Will Kotchman be the Red Sox starting First Baseman for 2010?
by wolf9309 on Dec 17, 2009 10:12 AM EST
in News
191 comments
According To Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, there's a good chance he will be.
In an article from Wednesday night, Edes says that the Red Sox have pretty much withdrawn themselves from negotiations for 3B Adrian Beltre because they are unhappy with the price Scott Boras is asking for him.
Kotchman played very little for the Sox since coming over last year, but did not perform well, hitting just .218. The thinking is probably that given more regular playing time, he could be a much more productive member of the club.
This certainly goes along with Theo's comments that he is not in a huge rush for a big bat, and that if they decide they need one, it is easier to obtain one in the middle of the season than a starting pitcher. Perhaps he is really high on Adrian Gonzalez and thinks the price for him will drop significantly over the course of the year if the Padres decide they are definitely not contending.
Personally, I think that this is too great of a offensive drop, and though Kotchman plays a great first base, Youk isn't good enough at third to justify moving him over to third without someone really exceptional at first base. I'd rather see us nix the Mike Lowell deal and give him another shot at third with his hip recovering, though I also don't care for that idea.
It is, of course, always possible that this is a bargaining tactic to help lower Beltre's price.
What do you think? Is this a viable option, a dumb decision, or a bargaining tactic?
0 recs |
191 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Boras is as Boras does
Scott Boras, as we all know, is known for delaying and delaying because he thinks it will drive up his player’s cost (and, therefore, his commission).
I think it wise not to play his game. Use the Kotchman and Lowell options as viable ones, and when Beltre’s cost drops, grab him then. If someone else snatches him first, well, that happens. I do think that if Kotchman had more at-bats, he’d be a better producer. And I remain a tad optimistic that Lowell will mend enough to be valuable at the plate and not too much of a detriment on the field. The Marlins had written him off and he turned out great for us.
I’ve made it clear around the site that I want Beltre. I would have much rather us slightly over-pay for him rather than Lackey, but what’s done is done and now we must play the Boras game.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
yup
I really question Theo’s logic if Kotchman will be our starting 1B. Why spend 21.5M on Lackey next year, if our 1B might be Kotchman, just makes zero sense. Its all just a part of the who blinks first game with Boras. I’m very positive that Kotchman wont be our starting 1B, if that happens HUGE FAIL by Theo.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 17, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
well
by getting Lackey, he preserves chips (prospects) to deal for a corner bat.
If you feel that they were already strong enough at starting pitching before they got Lackey, then another way of looking at the Lackey acquisition is that they basically purchased the ability to trade prospects. Without Lackey, they would not be able to move Buchholz without creating a huge hole in the rotation. With Lackey, they are able to trade Buchholz, if needed.
I believe that they would still prefer to keep Buchholz, but getting Beltre for just cash, but if that fails they can deal Buchholz in a package for Adrian Gonzalez.
At this point, I believe that both Boras (for Beltre) and Hoyer (for A-Gon) are asking a bit more than Theo wants to pay. He can wait both out with the idea that Kotchman will play (hence why they re-signed Kotchman a couple of weeks ago) until the trading deadline and play each option against each other. So basically, he’s created leverage with which to deal with both options and hopefully one will move in his favor.
Or...
…he lost leverage by tying up a bunch of cash (a @#$%ing BUNCH of cash) on a position that was relatively far down on the Needs List, thereby potentially pricing us out of contention for important parts to the puzzle.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Hard to argue
That pitching depth wasn’t a need after the stuff we trotted out last year….were you really willing to trust Dice-K, Wakefield, Buchholz as 3/5 of our rotation and/or take a flier on Harden or Sheets?? Theo got lambasted on message boards for wasting time and money on the Brad Pennys and John Smoltzes of the world.
The Message Boards, even.
were you really willing to trust Dice-K, Wakefield, Buchholz as 3/5 of our rotation
Yes, Maybe, and Yes.
Dice-K’s year was certainly unexpected, and most expect him back with a vengeance this year. He finished the year very strong. Buchholz is really coming into his own, his body language is much different, his confidence is much better, and I have absolute faith in him in the upcoming year. Wake…well, I love Wake but he is getting older and has had some injury issues. He’s a question mark.
Smoltz admittedly shit the bed last year, but I still contend that Penny was not a bad signing. He pitched well at the beginning of the year, but was a #5 starter being forced into a #3 role. Both were worth the shot.
I don’t like that we are paying a guy Ace Money to be our #3 starter when he’s seemingly on a decline already. Our glaring needs to start the offseason were 3rd base and LF and Bay’s bat or one to compensate for it. We’re in the MFY money range and those needs remain un-met (although the aging Cameron might fit the LF requirement).
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
you seem to be indicating that
the best way to replace Bay’s offense is with a FA – that is, Bay or Holliday, and are lamenting the use of that cash for Lackey (pitching). Is that correct?
If so how much would you have given for either?
How is that preferable to replacing Bay’s offense with say, A-Gon, while upgrading the defense significantly all around (and taking no worse than a wash at starting pitching, assuming it becomes a case of swapping Lackey in for Buchholz)?
Do you believe that Buchholz will be a tremendously better pitcher over the next few years than Lackey? Long run, I believe so. But for immediate return, Lackey should be as good or better. I don’t believe he will be complete dog meat.
You have to take in the long run, since it's a 5 year contract
I will start by admitting that I just don’t like John Lackey and that I have a soft spot for young Clay. I will not insult your intelligence by suggesting that that does not factor into my sentiments.
That said, yes, I do not like that the money was spent on Lackey instead of a bat. My personal preference was Holliday, and I’d’ve been good with 5/95 or something. I had great visions of him in our line-up.
It is preferable to A-Gon for a couple reasons. Firstly, yes, giving up Buchholz. In the first year of Lackey’s contract he may be better than Clay. But after that, I feel Clay gets better and Lackey gets worse. Is Lackey complete dog meat, no, but when you’re talking about value for your money, Clay gives you much more.
Also, with A-Gon, you end up having to move Youk from 1st to 3rd, which I don’t consider ideal. Youkilis is a stellar 1st baseman, but many feel his body type won’t hold up over the years as a 3rd baseman and word around these parts is that he is currently only a average to just-above-average 3rd baseman anyhow.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I was just skimming through Beyond the Boxscore
And they mentioned the latest contract at 5/80
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Tommy Petty
Says your living a dream if you think the Sox had any chance at landing Holliday. From the beginning Boras has stated he is looking for a Texira type contract for his client.
It’s clear some times we put or want unrealistic goals from our teams. And can’t see the bigger picture when the team improves and doesn’t convert the player fans want. Case in point, Phillie fans, they are in an uproar over trading C. Lee to the Mariners. Mainly because what he did for the club in the post season. Well they don’t realize Lee wasn’t going to sign with Philly so instead they went out and got the best pitcher in baseball and signed him to a 4 year contract. But most fans don’t see it that way.
According to Yahoo!
Lee thought he was going to stay in Philly… Might just be PR to be kind to the fans, but interesting since I don’t believe the Mariners were involved with anything going to Toronto, so I’m not sure why the M deal had to be done if Lee didn’t want to leave.
"Boras has stated"
Seriously? Boras makes a LOT of statements. And he’s ALWAYS blowing up the value of his clients. He was looking for 4 to 5 years and an assload of money for Manny last year. What did he get? 5 million more than if he hadda just stayed in Boston over the same number of years. What Boras wants and what people are actually willing to pay him are not always the same figure. Of course we had a chance at Holliday…Boras was counting on it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
okay, so setting aside your man-hate for Lackey
we actually see the deal in similar terms, except that I don’t think that they would have gotten Holiday for as cheaply. Impossible to know for sure. Even if Holliday now goes for a cheaper deal, partly that would because the Sox pulled themselves out of the market.
We also both would really like for them to keep Buchholz.
My preferred solution from this point is to get Beltre and keep Buchholz for the long haul.
Yup, that's my preferred solution in the present as well.
Like I said at the top, what’s done is done.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
"when he's seemingly on the decline"
well that’s the real rub right there……Lackey’s performance will deem whether or not it was money well spent.
Obviously.
At least in part.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
And yet the Penny and Smoltz moves weren't bad in their thought process.
Just poor results in the end. There’s no reason to think Buchholz isn’t trustworthy as a #3. Daisuke’s year was a fluke after the WBC, and he came back strong. Wakefield is a very good #5. Sign a guy like Duch, Bedard, or Sheets to make Wake a swingman and you’ve got a very good rotation. Lackey makes it better, but it’s a luxury.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Penny and Smoltz signings were good
They just didn’t pan out. Theo new they would be a risk when he signed them, but the value was there. It’s just unfortunate they didn’t work.
I would disagree on Smoltz...
I think the problem was the expectation, there was alot of PR hype on Smoltz, but he isn’t the same pitcher he was with the Braves, and he could handle pitching in the AL East..
I think Penny was a wash. I would had been up for keeping him as long as he lost some weight, but I think he made the right move in going to the NL West.
Quick question
Did you play for the Elmira Pioneers “back in the day”?
I think Boras will come around..
What other teams are interested in Beltre? How much can they spend? Boras’s technique will work when he has two or three team bidding against each other. When he has only one, like with ManChild Ramirez and the Dodgers, it become silly and redundant.
One team that should be interested in Beltre is the MFA, but either Tony Regains or Arte Morteno refuse to deal with Boras. I don’t know what the Phillies are doing, but they need a third baseman.
Boras uses stall tactic to build up tension. It is silly, because he creating a bit of alienation with the teams he is dealing with. It also seems he pissed off way too many people during the Teixiera sweepstakes.
True about the Angels, False for the Phillies
Philadelphia signed Placido Polanco and they are planning on starting him at 3B. The Angels could use Beltre but you’re correct in that they hate Scott Boras’ negotiations.
yep the Angels have Brandon Wood
so why should they go after Beltre when one of their best prospects can play 3B? They should use that money to improve starting pitching.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 17, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Theo
if only we could get in his head……or at least be a fly on the wall
who knows at this point but he has a few pieces of trade bait/emergency options
+1
Youk isn’t good enough at third to justify moving him over to third without someone really exceptional at first base.
Kotchman is not an option, except for late inning defensive upgrades, to be a full-time player at first.
Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
Is Youk really not that good at 3rd?
I mean he came up as a third baseman. Now I am very far from knowledgeable about UZR and UZR/150 but according the fan graphs over Youk’s career:
2004 65 games 6.8 UZR 18.7 UZR/150
2005 24 games 0.4 UZR 3.4 UZR/150
2006 16 games -1.0 UZR -7.7 UZR/150
2007 13 games 0.8 UZR 6.9 UZR/150
2008 36 games 4.8 UZR 22.6 UZR/150
2009 63 games -1.6 UZR -5.4 UZR/150
Compared to his time at 1b:
2005 9 games 0.6 UZR 10.3 UZR/150
2006 127 games 0.6 UZR 0.9 UZR/150
2007 135 games 8.6 UZR 10.3 UZR/150
2008 125 games 2.5 UZR 4.0 UZR/150
2009 78 games 5.7 UZR 15.2 UZR/150
While he clearly seems better at first, has it been shown that he’s not good at third? Is there anything specific that would prevent him from being as good at third is he didn’t have to shuffle back and forth?
To be clear I’m not trying to make a point with the numbers, but rather would like some insight into what they actually mean.
it's not that he's a bad third baseman
he’s just generally considered average to a bit above average. He is also looking less comfortable as he ages. It’s more of the fact that his defense at 1st is exceptional.
UZR has a good amount of flaws, and I think first base is one of the positions it is more flawed it, I don’t think it judges first basemen very well.
He’s not bad at third, just I don’t think what Kotchman brings to the table is enough to make up for the offensive loss we will have at the corners.
In total, that's not much more than a full season of games at 3B
So we really can’t say anything conclusive about Youk’s defense at the position. I think he’d at least be average, and possibly quite good at 3B full time.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
No Scotch for Kotch
Agree, Kotchman is not an option for a club with these kinds of expectations. A two-week fill-in? Perhaps. Two or three months? No way.
I too would just assume they keep Lowell around if Kotchman is the answer. You can give Kotchman some of Lowell’s at bats, particularly on the road and against RHs, but I would just assume have Lowell in there most of the time.
And If Beltre can’t be secured at a reasonable cost and Lowell does go through, I would prefer giving a shot to Atkins over Kotchman. Casey Kotchman isn’t quite a AAAA player but he is pretty close.
Atkins is Baltimore now.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Plus
I’m not convinced Atkins is better than Kotch. Atkins can’t hit anymore and is a butcher at third. Kotchman hit much better in his composite season (ATL-BOS) than Atkins did at MFY-West. Plus Kotchman is a legit plus defender at first.
I wouldn’t be thrilled with Kotch at first, but it could be worse. Much worse.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 17, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Coors Field = MFY stadium
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
MFY Stadium == South Williamsport
freaking little league ball park
Williamsport
Never robbed 1.5 billion from taxpayers.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Hahaha and that gigantic green wall 310 ft down the LF line
is what? Far away? Fenway and YSII are basically mirror images of each other. Get a grip
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 17, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
No comparison
Ball hit to LF in fenway is a double…sometimes a single! if played correctly by the OFer. Balls hit to RF in New York? Well just look at Johnny Damon
They aren't the same stadiums
Much like Wrigley isn’t the same stadium in the spring/fall as it is in the summer.
The MFY have to change the RF fence from straight to concave, they also have to do something about the wind currents and patterns.
Fenway is probably more like the Polo Grounds in New York, than Coors Park East, with the short foul poles. the Left Center Field triangle, and the Concave RF..
Fenway has always been a doubles park. Citizen Bank Park with it small power allies make it a home run park. Ditto with Wrigley when the wind is blowing west to east in the summer.
Much like Giant’s stadium may have a short right porch, but they also have the bunch of cold winds off the bay coming in, and it makes the park pretty much a pitcher’s park.
What makes Fenway a hitter’s park, isn’t the distance but the lack of foul territory. If it had more foul territory, (Which means a new ballpark) the pitching stats would look more Oakland Coliseum like, and of course diminished batting stats.
Foul territory, wind patters, temperatures, solar flares, harvest moon etc.
The biggest mitigating factor is the wall in LF. I’m not condemning it or anything like that. I’m just saying those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones neither team plays in Petco. Heck, if you want to really get into it, look at the Park factors. It has Fenway rated at 1.072 (favoring hitters) and YSII at 0.965 (favoring pitchers) including the crazy high HR rate.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 3:28 AM EST up reply actions
cough cough...
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor//sort/HRFactor
/sort/doublesFactor" target="_blank">http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/doublesFactor
Oh I know, I'm not denying that YSII
isn’t a favorable hitters park , I admitted as much in my previous comment. It’s even exacerbated by the fact they can have 6 or 7 powerful lefties in the regular lineup vs RHP on any given day. Anyway, the only reason I even said anything is just to point out that a Sox fan calling someone elses stadium a “little league park” is laughable.
-—————
Sidenote.. apparently ESPN doesn’t weigh a HR differently than a 2b and 3b when doing that park factor thing? Yeah, YSII is mad low on the doubles and triples columns because they’re artificially deflated by falling in for homeruns.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't it YSIII?
By my count:
The House That Ruth Built
The House That Steinbrenner Renovated
The House The Taxpayers Built
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Eh, if you get your house renovated you don't call it a new house.
And yes, City and State of New York paid the entire construction bill for the new stadium. They tore down schools, parks and homeless shelters, massacred indigenous unicorns, kittens and puppies and then eminent domain’d the shit out of a bunch of Native Americans. And it was awesome and now we have a brand new stadium for free.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
the unicorns! THINK OF THE UNICORNS!
It is kinda funny when people that aren’t in NYC get upset about that, though I can certainly understand any Red Sox fans in NYC getting angry about it.
You do if it's entirely new
Ans YSII was. It had entirely different dimensions and seating capacity. The two stadiums looked different. Even home plate was in a different spot. YSII was a bad, 1970s stadium.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
YS II (ie the remodel)
Was financed by Mayor Lindsey
The a partner of the architect firm of Praeger-Kavanaugh-Waterbury, Emil Praeger designed Dodger Stadium, I don’t know his input on Yankee Stadium..
It was the House that Mickey Rivers built…
You are right, it isn't a little league park
It is more of a pony league park…
They just got to fidget with the right field fence
Be serious
One was fit into the existing streets of Boston. The other stole open parkland from one of the poorest neighborhoods in New York City to build a pathetic clone of what had been a glorious structure.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 17, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Dude they're ripping the old stadium down and re-making it
into parkland. Your faux outrage at anything yankee related is funny.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 3:04 AM EST up reply actions
In 2-3 years
So, for 5 years the Bronx will have, I believe, zero parkland.
On proper baseball knowledge I’m hit-and-miss, but believe me, I understand ballparks. Faux Yankee Stadium is an atrocity on par with Penn Station as an architectural desecration committed in the name of progress in NYC.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Don't say dumb shit when you don't know what you're talking about.
No parkland in the Bronx? Again, a nice narrative to tell in Boston but not even remotely true. Franz Seigel, Joyce Kilmer, Mullaly and Macombs Dam are all public parks within 3 blocks of the new stadium. It took me about 5 seconds to look that up. Come on man.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Dude, you are such a homer.
The New Yankee Stadium was built on top of live kittens. You @#$%ers.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
With a $250,000 a Legends Seat
you can get a kitten souffle.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 18, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
come on now
if YSII had a 37 foot wall you’d havea point.
Not that I think it’s a valid point for either side. As a Red Sox fan, I think it’s just stupid for a team to not build a park suited for a particular type of player and then stack your team to include a lot of that type of player. That’s just common sense. That’s where home field advantage comes from.
Beltre or Gonzalez
Are the only two options that should prevent Lowell from being to third baseman next year.
What if we find some other player who can actually field the position?
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
And who would that be?
I suppose it was a bit ridiculous as a blanket statement, but Lowell was still pretty decent in field in 08. He’ll have time to heal over the off season. It’s very possible that the Sox have medical reports that indicate that he’ll never return to form, but from what I’ve read he should never have been expected to be in full health through out the season, most people needing a year to fully recover from his surgery.
I thought it was interesting
that the Rangers medical team said his hip passed inspection but got caught up on his thumb.
I wonder if he’s doing better, or if their expectations for his hip were just low.
Just hypothetically
I think saying that Beltre, Gonzo and Lowell are the ONLY options undersells the possibilities. Theo isn’t much for out of the blue moves (or that’s what I would’ve said prior to Lackey, I guess), but who knows who else could be out there.
Shame Atkins even after a crap year is gone now.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Kouzmanoff COULD be an option
Good fielding 3rd Baseman with an avg bat +wRC of 98 and yeah he play for the Padres!
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 17, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Don't forget
M. Cabrera is still a possibility.
at this point in the offseason
Cabrera’s $20 million for 2010 would cost us 24.5 million because of the CBT we would be exceeding. That amount would go up in the future. I think Cabrera is pretty much a given that he won’t happen, even ignoring the fact that Detroit has no desire to get rid of him.
Lowrie
I don’t think Lowrie can be dismissed as an option at 3rd, but there’s a ton of questions surrounding that. It should at least be on the table.
It still feels like 2010 will be a “bridge”. Lackey fell into our laps and so we jumped on him. Other than that, I don’t see any more big signings this offseason – hope I’m wrong.
If he's healthy
I’m not against Lowrie at 3B.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
by Randy Booth on Dec 17, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like it, BUT
that probably involves Kotchman starting the first few weeks, and relies a little too heavily on hoping Lowrie is healthy for my taste.
Kotchman playing 1B for a few weeks won't be a disaster
If it became 2-3 months, we might have an issue. But if Beltre and Gonzalez don’t pan out, and the Lowell trade goes through, I think Lowrie at 3B becomes the team’s best option.
Nobody on the Casey Kotchman train? I am
I would not be upset with Casey Kotchman as the Red Sox’s Opening Day first baseman.
With that said, Kotch would only be the 1B if Youk is the 3B — which I don’t really like. That’s not very appetizing to me. Youk isn’t a 3B anymore; I don’t think he could hold up there over a whole season.
Kotch is a starting first baseman for a lot of baseball teams. He plays great defense and isn’t THAT bad with the bat. He doesn’t strikeout a lot and shows decent patience at the plate. We could also see how Kotch does FULL-TIME playing in Fenway Park. The results may surprise you.
To sum up: Kotch at first = I’m fine with. Youk at third = ehh.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
I'm not usually all aboard the power train
but I do think that with Cameron instead of Bay, we need 1B to be a position with decent power. Kotchman isn’t an easy out, but I don’t think provides enough production to make up for moving Youk to third.
We could also see how Kotch does FULL-TIME playing in Fenway Park. The results may surprise you.
A pull hitter lefty with a little bit of pop is not good for Fenway and the results will be mediocre!
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
This is a completely hypothetical question. If we don’t sign Beltre, start Kotchman at first, and the Padres are not contending for the playoffs, do you think that Theo would trade Buccholz for Adrian Gonzalez at the deadline?
I have a feeling that starting Kotchman at first is similar to starting Green at short last year. I feel that if we don’t sign a 1B now, first could turn into our revolving door at shortstop. And then Theo might need to bring in a replacement (a la Gonzo last year) in August.
One final question, if we don’t sign a 1B this year, are there any quality/power first basemen who will be free agents in 2010?
These are just some of my thoughts from the past few days.
Well,
If Theo would trade Buchholz + Lots Extra for Gonzalez now, (and nothing changes in terms of player projections in the first few months) then he’d certainly trade Buchholz for Gonzalez straight up at the deadline. Adrian will have lost about 1/4 of his value and Buchholz will have lost only about 1/7. Removing extra prospects/players will certainly cover the difference.
Carlos Pena will be a FA in 2010
The thing about a mid-year deal
Is that if Buchholz progresses noticeably towards being that #1 starter type, Theo won’t deal him.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think it depends on how Buchholz performs during the 2010 season...
If Buchholz is light outs, there is no way he is going to be traded, if he is “Meh”, then he may be gone. The Sox have held on to Buchholz through every hot stove trade rumor, The only player at this moment that I would offer Buchholz and a couple others is King Felix.
Look at the free agent list, there is one FA 1B that jumps out at me and he will definitely come cheaper than Beltre at 3B, adam Laroche. I know he was on the Sox Roster for about 5 games last year before being traded; but that was because the just wasn’t any room for him. Now there most definitely is. He has some pop, 25 HR last year, and hits for average about the same the Same as Bay .277. He has a decent glove. If it doesn’t work out, he can be bundelled with a couple of products and Buck, or Ells and shipped to SD or detroit for a Big stick.
Interesting
I think there’s potential there. LaRoche > Kotchman when it comes to a starter, but Kotchman > LaRoche when it comes to a backup. Might work…
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
by Randy Booth on Dec 17, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
I love LaRoche.
He’s one of my favorite first basemen around.
Problem is, he’s looking for a 3 year, $31 million deal. Unless that comes down significantly, we could probably get Beltre for that, which I think is a better option. Laroche is also historically terrible before July and amazing after- look at the splits, they’re kind of ridiculous.
geeze I have to stop agreeing with you so much
but that whole post was stolen from me before I could type it!
Knock it off!
Article, kotchy, etc.
This quote is what i wanted to write, only better.
("wolf9309) “Personally, I think that this is too great of a offensive drop, and though Kotchman plays a great first base, Youk isn’t good enough at third to justify moving him over to third without someone really exceptional at first base. I’d rather see us nix the Mike Lowell deal and give him another shot at third with his hip recovering, though I also don’t care for that idea.”
Perfect. i agree 100%. good write.
for 2010, I like lowery as a back up infielder – 2b, ss, 3b. but i look for him to start the season in the minors. we may never see him at boston in 2010.
if lowery starts off in the minors, it would explain the rumor i started that julio is coming back to the sox as a backup infielder – what the heck, we pay him anyway, no sense on adding salary for a backup.
i read a bittie about some Venezuelan scout saying max sucks, so, at this point i hope lowell stays. if you think about it, we already wrote off $9m of his salary, so we would be paying him $3.5m. about what we will pay kotcher. lowell would be a good corner backup, including 1st base.
ideally, we get one of the adrians – gonzo or beltre. although beltre had his best offense during the steroid years, and we keep lowell as backup.
yeah, even ignoring the steroid year of 2003
his ROAD splits are very solid.
Its not only Safeco that have hurt his numbers – his other home park was Dodger Stadium.
Fenway would be a huge boost to his numbers.
If Kotchman is the starter, I wouldn't mind it
I like him a lot, ever since his 2007 season where he hit .296 / .372 / .467. The Sox could also spell him with Victor Martinez.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
i wouldn't mind starting the season with kotchman,
but there better be a deadline deal. You can’t significantly downgrade offensively at two positions and expect great things.
Left field and ?
3rd base wasn’t a big offensive position last year.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
well we'd be downgrading at first and left
but upgrading at short and catcher. And defensively upgrading a bunch.
I think we'll get Beltre
Let’s see what are the other teams that may be interested in signing him:
AL East:
Jays: No (they have Encarnacion and Wallace)
O’s: No, They got Atkins and they have Bell from LAD for which they traded their closer.
Rays: Of course No
MFY: No
AL Central
Twins: Maybe but they won’t commit to much money as they’re preparing for the extension of that Catcher next year.
Tigers: No
KC: No
CHWS: No
AL West:
M’s: No, they signed Figgins
LAAAAAAAA: No, they believe in the overrated Wood
Texas: No
A’s: Maybe
NL East:
Natinals: No
Mets: No
Phillies: No
Braves:No
NL Central
Brewers: Maybe
Cardinals: Maybe
Cubs: No
Pirates: No
NL West:
Giants: Maybe by moving Kung-Fu Panda to 1st but you never know when it comes to Sabean.
Dodgers: No
Padres: No
Rockies: No
So basically, there’s not a lot of options for Boras to shop him around and by having “other” options, Theo’s has leverage in the negociations. If Lowell is moved, we’ll be the favorites to get him.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
I agree with all of this excpet the A's
If no one else was interested I could see them signing him, but they’re not going to overpay and we could easily top their offer by a small amount.
That's the point of my post
The other contenders for Beltre’s service all “light weights” and their offer won’t certainly not match Lucifer Boras demands.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Ha ha.
“Natinals”.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
So the two teams interested in Beltre are..
The Sox and the Giants,, that isn’t much of a bidding war
Which is why I have no reason to believe we'll cave to Boras.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
If Beltre was a better hitter.
The Sox would cave to Boras, because there would be more teams interested in Beltre.
The Giants have a payroll $40 million less than the Sox, and they probably need to save cash if they want to sign Lincecum in the future. The Giants I think still have PTSD from the Zito contract, They haven’t been in a major player in recent free agent signings, just the regular general inquiries. Bay’s agent pretty much turn them down flat.
The Cincinnati Reds still exist
I know it’s hard to remember them, but they are still a team in the NL Central.
Facepalm too
They signed Feliz so no interest from their part. Other team? Les Expos?
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Sight
D-Backs: Reynolds so No!
Marlins: Bonifacio and they have in Dominguez the “next GG 3rd baseman” so No
Indians: Rebuilding mode so I guess No
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
I forgot them
Facepalm!
Anyway, they have Rolen so they too are not interrested
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
another team with serious cash problems...
Cincinnati is the smallest MLB market. Their owner knows his finances, but Cincinnati is always going to be a small market team, with year to year w-l fluctuation.
AND they have Scott Rolen for one year contract. Actually I bet you Theo have inquired about him and Votto for that matter.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
I'd love Votto
Young, cost-controlled, and improving. I’d give up a lot for him, but he’s exactly the type of player the Reds need to keep.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 17, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
that reminds me
of our desperate need for a legitimate backup catcher. if victor catcher significantly more than half the games then his offense will decline. we need someone to catch sixty games and not drag the entire team to the depths of hell when he does.
Mark Wagner Mark Wagner Mark Wagner Mark Wagner
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
This This This This
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
not a bad option since he is very strong defensively…..very streaky hitter though but i would have no problem with him being the backup if he continues his defensive excellence……….mainly throwing runner out-something i dunno if the Sox have ever been able to do
Great game calling too
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
fine by me.
haven’t heard a whisper outside of this website of them doing that though.
if 'Tek is coming off the bench
do we think his performance will improve slightly over last two years?
Older, true.
But fresh legs? That’s gotta help his throws to second, right? (he said hopefully)
Any comparables out there? Anything on Fisk’s transition from everyday to bench catcher?
His defense won't improve
Tek is bad behind the plate.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 17, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
i think it's possible
but unlikely it will be drastic improvement. Rarely do players improve because they aren’t in there hitting and playing every day. Usually the opposite.
I highly doubt Tek will be there beyond the All-Star Break in favor of someone like Wagner or possibly Ramirez if he’s around.
yeah, that was pure grasping
Its hard not to WANT Tek to be able to do something positive to justify still being around.
well one positive
I imagine he’ll mostly only be playing against lefties- that alone will improve his batting. For a switch hitter, his splits are pretty bad.
I actually don’t mind the idea of against lefties, have Tek catch and Martinez DH, and let Ortiz sit. Plays to everyone’s strengths. Of course, that’s dependent on what happens in the corner- if it’s Beltre at third, I love that idea.
Hard to project Kotchman
But I have a feeling that a full season for Kotchman would be like a full season of a Lyle Overbay.
Choices
Let’s say the choices are (a) give up the farm – and I mean the farm (Buchholz, Kelly and Westmoreland) for someone like Adrina Gonzalez or (b) Start with Kotchman and at mid-season go for a trade……would option (b) really be that bad?
The 09 iteration started scored 872 runs which was 3rd best in the AL behind the Yanks and Angels. That was with numerous PAs given to Julio Lugo(123), Jason Varitek(425), Nick Green(309) and a good chunk of PAs to a “Lugo-like” Ortiz for most of the season.
Replace those PAs with Scutaro and Martinez and hopefully a better Ortiz and they could offset the dropoff between Bay-Lowell to Cameron-Kotchman.
Even if the Sox score 70 less runs which would be likely, its also highly likely that with defensive upgrades and Lackey those 70 runs would not matter.
Caveat
Let me caveat that with the fact that I would prefer a Youkilis/Beltre combo over Youkilis/Kotchman….I just don’t see Kotchman starting at 1B that much of a drop-off in the Win factor
I agree
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 17, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
I have complain about Buchholz in the past...
however, don’t trade Buchholz. he is cheap, he can probably eat up innings, he is refining his pitches. Trade someone more like Daisuke and eat some of his contract.
Gonzalez is going to cost too much, and I always feel a starting pitcher, no matter how bad is worth more than a position player. I think 3-4 player trades should only be for starting pitching, no matter the bat of Gonzalez.
The key is to get someone like Gonzalez before they become monster hitters, not sell the farm to acquire them.
ok I feel like I say this every thread
Dice-K has a no-trade clause. Why would he agree to go to the Padres who won’t win?
He’s also at his lowest possible value and will provide much better value healthy than he costs. This is a terrible time to trade him to anyone.
I alway forget he has a no trade clause..
I am not stressing the trading of Daisuke. I think he will do better than in 2009. His performance in Sept. 2009 was pretty good. If he has an okay year, it will put the Sox in first place, if Beckett, Lackey, Lester and Buchholz also have okay to average years.
The only way that he wants to be traded to the Padres is that he wants to pitch aperfect game in MLB, or wants better stats.
his performance in september wasn't pretty good
it was exceptional. Admittedly that was just one month of a year.
It wasn’t meant as a slight against you, I don’t think I’ve seen you recommend it before, I just feel like in every thread there is somebody different saying he will be traded. He’d probably go back to japan before accepting a trade.
(c) get Beltre
and keep Buchholz.
I think that if Beltre is in this lineup and this park, with a full season of VMart and Scutaro (over their replacements last year), our total offense and defense is vastly improved over last year. And keeping Buchholz makes our starting rotation vastly improved over last year.
But otherwise I’m ok with (a) or (b). Plan (b) is more attractive from a value proposition (and allows you to find out if Buch can make the next step up as a pitcher), but (a) could potentially win you more regular season games in the spring, which is helpful towards winning the division and getting home field.
Starting is a relative term
Between Youk, VMart, Kotch and Ortiz we have 4 people who can play first. We have Lowrie and Youk who can play third and I suspect that at least one of our bench players will be capable. It’s probably going to be unusual for anyone player in the corners to have steady starting time I think. I think the only constant will be Youk, he will start 3B or he will start 1B and the others will spell each other as best they can. Is Ortiz horrible at 1B defense? I don’t really want to go by UZR since he only really plays a dozen or less games a year there and usually I don’t have an opportunity to watch the interleague games that he plays.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Papi was acutally a good defender in the minors
But that was a long time ago. I’d rather not have him jumping around in the field though.
he had a couple of really bad plays last year
It may just be because he’s unused to fielding, but he did not look good there.
Get Adam LaRoche back!
Boston traded LaRoche for Kotchman because LaRoche was more of a full time player and Kotchman was more of a bench player. LaRoche is a free agent, perfect chance to get him! He did pretty well in my opinion with boston, sure only a few at bats but within those he hit a homerun. He hits an average of around 20 homeruns a year and Lowell does that too, it can balance out. Only thing is, LaRoche strikes out twice as much. He’s a decent price, good hitter, has power, and a first baseman.
GET HIM
He seems to want a fair sized payday.
And his offensive production isn’t enough to warrant a big contract at 1st, where he’s not particularly good defensively. Better to use said money on Beltre.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 17, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
If they can't get Beltre, then LaRoche is the way of course
The reason why LaRoche comes to mind is because I rather take a first baseman/third that hasn’t went through surgery lately to take Lowell’s place. Trading Lowell to get Beltre whom both had surgery within 1-2 years ago, Beltre still recovering, that’s why his numbers went down this year. LaRoche is healthy and his numbers aren’t going down. LaRoche is younger than Beltre and Lowell and hasn’t went through surgery. Beltre I believe went through ankle surgery while Lowell had hip surgery.
Who do you want more, a healthy 20+ homer a year hitter? or two guys that went through surgery not too long ago and (for Lowell that has been falling into double plays alot this season, leg problems) Both Beltre and Lowell have leg problems.
I like LaRoche but
he wants as much or more money than Beltre – and I think Beltre would bring more value to this lineup because it keeps Youk at 1B.
I’m still scratching my head at how we ended up swapping out LaRoche for Kotchman last year. That’s the one move I really still can’t rationalize.
LaRoche for Kotchman last year
Boston and Atlanta traded out first basemen because LaRoche was more of a full time player while Kotchman isn’t. At the time, Lowell wasn’t a problem so the Sox wanted to get a first basemen to fill the bench as back up. That’s why they traded LaRoche for Kotchman.
Lots of comments here
And I haven’t read them all, so I’m probably being redundant.
I have no problem starting the season with Youk, Lowell and Kotchman as our corner infielders, with the idea that at some point – mid-season or after this year – we’ll be adding a Gonzalez, Fielder, Cabrera, Berkman, etc.
The danger of signing Beltre is that we’re stuck with a crappy hitter and a 4/40 contract, and that his presence will prevent us from going after a monster first baseman.
And of course, if Lars rebounds – as he could – he could be ready for primetime sometime in 2011.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
If Kotchman is our first baseman I'm drinking girlie drinks all summer
not happeing
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Girly drinks?
Like…drinks at a peeler bar?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Like pink fruity shit
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Kids In The Hall
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
That's a classic!
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 17, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
No way Kotchman is our regular 1B this year
There’s no stinkin’ way Theo intends to start the season with Kotchman at 1B. He is SO far removed from a top hitter at that position, he wouldn’t risk it. The defensive value of 1B is FAR less significant than any other infield position. It’s much closer to LF or RF than it is to 3B, so Kotch’s glove at 1B really doesn’t make up for his mediocre bat.
My guess is a plan, or even a deal, has been decided upon following the Lowell trade’s completion. That deal/plan is, obviously, about A-Gonz (1st choice) or Beltre (backup plan).
A-Gonz gives us WAY more offense and saves money while Beltre gives us way more defense plus saves us Buchholz and a top prospect that we’d otherwise lose. While we want A-Gonz #1 I don’t think SD will trade him for Buch and one prospect (our top offer), so I think we’ll end up with Beltre for two years thus killing the A-Gonz rumors until Winter Meetings 2010 (at which time Ortiz’ contract has run out and we can fit him in nicely).
Let's get back to that Votto guy...
I heard a rumor by R. Hix that Theo’s asked the Red about him. I’d even be willing to overlook his Canada-ness.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 17, 2009 9:18 PM EST reply actions
Theo asked
And while I don’t remember the exact quote of his response that I read it went along the lines of “HA! Hell no.”
Beltre v. Kotchman:
Bill James projects them to be almost equivalent offensively, with the slight edge going to Casey Kotchman (wOBA’s of .331 and .329). The big question is: how much defense do we lose?
Youk at 1B and Beltre at 3B: You has a career UZR/150 of 6.5 at 1B, which seems like a good prediction has he has been fairly consistent over his career. Beltre has also been consistently excellent throughout his career according to UZR, so let’s again just go with his career average of 13.9 because there does not appear to be any other kind of trend up or down over the past few years. So that adds up to about +20 runs per 150 games defensively with that lineup.
Kotchman at 1B, Youk at 3B: Kotchman looks to be solidly above average defensively with a career UZR/150 of 4.4. Youk at 3B is a tough prediction. His UZR numbers have been all over the map because of fairly small sample sizes per season. He has two negative years and 4 postitive ones for a career UZR/150 of 8.6. If we take that number as a prediction (and its hard to believe that is too accurate), we end up with a predicted defensive value of +13 for this lineup.
It look like, by signing Beltre the Sox would be gaining nothing offensively (and probably losing since Kotchman still has a chance to break out) but we would be losing about 7 runs of defense per year. Are those seven runs worth whatever absurd price Boras is demanding? I think almost defnitely not.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
And it destroys our flexibility to go after Gonzalez or whomever at mid-year or next off-season.
Unless Beltre would sign a one-year “show me” contract, I say pass.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
As I've said before
Beltre’s value is in his defense. He isn’t much better than Kotchman offensively—and Kotchman is a good defensive 1B. While I still think Beltre at 3B and Youk at 1B is better than Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B, the difference might not be worth $9+ million. Offensively, it’s almost a wash.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
And what of those who claim...
…Beltre will “rake” at Fenway? Incorrect? Overstated?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
certainly overstated
though he’ll drastically improve over at Safeco.
If we ignore Beltre’s injured 2009, his line away from safeco was a pretty impressive .292/.349/.512/.862, which is pretty close to his usual numbers away from Safeco (OBP varies the most)
If look at Kotchman’s numbers from 2008 (because lets look at the same time period), he posted a .272/.328/.410/.738, we can figure that he won’t be quite the power threat that Beltre provides (especially with Beltre being right handed at Fenway)- those numbers are pretty in line with Kotchmans’ career numbers, though if we hope he can revert to 2007 numbers ( .296 /.372 /.467/ .840 ), he’s pretty similar to Beltre- on base more with less power.
Chances of Beltre recovering to his 2008 numbers while hitting at Fenway seem more likely to me than lefty Kotchman reverting to 2007 numbers, so I wouldn’t say offensively it is a wash. Defensively, youk/beltre is hands down better than kotchman/youk, just because of the third base defense- Youk and Kotchman are both great fielders at 1B.
I think the line for Beltre will be around the contract Figgins signed, but probably 3 years (so $27/3), and I think that Beltre would provide us great value for that- also it would secure our IF corners for a few years to come.
Of course then there’s the question if they would be able to do that and move enough salary to keep under the Luxury Tax limit, which is fairly unlikely- it would probably involve moving Hermida, Kotchman, and maybe MDC without adding too much cost for the people that would replace them.
Bill James predicts Kotchman to be better than Beltre offensively next year.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
his predictions probably also are taking Beltre at Safeco
since that’s what his recent numbers are based on. Until proven otherwise, I’m going to keep thinking those predictions are complete bunk for FA because he has no idea where they will end up, where they’ll be batting, or who will be next to them in the lineup.
Probably overstated
The guy has an O-swing% similar to Wily Mo Pena. In a small sample, he hasn’t hit well at Fenway. He should be better away from Safeco. But he isn’t a great hitter. Beltre was a .274 AVG/.332 OBP/.463 SLG (.794 OPS) hitter with the Dodgers. That includes his career best offensive year: 2004, whan he posted an OPS of 1.017. If you don’t count that year, Beltre was a .748 OPS hitter with LA. That’s not all that different from the .759 OPS he put up with the M’s.
Mike Lowell hit .295 AVG/.350 OBP/.479 SLG (.829 OPS) for the Sox. His road OPS for the Sox was .793. Fenway helped, but not as much as some people seem to think. BTW, Lowell had a road OBP of .341. It’s unlikely Beltre will get close to that.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Has there been any news on the Lowell to Texas trade?
I’ve not heard anything since the news about his thumb.
Dodger stadium != Fenway
His Dodgers numbers are similar to his SafeCo numbers because both are pitcher’s parks. Neither is anything like Fenway for a right-handed hitter.
‘More useful to look at his road splits which are more park-neutral. He’s got plenty of road at-bats in both leagues. Just drop his ‘obvious PED year’ of 2003 and his road stats still look like a significant upgrade over what I expect we can get out of Kotchman offensively. I expect he should put up an OPS similar to what Lowell gave us, but with the ability to still play defense.
Park factors seem to fluctuate from year to year
You can find ballparks that go from severe pitcher’s to severe hitter’s parks over the space of a few years. A good example of that is Jacobs Field.
Beltre is nothing special as a hitter. And he will get worse as he gets older. He swings at everything. Guys with bad pitch recognition get significantly worse as they get older and their bat slows down. If his defense declines, he’ll be next to worthless. While I wouldn’t mind the Sox getting him, I think anything more than two years with an option for a third at $8 million or so is a mistake.
I’m not sure what to make of Beltre’s home/road splits. When Mike Lowell was with the Marlins, he played in a neutral to severe pitcher’s park (depending on the season). Overall, Lowell was a slightly better hitter with Boston (.829 OPS v. .801 OPS). [Strangely, Lowell hit better at home with the Marlins: .837 OPS (home)/.766 OPS (road)] He had a .793 road OPS with the Sox (.868 OPS at home). However, if you take Lowell’s worst season (2005) out of the mix, he was a better hitter in Florida: .866 OPS. This isn’t surprising. One would expect a hitter to be better in his prime years, despite his home ballpark. Lowell was 32-years old when he came to the Sox.
Beltre will be 31-years old next year. Assuming the Sox get him, he may benefit from Fenway. Then again, he is getting older and some regression should be expected. I’m not sure Beltre will be as good offensively as Lowell. By weighted OPS, Lowell has always been better offensively than Beltre.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 18, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really expect any notable regression for a 31 year old 3rd baseman
He’s only old if we were talking about signing him to a 5 year contract.
No, we could still get A-Gonz next off-season with Beltre on the roster
because we’ll have shed Big Papi’s contract, and the DH slot will be open.
you know
it would just hurt to have to put any of Beltre, Youk, or Gonzalez in the DH spot, they’re all such good fielders. But yes, that’s a possibility. Certainly lowers his value to us though, and another team would likely offer more than we would for a DH.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Over the Monster
Related FanShots on Over the Monster
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Swisher ends Orioles sweep dreams with timely homer
- Create-a-Caption: Dusty Baker wants YOU to buy playoff tickets
- Padres' Heath Bell wistful about Trevor Hoffman's 600th save
- Want your first career home run? Face a pitcher from Chicago
- Slumpbot .200: Phil Hughes runs into New York's Joba Rules
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
