Red Sox Looking At Nick Johnson?
The Red Sox have spoken to first baseman Nick Johnson's agent. This, which we all know by now, means absolutely nothing, but it's at least worth a mention:
Instead of signing a third baseman, the Red Sox could also move Kevin Youkilis across the diamond to third and sign a first baseman. One free agent that stands out is Nick Johnson, a left-handed hitter who had an .831 OPS last season for the Nationals and Marlins.
Johnson's agent, Rex Gary, acknowledged Tuesday morning that he has spoken to the Red Sox. Boston's level of interest, however, is still unknown.
Johnson fits "the mold" of what the Red Sox are looking for in a player. He gets on base at a great clip (lifetime 16.1 BB%) and ... well, that's pretty much it. He's a power threat though (lifetime .849 OPS) which is kind of nice for this lineup. Defensively, he had a down year in 2009, racking up a combined -6.6 UZR/150 between the Nationals and Marlins. But prior that he was above average.
Johnson's biggest knock is the simple fact he can't stay healthy. He may be an OBP machine, but he's only played more than 130 games a season three times in his eight-year career. Bill James predicts 124 games out of Johnson next year.
Word is that Johnson is seeking a two-year deal.
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Yeah this will solve our problems.
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
"fits the mold"
I think the operations of the Sox is being misunderstood. Yes OBP is a stat the Red Sox appreciate, but most teams know about this now as well. So this is a stat that now is becoming overvalued and overpaid. The idea behind Moneyball is not OBP is great, but pay low prices for skills that are undervalued. You can never marry yourself to something like OBP even though we know how important it is. Nick Johnson is a nice player, but his defense and health would probably limit the interest the Sox have in him.
Very true
But nine times out of 10, a player the Sox sign is most likely to be a good-to-great with the on-base ability. It seems like the Red Sox’s priorities this offseason, at least, have been OBP and defense. The Red Sox are of course looking at all the attributes, but Theo knows what works.
And it is a shame that OBP is no longer a secret and, as you wrote, is being overpaid for.
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by Randy Booth on Dec 15, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
I’m Omar Minaya and I disapprove this message
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
don't like him at all
He does get on base a lot, which is good, but he really isn’t a huge power threat- .849 OPS is a bit less impressive for power when his OBP is above .400. I didn’t watch him last year, but from what I’ve heard he didn’t look too good defensively, even apart from the UZR.
And really, no sense in begging for injuries. I’d much rather have Beltre, and Johnson doesn’t really strike me as a significant upgrade over Kotchman (who I think would be a terrible plan A for the Sox, though a serviceable player)
OBP
OBP is all good and dandy, but what good is it if we cant score those that are already on base? We need run producers, plain and simple. Does Johnson drive in runs? I dont have the answer to that, but someone must. Is there anyone on the FA market that can play 1B/3B that can drive in runs, has great defensive skills, and has a decent OBP?
OBP=Not making outs
To answer your question: Yes, his name is Adrian Beltre
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
well his OBP is terrible
but other than that he’s great. I think he’s by far the best solution if we can afford him.
No outs
Ok, so he gets on base. whoopy do da. whos going to drive him in? Ill pass. We have Youk at first. We need a 3B! Dont like the idea of moving Youk to 3rd. Isnt trading Buchholz to SD for Adrian Gonzelas still an option. This whole business about payroll sucks. We are already way past the 120 mil mark. Sign someone who can help at 1B, not just someone who is cost us less money just to plug a hole.
by JEDIJOKERS2 on Dec 15, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
driving in runs is not a different skill set from hitting
anyone is capable of driving in runs, there are a lot of good hitters in the lineup right now.
I still think Johnson is not a good choice.
Batting
look at this lineup
Ells
Pedroia
V-Mart
Youk
Papi
Drew
Scuts
Camron
3B(whom ever they sign)
Not bad is u ask me
by JEDIJOKERS2 on Dec 15, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Lineup
Yes, this lineup looks pretty good and many forget about having V-Mart for a full season in the middle. Beyond the question of 3B, where Lowell was a pretty decent bat even last season, some big questions remain -
- What will Ortiz bring? If he carries his second half numbers for a full season, the lineup will be excellent. We just don’t know what to expect. If he looks like more like the April/May ‘09 Papi, we’re in trouble.
-Will Ellsbury turn into the true leadoff hitter we need? If he can improve his OBP and be consistent for a full season, we are in good shape.
I was in favor of Nick
last season as a quick and cheap (money+trade chips) solution to what was looking like our “Ortiz” problem when he was first mentioned as a trade target last May. As an everyday player I am not as enthusiastic. First, he really looked like a butcher at 1b last year. This was more than “UZR is useless for 1b” as he seemed absolutely gunshy in the field. Also, trusting that a team that puts out Drew, Johnson, the ever diminishing Youk season (combine with increased injury risk at 3b) +a 37 yearold CF and not expecting big injury issues is a bad idea. I like Johnson as insurance, not more.
One thing we should realize is there are consequence that go beyond the single player under consideration. Cameron is a good example. If we play Cameron in CF we improve our outfield in 2 spots, so this improves the team beyond Cameron alone. Johnson detract in the same way because we get weaker defensively both at 3rd and 1st (well, actually we have no 3b now, but we could find one, eg Beltre, with far better defense at what is probably the 4th most important non-catcher position).
exactly about the second point there
if we are going to move Youk over to third, it needs to be for someone exceptional to come over to first.
I think Theo is making this move to create leverage in his negotiations with Boras
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
There's also the injury risk
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Let the "Great Nick Johnson v. Adam Dunn" debate begin!!!!
just kidding, I have no opinion on this potential deal….
"stats are for losers and final scores are for winners."
Bill Belichick
Another Japanese relief pitcher?
Apparently the Red Sox are offering a 2 years deal to Ryota Igarashi
Link
Profile
Youtuage
Now you’re set ;)
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
the only reason I can think of for that
is that for some reason Theo’s main offseason goal is to destroy Omar’s offseason. Or he’s planning on trading relievers.
I feel like our bullpen is pretty massive already. Though really, if it was something like $1.5 mill/2 years, that’s hardly anything. I do like his profile a lot, a hard throwing, reliever can be slightly wild, as long as he’s not the guy we’re throwing up there to get the last out when the bases are loaded. I probably like what I’ve seen of him better than the million of other options I’ve seen for our bullpen- but I don’t even see more than one slot available there.
He's going to API tomorrow with his buddy Dice-K
Apparently, he lost some velocity (Used to throw in high 90s) but the Splitter looked good to me with some control issues but Hey, it’s 1.5 mill/2years, I think I’ll take it!
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Relief
Does his head and neck jerk around like Oki’s. Maybe we should put a clause in the contract stating that if his neck breaks we arent liable.
by JEDIJOKERS2 on Dec 15, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like a -5.6 UZR would be hard to pull off for a 1B
But then Tex was -3.7, so I don’t put to much weight in UZR at 1B.
Everything I’ve heard about Johnson is that he’s a DH at this point.
Pass.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
He'll be a Mariner
I have no doubt about that.
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 15, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Pitching
This isnt bad either
Beckett
Lester
Fatman Slim(Lackey)
Dice-K
Wake
And if we sign Chapman and keep Buchholz, man its going to be great
I suggested Johnson before
His knocks are obvious: declining defense and can’t stay healthy. You’d have to spell him often with Youk/V-Mart to make sure he lasts the whole year.
The positives are that you can probably get him on a one-year deal if you don’t like the current options. Then again, you could just use Kotchman instead. So, in the end, I didn’t really convince myself or anyone else of anything.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 15, 2009 11:07 PM EST reply actions
Ridiculous unnecessary
how stupid. already have Youklis, Kotchman, heck even Martinez and Ortiz can play
first base. Why are the Sox bent on acquiring players for positions they don’t need ?
Starting pitching for ONE. This is STUPID.
OPS for all of Major League Baseball in 2008 was .749.
IS it ME, Or........
Is it just me or has Theo forgotten exactly WHY the Red Sox got nowhere in the post-season and why they lost the division ????
LACK OF HITTING. NO /LOW RUNS. MEN LEFT ON BASES.
SCORING DEFICIENCY ALERT.
Pitching was not the problem.
NOW BAY IS GONE. LOWELL GONE.
Cameron ? Scutaro ? that’s IT ??? ok, MAYBE Beltre. uh.. huh ??
This team is WEAKER THAN it was last year !!!!!!
They were 3rd in the league in runs last year...not really a problem
And now they are significantly improved in defense, which, with Lackey, to me, makes them better than last year. Scutaro and Cameron both had higher WARs than Bay, interestingly.
In this comment
Snowball diagnoses a team on a 3-game sample.
Actually, no, a 2-game sample, since those weren’t the issues in the 3rd game at all.
We lost the division because the Yankees won 102 games.
We lost in the playoffs because we played badly for 3 games.
We give ourselves the best shot at both the division and the world series by making the best team possible, and just because defense isn’t broken down as easily as offense doesn’t make it any less important.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
No, because one run prevented is better than one run gained.
winning percentage is a relation between runs scored and runs against approximately in the proportion of RS to the 1.93 power divided by RA to the 1.93 power. Or to simplify it, which is a higher number – 2/1 or 3/2? Both are one run more, but the 2/1 is a much higher number. Preventing defensively is better than producing an equal number offensively.
Here’s another simplified example. If a hypothetical .500 team averages 5 runs scored per game and 5 runs against per game, and then improves its runs against by 5 runs per game (down to 0 allowed) it will go undefeated. If it instead improves its offense by 5 runs per game to an average of 10 runs per game, it’s not at all necessarily going to go undefeated because it could lose one game 5 to 3 and win the next one 17 to 5 to maintain its average.
Theo is recognizing that one weakness was defense particularly on the left side of the field, and another was #4 and #5 pitchers (with Dice-K and Wake’s injuries and the poor Penny/Smoltz attempts.
I’m not too concerned about the offensive dropoff from Bay to Cameron because we’ve improved SS offense a bit to make up for that plus having a full season of V-Mart at C over 1/2 last year with tek starting.
Finally, remember – Theo isn’t finished!
You are wrong.
I feel like I’ve been writing that a lot over the past two days. A lot of newbees around.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
And we welcome them.
It’s impassioned debate that makes for the most informed fans.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Sean O has sparked some good discussions. But the validity of OBP and W-L is something that I thought we were past.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Yeah, good luck with that one
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 16, 2009 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Which is why we're doing our best to take away the other team's offense.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Snowball, you just got owned.
I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.
+2
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 16, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, I've changed my mind.
Johnson would be a perfect addition to the team. We’ll ugly our opponents right off the field!
USG
We can't do that.
Girls won’t make cute signs that have sexual references directed at Ells because they know he would get beat up after the game for being such a young stud.
I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.
"Red Sox Looking At Nick Johnson? "
Everyone’s looking at Nick Johnson.
He’s weird lookin’.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
First Base / DH
Make a deal with Milwaukee for Prince Fielder. He’d have a great time in Fenway.

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