has not been a good fielder in 4 or so years.
3)Hudson and Scutaro are not just way overrated, they will cost picks because they are type A FAs. They will also want multi-year contracts at highish $$.
Agreed
It would be a mistake to weaken the team defensively up the middle.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Word.
I’d rather be elite at one position and find a stopgap for another instead of possibly being above average at one and still have to sign a stopgap.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 2, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
FYYI
Hudson was not offered Arb. so he will NOT cost a draft pick. Scutaro will, though.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 2, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Gold gloves are, uh, not a great measurement of ability.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 2, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's the nice way of putting it.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Scutaro
is a poor offensive player, so where does this come from? He has been above average once in his career-and that one time has made him a Type A free agent who will cost far too much for what he is really worth. He is a useful utility platoon guy, not a Type-A that will cost picks +$$. Hudson is not very good, and moving Pedroia is likely a bad idea.
Lowrie, if heathy, is almost definitely a better offensive and defensive SS compared to Scutaro. To cover the bases in case he can’t play or can’t play the whole season, a guy like Everett makes the most sense.
if scutaro is a poor offensive player
then everett is a corpse. scutaro has been decent to above average the last several years while playing above average defense. that’s why he’s a type A. Hudson is actually very good, i don’t see the problem with him at all, although i agree that moving pedroia might be a bad idea.
sure lowrie if healthy is the best option, but getting a guy like everett to cover your bases in case he’s hurt doesnt ake a lot of sense because he hasnt played a full season in years.
Not exactly
Scutaro has been below average in offensive production every year of his career except last year — he was slightly above average — and this year, and advanced metrics show him to be an average fielder. He’s a type A not because he’s actually a great pick-up but because the formula for grading free agents is antiquated and the market for shortstops is abysmal.
Hudson is actually an above average hitter, but while his reputation is that of a top defensive player, he hasn’t actually been good with the glove in four years. In fact, the difference in UZR/150 between Pedroia and Hudson this year was 14.3, so bringing in Hudson and shifting Pedroia to short would be a huge drop in defensive quality at second. Pedroia would have to be the second coming of Ozzie Smith at short to make up that kind of difference.
Everett, however, while a below replacement level hitter, is about as good a shortstop as Pedroia is a second baseman. Slightly better, even. And given that our offensive production at short this year wasn’t tremendously more than we could expect from Everett but he more than makes up for it with his defensive acumen, he’d be a step up for the lineup.
I guess the best options, in order, are:
1) Lowrie starts, Everett backs him up
2) Lowrie and Everett platoon
3) Everett starts, Lowrie goes to Pawtucket to get stronger
4) Pedroia moves to short, Hudson signs to play second
5) Scutaro signs for a year if and only if the Jays don’t offer him arbitration
6) Theo signs a lefthanded, 350 pound offensive lineman for the Patriots with no agility to play short
7) Bobby Crosby
offensive production at shortstop
in fact!
red sox 2009 shortstop batting: .234/.297/.655
Adam Everett Career line:.245/.297/.648
Kinda fun how close those two are, isn’t it?
isnt the generell consensus
avg/ OBP/ SLUG ? i guess you posted AVG/OBP/ OPS, cause for a sec i was kinda : woow this guy has power ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 2, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, me too.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
It's a remarkable coincidence
I’m not sure you can expect Everett will live up to his career line next year, though. His line this year was .238/.288/.613, and Bill James projects him for .235/.293/.620 next year. So as I said, what we already got this year from our shortstops at bat wasn’t tremendously more than we could reasonably expect from Everett, but it is slightly more — it’s hard to believe, but Everett has even less power than the guys we had this year. But his defense more than makes up for it.
scutaros OBP has been decent for years
he just has no power, so his OPS is low. i understand that there aren’t many very good SS’s in the league, and that is the reason scutaro is a type A.
i think we’re all a little starved for defense so we’re going a little crazy here. i totally agree that lowrie starting and everett backing him up is a great option. i love the idea of having glove first guys backing up every position. But the words “everett starts” should be banned from the english language.
You are missing the point
First, regardless of OBP, Scutaro’s wOBAs during these “good” offensive years are .331,.310,.316. That’s horrible. A 340-350 OBP with no power is a poor offensive player. Lowrie was better than this with a bum wrist as a rookie (and a better defender to boot). He is a bad hitter, who is marginal in the field. You would sign that guy to a multiyear $$ deal and give up the pick? Why? Lowrie is better offensively and defensively. So you want to sign a worse guy who is a type A for a multi year deal as insurance? I don’t get it.
whatever, forget scutaro
but really the thing that would keep me from wanting him would be giving up the pick. you can’t sign too many type A’s in one offseason unless you’re the yankees, and i have my eye on holliday.
Did you read the fangraphs article on Scutaro?
It said that he had drastically increased patience and control of the strike zone, meaning that it’s likely he actually turned a corner this last season, not that he was just lucky.
So he turned a corner at 34 years old?
Great. He can sign a big contract and his body can promptly fall apart.
Let someone else invest big money in a guy who will be retired in three years.
Wagner to Braves
we get Braves 1st rounder in 2010.
The Sox don't need a big move.
I don’t think we need to make a big acquisition. Assuming Lowrie is healthy and Nick Green re-ups with the Sox, that’d be satisfactory to me. Adam Everett is atrocious offensively, but his defense just about makes up for that, so if Green goes somewhere else, Everett would make a good complement to Lowrie.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
He is atrocious offensively
but not much different than Green. I agree with you as to this being the way to go, but would prefer Everett to Green in the backup role. Otherwise, Green is fine.
WEEI’s Alex Speier has a pretty good break down of the available FA shortstops.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Papi and Manny
This article additionally fails to consider the offensive decline of David Ortiz and loss of Manny Ramirez since 2007. Without the production they contributed, the Sox need to pick up more offense elsewhere and cannot afford to leave holes in the lineup. Defense IS important – don’t get me wrong. But SS defense alone is not responsible for the above-mentioned championships.
The Sox scored more runs last year than
in any year since 2005. That includes the last 2.5 years of Papi and Manny, and includes the best combined year in history of Papi+Manny (a year where they both had OPSs over 1000 and OPS+s over 160), and 2007 when Papi had his best overall offesnive year and the team won the series.
our offense this year was one of our best
our defense and our pitching were our weak points. Pitching will hopefully resolve itself just by having Daisuke in top shape and Buchholz being solid there to start off (hopefully!) but defense needs some positive work to improve it. It was odd in that our defense on the right side of the field was spectacular and on the left side it was terrible.
I still think healthy Lowrie, who can contribute positively on offense on defense is our best option, BUT since we’ll need someone solid to back him up just in case, a defensive shortstop is a much better idea than offensive.
I agree but
I think much of the pitching problems were localized. Take away Smoltz’ blow-ups, Dice-Ks miserable start, a couple of Penney sad affairs and one really horrendous Buchholz outing and suddenly they look pretty damn good!
What? We aren’t allowed to pretend those didn’t happen? Damn …. grumble grumble…
Still, there is a value in pointing that out going forward. We won’t have Smoltz & Penney and both Buchholz and Dice-K looked vastly improved in their returns.
I would also point out that while our offense overall was definitely solid, it did collectively go into hibernation at a pretty inopportune time (the mid-season road stretch against the Rays and the Yankees. If they had hit even a tiny bit better, we would have won several off those games and the season would have unfolded quite differently. Unfortunately, that’s the vagaries of bad luck. Every batter slumps at some point in the season – what are the chances that so many of the team would slump all at that, the worst time together?
There were several bizarre statistical occurrences last year that really affected the season. The above collective hitting slump and Big Papi’s incredibly bad start to the season being the two most notable.
Take away six horrible starts -- and there were a lot more than that -- and the Sox might win 100 games
And that despite horrible defense. But they do that well because when the pitching doesn’t suck, the offense can compete with anyone.
The thing is, by Pythagorean expectation, you would have expected the Sox to win 94-95 games this year, and they won exactly 95. Replace the Smoltz/Penney/early-Dice-K crapfests with even average starts of the sort you’d expect from pitchers of that caliber and the Pythagorean expectation — and the real number of wins — would rise significantly. So if Dice-K doesn’t slack off this offseason and gives us the kind of performance he had as a rookie, which is about what we ought to expect from him, and if Buch continues to improve, the Sox are still contenders, especially if Papi plays the whole year like he did the last few months of this season.
The key is whether they address the holes in the lineup by trying to increase the offensive production — a route not particularly likely to result in great gains over this year — or improve the defense and pitching. A rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buchholz, and Wake and whatever bargain bin free agent they bring in should be one of the best in the league. A pen anchored by Paps — if he stops screwing around and pitches like he did his entire career until this year — and backed up by Bard, Oki, Ramirez, MDC, and a couple of rookies ought to be competitive. So really, the biggest area for improvement is the defense, and the two biggest places where that can be addressed easily are shortstop and left field. Shortstop is easy — if Lowrie is healthy, he’s the best bet, and if not, Everett is a great defensive player. Left field is the big question mark.
We have to improve. Period.
It really does not matter if it comes offensively or defensively. We have to find the most cost-effective way to improve on either side of the ball. In my opinion, defense seems like it will be the best way, but I really would not rule anything out just because we were terrible at certain positions in past years.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
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