Padres Fan Here

-1 Ellsbury’s D isn’t that horrible. He’s a great defender, but his main flaw is he makes simple plays into difficult plays because he doesn’t get great reads on the ball. He is prone to make a spectacular play, or just make plays in general, but he may falter a bit from time to time and not get to balls he easily could have gotten. I think the real question is his bat. Hes stuck in a power hitting mentality. It’s changed in the past few years, but he still isn’t great at getting on base.

-2 Buchholz is great. He truly showed signs of coming into his own this past season. He didn’t put up amazing numbers, but he did play some extremely good games. He projects to be an ace and I think that he truly could. His fastball tops around 96 and he has a knee buckling curveball. His other off-speed stuff is on point aswell.

I think the first thought many of us had when we found out Lackey was signed was that we now had an excess of starters and were expecting one to be traded. It’s not so much that he’s the odd man out, Theo just knows that he is the one player that needs to be moved. Sox fans also think that the Sox are pushing so hard for Aroldis Chapman to replace the prospect we would be losing in Buchholz if a deal were to go down.

-3 Honestly, I would include either of them but I wouldn’t want to lose both of them. They both project for great things. Casey Kelly is projected to be an ace or a solid #2, whereas Westy is projected to be a 30/30 outfielder. Keep in mind though, both of these players are only in A ball as of now so they are far from getting to the bigs. 2011 is probably a good date for Casey Kelly as he blew through Low A and struggled just a bit more in high A (And when I say struggled, I mean that VERY lightly). We are projecting him to begin the year in double A, but we don’t know.

As for Westy, he had a great year and ended it with breaking his collarbone I believe. He projects to be a solid 30/30 type of player but we have some other solid outfield options much more closer in Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish.

If I had to choose one to trade, it would be Casey Kelly. He’s a great player, but if we get Chapman, we would then have Chapman, Tazawa, Pimental, Bowden, and a couple other names who could throw their name in the running to eventually compete for a rotation spot.

-4 I think the Hermida trade was made as a reclamation project. We gave up next to nothing for a young outfielder who has a high ceiling.

As for the Max Ramirez trade, we have been eyeballing the Texas Rangers surplus of catching prospects for some time. The only reason I think we got him was because he was coming off injury and we were paying 9M of Lowells 12M contract. I don’t think it was meant to swing a trade with SD, but to provide catching depth (Which we have a couple solid prospects for).

What I will say about Ramirez though, is at this point in time he is coming off a wrist injury, a horrible year in triple A (I believe he played in AAA last year), and projects to be more of a 1b/DH type.

Hermida is probably now going to be shopped since we got Cameron and neither of them really seem open to the idea of platooning. As for Ramirez, if we do get him, I see him being a trade chip aswell.

Heres the trade I am hoping for:

Clay Buchholz
Casey Kelly
Yamaico Navarro (Solid SS/2b prospect)
Perhaps an outfield prospect like Che Hsuan-Lin
and perhaps taking Jason Varitek and eating the rest of his contract (Seeing as those are 4 of our top 15 prospects)

Padres Factors
I feel that Hoyer is coming in and looking at the Padres as a losing team. Yes, they had a nice close to their season, but they still ended up at a run deficit of over 100 runs, including going nearly even in runs scored and allowed over those hot couple months. Really, those last 2 months should have had a record of about .500, and being a .500 team is not the goal in a division with 3 playoff contenders. Jed Hoyer has seen that team before. They’re called the Toronto Blue Jays.

Meanwhile, if the team was going to open up payroll for Adrian Gonzalez, they’d just extend him now. It’d likely save them 3-5 million down the line by paying him now and giving him a raise in his next two paychecks. I’m not saying they’re committed to trading him, but I think they’re definitely leaning that way.

Hoyer probably isn’t going to let fan opinion take over. He’ll tell the owner that his strategy will get them in the playoffs in X years, and it’ll turn out that way because Hoyer is a smart guy. Fans will forgive anything if it gets them October baseball. And you guys didn’t turn out for them a ton last year (no offense), so it’s not like he’s got tickets to worry about. There’s simply no better advertising than a competitive team.

Padres Needs
I don’t imagine that corner infielding will be a big part of the trade, no. We’re not too deep there, and we’re not the types to trade a guy we believe in when he’s at his lowest value (See: Buchholz @ the trade deadline). More likely is that we offer you Buchholz, one of Kalish/Reddick (your pick—most people seem to think Kalish, but I like Reddick better to stick at Center. It’s worth noting that neither is right handed), and Max Ramirez if we have him. Given Tazawa’s presence, I think Michael Bowden is fast becoming a lame duck candidate, so he could be tossed in. He had an awful time against major leaguers last year, but he had promise coming up, and he’s still only 23 dominating AAA.

We don’t have a lot of depth in the high minors at middle infielder, but I expect Yamaico Navarro could be included in any deal. The same with any of a number of mid-level prospects. The Sox’ best strength is depth, so there’s a fair amount to choose from, just not in the middle. Jose Iglesias is probably untradeable for contract reasons.

What I’m not at all convinced Theo will offer is either Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland. For all intents and purposes, they seem to be off limits. Theo didn’t even list them in the possible Felix Hernandez deal.

Questions for us
Ellsbury is not a good center fielder right now. That being said, he could be good if he can figure out how to get good reads on the balls. It’s the sort of thing you would expect would’ve shown up by now if it were going to, but perhaps he’s just slow on picking up that particular skill. He’s got a ridiculously high ceiling as a defender, though, because he is lightning quick with a sure glove when he gets going in the right direction. I don’t think we trade Ellsbury because I don’t think we’re willing to start Hermida (Reddick could use another year in AAA), but who knows?

Buchholz has a chance to be a top-of-the-line #1. No question. And at this point, I’d say he’s got a good shot of making it there. Just looking at his pitches, he’s got a good fastball, and a curve and changeup that on any given night could make Albert Pujols look bad. So far, he’s been a guy with some mental problems for the most part. You look at him, and he’s not the type to go 5 innings and give up 4. He’s either gonna shut you down, or he’s gonna give up the game. Clay had 4 starts this year with 6 or more runs given up, and every other one was 3 or less. It’s the sort of thing that’ll come with age and experience—oh, and a good pitcher’s park won’t hurt. He’ll probably be a #2 or #3 type right off the bat, but I’d say he’s almost definitely going to be a #1 well before free agency. Lock him up. And yeah, we all thought the same thing with Lackey.

See above for why I’ve been saying Theo won’t let them go. The word “untouchable” has been thrown around a lot. As for who I’d prefer…Kelly. I said above that Westmoreland could end up being the type of guy who just doesn’t make it out to the market much. He’s at least as fast as Ellsbury (probably gets better reads too) (19 SB:0 CS last year), is gonna be an OBP machine, and I honestly think he’s going to hit at least 20 home runs some day. 30 isn’t beyond the realm of possibility. He’s 19, and just a fantastic player at a premium position. His cieling is some sort of freakish Jacoby Ellsbury JD Drew mixture of awesome. Kelly is great, don’t get me wrong, but there’s a real question if his cieling isn’t just being a #2. He’s got a great curve, but his fastball isn’t at that 95 range and his changeup isn’t really a plus pitch at the moment.

Max Ramirez I can definitely see being part of a trade. He’s got the chance to be a huge bat, and given recent reports he might even be able to stick at catcher. Jeremy Hermida strikes me as a backup plan that we got for cheap (the prospects were unimportant ones) with a mind to flipping him if things worked out in the outfield—which they have. He’s not a 4th OF, really. Because if he’s gonna ever live up to that hyped-up potential, he’s gonna need plenty of ABs, and if he doesn’t, he doesn’t have the defense or bat to stick in the majors.

He was inconsistent – to say the least – in a rough 2008, but he really started coming into his own last year. I’m not convinced yet that he’ll be better than Lester or Beckett, but he will be really good. I’d hate to give him up, but I can see why you guys would demand him. Put him in that big ball park, against that division, and he could put up some terrific numbers.

I also can see why Hoyer would want Ells. He’s a walking highlight reel. While his D wasn’t great last year, he wasn’t as bad as his metrics suggest. Getting out of Fenway will help – I think Fenway plays with OF UZR, etc., in funny ways, and Ells in particular made a couple miscues rigt up against the Wall last year – but he’s got to get better at making reads, etc. He’s got the tools to be a great CF, we’ll see if it can’t come together. And offensively, I think we’ll see marginal improvement. He started taking more walks as the season progressed, and he’s always projected for a bit more power. I could see lots of triples and a few inside the park HRs in San Diego.

Kelly and Westmoreland are both kids, but they project really well. Westmoreland has had some flukey injuries – hurting his shoulder diving into the OF wall, etc. – and there could be some concern that he’s fragile, but I don’t think its the case. Kelly should be a stud. Not the hardest thrower in the world, but supposedly great command for a young guy.

In short, while I really want Gonzalez, it’d be really painful to give up any of these guys. But I’m sure it’ll take at least two of them, plus some of our non-potential All Star ML ready prospects – Reddick, Bowden, Kalish, Tazawa, etc.

1. While he had a bad defensive year last season, Ellsbury’s defense has been very good in the minors and his first two seasons. I think that just as an excellent batter can have a down year (see Jason Bay, Mike Lowell), defenders can have down seasons in the field. Coco Crisp had a similarly bad season a few years back. I expect Ells will be a well above-average defender over the course of his career.

2. Buchholz ended 2009 with a bang – a series of good starts in September and the only good start of the playoffs, which is why many of us are very reluctant to see him traded. His ceiling is very high – he’s got phenomenal pitches (plus curve, plus change, 95+ mph fastball), and when he executes and locates, you get results like the no-hitter. Buchholz could become a top 10 pitcher.

3. I’m very high on Buchholz, and if the deal had to be done, I’d move Kelly or Westmoreland.

It gives people around here a really good perspective on the Padre’s side. We sometimes tend to be a little unrealistic when it comes to trades and have a hard time putting ourselves in other GM’s shoes. The regular posters are usually reasonable, but sometimes I see trade proposals involving a handful of our B-grade prospects and borderline major leaguers for All-Star calliber players, as if the small-market clubs are farm teams for the Sox.

That being said, I love Gonzalez, but I think I’d have to pass given the price. If we were to trade two of Buchholz/Ellsbury/Westmoreland/Kelly, I’d prefer that it be Buchholz and Kelly, but not happily. I think it is accepted that Buch would have to go to get AGon. Ideally we could build a package around him that also included 4 or 5 of Reddick, Kalish, Bowden, Tazawa, Max Ramirez(*), Kotchman, or Hermida, but as I said before, that’s unrealistic.

If I was Jed Hoyer, I wouldn’t trade Gonzalez now for anything short of ridiculous return and maybe not even then. Just too much of a risk. Remember, we are talking about prospects here; always overhyped and most, even “top” prospects don’t become star players.
Why not play the season and see how the team does? If there is hope to make a run in 2010 or 2011 hang onto him and try to win; that is the goal for all teams, right? Also, we are talking about the NL West here; seems like .500 teams are solid contenders in that division, so maybe the Padres are not that far away after all.

One thing that Hoyer must or should know that most of us don’t is the depth of young talent on the roster and the minors. If he believes the Padres shelves are bare, he may opt to make a Gonzalez move sooner than later, but now? I don’t see it. As a Sox fan I would trade most if not all the names mentioned for Gonzalez. From the Padres side, I can’t see Gonzalez’ value plummeting next year and Jed will have a much better perspective for the Padres longer-term needs.

Be careful with the hometown discount thing. It is never as much as we may think it should be and often assigned to players that are not native to team area; Johnny Damon anybody?
At least Gonzalez is actually from San Diego. I bet he would take $18 mil. for 5 years from the Padres vs. $20 mil. from the Mets, but that’s about as big a discount as he would/should take. Also, would moving to Anaheim or LA be a real burden on a kid from San Diego? I don’t think so.