We would have a monster of a team in 2010 if a deal goes down, but it creates big long-term issues. If we ship Buch to SD and fail to extend Beckett, our rotation becomes pretty weak in 2011 and beyond. Also, I’m very against sending Ells in this deal. People go back and forth on how good he is on other threads, but I want him in a Sox uni for the forseable.
Basically, I don’t want to trade a package that includes two of the following: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Kelly, Westmoreland. Any deal for AGonz would almost certainly have to include two of them, so I’ll say no thanks. I prefer Beltre for money over Gonzalez for players.

After acquiring Lackey, that would bring us up above the CBT already (estimating arbitration raises). Theo’s said he needs to stay under the CBT, so that seems unlikely at this point.

I don’t believe Ellsbury is expendable for Gonzalez. It opens up a hole in left- and Hermida goes against the defensive-minded philosophy Theo has had so far (although because of reports yesterday that he’s looking at player like Nady for a backup righthanded OF, it is a possibility).

I know others won’t agree with me, but I think Buchholz+Ellsbury alone is too high a price for Gonzalez- two very young, very high potential stars under control for a long time.

Getting Gonzalez also would open a hole in our rotation, and we would have limited money with which to close up that hole. I do believe that Theo is trying hard to get Gonzalez, but I just don’t believe that they will be able to agree on a price for him.

I’m not sure Detroit is shopping Cabrera. I’d rather have Cabrera than Gonzalez. But the appeal of the latter is that he is signed cheaply for two more years, which would off-set a lot of the sunk costs for this year. Cabrera is a great hitter. However, his contract is very expensive and long-term. I can’t see the Sox giving up a lot in order to take on that contract and all the off-the-field issues.

Pitching depth is important because most teams lose a player or two during the season. Buchholz may end up being a very good starter. But, most important, he is young and cost-controlled. He is also insurance in case the team loses Beckett after next season.

BTW, Ellsbury is probably less valuable than Buchholz. Last year, they were equal in WAR. If Ells moves to LF (and he should), he loses value. Cameron > Ellsbury in CF. The Sox have OF depth in Hermida and more players a year or two away in the minors. If Buchholz is moved, the Sox’ pitching depth is thinned out considerably.

puts a T in it. I don’t understand.

I doubled the C instead of the H. I think I usually spell it right.

My apologies to young Clay. However, I do want to keep him when everyone else is calling him expendable…that must count for something!

though not near as good as ells

I’m glad Theo and team are making the moves and not me or others here, because NOTHING would ever get done! Everybody is afraid to make a move because the players being traded are sure fire all-stars in the making and the players coming back are sure to get hurt, old or cost too much. Be bold Theo.

If you get a guy like Gonzalez, you instantly extend him, and that’s gonna cost cash.
Anyways, the problem with the idea of emptying the farm system is that it WILL cause problems down the line. If we trade both Buchholz AND Kelly, then we’ve got nothing in the way of top-of-the-rotation talent coming up down the line, and we’ll either have to overpay in the open market or settle for a very mundane rotation with Lester at the top and then some average talent (I don’t have faith Lackey will be a top guy in 3 years’ time). Is Adrian a big get? Yes. But we need sustainability too.

who would be the one person who is better than him…Tex or Pujols? Just wondering

Padres are not even close to competing and keeping a player who you can turn into 3 or 4 young players who can help much smarter.

Sure, they have no pressure to trade him, I guess this is true. But they have no pressure to win either. So lose and keep AGon or trade him and get players that can help you win in 2 or 3 years.

AGon will not resign when 15-20 million a year is sitting on the table, offered by 6 or more franchises.

I get the argument, but the Padres have a clock and if they dont move now, when AGon is at his highest trade value, they lose players in return from a trade.

This is completely inimical to his desire of putting development ahead of trading and free agent signings.

Kelly appears to be completely off-limits; I’d doubt right now Epstein would go for anything beyond Gonzalez for Kelly straight up (if Kelly had to be included in the deal, that is). And even then he still might not do it, if he believes strongly enough in Kelly’s potential.

Buchholz and Westmoreland for Gonzalez? Maybe. But there have been probably plenty of trades they could have made involving Buchholz in the last few years, and they didn’t go for any of those, either.

If Buchholz is already a MLB-ready #3 with potential to be a #1, then he is a HUGE commodity. Wait until 2010-2011 and you’re looking less at Buchholz and more at some AA guys who aren’t a sure thing.

which is why I think it’s unlikely.

Few other teams are going to blow San Diego away on this. These are the options for San Diego:
1) Trade him now
2) Trade him midseason
3) Collect draft picks (unless signing team’s picks are protected) when he leaves

They aren’t going to the playoffs in the next two years, they can’t extend him, and the more time passes, the less they can collect in trade. Worst of all, few teams have the financial resources AND prospects to both acquire and extend him, weakening his market. Johan Santana, one of the best pitchers in the game, went for a package built around one grade A prospect (Carlos Gomez); why should Gonzalez get three top prospects?

I think Epstein’s concerned—and rightly so—about the possibility of losing a starter for an extended period. As we saw this year, that doesn’t always go smoothly.

But right now, if anything happens, Bowden is the go-to guy, and I don’t know if he’s capable of an extended stint at this point.

Especially in the playoffs.

Every season and offseason presents new challenges and opportunities. Why worry about pitching when we have a killer rotation next year, and, even if Beckett walks, a solid base going forward. I’m sure we will be talking about another young pitching stud (Chapman?) next season.

“#1 in your lineup” – Ok not sure how to argue that one
“an amazing CF already” – Torii Hunter is amazing, Ellsbury by all accounts is below average
“potential to be better every year” – True although his minor league numbers don’t show a progression toward power so maybe a little more selectivity?

He’s certainly an impact bat, but he strikes me as being in that second tier of offensive players.

The problem I see aside from his age and $$ would be that the Sox are woeful in their corner depth in the minors. You might get a decent year our of Berkman for 14.5 mil and have to go right back to the FA pool unless Lars finds his promise.

i dunno man…when you only have one elite player you gotta get rid of em and hope you will get propects that will become elite in the future

Because Gonzalez is going to do nothing for their team in a period they can contend.

Winning games in a season you have no shot of making the playoffs is basically pointless. And with Gonzalez sure to be gone, getting Buchholz for 4 years (likely extend him past that, too) and some other mid-high level prospects would give San Diego reason to think they could be a playoff team in 3 or 4 years. Right now, they’re on the fast-track to being the Pirates when they DO lose A-Gon.

We can build our rotation around him and Lester for the foreseeable future.

Actually, those people don’t even get to be GMs.