Could Dunn get done?
by Scoop1981 on Dec 18, 2009 11:29 AM EST
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I surprised we haven't heard anything about Adam Dunn moving from the lowly Nationals, to the Red Sox or any other team. He signed a $20 mil. 2 year deal with the Nationals before last season, presumably because it was the only offer near that money. I mean, who would want to play for the Nationals? From the Nationals perspective, do they want to pay $12 million to a player in 2010 only to see him walk? What are they waiting for, the tade deadline? I don't know about this strategy, it seems like more teams would be interested in him now as they build teams for the season. The Blue Jays tried to get cute with Halladay last July and had to take less in December.
Dunn had an excellent year in 2009, hitting 38 homers with a .398 OBP and .928 OPS, numbers above his career averages and he is only 30 years old. I was surprised to find he just turned 30 because it seems like he has been around for a while. He may actually be a player on the upswing and is certainly in the prime of his career. I haven't looked at any defensive stats, and I expect you all to slam on his defensive skills, but he has to be a defensive liability to negate this offensive production from first base.
What would it take to get him? Maybe one or two Sox prospects not named Bucholz or Kelly? How many teams would be willing and able to trade a young prospect or two for an expensive rental? I would guess not many. The bad teams with money, Baltimore, Seattle (on the rise?) Cubs, White Sox. come to mind. Maybe the Angels? Again, I'm just surprised we haven't heard anything on Dunn.
Then there are the Red Sox. Let's see...........Dunn or Kotchman?....give me a minute. Clearly the Sox need another bat for the long haul next season. Going into the season with Cameron in left and Kotchman at first, brings "bullpen by committee", 2003 to mind; the Sox are willing to move into a season with obvious holes and patch as they go along. Now this can work, but why wait? Dunn could also be DH insurance if Ortiz is done. All in all, the Sox and other teams should be talking to the Nationals about Dunn, even just to open the discussion for next July.
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A few reasons I don't like
1- just yesterday, the Nat’s reportedly said they have no intention of moving him for now- so they may at midseason, but probably not before.
2- he’s probably the worst fielder in existence. His 17.9 UZR/150 at first from 2010 would counteract all the work Theo has done this far to improve the ballclub defensively (and Theo has made several pointed comments that defense is one of his biggest concerns). Really, I’d rather have Ortiz be our everyday 1B, and that’s not going to happen. He IS a defensive liability. if he did come over, he’s been clear that he doesn’t want to DH, so although next year he’ll probably end up having to take a DH job, he’s bound to test the market first to see if anyone will take him as a position player, meaning that if we got him, we’d have to do it by way of FA anyways.
3
Not sure what the strikethrough was all about so here's another try
A few reasons I don’t like 1- just yesterday, the Nat’s reportedly said they have no intention of moving him for now- so they may at midseason, but probably not before.
2- he’s probably the worst fielder in existence. His 17.9 UZR/150 at first from 2010 would counteract all the work Theo has done this far to improve the ballclub defensively (and Theo has made several pointed comments that defense is one of his biggest concerns). Really, I’d rather have Ortiz be our everyday 1B, and that’s not going to happen. He IS a defensive liability.
3 if he did come over, he’s been clear that he doesn’t want to DH, so although next year he’ll probably end up having to take a DH job, he’s bound to test the market first to see if anyone will take him as a position player, meaning that if we got him, we’d have to do it by way of FA anyways.
Yup
Dunn’s only value is at DH, a position he doesn’t want to play. Dunn’s defense is so bad, it limits his overall value. Dunn was worth 1.2 WAR in each of the last two seasons. That’s not significantly better than Kotchman, who won’t add another $8 million to an already bloated Sox payroll.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Money talks
I’ll be interested how Dunn feels about being a DH when FA rolls around. My take is that he and his agent will talk about him wanting to play in the field but very willing to be a DH for the right team (the one paying the most money).
Think about this, if Ortiz is hitting .220 with 3 homers in late June next season, should the Sox trade for Dunn and release Papi? Dunn could move right into the DH spot for a few months.
Agreed on the final point.
Although the Nat’s have made pretty outrageous trade demands in the past.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Actually
Dunn is so bad in the field that he is almost valuless unless he is a DH. So forget it. Kotchman brings more value at 1b then Dunn does, most likely.
I will say this one more time: the Sox don’t need another bat. They would certainly have a better offense with another bat, but I don’t get where this is coming from. Look at it this way-the team scored a bit more than 870 runs last year. This year we replace Tek with VMart full time and Lugo/Green/Gonzalez with Scutaro. Cameron is basically as good offeisnvely as Lowell (and might play more). Thus, we have upgraded in 2 spots in the lineup. Clearly losing Bay matters. Let’s say that the addition of Scutaro+VMart offset 30% of Bay. So we need to replace 70% of Bay to be basically the same offense as last year. Let’s say that Lowrie or Kotchman provide 20% the runs that Bay could/did. Then you are looking at a team that will score around 820 runs next year. The team will save more than 50 runs (easily) with the better pitching and better fielding they have assembled. The team is thus better as is. Sure, add someone else (Beltre, AGonz) and the team is better still. But any such signing will cost the team 40 million in luxury tax in addition to contract. If that is worth it to tht team, there are better guys than Dunn to do that.
Sox offense in 2009
I’m getting tired about hearing about how great the Sox offense was in 2009. Who actually watches the games? I do, and I can tell you that team struggled to score runs against quality opposition, I don’t care how the cummulative stats add up.
and also
I watch the games as well. You need to remember the whole season.
Look at this page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2009-schedule-scores.shtml
It becomes clear that what the sox struggled against was the AL West, for whatever reason.
We slumped late.
And did not get timely hitting. That does not mean it will happen again.
We all watch the games. When you resort to the tired “Who watches the games?” it tells me you have no legitimate way of arguing your point. Stop reading Dan Shaunessy and start reading some facts. The Sox scored a lot of runs last year. We won a lot of games. And it looks like we should be better next year.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I agree Buzzy
The Sox do not need another bat. With the additions of Scuturo, a full year of VMart and Papi hopefully giving a full year their offense should be much better.
I doubt better
but just fine given the defensive upgrades.
Bay’s bat will be a loss to the offense which Cameron’s doesn’t quite make up for, and the IF corner remains a big question mark, so we’ll have to see how that plays out before really judging the offense for the year.
Better?
Better without Bay and adding Cameron and Scuaro? We don’t know what to expect from Papi? Hope? The only hope is that he evens out the production and does not go into long, dreadful stretches like April – June. Why is there reasonable hope that he will greatly improve his overall production from last season? Is his on the juice again?
I just fear its going to get pretty ugly around here next June when the Bay-less 2010 Sox are struggling to score runs and Ortiz is in the crapper. Remember, Bay had a great early season to help offset Ortiz’ pathetic slump.
I think we will all see that Cam Boogie has better numbers
with the Monster. He will be a doubles machine in Fenway. But true he is not Bay.
Wow.
are you even a red sox fan? there’s no proof david ortiz was ever on steroids. The “list” was proven to be totally unreliable. We can expect a bounce back year from him because of how well he finished the year (.866 OPS in second half). jason bay is overrated, the sox will be fine without him.
40+ years a Red Sox fan
Yes, I’m a huge fan. Guess what, I don’t care if Papi, Manny or anybody else did roids, cuz I believe most big producers from 1995 – 2005 was on the juice. That was then.
I’m just looking for some hope that Papi will be back to form for a whole season, and throwing some sarcasm for fun.
Yes
Better, Geezzzz…. Just having VMart a full year will make them a better hitting team.
As for Papi, he was one of the best AL hitters at the end of the reg season. So there is plenty to think he is can get back to a solid DH numbers.
Until someone shows me proof of Papi doing roids v. some Yankee loving writer paying off a group of lawyers who broke a court order to prove the Red Sox had steroid users, Ill stick with Papi.
Do some research on the subject, go look at the guy who broke the story and how he wont give any names out for sources but its obvious the person is from one of the law firms in the case. SO his source is a guy who is committing a felony and will not come out and verify the accusation bc he does want to go to the Fed Pen for 6 years. Very reliable.
Dunn
I thought the GM for the Nationals just said they were not looking to deal Dunn. To me Dunn just doeskin work right now. I wanted him as a replacement for Papi, but since Papi turned it around last season I see no spot for Dunn.
Plus, I have to take back a prior opinion. I said the Sox have unlimited money to sign players, this is not true. The magic number is 170 million which is the highest you can go without getting slapped by the Luxury cap tax. So Dunn’s deal would put them over and Theo is not going over 170.
So no Dunn, no Miggy C..
in fact Theo finding a few spare nickels on the ground
may put them over the limit, so they’re either done dealing or going to move some salary.
Salary "limit"
Remember, they are trying to dump Lowell’s salary; there’s Dunn’s $12 mil right there. If they trade Oritz and $$, they can get relief there too.
they're not dumping Lowell's salary
they’re trading him for Max Ramirez and $3 mill of salary relief. So no, that’s not Dunn’s salary there.
If Ortiz is hitting poorly enough that he’s not worth keeping around midseason, then we aren’t going to get any relief from him. There are very few teams out there that would be interested in a DH who can’t hit. Someone would no doubt pick him up off waivers to give him a shot, but no one would give more than league minimum for him.
I doubt anyone is taking Papi on
He is at the end of a contract, so he is only attractive to a playoff team.
Plus, I think the GM for the Nationals said Dunn is off limits. The time to get Dunn was last season, with his number in 2009 the price would be crazy.
Dunn was only a slightly better hitter than Jason Bay
And Adam Dunn makes Jason Bay look like a Gold Glover. Only one team seems to be interested in Bay. So, I can’t imagine Dunn’s price would be crazy. If the Sox don’t bring Papi back after 2010, I can’t see them spending money on a full time DH like Dunn. More likely, the Sox will rotate players at DH to keep them fresh.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
I dont know what you are debating
As I said earlier Dunn makes no sense for the Red Sox now, he only made sense if they had to release Papi in 09. Bay is a FA, not under control by the Red Sox. So yes, Dunn would cost a lot to get.
GM did say he wont traded Dunn, which also leads to my remarks that he would be expensive to obtain. Plus he only makes 8 million for being a better hitter in a lineup with zero protection and the focal point of every opposing team.
And even if Jason Bay is a better player or worth more by some stat line, Dunn was easier to obtain last season than in 2010.
I think you missed the point
Dunn was never an option for the Sox. He made no sense for them prior to the 2009 season. The Sox already had a dedicated DH, Papi. He isn’t worth trading for, and he makes no sense for the future because he will decline and I can’t see the Sox signing a big money, dedicated DH.
The Sox worried about Bay’s “old man skills.” That’s one of the reasons they didn’t want to give him big money/years. If you look at Dunn’s stat line, you see the same. I can’t see the Sox taking on Dunn at any time, unless he is dirt cheap.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 19, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Salary relief
Are you sure they wouldn’t get the entire salary off the books for tax purposes? They are including the $$ in the trade. I don’t know, but without a detailed “cap” I assume this is the case.
Dunn as FA
OK, the Sox let Ortiz walk a year from now; would the Sox pursue Dunn with Ortiz/Lowell money ($12 mil+) for 3 years to be DH?
If he will DH that sounds like a good idea.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I can't see the Sox spending big money for a player that can only DH
If they bring Papi back after 2010, it’ll be at a discount. If not, it’s more cost-efficient to rotate players at DH. Ortiz in his prime was a special player. Few players had or have his value at DH. An aging Adam Dunn definitely doesn’t.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 19, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
The Nat’s didn’t pay too much for him. Maybe we wouldn’t either.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Big money?
What exactly is big money? $10-12 mil. a year for 2-3 years for a 30 year old 40 homer guy does not sound like big money in this league
It is for a player whose defense is so bad it limits his value
Dunn was worth 1.2 WAR in each of the past two seasons. According to Fangraphs, which tends to overvalue players by dollars, Dunn was worth between $5.2 and $5.4 million a year the past two seasons. $10-12 million is also a lot to pay for a dedicated DH. When Ortiz got his money he was in his prime, and was a LOT better than Adam Dunn. Another thing to worry about with Dunn are his “old man” skills. He likely won’t age well. I think the Sox should—and will—pass on him.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 23, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
After-post research
OK, here is a snippet from mlbtraderumors.com, Ben Nicholson-Smith 11/15/09 -
“Since 2007, no fielder has cost his team more runs than Adam Dunn, according to Matthew Carruth of FanGraphs. Dunn will make $12MM in 2010 before becoming a free agent. It’s hard to imagine him signing with an NL club again after next season. "
I was going to make three replies but I'll sum them all up in this one
1- yes they don’t get the whole salary off the books for tax purposes. They are still on the hook for Lugo for tax purposes as well, and the option buyouts of Wagner and Alex Gonzalez. The way the luxury tax is calculated is somewhat odd.
2- It’s entirely possible. Personally I’d rather see a good hitter who can field a position if need be, but Dunn is a great DH option
3- yeah, like I said, I’m quite sure that he’ll end up as a DH, I’m just saying he doesn’t want to, so he will probably explore the market to see if anyone will take him on in left or first, so if they sox signed him, they’d probably have to sign him as a FA anyways, so would have no gain in that regard from having him the second half of the year.
Dunn in '11, not '10
I like Dunn as a replacement for Ortiz in 2011 if it’s not worth picking up his ‘11 option. Unless (in the unlikely event) they get him for a very prospect friendly salary dump deal, I’d rather pursue other internal and external corner infield options.
Way, Way too much concern over Sox $$
Why the constant harping over payroll? Yes, money/payroll does matter, but only to the extent it is spent wisely. Why get up in arms about the Sox spending when Theo himself (I heard it myself) came out to say said Drew is worth more (in market value) then they pay him and they are are happy to throw money, but not years, at Smoltz, Penny, etc.
Can anybody name a player they wanted but coudn’t afford? They wanted to give Texeira $180 million just a year ago. What contract has hurt them? Hell, they pay other teams to take the bad cotracts so they can move on. While we don’t like the poor Renteria/Lugo choices, as fans we should applaud them for taking the hit to make a better team now.
payroll matters when you get to the 170 million dollar
mark, then you get hit with a 22.5% tax. So sure payroll until that level doesnt matter but I would shocked if Theo went over and forced FO to pay another 22.5%.
well 22.5% of what goes over
so if he went a dollar over, they’d have to pay $1.23.
Theo has said that his goal is to stay under the luxury tax though, so that is probably the dollar limit. Scoop, people are focusing on that because that’s probably the limit so it limits our additional moves.
Agree totally with wolf and SA
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 19, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yup. I do, too.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
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