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Rosenthal: No Jason Bay? Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron Instead

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports writes that if the Red Sox are out on Jason Bay, they'll turn their focus to either Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron. His sources conflict a tad there:

Some rival executives insist free agent Matt Holliday is the Sox's preferred target. Other sources, however, say the Red Sox will shun Holliday in favor of building a more athletic, defensive-oriented club.

Adrian Beltre at third base. Mike Cameron in left field. And perhaps a starting pitcher to further enhance the Red Sox's quest for better run prevention.

[...]

Beltre would appear the logical replacement at third for Mike Lowell, whose trade to the Rangers could become official next week. Cameron, who turns 37 on Jan. 8, would sign a short-term deal, leaving the Red Sox flexible enough to pursue a left fielder in next year's free-agent class, Carl Crawford or even Jayson Werth.

Neither Beltre nor Cameron is Holliday — or, for that matter, Bay. Still, both hit for power, and their overall value to the Red Sox might be greater than Holliday's if one combines their offense, defense and base-running — along with their respective price tags.

Cameron works -- a whole lot better than Matt Holliday, in my opinion.

Star-divide

Cameron would be a perfect player for this "bridge" that Theo Epstein is building and escorting every Red Sox fan over. He's going to be 37 next season, which means the Sox wouldn't give him a contract for any more than two years. If a Ryan Kalish or a Josh Reddick (or even a Ryan Westmoreland if he quickly jumps up the system) is ready by then, it's a perfect transition. Or if Theo tries to sign Carl Crawford next season, it'll still be a good one-year stopgap.

Cameron is a great defender who shouldn't have too many troubles in left field. He also brings a power bat to the Sox's lineup; he's good for at least 25 home runs in Friendly Fenway full time.

The Sox could move Jacoby Ellsbury to left field and play Cameron in center field, but I'm not sure Terry Francona will want to do that to Ellsbury. Perhaps if Ellsbury's defense really is a problem midseason they would make a switch, but I'm not 100 percent sure Ellsbury would be moved if Cameron is signed.

If Bay is out, this is what I want as a Sox fan. Cameron, Ellsbury and J.D. Drew in the outfield would be fantastic (Cameron in center a little better than Ells, but still good). Offensively, Cameron won't hit 36 home runs like Bay, but he's not going to struggle either. Jeremy Hermida will be a solid corner outfield backup as well.

Sign Cameron. Trade Mike Lowell (officially). Sign Adrian Beltre. This is what I want if Bay really is no longer coming back.

0 recs  |  Comment 176 comments |

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Dear Mr. Bay,

Regarding your communication from Saturday, 12.12.09 about being “ready to move on from the Red Sox” (http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=47373630). Please don’t be troubled on our count, as the feeling is more than mutual. While we have enjoyed seeing you bat from August to October 2008, and April-Mid May followed by July-September, we’ve decided to see other people.

Hope you enjoy slugging .405 at CitiField!

Love,
Red Sox Nation

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:31 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I think Bay will hit well for the Mets

Bay’s numbers weren’t inflated by Fenway. Bay hit 21 of 36 HR on the road. He slugged .531 at Fenway and .542 in away games. The problem with Bay isn’t his bat, it’s his glove.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

How long have you been out on Holliday, Randy?

I don’t remember seeing stuff like that from you before.

I think we really need that legit bat in our lineup if we’re gonna do things like sign Adrian Beltre. Sure, we scored a ton of runs last year, but add in Mike Cameron and you’re really relying on Martinez (spending a ton of games at catcher) and Drew to do a lot for this team offensively.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 7:43 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

+1

Beltre and his .304 OBP will be the death knell to many rallies.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Because naturally

his 2009 is the end of his career. Right ,2004 Mike Lowell?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

2005, even

Or, for that matter, 2006 Mark Buehrle.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd love to see Beltre have a career resurgence.

But it’s a pretty big gamble to commit tens of millions on the hope that he can turn his career around.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

His defense didn't suffer

And thus he’ll be worth anything under what Figgins received. The fact that he’s a dead pull hitter means he’ll at least be helped by Fenway. There’s nothing in his history to show he’ll suddenly crap out completely, especially at 31.

Any more than Figgins then I’m with you, but up to that, it’s a great bet.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

History

In eleven major league seasons, he’s had an OBP worse than .310 five times. That’s pretty bad.

I also have reservations about his age. If I recall correctly, he signed at “14.”

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Sox Fever

Yes, Beltre Is Probably 2 – 3 Years Older Than His 31 .

by Sox Fever on Dec 14, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Lowell

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

the GIDP king was a huge rally killer

Frankly, Tommy, Beltre’s career .327 OBP is terrible. He needs to learn to take a walk- but the red sox are the right lineup to learn to do that in. Hopefully being around so many patient batters will inspire him. If not, it’s not crippling.

You can’t look at the .304 because he was injured. He hit horribly and the fact is, injured players tend to walk less- blame frustration or whatever, that’s what I’ve seen. It was his lowest career walk rate in a terrible year at bat.

To be honest, I anticipate his bat being a dropoff from Lowell’s, particularly in taking walks (though Lowell was pretty awful at that last year), but not a significant one. And he should save enough runs that he should way more than make up for it. I don’t think a move like Beltre is anything but positive for the club.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

so that was unclear

because I responded to Randy but it was really generally more to tommy and Ben. Oooops.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

When healthy

Beltre puts up similar BB% numbers as Lowell. So it’s a wash there. While Lowell’s offense should decline with age, Beltre should (hopefully) hit better in Fenway.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup, Lowell hit into 24 DPs last year

But Beltre hit into 19.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah that's true

not that he’s not going to stop rallies, but that he’s not really a downgrade from lowell in that regard

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

SInce 2005

.303
.328
.319
.327
.304

That is ugly. His career OBP is .325. Take out his juicy 2004 numbers and he’s probably closer to .318.

And I think it’s pretty rare for a guy to become significantly more patient at this point in his career. Figgins would seem to be an exception.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah it is rare

but I can see that Seattle’s not exactly the place that will inspire you to do that- team average .314 OBP in 2009, .318 in 2008. A lineup of patient hitters could well help guide him.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

2008 Away numbers:

.292/.349/.512/.862

2007: .288/.320/.538/.858

2006: .283/.343/.462/.805

If we assume that Beltre as a dead pull hitter will not miraculously be improved over his away numbers but simply maintain, and if we assume he won’t magically lose his defensive ability, he will be worth infinitely more than the 8-9m we’re likely to pay him a season.

We are never going to sign or trade for a major player like Gonzalez, it’s not how we work. Theo works by trying to get players with at least some major abnormality at every position instead of spending on excellence. All things considered, Beltre is a far, far better choice for 8/9 per than Lowell’s corpse was or Lugo/Renteria/No-upside Scutaro for 6m.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

you really should stop hating on scutaro

he’s gonna be perfectly decent for us. his advanced stats last year are pretty eye opening. basically he’s first or around first in the AL in several things, like contact and patience.

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Are you sure he can hit in the AL?

He sure couldn’t with Oakland, outside of 80 good July ABs.

If he were a 12-15m a year guy for 3-4 years I’d be all for it, but for 20 over at least 6, we need a guarantee that he can produce at .950+.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no NL/AL divide on hitting

Pitching in the AL is harder because line-ups are deeper due to the DH. Holliday is a very good hitter. He is a MUCH better hitter than Beltre.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

No he didn't

Holliday had a .368 wOBA in an awful line-up, hitting in a pitcher’s park. Reimold had a .365 wOBA in a decent line-up, hitting in a favorable park for hitters. By the way, both hit better than Beltre.

Holliday had a bad April, and then hit well for Oakland:

.286 wOBA – April
.389 wOBA – May
.364 wOBA – JUne
.421 wOBA – July

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Tell me

Who is suggesting paying Adrian Beltre $18-20m a season?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

No one is suggesting paying Holliday $18-20 million

All I am suggesting Holliday is a very good player.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions  

For $18-20m

We need to be 100% sure, and he simply wasn’t good for most of his tenure in Oakland. And, the AL West was a bad pitching division for the first half of ’09.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

He had a mechanical issue with his swing in the beginning of the year

he fixed it, and started hitting well before he left Oakland.

I still don’t think he’s the number 1 option, but it’s not because he magically won’t be able to hit AL pitchers.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Let's just save the money

And go after Carl Crawford (hopefully) next season.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

But why?

Why do we need a speedster in the smallest field in modern baseball? Especially when he can’t even hit .800.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm talking the total package

Yeah, he’s fast, but I don’t care about his outfield speed. I care about what he does with the bat because we know he can play defense — make reads, get jumps, etc.

I just don’t think Holliday would mesh with this team. That’s just a gut feeling. I’d still probably take Bay over Crawford, too.

I don’t know … my head is going to explode, I think.

…3…2…1…BOOM.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

But we know he has a career .772 OPS

Which is completely unacceptable for LF at Fenway for any type of money. We have the privilege of hiding a crappy defensive player.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, can't answer

Head exploded.

:)

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Dec 13, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Not a fan.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

That's $120-140m

for some hope. He’s a player who has either been in the greatest hitter’s park, worst division or both for his entire career except during his time in the AL. It seems just a little fishy that the only time he forgot how to hit was his time in the division. Not to mention a division that is far easier than our own.

Again, for $18-20m over 6-7 years, that’s a pretty big gamble.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, who says Holliday going to get 6-7 years at $18-20 million?

Beltre is looking for 5 years/$65 million.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

And Bay is looking for 6/108

Do you think he’s getting anywhere near that? Slappy was looking for 10/350. Teixeira was looking for 10/225.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

It was.

Thanks, Tommy

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Because

As skeptical I am about the contracts Theo has given out, I see no way he eclipses Figgins’ deal. Not with the relative lack of suitors, and coming off of the down year.

I’m not assuming Holliday gets $18-20m because that’s what he’s asking, it’s because players (theoretically) capable of .950+ get 18-20m. Do we think he’s going to be substantially underpaid compared to Teixeira?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

?

The AL West was the best run prevention division in the AL last year. Can you point me to a link that says it was a bad pitching division in the first half of the year? As Drugs posts above, Holliday, after April, had a wOBA that was at the same level as Mark Tiexeira. Overall, he had an OPS+ of 120 (even with April) in the worst hitter’s park in the AL. Add to that marginally plus defense and you are talking about a player who is worth a lot.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Look at the pitching stats for the first half of '09

Angels were 27th, Rangers were in the 20s, only Seattle was good being top 5. Oakland being 10 or so doesn’t mean a damn thing. And, mind, he was awful against the Mariners as the only decent pitching team he faced.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Go Nuts With Addition

1st half ERAs
ALWest-4.27
ALEast-4.42

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

How many times

Did Holliday hit against Oakland again?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm struggling

to see why Holliday is an acceptable hitter because the Mariners alone were a top pitching team, even though he got handled by them during his time in the AL. The other 2 divisional teams he faced were 20th and 27th.

I’m saying it’s a question mark for the money he will receive.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

or the fact that Sox

hitters face the Os 18 times a year, and they are the WORST pitching team in the AL. Take the Sox out of the East (Holliday would not hit against the Sox) and it is not a great pitching division.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Only 25% of his at bats in Oakland were against the AL West. Here.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

So he wasn't good

against the AL Central or East either? Not convinced. Once again, we are talking about gigantic money here, not a “paltry” sum like $12-15m a year.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

You pointed to weak pitching in the West

It’s fair to point out that he barely faced the weaker pitchers.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Correct, it does

But it also shows he can’t hit good AL pitching. Like, for example, the division in which we play a majority of our games.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

the AL West

has lower average FIP and ERA than the East both in the first half and overall. Next.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

.814 OPS in June

isn’t slightly concerning?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

.364 wOBA, .372 OBP

Nope

Power went down while playing 15 games in the cavernous colloseum and 3 in Petco.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

no

since he OPSed 120+ overall for As (including all the “bad” months).

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

That .368 woba

Puts him with Nelson Cruz and Russell Branyan.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

So ...

A somewhat down month for Holliday = Branyan’s best year ever.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Neither player--Branyan or Holliday--will get $18 million

And, if you think Branyan = Holliday, you’re crazy.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Obviously

Which is why I compared Holliday, the $18m man at least, to Nelson Freaking Cruz and Branyan.

Do we really think Teixira signs 8/180 and Holliday earns $5m less per year? The economy sucks, but that would shock me.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Speaking of Mark Teixeira

.738 OPS in April
.867 OPS in July

Tex played in perhaps the biggest hitter’s park in the AL, Holliday played in perhaps the biggest pitcher’s park in the AL.

Can Tex not hit in the AL?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Had Teixeira

raked for several seasons in the AL prior?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

yes

and he was worse in the NL…

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

My point stands.

If you’re going to base some guy’s ability to hit off of 2 months, so am I.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there any established evidence of their being a significant gap in batting numbers between the NL and the AL?

For pitchers it’s obvious: They have to face one more hitter. Taking away a free out is big.

For hitters, it’s basically superstition.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

not a superstition

just false. Studies have been done. There is a difference on average but it is small.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

no.

but you seemed to be arguing that hitters are much better in the NL (eg Holliday). All the actual data suggests the (hitting) difference is small…

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

My fundamental point is

Holliday wasn’t very good in the AL, and he’s going to sign a monster contract. If he didn’t have an absolutely massive home vs. away split from hitting in a huge hitter’s park in the NL often in the worst division in the NL, I wouldn’t be as concerned.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

check his road split

in 07, and also consider that Petco and Chavez Ravine are 2 of the 5 worse offense parks in baseball (where 36 of the road games where played).

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

My point is

That Holliday has been very good in the MLB and there’s no established evidence saying that a team should look at league-specific numbers when it comes to hitters. You’re using a small sample size when a large one is available, differentiating between the two using a variable that has not been shown to be statistically relevant.

It’s like saying Holliday is bad when wearing Red jerseys. Well shit, we better phase out those alternates!

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

For the money we're giving him

I really hope you’re right. But if he’s only good vs. great, then we’re in deep trouble for many years.

Either way, I hope he picks up how to hit on the road consistently awfully quick, because we all know we win at home. On the road… not so much.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

How in trouble?

Say he’s only worth the market equivalent (not WAR) of a 14 million dollar player. And we pay him 18 million.

Then we’re out $4 million a year.

And that’s a BIG if.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

As long as he maintains that

Until he’s 36 or 37.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Between diff. comments on this site

it seems like people expect him to sign for JD Drew money. If Bay actually received a 5th year as the twitter report said, that’s 5/75 at least, probably 5/80. Holliday is easily the more desirable player on the market.

If we can get him for 5/80 I would be thrilled.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

6/120 seems about right to me.

Without discussing whether he’s “worth” it, I think he’ll get it.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

5/80 to 5/90 is my expectation.

5/90 is much more likely. But the market just isn’t huge. We’ve only got a couple real competitors that anyone’s heard of.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah

But then there’s Omar. Silly, silly Omar, screwing up everyone else.

We can agree there’s no way he signs for under what Bay gets, correct?

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I dunno.

If Bay gets overpayed massively by a joke GM, it’s possible.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Basically, Boras will say

“Well the Mets gave Bay a ton!”

and everyone else will say

“Are you comparing me to OMAR MINAYA?!”

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

You forgot the Mystery Team

Offering him 10/250! The same one who was going to give Drew 5/100.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Boras' act is getting too old and well known to keep working.

He won on Tex because the Yankees were there to bail him out. If they’re not this year, he’s fucked.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Something like that.

And he was on about the 9th year and 23 million.

And we left.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

"Evil will always triumph

over good, because good is dumb."

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions  

HA HA HA HA HA.....
"Well the Mets gave Bay a ton!"

and everyone else will say

"Are you comparing me to OMAR MINAYA?!"

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 9:42 AM EST up reply actions  

I am all for phasing out the Friday Fail Hat.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

As far as home/away is concerned

Well it’s a good thing he’s coming to Fenway then!

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

We don't need additional help at home

We desperately do need help away.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Away where?

New Yankee Wind Tunnel?
Arlington Bandbox?
We’re not playing our big games in Petco or LA (Well, Anaheim, but that’s a pretty average park)

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

The same away

Where we hit .107 OPS points lower in ’09.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, but again, the big games

The playoff games
Will be in parks he CAN hit in even if he IS a product of hitters parks.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

.368 woba was Holliday's AL season

It’s ridiculous to offer either anywhere near that money.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

no, not really

his park adjusted numbers are better than that.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

No more so than ...

Beltre’s career .179 AVG/.299 OBP/.232 SLG (.531 OPS) at Fenway (16 games).

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Why are we comparing

Beltre and Holliday in any possible way? They’re completely different cases.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he will,

but we’re not going to pay him $18-20m a year. For what we’re paying Beltre, even his last few seasons would be worth it given the glove. Holliday needs to mash to make it worth the ridiculous contract he will sign.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Both players have the same agent

They’ll both look for big money.

The one thing I agree about is the Sox shouldn’t overpay for any player.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

what are you basing "worth" on

because by WAR Holliday is worth what Teixiera is…

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

For the hell of it

I thought ol’ Adrian was tailor made for Fenway. That’s one of the selling points—right? BTW, Lowell is a dead pull hitter. With the Sox, he was better on the road some years.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

True

One is a guy who hasn’t proven he can hit in the AL.

The other is Matt Holliday.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Compared to Bay's June/July

I would welcome a .814 OPS down month.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

RE:

I’ve never really been “in” on Holliday. I’ve always been a Bay over Holliday guy. As bad as Bay’s defense is, I would still take everything he brings to the team over Holliday.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I just have a bad feeling about Holliday

I’ve never really been impressed with him. I like how Bay has gelled with the team. Bay’s defense sucks, but he could slide over to DH soon, so another year w/ Bay in LF wouldn’t be the worse thing in the world, IMO.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Bay a lot at Fenway

But he’s just not worth the contract he wants. Not as a LF and not as a RF. I don’t think Holliday is either. The more I think about it, the more I love the Cameron idea.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree on all of that.

Yes.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

i'd really like to save the DH spot

and not have it be tied to jason bay. why not get players who can field?

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:49 AM EST up reply actions  

I have the exact opposite feeling.
I just have a bad feeling about Holliday

Man, I get the feeling the Holliday would be awesome with the Sox. And I’ve always been sorta meh about Bay.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I like Holliday better than Cameron as a player

But I think the point that we can probably get Cameron for one year gives us a lot more flexibility for the future, and personally I’d much prefer to have spots to bring up the young promising guys. Depending of course on Holliday’s contract. If Bay ends up getting a significantly better deal than we offered, Holliday is going to become more expensive than I think is worth.

If the demand for him does drop enough that he’s not absurdly expensive, Holliday would be my favorite, but I’m guessing that a year of Cameron is probably the best long-term for the team. Plus that defense all around the field just sounds amazing.

It is a good point about Martinez. If Beltre is there, I’d be surprised to see Youk moving over to third with any regularity- perhaps the catcher rotation could be generally against lefties Martinez DH’s, Tek catches, and Ortiz sits? Seems to play to everyone’s strengths. Though he isn’t the bat Bay was, Cameron is still a good hitter who will provide some power- even though he K’s an astronomical amount. He’s also strongest against lefties, so if we were doing the catcher rotation I suggested, he would be better when Tek’s questionable bat was in the lineup.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Cameron will want at least two years

Older players don’t like to go year-to-year looking for work.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Though at 37 he'll have trouble getting that guaranteed

maybe a mutual option for a second year with no buyout so if we don’t want him he’s not too expensive. Honestly, I’d be happy with 2 years as I’m not 100% sure Kalish will be ready for full-time MLB action in the beginning of 2011.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Holliday was unlucky in Oakland

He has a career .356 BABIP

He was at .318 in Oakland.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions  

wow

nice career BABIP…

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I would assume

Coors’ expansive OF only helped that, while Oakland’s expansive foul ground hurt it.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

LF Cameron - No. CF Cameron - OK.

Platoon with Hermida – OK, but that means Cameron sits against righties when he’s not in for defense so he’s going to be on the bench an awful lot for a too-high priced player.

Unless we’re trading Jacoby, and I think we might, to put Cameron in CF, I can’t put him in LF against righties over Hermida.

Holliday’s bad month came in Oakland – the ball park with the biggest foul territory in all of MLB. I’d rather him over Bay (and I don’t mean Lyle).

by dsharp on Dec 12, 2009 10:31 PM EST reply actions  

Hermida/Cameron is fine..

add just a couple more pieces, Cameron, and Beltre, and I like this lineup.
Hermida/Cameron combination is not 18 million dollars worse than Bay.
He ain’t worth it. Looks ok. Hermida may be a huge upside surprise like Theo believes he can be. Keep Baldelli. Reddick, Drew, Ellsbury.. outfield will be FINE !!
Don’t need Holliday, don’t even need Bay !!

but now we DO need BELTRE.

by Snowball on Dec 12, 2009 10:40 PM EST reply actions  

Holliday is still my first choice at the right price but I’m starting to warm to the idea of Cameron. He doesn’t match Holliday’s offensive output but does improve the defense and provide greater roster flexibility. He patrols CF, Ellsbury slides to LF while Hermida is the 4th and final outfielder.

Beltre won’t provide the same offensive output if you slide Youkilis to the hot corner but he will improve the defense and has been 40 points better on the road the past two seasons. If he can be had for 3 years around $8M/year, I’m all for it.

Last, make a run at Halladay. Like most of us, I’m a terrible arm chair GM but something along the lines of Kotchman, Bowden, Kalish and Max Ramirez. If that’s not enough, try to sign Lackey. They can compete with an improved defense and rotation of Beckett, Lester, Hallday/Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz and Wakefield (6th man/pen).

by mg050369 on Dec 12, 2009 11:24 PM EST reply actions  

With all due respect

That wouldn’t even come close to Halladay. We’re talking more like Buchholz and at least Westmoreland or Kelly at this point, plus Kalish. Kotchman is nothing and both Max Ramirez and Bowden are nothing until they prove otherwise.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

eh

theres no way toronto’s gonna get that much. that sounds exactly like the deal we offered them last summer. they might get kelly, kalish and and pimental or doubront. i probably wouldn’t do that deal though.

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Toronto isn't even getting just Buchholz for Halladay anymore.

They missed their chance last trade deadline. It was an awful mistake, and they’re paying for it now. Riccardi payed for it with their job.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 13, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions  

i thought i read

phillie was offering Happ, Taylor and Brown? while im not familiar with prospects that much that would be a pretty big offer right?

by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 13, 2009 6:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Time will tell

I think my proposed offer will be as good as it gets for Toronto. Riccardi asked for the world in July and I feel they will get much less this off season.

by mg050369 on Dec 13, 2009 8:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Personally

I’d take two picks over Ramirez, Kotchman, Bowden and Kalish. They’re going to need at least one major player back to do the trade.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 13, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

They’ll require Kelly, Buchholz, Westmoreland, or more than one of the above.

by Gnick on Dec 13, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Just to be clear

I meant one of those guys, not all of them.

by Gnick on Dec 13, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I called the Beltre and Cameron combo earlier

MORE then happy with it.

Maybe somehow, we can lure Lackey too (not holding my breath).

by totheights on Dec 13, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions  

negative on lackey

not interested in paying a ton for an aging pitcher who’s been injured the past two years.

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:54 AM EST up reply actions  

And

despises Fenway. I just don’t like the guy and he is a good pitcher, but overhyped in a weak market

by wolf9309 on Dec 13, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Also negative on Lackey

…if for no other reason than as a fan I enjoy watching him lose.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Heh.

Me too.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

All the stats in the world...

…don’t trump the joy a fan feels in watching a wanker come up short. It’s why sports are awesome.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Trade ?

Cameron Is Too Old And Too Much Roids . Please !

by Sox Fever on Dec 13, 2009 2:04 AM EST reply actions  

Not too old to produce.

Or was he 10 years younger in ’08?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 13, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions  

That sounds like Lowell

Did anyone else notice at the beginning of the year he looked his age, and by the end he looked at least 55?

by wolf9309 on Dec 13, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Question

What do we do if Mike Lowell-to-Texas doesn’t work out?

“There are still things to go over,” Red Sox assistant general manager Ben Cherington said Saturday, according to the Boston newspaper…. “It would not be a complete surprise if it didn’t happen.”

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions  

We still grab Beltre

We were gonna be paying Lowell 3/4 of his salary, anyhow. Keeping him on the team shouldn’t stop us from getting the player we need.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Can someone explain to me why the Sox would eat $9 million on Lowell ...

But are reluctant to eat $3 million for Tek?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 13, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually expect him to hit much better when he only has to play 40 games a season. And by much better I mean a robust OPS of .700.

by Gnick on Dec 13, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

He can't hit and can't play defense

Other than that, he’s fine.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 13, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

also

I think I remember Pedroia said that he smells bad.

by wolf9309 on Dec 13, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

He was pretty good hitting in the first half

.826 OPS.

Maybe in limited playing time, he won’t wear down.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Having two bad defensive catchers isn't a good idea

I’d rather have a back-up catcher who could throw runners out.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 13, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

But I think (or hope) Tek will hit better in a more limited role.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 13, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Varitek is a magic totem of pitching success

Just having him on the club makes our pitchers a full point of era better. It’s a true fact.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 13, 2009 12:47 PM EST reply actions  

That's why he's our Captain.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

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