Is Lowrie the starter at 3B right now?
by lone1c on Dec 15, 2009 10:16 AM EST
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With all of the roster moves going on, I was trying to figure out who is at 3B. Right now, as scary as it sounds, it looks like that that particular job would currently belong to Jed Lowrie.
If we assume that:
- the Mike Lowell trade goes through;
- the Red Sox don't let
CarcassJason Varitek catch more than once every five days; - Victor Martinez is the starting catcher; and
- Casey Kotchman is hanging around for the days when Martinez or Youk is unavailable,
it leads to, barring another deal, a starting lineup for the Sox that would resemble the following:
- Mr. On-Base, RF
- The Elf, 2B
- Clutch Mart, C
- Youkbacca, 1B
- Papi, DH
- Mike Cameron, CF
- Jedi Knight, 3B
- Polo! (Marco Scutaro), SS
- Taco (aka Mr. Larceny), LF
Given the players the Sox have right now, that's probably about as good a job as they can do in terms of putting together a lineup out of that. You might juggle around 6-8, but I would argue that any solution that involves Casey Kotchman or Jason Varitek having a large number of at-bats really isn't a viable solution at all.
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I doubt Ells is out of the leadoff spot.
Especially considering that we now need Drew’s threat-of-power for the middle.
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Youkilis
Ortiz
Drew
Cameron
Scutaro
Lowrie
Would be my guess.
I think it’s nice to not necessarily have any insta-outs like we’ve had in years past (I maintain that Lowrie is a good hitter, and that Scutaro will get on at a .330 clip at the absolute worst. Likely better given his penchant for patience). Still, it also makes you realize we could be so much better by slotting in one huge bat in the middle.
USG
I should have said "optimal"
My lineup represented what I thought would be the most productive lineup. I think your lineup is probably much more likely, although Cameron and Drew might be switched because of the L-R balance issue.
(Although, personally, I would be tempted to insert Ellsbury ahead of Lowrie: the combination of a guy who can score from first coupled with a guy who can hit doubles is very appealing.)
How about another option in the table such as:
a qualified Awesome.
The qualifications being:
—Does Ortiz act like much of last year or make a yearlong comeback??
—Does this Cameron hit as well or better than Bay (answer for a good Sox result must be better!)!
—Finally, can Lowrie play third and stay well??
This lineup has potential and is enough of a change that I think I will still buy the cable package so I can see the Sox next season. If some of these big changes had not been made, I would have declined to buy the package in 2010 because the same 2009 team playing in 2010 was too boring and lousy!
—Would be nice on Ortiz
—No
—Possibly, but probably won’t be who we go with come April.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 15, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Lowrie can play third
but he is not going to be planned as a starter until he has proven definitively he is healthy. He probably will be in Pawtucket to start the year, barring an amazing ST.
Why does Cameron have to hit better than Bay? Because we scored so few runs last year? His offense is unlikely to rival bay’s, but the improved defense should more than make up for it.
Watching all the ganes last year,
I did not see us losing too much because of Bay’s defense. His offense was somewhat streaky especially later in the season when it really counted. More pivotal hits are needed, IMO, from his replacement even if the replacement’s over all stats seem less. When you hit may be more important than how much you hit.
by NG on Dec 15, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
well my favorite idea
is moving ells to left and having cameron’s plus defense in center- that total defensive change should make a giant difference.
As far as offense, Bay was and always has been incredibly streaky, yes, but there is no measurable way to say the hits will come in important places or not come in important places. Cameron is prone to strike out a lot like Bay, and can sometimes be very streaky, in good and bad ways. Using references like that however, looks good in advance, but to use that as a basis for who to choose for the team, is a lot like playing russian roulette with the sox.
Defense in general on the left side was a huge issue- my biggest issue with Bay was he was not good at running out the ball. There’s just been a huge difference in comfort whether the ball is hit into left or right.
Okay, so it would seem
we may not lose much with this switch. The only factor that was in Bay’s favor, which is a big one to me, is that Bay is a younger player. 37 may be well over the hill or at least PREDICTABLY going down the far side.
by NG on Dec 15, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but I feel like Cameron is an exception
watch him play, he’s probably more fit than anyone else on the team, he’s really a fitness freak. There are a lot of 30-year old players I’d be more worried about.
I understand he’s still somewhat of an injury risk as he’s getting older, but I think 2 years of him worries me a lot less than 5 years of Bay or 6 years of Holliday for more money.
If we had our option of which player to give the contract we gave Cameron to and either would take it, I’d certainly go for Bay, but I like the short term one in this situation- it will also help us get younger in the end as it will allow prospects to come up sooner than a real long-term solution would.
Right now, who's at 3B?
Based on the lineup as presently constituted, it’s not as if they have many better options.
Until Lowrie proves himself
The plan will doubtlessly be Kotchman at 1st, Youk at 3rd. I think that won’t be the opening day roster, I think Beltre is still the most likely option. If the season started today, it certainly wouldn’t be Lowrie since he said he plans to start swinging a bat on the new year, since the lineup for the year isn’t yet finalized no real point in deciding who would be in the current lineup.
"the improved defense should more than make up for it."
Doubtful. What makes up for it is that he’ll cost less than half of Bay this year and less than a quarter of him over the life of the contract.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
in 2009
Bay was worth a respectable 3.5 WAR in a career year.
Cameron was worth 4.4 WAR in a good but not exceptional year.
Factor in the improvement in Ells defense if he moves to left and yeah, I’ll take Cameron any day.
Cost is just an added bonus.
Few things.
First, WAR is a useful tool, but it is a hypothetical. Fangraphs ranking of Frank Gutierrez tenth most valuable positional player by WAR, and Nyjer Morgan in the top 25 suggests to me that WAR relies too heavily on questionable positional evaluations and defensive quantifications that var too much from year to year to give an accurate indicator of future performance. Case in point – Ben Zobrist. The kid had a great year, no doubt. But to rank him above Pujols, Mauer, Utley, Hanley, Jeter, Youk, etc., is just silly.
Second, Cameron has been pretty good defensively for two years in a row. For the three years prior to that, he was either average or well below average, by UZR. While he is certainly a huge defensive upgrade over Bay, exactly how much is a question mark.
Third, if Cameron plays LF, he’ll lose significant “positional” value, which knocks his WAR down before we even factor how he actually performs.
Fourth, Cameron is old.
Fifth, this was not Bay’s career year, his third best season by both OPS+ and WAR.
Sixth, Cameron does not really have “exceptional” years with the bat. His career OPS+ is 107. Last season it was 111. He is slightly above average. Hopefully, he’ll pepper the wall at Fenway, but no guarantees.
Seventh, there is a reason Bay was offerd almost four times as much money as Cameron, and it has nothing to do with “clutch” or inherited biases or failure of Theo to read Moneyball or Fangraphs. Bay ranked 15th in baseball in OPS – 3rd among outfielders. Cameron was @ 100 in baseball, 35th among outfielders. Yes, playing a more difficult position – and well – adds value to a player, and to a team. But so does being a premier slugger.
All of this is a long way of saying that while I like the deal, and I like Cameron as a player, the deal makes sense because it gives us financial flexibility. If Bay was happy two years, $17.5 million – or for that matter, 4/60 – we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Zobrist was more valuable than all the other players you listed but Mauer in my opinion.
He was a plus defender at a wide variety of positions—primarily the offense-starved middle infield—while putting up an OPS of .948. 948 from a middle infielder. Hanley had a very slightly better offensive season, but is considered to be a below average defender at his position.
As for Mauer, he likely would’ve gotten 1st had he A) played all the games and B) had defense factored into it. Catcher defense isn’t quantifiable yet, and Mauer is considered a perfectly good defender from everyone I’ve heard.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
Other things, because I stopped at the Zobrist part.
Positional WAR would be lost, defensive WAR would be gained (in a UZR-fooling Monster-free scenario) because UZR is relative to position. If Cameron plays LF, his UZR should go through the roof, because an above average center fielder is a ridiculous left fielder.
Yes, Cameron is old, and that’s why he was only given 2 years. The reason Bay was offered more was not because he was a better player, but because he was a better player in the overvalued offensive department. Taking away a run is logically as good as scoring a run (it is, in fact, better for a good team according to better analysis), and yet elite defensive players are signed for 7-9 million while elite offensive players are signed for 18-20 even with crap defense. It’s exploiting this cheaper market that won us an OBP-fueled 2004 World series.
If Bay would’ve accepted 4/60, no, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But quite frankly that’d be a shame, because barring injury and major age-related decline, Cameron is the better player.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
"Taking away a run is logically as good as scoring a run."
Sure it is.
But show me something other than fangraphs conclusory opinion that indicates Cameron’s ~20 points of UZR is more valuable than Bay’s ~.140 points of OPS.
UZR does not correlate neatly to run prevention, and it varies so widely from year to year that it is virtually useless to predict future performance.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
OK, I got REALLY interested in this question.
I spent the last hour or so tinkering in excel with ERA-FIP and UZR. And what I found was…I’m not really good enough at this to give you a good answer. I tried the formula (ERA-FIP)*162/UZR for a team on the year. And I got plenty of answers. Luckily, only 10 teams went in the wrong direction (either saved runs despite negative UZR, or gave up runs despite a positive ERA). But that’s still a lot to get “wrong” as it were. Another thing to notice is that 5 of the top 10 teams in UZR were top 10 in E-F, and 5 of the bottom 10 were in the bottom 10. And 3 of the top 4 teams in UZR were 3 of the top 4 in E-F, coming in at about a rate of 1 run saved per point of UZR.
There’s a lot of problems, of course. I think there’s probably a point where outfield UZR is less predicative than infield, given the inherent problems with the lack of standard fields. Then there’s the fact that this is just one year’s worth of data and I don’t have the time to do too much more. I think it’d be interesting also to see how tRA related to the “outliers” as it were.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 3:13 AM EST up reply actions
I'll bite.
Pujols is a plus defender and the best hitter on the planet.
Utley is likely just as good, if not better, in the field, and didn’t have Zobrist’s luck at the plate, by BABIP.
Hanley is basically an average SS, by UZR, and is a much better hitter.
Youk owns with the bat, also provides defensive versatility, albeit at slightly less “valuable” positions.
Jeter smells terrific.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Pujols is a plus defender at a minus position.
BABIP is only useful in predicting future performance. Zobrist did what he did regardless of luck.
Hanley had a slightly better offensive season.
See Pujols for Youk
Jeter is in commercials with a steroid using adulterer. Doesn’t smell so terrific now.
The bulk of your argument seems to be centered around the idea that Zobrist was lucky/having a career year, and that positional values aren’t worth much.
As far as luck/career year is concerned, sure. But that has no bearing on what he was worth last year. If he got lucky, it was HIS luck, and any other player in his position wouldn’t necessarily have had it last year. He did what he did, and so he gets the value of it for that season. WAR should never be used to predict future performance without the help of other stats, but it’s the best quick-look statistic we have, and is incredibly good (in my opinion) at pinning the value of any single player for any single period of time gone by.
As for positional adjustments, consider it like this: Pujols is a noticeably worse defender than Chase Utley, yes? If you were to take Albert Pujols and attempt to put him at second base, he would likely never be able to play it adeptly due to a lack of range, quickness, etc. If you were to take Utley and put him at first, given a period of adjustment, he would likely perform exceptionally there due to his ability to get to balls hit to his right side. In fact, he’d be head and tails above most other first basemen, to the point where people would start asking “Why isn’t this guy playing 2nd?!” Sure, he doesn’t have to pick balls out of the dirt at 2nd, but for the most part that’s not a particularly talent-based ability as much as it is a practiced skill. That difference is where the positional adjustment comes in.
There is, after all, a reason why teams do not simply load up on first basemen. Lyle Overbay would be a very good offensive shortstop, but there’s a reason no teams with holes in the middle are throwing contracts at his feet.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
Yes.
In a vacuum, a 2B provides more “value” on D than a 1B. I’m not convinced that it’s nearly enough to overcome the difference in offense between Pujols and Zobrist. Or, for that matter, Bay and Cameron.
And I think the luck issue is huge. As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Zobrist played half a season at 2B and had an outrageous UZR. Sure, it was his luck, and he actually covered a lot of ground in that half a season, and WAR’s defensive stats are a measure of that.
But in my mind, WAR value – or what “actually happened to happen” – is different than a player’s value to a team, which is based on the likelihood of repeating or sustaining success going forward.
Cameron is a known quantity. Slightly above average bat with some pop, and a very good fielder, although he’s had some subpar seasons as well, by UZR. Bay is also a known quantity. All star bat, lousy fielder. And on the whole, Bay is a much more valued commodity.
Another aspect “value” is its replaceability. My guess is there are numerous guys in the minors capable of playing elite defense right now, or at least after a short learning curve. Few (if any) minor leaguers could step in and provide Bay-level production this season, or even within two seasons. Bay’s bat – and thus his game – is more valued than Cameron’s game because its rarer.
And again, the money don’t lie. Theo, Bill James, et al., know much more than we do about all this than we do.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I would argue
I’m sure there’s plenty of good defenders in the minors, but a good-fielding CF with an above average bat (not for a CF but in general) is not that common. I feel like there are a lot more power-hitting weak fielding corner OFs, frankly (although the sox in particular may have a glut of good fielding CF prospects).
I do think that if Cameron gets played in LF, his value goes down, because I see his value as providing not only solid defense, but moving ellsbury to left, which should greatly increase his defense as well- therefore I think his contribution to the team is a lot more significant than Bay’s contribution would be. As a LF in a vacuum, I’d take Bay, but because Cameron has the ability to shore up 2 weak defensive spots while providing offense, I hold that he is much more valuable to the team at this point in time.
As far as Zobrist, his defense was great, but certainly it is overrated by UZR. We see it more on the negative side, but this is why the sample size for UZR is supposed to be several years. As you said, however, both Bay and Cameron are known quantities who provide approximately the same value year in and year out, so we can assume we know about what each will bring to the team.
WAR is certainly not a be-all-end-all stat, and can’t be taken alone (and neither can UZR or wOBA) but looking over a players career can give an approximation of what they will provide.
Now at Fenway, I expect to see Cameron’s UZR drop- but still playing good defense. And I expect to see his offense improve with the monster.
I still hold strong to my point based on the added value he can provide our team in 2 positions- our offense, which was plenty strong last year, has already been bolstered by adding in Martinez the full year and Scutaro at short so we can afford to give up a little offensive production if it can provide that amount of defensive value.
sox fever
We Are Going In The Wrong Direction – OLDER – And A 37 Yr Old Centerfielder Is Not Exactly Ideal , I Don’t Care What Kind Of Roids , I Mean Shape , He Is In .
Dude, you need to change your text settings
This Constant Capitalization Kinda Makes You Seem….CRAZED.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
You also don't seem to care
That he’s good at defense and offense.
So…I’m not sure what you do care about.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently, Ben Buchanan
He cares only about dudes born in the 80s and constant capitalization.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
SOX FEVER!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
"But in my mind, WAR value – or what "actually happened to happen" – is different than a player’s value to a team, which is based on the likelihood of repeating or sustaining success going forward."
OK, but that’s not what WAR was trying to measure.
This is kind of a strawman argument, is all.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 16, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols
Is simply the best player in baseball. Ben Zobrist had a fantastic season, no doubt, but he wasn’t the player Pujols was last year. I mean the man OPSd 1.101 and had walked almost twice as much as he struck out (1.8 BB/K).
by Gnick on Dec 16, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Then we agree WAR is not a good indicator of future success?
Then can we stop citing it to compare the relative value two completely different players will bring to the team?
Manny ain't the only bad man.
He was, but he was injured walking to see the depth chart
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
terrible
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Lowell Trade
Let’s not panic about 3B just yet. Right now Lowell is our starter at the hot corner. If and when the trade to Texas goes through, we will have our new third baseman (or first baseman) within 24 hours. The only reason we haven’t signed Beltre or traded for somebody else is because we can’t take the risk of bringing someone on, only to find out that the trade fell through.
Theo has something lined up. Once Lowell is gone, we’ll sort everything out, just be patient.
Why is that?
we were eating almost the whole contract. We can make the move with or without Lowell.
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Roster moves require space.
Trades that involve equal numbers of players on the 25-man roster (plus minor leaguers) are relatively straightforward, but signing a FA if you don’t have room on the roster is kind of a challenge.
Exactly.
@#$%in’ get me Adrian Beltre right now. NOW. We’re eating three quarters of the contract…who cares about the roster spot. The guy (Lowell) can still hit and can still catch the ball, so as far as I’m concerned he can be infield/DH insurance as well.
Christ, would it kill Theo to do one @#$%ing thing this off season that doesn’t want to make me start drinking at 10am?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Like there is something wrong with that?
Miguel Cabrera IS the solution to our problems.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Well...no. There's not.
But I still don’t like how shit is going down.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
The Sox wouldn't do that to Lowell
We owe it to him to find him a starting job, rather than get a new 3B/1B and worry about Lowell later. In the latter scenario, we could be stuck with him riding the bench, which would make Mikey sad :(
no we would do that
if he was untradeable. With all the money they’re spending this year, I don’t think they’ll let nostalgia get in the way. I think if he ended up a bench player, he probably would get more playing time than most bench players, but they’d take a better option if there is one.
Wait....I thought Mr. Larceny
was a pitcher?
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
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